Jesús Luzardo

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 4.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	13	13	72	4.60	3.90	21.9%	7.9%	1.3	K 21.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.23
2025	27	MLBPHI	32	32	184	3.92	2.81	28.5%	7.5%	6.0
2026	28	MLBPHI	30	29	180	2.86	2.59	30.3%	7.1%	6.5
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	24	24	144	3.27	3.08	30.0%	7.3%	4.2
2028PROJ	30	MLBPHI	21	21	128	3.38	3.39	29.3%	7.6%	3.3
2029PROJ	31	MLBPHI	19	19	115	3.52	3.62	28.5%	8.0%	2.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 13.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 10.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.959First FA2028Options3

2027Ext / FA-deal$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo82

Form0.54 ERA (proj 3.27) · K 30.0% (proj 30.0%) · BB 3.3% (proj 7.3%) ▲ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsJames Paxton (age 29) · Patrick Corbin (age 29) · J.A. Happ (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6876vR 84

ERA3.27

FIP3.08

K%30.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%22.6%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.261

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+4.2	$48M	+$34M
Totals		$14M		$48M	+$34M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$32.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	19.0%	1.2%	17.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.42	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	28.0%	1.0%	27.0%	1.0%	1.42	1.52	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.0%	2.88	3.13	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	29.2%	6.8%	22.4%	1.6%	2.88	2.40	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	22.8%	6.4%	16.4%	2.3%	2.29	3.22	+1.5
2019	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	33.2%	5.0%	28.2%	2.3%	2.29	2.23	+2.2
2020	22	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	4.0%	4.12	4.10	+0.9
2020	22	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	3.6%	4.12	3.90	+1.1
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.2%	4.3%	6.59	5.06	+0.5
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	4.0%	6.59	5.01	+0.6
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	2.6%	3.21	3.12	+3.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.5%	3.21	3.06	+3.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.1%	3.58	3.37	+4.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.0%	3.58	3.28	+4.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+1.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.1%	4.60	3.90	+1.3
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+6.3
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+6.3
2025	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.1%	3.92	2.81	+6.0
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.9%	2.86	2.50	+6.8
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.9%	2.86	2.50	+6.8
2026	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	2.1%	2.86	2.59	+6.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	150	875	3634	996	286	102	90%	5.2	27.4%	7.9%	19.5%	2.8%	3.92	3.32	+22.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	24	24	144	608	182	44	13	100%	6.0	30.0%	7.3%	22.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.08	+4.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	128	540	158	41	13	100%	6.1	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.4%	3.28	3.29	+3.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	115	486	138	39	13	100%	6.1	28.5%	8.0%	20.6%	2.6%	3.42	3.52	+2.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	102	431	119	36	12	100%	6.0	27.7%	8.4%	19.4%	2.9%	3.63	3.78	+2.0
2031	33	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	87	367	99	32	12	100%	6.2	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	3.1%	3.89	4.06	+1.4
2032	34	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	69	291	76	27	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.3%	16.6%	3.4%	4.17	4.36	+0.8
2033	35	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	49	207	52	20	8	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	3.8%	4.49	4.70	+0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	128	540	158	41	14	100%	6.1	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.6%	3.38	3.39	+3.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	115	486	138	39	14	100%	6.1	28.5%	8.0%	20.6%	2.8%	3.52	3.62	+2.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	119	36	13	100%	6.0	27.7%	8.4%	19.4%	3.1%	3.74	3.89	+2.0
2031	33	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	87	367	99	32	12	100%	6.2	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	3.4%	4.02	4.19	+1.4
2032	34	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	69	291	76	27	11	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.3%	16.6%	3.7%	4.31	4.50	+0.8
2033	35	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	49	207	52	20	8	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	4.1%	4.64	4.85	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	242	1425	5957	1638	482	174	93%	5.5	27.5%	8.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.87	3.41	+34.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	836	230	68	24	93%	5.5	27.5%	8.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.87	3.41	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		220	200	1099	4548	1194	352	123	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.7%	18.5%	2.7%	3.73	3.35	+32.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	827	217	64	22	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.7%	18.5%	2.7%	3.73	3.35	+4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 9 IPFIP 2.38 → 2.71 (+0.33)K% 25.7% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.880	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.050	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.032	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 29 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.57 (+0.47)K% 19.3% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.26%	—	×0.880	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.941	×1.100	2.60%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 31 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.22 (+0.28)K% 26.0% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.880	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.11%	—	×1.050	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.119	×1.100	2.25%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Stockton Ports · 10 IPFIP 0.40 → 1.56 (+1.16)K% 50.0% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.770	38.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.114	×1.250	3.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 0.40 → 1.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMidland RockHounds · 79 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.16 (+0.79)K% 27.7% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.74%	—	×0.810	22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.81%	—	×1.100	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.922	×1.200	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANashville Sounds · 16 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.16 (+0.46)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.880	20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.988	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Stockton Ports · 15 IPFIP 0.41 → 1.47 (+1.06)K% 45.5% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.770	35.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.244	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.41 → 1.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Athletics · 25 IPFIP 1.41 → 2.42 (+1.01)K% 28.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.680	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.00%	—	×1.250	1.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.41 → 2.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Luzardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.2%	—	3.51	28.6%	20.6%	345	+0.43	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	64
Patrick Corbin L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	29	SP	2.30	30.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.298	4.13	23.6%	16.0%	439	+1.83	2.30	2,144	60
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	52
Doug Davis L 2005 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP	3.93	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	.272	4.16	17.2%	6.9%	542	+0.23	3.47	1,713	52
Mark Redman L 2003 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	18.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.58	12.0%	4.4%	536	+1.06	3.52	1,239	50
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	49
Wei-Yin Chen L 2014 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP	3.63	17.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.293	4.08	19.2%	14.1%	348	+0.45	3.63	1,065	46
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.12	1,805	44
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	42
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	41
Cliff Lee L 2008 · 2.70 FIP	29	SP	2.70	19.1%	3.7%	1.4%	.299	2.68	22.2%	18.5%	677	-0.02	2.49	2,146	41
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,841	40
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,226	40
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	40
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	37
C.J. Wilson L 2010 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	20.0%	10.9%	1.1%	.262	3.46	21.1%	12.0%	638	+0.04	2.55	1,430	35
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	659	35
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,798	34
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	21.2%	8.0%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	440	34
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	112	27.7%	8.1%	1.08	3.78
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*