Jesús Luzardo — OGILVIE

Jesús Luzardo P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 4.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6372vR 81

ERA3.04

FIP2.84

K%29.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%21.5%

ROS IP74

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 184 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL6065

CMD6065

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p9032.5%

p8929.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.269

CH+1.6 (20%)

SL+1.0 (37%)

SI (17%)

FB-5.0 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+2.3	$19M	+$14M
Totals		$4M		$19M	+$14M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$11.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	19.0%	1.2%	17.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.42	—
2017	19	ROK	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	28.0%	1.0%	27.0%	1.0%	1.42	1.52	—
2018	20	MIX	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.1%	2.88	3.20	—
2018	20	MIX	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	29.2%	6.8%	22.4%	1.6%	2.88	2.40	—
2019	21	MIX	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	22.8%	6.4%	16.4%	2.0%	2.29	3.10	+0.9
2019	21	MIX	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	33.2%	5.0%	28.2%	2.3%	2.29	2.23	+1.5
2020	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	3.8%	4.12	3.99	+0.4
2020	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	3.6%	4.12	3.90	+0.5
2021	23	MIX	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.2%	4.4%	6.59	5.09	+0.4
2021	23	MIX	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	4.0%	6.59	5.01	+0.6
2022	24	MIX	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	2.6%	3.21	3.13	+3.0
2022	24	MIX	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.5%	3.21	3.06	+3.1
2023	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.1%	3.58	3.38	+4.2
2023	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.0%	3.58	3.28	+4.4
2024	26	MIX	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.24	+0.5
2024	26	MIX	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.1%	4.60	3.90	+0.8
2025	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.77	+5.7
2025	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.1%	3.92	2.81	+5.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	19	19	110	463	136	35	9	100%	5.8	29.4%	7.6%	21.8%	1.9%	3.51	2.64	+3.6
ROS	28	MLB	PHI	12	12	74	311	90	23	7	100%	6.1	29.0%	7.6%	21.5%	2.2%	3.04	2.84	+1.7
ROS	28	MLB	PHI	12	12	74	312	91	24	7	100%	6.2	29.0%	7.6%	21.5%	2.3%	3.06	2.86	+1.7
2026 TOT	28	MLB	PHI	—	—	184	774	226	58	16	—	—	29.2%	7.6%	21.7%	2.1%	3.32	2.72	+5.8
2026 FULL	28	MLB	PHI	—	—	184	776	226	58	16	—	—	29.1%	7.5%	21.6%	2.1%	3.33	2.73	+5.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	158	668	189	52	16	100%	6.1	28.3%	7.8%	20.5%	2.4%	3.41	3.39	+3.7
2028	30	MLB	PHI	25	25	149	628	173	51	16	100%	5.9	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.60	+3.1
2029	31	MLB	PHI	23	23	139	586	157	49	17	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.4%	18.4%	2.8%	3.71	3.83	+2.5
2030	32	MLB	PHI	21	21	128	542	141	48	17	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.8%	17.2%	3.1%	3.93	4.08	+2.0
2031	33	MLB	PHI	20	20	118	497	125	46	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.3%	4.19	4.36	+1.4
2032	34	MLB	PHI	18	18	107	452	110	44	16	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.6%	4.48	4.67	+0.9
2033	35	MLB	PHI	16	16	96	406	95	42	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.0%	4.0%	4.79	5.00	+0.4
2034	36	MLB	PHI	14	14	85	359	80	39	16	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	4.4%	5.14	5.37	-0.3
2027	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	158	667	189	52	16	100%	6.1	28.3%	7.8%	20.5%	2.4%	3.43	3.41	+3.7
2028	30	MLB	PHI	25	25	149	629	174	51	17	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.6%	3.54	3.62	+3.1
2029	31	MLB	PHI	23	23	139	587	158	50	17	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.4%	18.4%	2.9%	3.74	3.86	+2.5
2030	32	MLB	PHI	21	21	128	540	141	48	17	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.8%	17.2%	3.1%	3.96	4.11	+1.9
2031	33	MLB	PHI	20	20	118	498	126	46	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.39	+1.4
2032	34	MLB	PHI	18	18	107	452	110	44	17	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.7%	4.52	4.71	+0.9
2033	35	MLB	PHI	16	16	96	405	95	42	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.0%	4.1%	4.83	5.04	+0.3
2034	36	MLB	PHI	14	14	85	359	80	39	16	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	4.4%	5.18	5.41	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			332	316	1859	7815	2072	664	236	95%	5.6	26.5%	8.5%	18.0%	3.0%	4.04	3.59	+39.3
/ 200 IP	—			36	34	200	841	223	71	25	95%	5.6	26.5%	8.5%	18.0%	3.0%	4.04	3.59	+4.2
Career	—			209	190	1030	4281	1109	335	119	91%	4.9	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	2.8%	3.86	3.43	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—			41	37	200	831	215	65	23	91%	4.9	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	2.8%	3.86	3.43	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Luzardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.45	28.2%	7.6%	2.5%	—	3.60	27.6%	19.5%	446	+0.15	—	—	—
Francisco Liriano L 2029 · 3.07 FIP	31	SP	3.07	26.5%	8.9%	2.0%	.289	4.65	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.58	3.07	650	46
James Paxton L 2026 · 2.48 FIP	28	SP	2.48	28.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	3.44	30.7%	23.1%	331	+0.96	2.48	924	45
Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.36 FIP	28	SP	3.36	26.2%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	3.91	20.9%	13.4%	345	+0.55	2.90	1,596	43
Cole Hamels L 2029 · 3.22 FIP	31	SP	3.22	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.02	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.80	3.22	893	42
Shota Imanaga L 2028 · 3.58 FIP	30	SP	3.58	25.1%	4.0%	3.8%	.262	4.76	22.1%	16.8%	253	+1.18	3.58	426	42
David Price L 2027 · 2.65 FIP	29	SP	2.65	25.3%	5.1%	1.9%	.288	3.56	24.2%	18.0%	481	+0.91	2.65	922	41
Scott Kazmir L 2029 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP	3.72	20.3%	7.7%	2.5%	.268	4.46	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.74	3.72	395	41
Jon Lester L 2029 · 2.74 FIP	31	SP	2.74	25.0%	5.7%	1.9%	.299	3.75	22.7%	15.3%	565	+1.01	2.74	1,144	40
Matthew Boyd L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	28	SP	4.31	30.2%	6.2%	5.4%	.301	4.41	21.2%	13.6%	152	+0.10	2.22	1,376	39
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SP	3.20	27.4%	7.0%	2.8%	.361	3.81	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.61	3.20	1,520	39
Steven Matz L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	3.99	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.22	3.19	1,199	39
Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	21.5%	6.4%	3.0%	.320	2.92	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.20	1,825	38
Wei-Yin Chen L 2028 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP	3.93	19.3%	5.2%	3.3%	.288	4.32	19.3%	13.2%	290	+0.39	3.68	549	37
Carlos Rodón L 2026 · 2.30 FIP	28	SP	2.30	34.6%	6.6%	2.4%	.259	3.41	28.8%	21.0%	417	+1.11	2.22	1,347	37
Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.79	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.21	2.82	845	37
Tyler Anderson L 2026 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP	3.93	22.3%	7.9%	3.1%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.49	3.14	1,288	36
Jordan Montgomery L 2026 · 3.48 FIP	28	SP	3.48	24.5%	7.7%	2.7%	.305	3.58	20.1%	14.0%	484	+0.10	3.10	1,142	36
Drew Pomeranz L 2026 · 3.69 FIP	28	SP	3.69	23.5%	9.3%	2.5%	.308	4.65	25.6%	14.1%	216	+0.96	2.29	773	36
Gio Gonzalez L 2027 · 2.90 FIP	29	SP	2.90	22.3%	8.7%	1.1%	.336	3.75	21.7%	12.8%	549	+0.85	2.90	864	35
Danny Duffy L 2026 · 3.40 FIP	28	SP	3.40	21.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.306	4.62	21.0%	11.8%	342	+1.22	3.29	915	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	127	26.2%	8.8%	1.19	3.98
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	7	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45