Jesús Luzardo — OGILVIE

Jesús Luzardo P Philadelphia Phillies

+3.3 WAR

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.3 · 2026

ERA3.66

FIP3.47

xFIP2.78

SIERA3.14

K%27.1%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%19.4%

IP173

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.3peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9032.7%

p7627.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+1.6 (23%)

SL+1.0 (36%)

SI (15%)

FB-5.0 (41%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	19.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.42	2.42	+0.7
2018	20	AAA	Nashville Sounds	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	23.7%	7.4%	2.0%	2.88	3.13	+2.7
2019	21	MLB	Oakland Athletics	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	22.8%	6.4%	2.2%	2.29	3.17	+1.1
2020	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	23.8%	6.5%	3.8%	4.12	3.98	+0.6
2021	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	21.1%	11.0%	4.4%	6.59	5.10	+0.3
2022	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	30.0%	8.8%	2.5%	3.21	3.07	+2.8
2023	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	28.1%	7.3%	3.0%	3.58	3.28	+4.1
2024	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	21.2%	8.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.09	+0.8
2025	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	28.5%	7.5%	1.9%	3.92	2.69	+5.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	4	4	23	98	30	5	3	30.6%	5.1%	3.1%	7.94	2.84	+0.5
ROS	28	MLB	MIA	23	23	126	531	156	38	13	29.3%	7.2%	2.5%	3.17	2.91	+3.4
2026 Total	28	MLB	MIA	—	—	148	629	186	43	16	29.5%	6.8%	2.6%	3.90	2.90	+4.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	MIA	23	23	125	527	152	38	14	28.8%	7.2%	2.6%	3.44	3.37	+2.7
2028	30	MLB	MIA	19	19	104	440	124	32	12	28.3%	7.3%	2.6%	3.45	3.46	+2.2
2029	31	MLB	MIA	16	16	86	365	101	27	10	27.7%	7.5%	2.7%	3.52	3.56	+1.6
2030	32	MLB	MIA	13	13	71	301	88	21	8	29.1%	6.8%	2.8%	3.45	3.41	+1.3
2031	33	MLB	MIA	59	—	59	247	70	17	7	28.4%	7.0%	2.9%	3.50	3.54	+0.9
2032	34	MLB	MIA	48	—	48	202	56	15	6	27.7%	7.2%	3.0%	3.60	3.67	+0.7
2033	35	MLB	MIA	39	—	39	164	44	12	5	27.0%	7.4%	3.1%	3.74	3.83	+0.5
2034	36	MLB	MIA	31	—	31	132	35	10	4	26.2%	7.7%	3.2%	3.89	3.99	+0.3
2035	37	MLB	MIA	25	—	25	105	27	8	3	25.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.05	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			194	175	942	3916	1003	305	109	25.6%	7.8%	2.8%	4.00	3.46	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—			41	37	200	831	213	65	23	25.6%	7.8%	2.8%	4.00	3.46	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Luzardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.36	28.7%	7.7%	2.4%	—	3.45	28.4%	21.0%	315	+0.09	—	—	—
Scott Kazmir L 2029 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	20.3%	7.7%	2.4%	.268	4.46	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.76	3.70	395	49
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2028 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.34	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.17	3.02	240	48
Paul Oseguera L 2029 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP	3.85	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.60	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.75	3.85	162	48
Scott Diamond L 2027 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.45	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.33	3.45	316	47
Wade Miley L 2026 · 3.78 FIP	28	SP	3.78	17.7%	7.7%	2.2%	.305	4.22	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.44	3.34	1,167	46
Wei-Yin Chen L 2028 · 3.87 FIP	30	SP	3.87	19.3%	5.2%	3.2%	.288	4.35	19.3%	13.2%	290	+0.48	3.60	549	46
Cole Hamels L 2029 · 3.22 FIP	31	SP	3.22	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.09	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.87	3.22	893	45
Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.96 FIP	28	SP	3.96	19.1%	9.3%	2.4%	.283	3.82	18.7%	7.7%	76	-0.14	3.82	324	45
Francisco Liriano L 2029 · 3.00 FIP	31	SP	3.00	26.5%	8.9%	1.8%	.289	4.67	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.67	3.00	650	44
Chris Rusin L 2026 · 4.52 FIP	28	SP	4.52	13.5%	6.2%	3.2%	.331	3.39	20.1%	13.3%	224	-1.13	2.93	488	44
Jared Koenig L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP	4.05	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.30	23.7%	15.5%	187	-0.75	2.72	455	43
John Danks L 2028 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP	4.23	16.1%	7.2%	2.9%	.303	5.92	16.0%	5.0%	22	+1.69	4.23	200	43
Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	14.7%	6.9%	2.6%	.295	5.14	16.1%	8.0%	121	+0.97	4.17	368	43
Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	28	SP	3.89	13.6%	5.8%	2.2%	.301	3.33	17.6%	13.0%	260	-0.56	3.08	681	43
John Lannan L 2028 · 3.81 FIP	30	SP	3.81	10.6%	5.9%	1.6%	.354	4.85	8.2%	0.5%	132	+1.04	3.81	284	43
Cole Irvin L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	17.3%	4.5%	3.6%	.268	4.40	16.6%	10.9%	238	+0.19	3.36	1,067	43
Zack Dodson L 2023 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	10.8%	5.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	162	43
Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	11.8%	9.3%	1.6%	.278	4.19	14.3%	7.3%	423	+0.02	4.01	642	43
David Price L 2027 · 2.58 FIP	29	SP	2.58	25.3%	5.1%	1.8%	.288	3.59	24.2%	18.0%	481	+1.01	2.58	922	42
Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	21.5%	6.4%	3.0%	.320	2.89	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.86	2.29	1,749	42

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$11M	+3.3	$26M	+$15M
Totals		$11M		$26M	+$15M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$2032.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$32.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE