Jesús Luzardo — OGILVIE

Jesús Luzardo P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 4.7 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 157 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6876vR 84

ERA3.27

FIP3.08

K%30.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%22.6%

ROS IP157

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL6065

CMD6065

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.261

CH+1.6 (18%)

SL+1.0 (38%)

SI (17%)

FB-5.0 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Arb-3	$14M	+3.5	$35M	+$21M
Totals		$14M		$35M	+$21M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$32.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	19.0%	1.2%	17.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.42	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	28.0%	1.0%	27.0%	1.0%	1.42	1.52	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.0%	2.88	3.13	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	29.2%	6.8%	22.4%	1.6%	2.88	2.40	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	22.8%	6.4%	16.4%	2.3%	2.29	3.22	+1.1
2019	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	33.2%	5.0%	28.2%	2.3%	2.29	2.23	+1.8
2020	22	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	4.0%	4.12	4.10	+0.6
2020	22	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	3.6%	4.12	3.90	+0.7
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.2%	4.3%	6.59	5.06	-0.2
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	4.0%	6.59	5.01	-0.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	2.6%	3.21	3.12	+2.5
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.5%	3.21	3.06	+2.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.1%	3.58	3.37	+3.4
2023	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.0%	3.58	3.28	+3.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.1%	4.60	3.90	+0.9
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+5.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+5.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.1%	3.92	2.81	+4.9
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.9%	2.86	2.50	+5.6
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.9%	2.86	2.50	+5.6
2026	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	30	29	180	730	221	52	15	97%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	2.1%	2.86	2.59	+5.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	150	875	3634	996	286	102	90%	5.2	27.4%	7.9%	19.5%	2.8%	3.92	3.32	+17.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	157	663	199	48	15	100%	6.0	30.0%	7.3%	22.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.08	+3.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	148	624	183	47	15	100%	5.9	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.4%	3.28	3.29	+2.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	138	582	166	46	15	100%	6.0	28.5%	8.0%	20.6%	2.6%	3.42	3.52	+2.3
2030	32	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	128	538	149	45	15	100%	6.1	27.7%	8.4%	19.4%	2.9%	3.63	3.78	+1.7
2031	33	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	117	494	133	44	16	100%	5.8	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	3.1%	3.89	4.06	+1.2
2032	34	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	106	450	117	42	16	100%	5.9	26.0%	9.3%	16.6%	3.4%	4.17	4.36	+0.7
2033	35	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	96	404	101	40	15	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	3.8%	4.49	4.70	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	25	25	148	625	183	48	16	100%	5.9	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.6%	3.38	3.39	+2.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	23	23	138	583	166	46	16	100%	6.0	28.5%	8.0%	20.6%	2.8%	3.52	3.62	+2.3
2030	32	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	128	540	150	45	17	100%	6.1	27.7%	8.4%	19.4%	3.1%	3.74	3.89	+1.7
2031	33	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	117	494	133	44	17	100%	5.8	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	3.4%	4.02	4.19	+1.2
2032	34	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	106	448	116	42	17	100%	5.9	26.0%	9.3%	16.6%	3.7%	4.31	4.50	+0.7
2033	35	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	96	405	101	40	16	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	4.1%	4.64	4.85	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		289	272	1608	6726	1844	550	201	94%	5.6	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	3.0%	3.90	3.46	+28.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	837	229	68	25	94%	5.6	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	3.0%	3.90	3.46	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		220	200	1099	4548	1194	352	123	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.7%	18.5%	2.7%	3.73	3.35	+25.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	827	217	64	22	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.7%	18.5%	2.7%	3.73	3.35	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Luzardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.08	30.0%	7.3%	2.2%	—	3.52	28.5%	20.6%	413	+0.44	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	64
Patrick Corbin L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	29	SP	2.30	30.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.298	4.13	23.6%	16.0%	439	+1.83	2.30	2,144	60
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	52
Doug Davis L 2005 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP	3.93	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	.272	4.16	17.2%	6.9%	542	+0.23	3.47	1,713	52
Mark Redman L 2003 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	18.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.58	12.0%	4.4%	536	+1.06	3.52	1,239	50
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	49
Wei-Yin Chen L 2014 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP	3.63	17.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.293	4.08	19.2%	14.1%	348	+0.45	3.63	1,065	46
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.12	1,805	44
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	42
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	41
Cliff Lee L 2008 · 2.70 FIP	29	SP	2.70	19.1%	3.7%	1.4%	.299	2.68	22.2%	18.5%	677	-0.02	2.49	2,146	41
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,841	40
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,226	40
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	40
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	37
C.J. Wilson L 2010 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	20.0%	10.9%	1.1%	.262	3.46	21.1%	12.0%	638	+0.04	2.55	1,430	35
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	659	35
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,798	34
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	21.2%	8.0%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	440	34
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	126	27.6%	8.1%	1.09	3.79
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79