Jesús Luzardo — OGILVIE

Jesús Luzardo P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 4.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION179 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6573vR 81

ERA2.98

FIP2.77

K%29.9%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%22.7%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 195 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL6065

CMD6065

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9030.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.262

CH+1.6 (18%)

SL+1.0 (38%)

SI (17%)

FB-5.0 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.959 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$11.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	19.0%	1.2%	17.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.42	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	7	6	25	100	28	1	1	86%	3.6	28.0%	1.0%	27.0%	1.0%	1.42	1.52	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.0%	2.88	3.13	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	109	442	129	30	7	100%	4.8	29.2%	6.8%	22.4%	1.6%	2.88	2.40	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	22.8%	6.4%	16.4%	2.3%	2.29	3.22	+1.1
2019	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	9	55	220	73	11	5	53%	3.2	33.2%	5.0%	28.2%	2.3%	2.29	2.23	+1.8
2020	22	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	4.0%	4.12	4.10	+0.6
2020	22	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	12	9	59	248	59	16	9	75%	4.9	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	3.6%	4.12	3.90	+0.7
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.2%	4.3%	6.59	5.06	-0.2
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	26	124	572	124	62	23	79%	3.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	4.0%	6.59	5.01	-0.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	2.6%	3.21	3.12	+2.5
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	445	132	39	11	100%	5.3	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.5%	3.21	3.06	+2.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.1%	3.58	3.37	+3.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.1%	3.58	3.37	+3.4
2023	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	179	741	208	54	22	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	3.0%	3.58	3.28	+3.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.60	4.23	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	72	292	64	23	9	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.1%	4.60	3.90	+0.9
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+5.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.0%	3.92	2.73	+5.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	184	758	216	57	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	7.5%	21.0%	2.1%	3.92	2.81	+4.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			166	150	874	3631	996	286	102	90%	5.3	27.4%	7.9%	19.6%	2.8%	3.92	3.32	+17.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	179	727	221	52	15	100%	6.2	30.4%	7.2%	23.2%	1.9%	2.87	2.49	+5.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	179	727	221	52	15	100%	6.2	30.4%	7.2%	23.2%	1.9%	2.87	2.49	+5.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	PHI	29	29	179	727	221	52	15	100%	6.2	30.4%	7.2%	23.2%	2.1%	2.87	2.57	+5.4
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	PHI	29	29	179	727	221	52	15	100%	6.2	30.4%	7.2%	23.2%	2.1%	2.87	2.57	+5.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	3	3	16	68	20	5	2	100%	5.4	29.9%	7.3%	22.7%	2.3%	2.98	2.77	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	16	68	20	5	2	100%	5.3	29.9%	7.3%	22.7%	2.5%	3.07	2.86	+0.4
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	195	795	241	57	17	—	—	30.4%	7.2%	23.2%	2.1%	2.88	2.52	+6.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	195	823	241	57	17	—	—	29.3%	6.9%	22.4%	2.0%	2.89	2.61	+6.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	158	668	195	50	16	100%	6.1	29.2%	7.5%	21.7%	2.4%	3.30	3.28	+3.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	149	628	179	49	16	100%	5.9	28.5%	7.8%	20.7%	2.6%	3.41	3.48	+2.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	139	586	162	48	16	100%	6.0	27.7%	8.2%	19.6%	2.8%	3.59	3.71	+2.0
2030	32	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	128	542	146	46	17	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.6%	18.4%	3.1%	3.82	3.97	+1.4
2031	33	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	118	497	130	45	17	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.3%	4.08	4.25	+0.9
2032	34	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	107	452	114	43	16	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.5%	15.7%	3.6%	4.36	4.55	+0.4
2033	35	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	96	406	98	41	16	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.1%	14.2%	4.0%	4.68	4.89	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	26	26	158	667	195	50	17	100%	6.1	29.2%	7.5%	21.7%	2.6%	3.39	3.37	+3.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	25	25	149	629	179	49	17	100%	6.0	28.5%	7.8%	20.7%	2.8%	3.51	3.58	+2.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	23	23	139	587	163	48	18	100%	6.0	27.7%	8.2%	19.6%	3.0%	3.70	3.82	+2.0
2030	32	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	128	540	145	46	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.6%	18.4%	3.3%	3.94	4.09	+1.4
2031	33	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	118	498	130	45	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.6%	4.21	4.38	+0.9
2032	34	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	107	452	114	43	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.5%	15.7%	3.9%	4.50	4.69	+0.4
2033	35	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	96	405	98	41	17	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.1%	14.2%	4.3%	4.84	5.05	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	302	1785	7477	2040	613	226	95%	5.6	27.3%	8.2%	19.1%	3.0%	3.92	3.50	+30.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	838	229	69	25	95%	5.6	27.3%	8.2%	19.1%	3.0%	3.92	3.50	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		219	200	1098	4545	1194	352	123	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.74	3.35	+27.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	828	217	64	22	91%	5.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.74	3.35	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Luzardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.42	28.2%	7.6%	2.5%	—	3.48	28.5%	20.7%	446	+0.06	—	—	—
Jose Quintana L 2017 · 3.46 FIP	28	SP	3.46	26.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.292	4.02	20.9%	13.4%	345	+0.56	2.95	1,596	65
Chris Sale L 2017 · 2.27 FIP	28	SP	2.27	36.2%	5.1%	2.9%	.296	2.29	37.0%	31.3%	305	+0.02	1.56	1,561	64
Matthew Boyd L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	30.2%	6.2%	5.2%	.301	4.32	21.2%	13.6%	152	+0.15	2.22	1,440	62
James Paxton L 2017 · 2.46 FIP	28	SP	2.46	28.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	3.43	30.7%	23.1%	331	+0.97	2.46	924	60
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,579	58
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,220	57
Patrick Corbin L 2017 · 3.80 FIP	28	SP	3.80	21.5%	6.4%	3.1%	.320	2.97	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.30	1,829	52
Danny Duffy L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	28	SP	3.42	21.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.306	4.64	21.0%	11.8%	342	+1.22	3.29	915	51
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	861	50
Drew Pomeranz L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	23.5%	9.3%	2.6%	.308	4.62	25.6%	14.1%	216	+0.88	2.21	751	49
Carlos Rodón L 2021 · 2.32 FIP	28	SP	2.32	34.6%	6.6%	2.4%	.259	3.42	28.8%	21.0%	417	+1.10	2.21	1,371	49
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	47
Madison Bumgarner L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP	3.86	19.8%	7.3%	2.8%	.268	4.30	21.8%	16.5%	396	+0.44	2.80	1,257	46
Francisco Liriano L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	31	SP	3.14	26.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.289	4.64	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.50	3.14	650	46
Andrew Heaney L 2019 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	28.9%	7.1%	4.8%	.302	3.89	28.8%	22.0%	269	-0.30	3.19	1,197	44
Cole Irvin L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	17.3%	4.5%	3.7%	.268	4.41	16.5%	11.0%	238	+0.17	3.37	1,174	44
David Price L 2015 · 2.65 FIP	29	SP	2.65	25.3%	5.1%	1.9%	.288	3.63	24.2%	18.0%	481	+0.98	2.65	922	42
Cole Hamels L 2015 · 3.21 FIP	31	SP	3.21	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.05	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.84	3.21	893	42
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	42
Martín Pérez L 2019 · 4.39 FIP	28	SP	4.39	18.3%	9.0%	3.1%	.314	3.78	19.6%	11.4%	372	-0.61	3.11	1,570	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	133	27.3%	8.4%	1.14	3.79
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01