Dallas Keuchel

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 39 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	36	MIX2 levels	17	17	88	4.21	4.78	15.3%	8.2%	0.6	K 13.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.78
2025	37	AAAKC	7	7	36	3.53	3.52	19.2%	7.7%	—	K 16.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.74
2026	38	AAAOAK	7	7	25	6.48	6.38	17.2%	16.4%	—	K 14.8% · BB 14.7% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ	39	MLBOAK	1	1	6	4.97	5.41	13.8%	10.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ	40	MLBOAK	4	4	26	5.49	5.84	12.6%	11.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs17

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsJason Lane (age 38) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA4.97

FIP5.41

K%13.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.1

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	16	16	85	377	38	38	14	100%	5.3	10.1%	10.1%	0.0%	3.8%	5.27	5.62	-0.2
2012	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	16	16	85	377	38	38	14	100%	5.3	10.1%	10.1%	0.0%	3.7%	5.27	5.68	-0.3
2013	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	22	154	682	123	49	20	71%	5.0	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	3.0%	5.15	4.14	+2.3
2013	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	22	154	682	123	49	20	71%	5.0	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	2.9%	5.15	4.15	+2.3
2014	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	29	29	200	808	146	46	11	100%	6.9	18.1%	5.7%	12.4%	1.4%	2.92	3.06	+5.9
2014	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	29	29	200	808	146	46	11	100%	6.9	18.1%	5.7%	12.4%	1.4%	2.92	3.04	+6.0
2015	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	232	911	216	51	17	100%	7.0	23.7%	5.6%	18.1%	1.9%	2.48	2.86	+7.6
2015	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	232	911	216	51	17	100%	7.0	23.7%	5.6%	18.1%	1.9%	2.48	2.85	+7.6
2016	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	26	26	168	701	144	47	20	100%	6.5	20.5%	6.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.55	3.82	+3.2
2016	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	26	26	168	701	144	47	20	100%	6.5	20.5%	6.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.55	3.77	+3.3
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	149	596	128	48	15	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	2.6%	2.85	3.76	+2.9
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	149	596	128	48	15	100%	6.2	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.66	+3.1
2018	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	34	34	205	874	153	58	18	100%	6.0	17.5%	6.6%	10.9%	2.1%	3.74	3.62	+4.4
2018	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	34	34	205	874	153	58	18	100%	6.0	17.5%	6.6%	10.9%	2.1%	3.74	3.60	+4.5
2019	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	127	541	104	40	16	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.3%	3.55	4.31	+1.6
2019	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	127	541	104	40	16	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.0%	3.55	4.05	+2.0
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	11	11	63	257	42	17	2	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	0.8%	1.99	2.98	+1.9
2020	32	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	11	11	63	257	42	17	2	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	0.8%	1.99	2.99	+1.9
2021	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	30	162	720	95	58	25	94%	5.1	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	3.4%	5.28	4.88	+1.0
2021	33	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	30	162	720	95	58	25	94%	5.1	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	3.5%	5.28	5.01	+0.7
2022	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	96	444	84	42	12	100%	4.8	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	2.6%	6.94	4.29	+1.3
2022	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	96	444	84	42	12	100%	4.8	18.9%	9.5%	9.5%	2.7%	6.94	4.29	+1.3
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	70	304	53	30	6	75%	4.4	16.1%	9.5%	6.7%	2.1%	3.75	4.07	+1.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	70	304	53	30	6	75%	4.4	17.4%	9.9%	7.6%	2.0%	3.75	3.99	+1.2
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	88	367	56	30	13	100%	5.2	13.5%	7.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.21	4.78	+0.6
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	88	367	56	30	13	100%	5.2	13.5%	7.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.21	4.78	+0.6
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	88	367	56	30	13	100%	5.2	15.3%	8.2%	7.1%	3.5%	4.21	4.78	+0.6
2025	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	7	7	36	156	30	12	3	100%	5.1	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	2.1%	3.53	3.74	—
2025	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	7	7	36	156	30	12	3	100%	5.1	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	2.1%	3.53	3.74	—
2025	37	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	7	7	36	156	30	12	3	100%	5.1	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	1.9%	3.53	3.52	—
2026	38	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	7	7	25	116	20	19	5	100%	3.6	14.8%	14.7%	0.1%	4.7%	6.48	6.32	—
2026	38	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	7	7	25	116	20	19	5	100%	3.6	14.8%	14.7%	0.1%	4.7%	6.48	6.32	—
2026	38	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	7	7	25	116	20	19	5	100%	3.6	17.2%	16.4%	0.9%	4.3%	6.48	6.38	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			282	267	1642	6955	1254	504	175	95%	5.8	18.0%	7.2%	10.8%	2.5%	4.04	3.88	+30.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	OAK	1	1	6	25	3	3	1	100%	6.0	13.8%	10.4%	3.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	OAK	4	4	26	111	14	12	4	100%	6.6	12.6%	11.2%	1.4%	3.7%	5.49	5.84	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	26	110	14	12	4	100%	6.5	12.6%	11.2%	1.4%	3.7%	5.49	5.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	271	1669	7066	1268	516	179	95%	5.8	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	2.5%	4.06	3.90	+30.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	847	152	62	21	95%	5.8	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	2.5%	4.06	3.90	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		324	309	1858	7854	1403	582	202	95%	5.7	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	2.6%	3.97	3.94	+29.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	33	200	845	151	63	22	95%	5.7	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	2.6%	3.97	3.94	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 25 IPFIP 6.08 → 6.32 (+0.23)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.860	14.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.38%	—	×0.900	14.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.08 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 36 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.74 (+0.23)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.860	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.11%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 71 IPFIP 4.65 → 4.67 (+0.02)K% 15.6% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.860	13.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×0.900	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.142	×1.100	3.34%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 32 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.96 (+0.25)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.860	18.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.48%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 23 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.60 (+0.41)K% 24.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.880	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×1.050	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.957	×1.100	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Black · 12 IPFIP 0.74 → 1.78 (+1.05)K% 34.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.680	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.250	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.948	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.74 → 1.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 7 IPFIP 2.42 → 2.67 (+0.25)K% 12.9% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.810	10.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.100	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.900	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ARome Braves · 7 IPFIP 0.35 → 1.30 (+0.96)K% 39.1% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.740	28.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.180	5.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.851	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 0.35 → 1.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Dallas Keuchel (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.84	12.6%	1.4%	26	+0.43	—	—	—
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	45
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	34
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	122	17.8%	7.5%	0.99	4.08
Bob Ojeda ('80-'94, 22 WAR*)	9.4	135	19.1%*	8.5%*	0.97*	4.08*
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Denny Neagle ('03)	9.5	145	17.6%	7.4%	1.19	4.24
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Gavin Floyd ('16)	6.2	104	18.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.37
Wade Miley ('25)	8.8	146	18.2%	8.1%	1.01	4.09

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dallas Keuchel (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.84	12.6%	1.4%	26	+0.43	—	—	—
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	45
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	34
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	32

Dallas Keuchel

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps