Dallas Keuchel
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.0
WAR
Age 38
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA5.11
FIP4.65
xFIP4.83
SIERA5.13
K%17.9%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%9.0%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†3030
FB Velo
p1088.1
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
CH+1.9 (28%)
SI (57%)
CT-2.1 (15%)
FB-5.3 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 232 | 911 | 216 | 51 | 17 | 23.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 2.48 | 2.76 | +6.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 26 | 26 | 168 | 701 | 144 | 47 | 20 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 3.76 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 24 | 24 | 149 | 596 | 128 | 48 | 15 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 2.85 | 3.72 | +2.7 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 205 | 874 | 153 | 58 | 18 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 3.54 | +4.1 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 21 | 21 | 127 | 541 | 104 | 40 | 16 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.22 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 11 | 11 | 63 | 257 | 42 | 17 | 2 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 1.99 | 2.96 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 30 | 162 | 720 | 95 | 58 | 25 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.28 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 20 | 20 | 96 | 444 | 84 | 42 | 12 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 6.94 | 4.37 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 16 | 12 | 70 | 304 | 53 | 30 | 6 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 3.75 | 4.17 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 17 | 17 | 88 | 367 | 56 | 30 | 13 | 13.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 7 | 7 | 36 | 156 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 13.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 5.21 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 241 | 235 | 1394 | 5871 | 1081 | 439 | 143 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +23.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 155 | 63 | 21 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dallas Keuchel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 13.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 5.20 | 12.7% | 3.6% | 30 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 405 | 72 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 67 |
| Craig Breslow L 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.15 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 159 | 67 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 63 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.57 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 237 | 61 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.06 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.64 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.58 | 3.35 | 199 | 58 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 46 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 42 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 39 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 36 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 36 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 35 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2024 · 6.12 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.12 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.3% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 360 | 35 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 34 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 34 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 34 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 33 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 33 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 32 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 408 | 32 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.