Dallas Keuchel
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 38
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION175 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.83
FIP5.17
xFIP4.83
SIERA5.13
K%11.6%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%2.8%
IP175
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p1088.1
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
CH+1.9 (28%)
SI (57%)
CT-2.1 (15%)
FB-5.3 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 232 | 911 | 216 | 51 | 17 | 23.7% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 2.48 | 2.77 | +7.1 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 26 | 26 | 168 | 701 | 144 | 47 | 20 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 3.69 | +3.4 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 24 | 24 | 149 | 596 | 128 | 48 | 15 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 2.85 | 3.64 | +3.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 34 | 205 | 874 | 153 | 58 | 18 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 3.74 | 3.53 | +4.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 21 | 21 | 127 | 541 | 104 | 40 | 16 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 3.55 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 11 | 11 | 63 | 257 | 42 | 17 | 2 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 1.99 | 2.97 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 30 | 162 | 720 | 95 | 58 | 25 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 4.85 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 20 | 20 | 96 | 444 | 84 | 42 | 12 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 6.94 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 16 | 12 | 70 | 304 | 53 | 30 | 6 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 17 | 17 | 88 | 367 | 56 | 30 | 13 | 13.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 7 | 7 | 36 | 156 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | KC | 30 | 30 | 163 | 687 | 80 | 61 | 20 | 11.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 62 | 56 | 19 | 10.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 241 | 235 | 1394 | 5871 | 1081 | 439 | 143 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +25.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 155 | 63 | 21 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dallas Keuchel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 11.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.61 | 10.5% | 0.9% | 140 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Eric Stults L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 76 |
| Mark Buehrle L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.08 | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 199 | 71 |
| Barry Zito L 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 68 |
| Jason Lane L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 68 |
| Aaron Harang R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 41 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 39 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 38 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 36 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 36 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 30 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 30 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 23 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 19 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 18 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 17 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 16 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 16 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 14 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 14 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.68 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 172 | 14 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.