Robert Gasser — OGILVIE

Robert Gasser P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.34

FIP3.47

K%22.5%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL2050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SL+0.9 (33%)

SI (19%)

FB (53%)

CH-0.6 (11%)

CT-1.7 (3%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$9M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	15	54	14	2	1	100%	2.5	18.9%	4.6%	14.2%	3.1%	1.20	3.81	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	15	54	14	2	1	100%	2.5	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	1.9%	1.20	2.50	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	137	579	172	52	11	100%	5.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.7%	2.5%	3.94	3.73	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	137	579	172	52	11	100%	5.1	29.7%	9.0%	20.7%	1.9%	3.94	2.77	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	25	135	592	166	50	12	96%	5.2	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.5%	3.79	3.45	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	25	135	592	166	50	12	96%	5.2	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.5%	3.79	3.45	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	25	135	592	166	50	12	96%	5.2	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	2.0%	3.79	2.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	18.2%	3.9%	14.4%	4.1%	3.38	4.29	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	18.2%	3.9%	14.4%	4.1%	3.38	4.29	+0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	3.6%	3.38	3.92	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	23.0%	6.9%	16.1%	0.8%	2.47	2.45	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	23.0%	6.9%	16.1%	0.8%	2.47	2.45	+1.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	1.1%	2.47	2.62	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	24	125	540	108	34	17	96%	5.0	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.1%	3.96	3.96	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	25	24	118	511	125	37	15	96%	4.7	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	2.8%	4.19	3.59	+1.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	25	24	118	511	125	37	15	96%	4.7	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	2.8%	4.19	3.59	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIL	7	7	27	114	38	8	1	100%	3.8	33.3%	7.0%	26.3%	0.9%	3.38	1.66	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIL	18	17	91	397	87	29	14	94%	5.1	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.11	+0.9
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIL	18	17	91	397	87	29	14	94%	5.1	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.11	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	13	55	12	4	1	100%	6.6	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	2.6%	3.34	3.47	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	13	55	12	4	2	100%	6.5	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	2.8%	3.42	3.55	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	131	566	137	41	16	—	—	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	2.9%	4.11	3.58	+2.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	104	441	137	41	17	—	—	31.2%	9.2%	22.0%	3.7%	5.17	3.69	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	157	663	142	45	21	100%	6.0	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	3.1%	4.15	4.24	+1.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	633	132	45	21	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.1%	13.8%	3.3%	4.30	4.40	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	141	595	120	44	21	100%	6.1	20.1%	7.4%	12.8%	3.5%	4.48	4.61	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	131	555	108	43	20	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.7%	11.7%	3.7%	4.69	4.84	+0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	122	513	95	42	20	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	3.9%	4.93	5.09	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	149	629	135	43	20	100%	6.0	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.24	4.33	+1.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	142	600	125	42	20	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.1%	13.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.49	+0.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	134	566	114	42	21	100%	6.1	20.1%	7.4%	12.8%	3.6%	4.57	4.70	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	125	528	102	41	20	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.7%	11.7%	3.9%	4.79	4.94	+0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	115	486	90	39	20	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	138	804	3406	687	245	120	99%	5.8	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	3.5%	4.46	4.25	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	171	61	30	99%	5.8	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	3.5%	4.46	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		108	102	489	2080	475	160	53	94%	4.5	22.8%	7.7%	15.1%	2.6%	3.70	3.55	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	851	194	66	22	94%	4.5	22.8%	7.7%	15.1%	2.6%	3.70	3.55	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robert Gasser (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	21.1%	6.0%	2.6%	—	4.41	20.8%	13.8%	448	+0.53	—	—	—
Jake Dahlberg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	22.5%	5.0%	4.6%	.397	5.36	17.9%	10.2%	100	+1.03	3.11	226	68
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	65
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	64
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	63
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2016 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	15.2%	1.6%	3.5%	.241	3.33	23.2%	18.4%	392	-0.62	2.79	725	62
Jordan Montgomery L 2020 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	24.4%	4.7%	3.4%	.315	3.44	22.5%	16.2%	524	-0.06	3.11	1,180	61
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	60
Caleb Smith L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP	3.80	27.0%	9.5%	3.2%	.269	5.01	25.5%	14.7%	281	+1.21	3.31	784	60
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	20.5%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.59	19.5%	13.1%	216	+0.12	3.42	653	60
Jacques Pucheu L 2022 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP-	3.18	21.4%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	134	58
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	58
Grant Borne L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	14.5%	5.4%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	169	57
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	57
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	56
Erik Tolman L 2023 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	14.8%	9.7%	0.0%	.295	4.66	20.2%	4.9%	127	+1.58	3.08	147	56
Kenny Rosenberg L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP	4.81	20.6%	10.7%	3.8%	.246	4.99	19.7%	11.7%	272	+0.18	3.44	755	56
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	55
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	55
Brady Basso L 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	20.6%	7.0%	2.2%	.264	4.04	20.2%	14.3%	196	+0.57	2.24	306	55
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	143	20.3%	7.1%	1.28	4.35
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38