Robert Gasser

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	8	8	40	3.38	3.92	20.0%	4.2%	0.7	K 18.6% · BB 3.9% · FIP 4.27
2025	26	MIX4 levels	16	12	44	2.47	2.62	25.7%	8.4%	1.5	K 23.8% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.38
2026	27	MIX2 levels	28	27	136	3.77	3.50	24.4%	7.5%	3.1	K 23.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.50
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	14	14	81	3.87	4.05	22.0%	7.0%	1.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	12	12	72	4.15	4.29	21.4%	7.2%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIL	10	10	61	4.37	4.50	20.7%	7.5%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.181First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%51

xwOBA vs45

FB Velo27

Form1.67 ERA (proj 3.87) · K 23.8% (proj 22.0%) · BB 9.5% (proj 7.0%) · last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsRyan Bollinger (age 27) · Dylan Dodd (age 26) · John Lamb (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93102vR 110

ERA3.87

FIP4.05

K%22.0%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.181 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$23M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	15	54	14	2	1	100%	2.5	18.9%	4.6%	14.2%	3.1%	1.20	3.81	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	15	54	14	2	1	100%	2.5	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	1.9%	1.20	2.50	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	137	579	172	52	11	100%	5.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.7%	2.5%	3.94	3.73	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	137	579	172	52	11	100%	5.1	29.7%	9.0%	20.7%	1.9%	3.94	2.77	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	25	135	592	166	50	12	96%	5.2	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.5%	3.79	3.38	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	25	135	592	166	50	12	96%	5.2	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	2.0%	3.79	2.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	18.6%	3.9%	14.7%	4.1%	3.38	4.27	+0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	18.6%	3.9%	14.7%	4.1%	3.38	4.27	+0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	40	165	33	7	6	100%	5.0	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	3.6%	3.38	3.92	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	0.8%	2.47	2.38	+1.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	0.8%	2.47	2.38	+1.6
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	12	44	179	46	15	2	75%	2.7	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	1.1%	2.47	2.62	+1.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	136	577	141	43	16	96%	4.9	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.50	+3.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	136	577	141	43	16	96%	4.9	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.50	+3.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	136	577	141	43	16	96%	4.9	24.4%	7.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.77	3.50	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	27	143	606	124	40	18	96%	5.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.0%	3.59	3.84	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	14	14	81	342	75	24	10	100%	5.8	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.8%	3.87	4.05	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	75	318	68	23	9	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.07	4.21	+1.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	272	56	20	9	100%	5.9	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.1%	4.28	4.41	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	53	223	45	18	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.9%	12.1%	3.4%	4.50	4.64	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	53	224	47	17	8	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.5%	13.7%	3.6%	4.58	4.63	+0.5
2032	33	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	39	166	34	13	6	100%	5.6	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.91	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	65	22	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.15	4.29	+1.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	61	258	53	19	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.37	4.50	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	42	17	7	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.73	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	45	16	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	7.5%	13.7%	3.8%	4.68	4.73	+0.4
2032	33	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	37	156	32	12	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	4.1%	4.89	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	72	414	1750	361	126	58	99%	5.7	20.7%	7.2%	13.4%	3.3%	4.17	4.09	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	174	61	28	99%	5.7	20.7%	7.2%	13.4%	3.3%	4.17	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		111	105	507	2146	499	166	54	95%	4.6	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	2.5%	3.60	3.50	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	41	200	847	197	66	21	95%	4.6	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	2.5%	3.60	3.50	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 27 IPFIP 1.66 → 2.01 (+0.35)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×0.900	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.66 → 2.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 32 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.38 (+0.23)K% 27.7% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.860	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.76%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 12 IPFIP 6.08 → 7.23 (+1.15)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×0.900	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	7.84%	÷0.909	×1.100	9.49%

Result: FIP 6.08 → 7.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 135 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.38 (+0.46)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.04%	—	×0.860	24.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×0.900	7.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.905	×1.100	2.46%

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 90 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.78 (+1.15)K% 30.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.50%	—	×0.770	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.150	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.920	×1.250	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 26 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.49 (+0.42)K% 26.1% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.05%	—	×0.880	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.45%	—	×1.050	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷0.946	×1.100	0.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 20 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.87 (+0.87)K% 31.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.33%	—	×0.810	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.64%	—	×1.100	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.012	×1.200	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALake Elsinore Storm · 14 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.81 (+1.29)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.740	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×1.180	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.815	×1.300	3.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robert Gasser (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.39	20.8%	13.3%	193	+0.34	—	—	—
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	72
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	70
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	69
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	67
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	66
Wei-Yin Chen L 2013 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP	3.86	18.2%	6.5%	2.7%	.302	3.94	18.6%	13.9%	500	+0.08	3.63	1,065	65
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64
Justin Marks L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	19.1%	9.3%	2.3%	.283	3.83	18.7%	7.7%	76	-0.08	3.83	324	64
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	64
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	64
Brian Duensing L 2011 · 4.22 FIP	28	SP	4.22	16.2%	6.9%	2.9%	.327	3.64	16.3%	10.1%	224	-0.58	2.57	799	63
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	63
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	63
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	63
Eric Stults L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	28	SP	4.39	18.0%	6.6%	3.6%	.267	4.42	14.5%	4.7%	62	+0.03	3.50	773	63
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	63
Brent Suter L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	28	SP	4.15	19.8%	4.0%	4.0%	.275	3.15	24.1%	18.9%	123	-1.00	2.15	954	63
Jared Koenig L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.29	23.6%	15.8%	187	-0.77	2.79	475	62
Tommy Henry L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP	4.36	19.6%	10.2%	3.0%	.333	5.16	14.7%	5.5%	143	+0.80	4.36	676	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	64	20.9%	7.2%	1.22	4.08
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Tom House ('71-'78, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	17.3%*	7.8%*	1.25*	4.14*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Nabil Crismatt ('25)	1.1	70	20.6%	7.0%	1.15	3.71
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09