Robert Gasser
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 197 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8392vR 101
ERA3.46
FIP3.60
K%23.1%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
SL+0.9 (33%)
SI (19%)
FB (53%)
CH-0.6 (11%)
CT-1.7 (3%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 15 | 54 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 2.5 | 18.9% | 4.6% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 1.20 | 4.32 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 15 | 54 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 2.5 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 22.2% | 1.9% | 1.20 | 2.50 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 137 | 579 | 172 | 52 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 137 | 579 | 172 | 52 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 20.7% | 1.9% | 3.94 | 2.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 25 | 135 | 592 | 166 | 50 | 12 | 96% | 5.2 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 25 | 135 | 592 | 166 | 50 | 12 | 96% | 5.2 | 28.0% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 2.0% | 3.79 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 40 | 165 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 3.38 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 40 | 165 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.0% | 4.2% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 3.38 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 12 | 44 | 179 | 46 | 15 | 2 | 75% | 2.7 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 16.3% | 0.7% | 2.47 | 2.45 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 12 | 44 | 179 | 46 | 15 | 2 | 75% | 2.7 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 1.1% | 2.47 | 2.62 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 16 | 16 | 73 | 315 | 81 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 17.2% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.43 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 138 | 589 | 144 | 41 | 19 | — | — | 24.5% | 6.9% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 3.75 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 111 | 469 | 144 | 41 | 19 | — | — | 30.7% | 8.7% | 22.0% | 4.0% | 5.00 | 3.80 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 143 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 133 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 141 | 595 | 121 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 4.62 | 4.74 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 555 | 109 | 44 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.96 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 513 | 97 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 5.06 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 471 | 85 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.32 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 136 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 126 | 44 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 115 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 104 | 42 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 92 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.16 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 81 | 40 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 5.27 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 159 | 916 | 3875 | 782 | 293 | 141 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.36 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 846 | 171 | 64 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 94 | 444 | 1884 | 444 | 157 | 54 | 95% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 3.73 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 849 | 200 | 71 | 24 | 95% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robert Gasser (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.56 | 21.0% | 13.7% | 448 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Jake Dahlberg L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.22 | 22.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | .397 | 5.59 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.37 | 3.11 | 226 | 69 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.62 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 65 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 64 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.90 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.13 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 70 | +0.23 | 4.25 | 227 | 64 |
| Pete Hansen L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 437 | 64 |
| Ben Shields L 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.91 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 147 | 64 |
| Jordan Montgomery L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 24.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | .315 | 3.43 | 22.5% | 16.2% | 524 | -0.06 | 3.10 | 1,142 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 64 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 174 | 63 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.94 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | .241 | 3.49 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 392 | -0.45 | 2.87 | 725 | 63 |
| Caleb Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.81 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.91 | 25.5% | 14.7% | 281 | +1.10 | 3.30 | 784 | 60 |
| Kohl Drake L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 60 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 59 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 59 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.97 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 245 | 59 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 59 |
| Connor Prielipp L 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 184 | 59 |
| Garrett Crochet L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.83 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 448 | 58 |
| Jake Bennett L 2024 · 2.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 2.79 | 21.0% | 4.9% | 1.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 219 | 58 |
| Jacques Pucheu L 2024 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.21 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 134 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 138 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 1.39 | 4.57 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Mike Fiers ('20) | 6 | 153 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 1.50 | 4.17 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |