Tommy Henry — OGILVIE

Tommy Henry P Reno Aces

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.10

FIP5.27

K%15.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1016.7%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.385

SI (2%)

CU (28%)

CH (23%)

FB-1.0 (27%)

SL-1.6 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	23	23	116	493	135	53	24	100%	5.0	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	4.6%	5.21	5.25	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	23	23	116	493	135	53	24	100%	5.0	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	4.9%	5.21	4.84	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	679	139	65	21	100%	5.3	18.7%	9.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.22	4.65	+0.5
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	160	679	139	65	21	100%	5.3	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+1.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	110	472	86	41	15	95%	5.3	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.56	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	110	472	86	41	15	95%	5.3	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.56	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	110	472	86	41	15	95%	5.3	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.42	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.98	4.40	+0.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.98	4.40	+0.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	22.1%	11.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.30	+1.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	16.8%	7.5%	9.3%	3.4%	7.67	4.49	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	16.8%	7.5%	9.3%	3.4%	7.67	4.49	+0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.6%	7.67	4.38	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	32	181	794	138	72	34	86%	4.9	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	4.3%	5.07	5.21	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	22	19	89	430	71	50	18	86%	4.0	12.8%	10.8%	2.1%	4.4%	7.48	5.79	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	22	19	89	430	71	50	18	86%	4.0	12.8%	10.8%	2.1%	4.4%	7.48	5.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A RAW	ARI	1	1	3	13	5	0	1	100%	2.7	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	6.75	4.07	—
2026	29	A+ RAW	ARI	1	1	2	16	4	2	1	100%	2.3	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	6.2%	23.14	6.00	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	ARI	20	17	84	401	62	48	16	85%	4.2	15.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.0%	7.07	5.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	53	225	32	23	8	100%	5.9	14.3%	10.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.33	5.48	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	50	210	29	22	8	100%	6.2	13.6%	10.7%	2.9%	3.7%	5.56	5.71	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	20	84	12	9	3	100%	6.7	14.3%	10.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.33	5.48	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	27	114	15	12	4	100%	6.8	13.6%	10.7%	2.9%	3.7%	5.56	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	40	228	993	166	93	41	89%	5.1	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	4.1%	5.15	5.15	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	871	146	82	36	89%	5.1	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	4.1%	5.15	5.15	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		138	130	682	3005	545	300	109	94%	4.9	18.1%	10.0%	8.2%	3.6%	5.34	4.83	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	881	160	88	32	94%	4.9	18.1%	10.0%	8.2%	3.6%	5.34	4.83	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Henry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	15.0%	10.0%	3.3%	—	5.59	14.0%	3.5%	103	+0.32	—	—	—
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	70
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	67
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	67
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	67
Jeff Locke L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	29	SP	4.18	17.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	328	66
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	65
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	65
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	64
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	182	64
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	63
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	62
Andrew Albers L 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	12.4%	7.2%	2.1%	.354	3.51	17.9%	12.6%	303	-0.62	2.98	508	62
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	61
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	61
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	61
Brett Anderson L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	13.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.357	4.08	14.2%	8.8%	336	-0.08	3.49	706	60
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	60
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	59
Adam Wilk L 2017 · 5.53 FIP	29	SP-	5.53	14.5%	6.1%	5.2%	.338	4.77	13.5%	5.2%	165	-0.76	3.29	455	59
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	14.3%	10.3%	1.34	5.32
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21