Tommy Henry

P Reno Aces

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	29	27	146	4.98	4.30	22.1%	11.0%	1.9	K 19.6% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.36
2025	28	MIX2 levels	13	11	61	7.67	4.38	21.2%	7.9%	0.7	K 17.4% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.44
2026	29	MIX3 levels	23	20	94	7.18	5.63	16.3%	11.2%	—	K 13.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.60
2027PROJ	30	MLBARI	1	1	6	5.19	5.49	14.5%	10.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ29% MLB	31	MLBARI	2	2	13	5.51	5.72	13.8%	10.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	32	MLBARI	3	3	16	5.79	5.98	13.0%	11.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%11

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsMarlon Arias (age 30) · Jorge Castillo (age 33) · Carlos Teller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 144

ERA5.19

FIP5.49

K%14.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1016.7%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.385

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	23	23	116	493	135	53	24	100%	5.0	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	4.6%	5.21	5.25	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	23	23	116	493	135	53	24	100%	5.0	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	4.9%	5.21	4.84	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	679	139	65	21	100%	5.3	18.7%	9.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.22	4.65	+1.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	160	679	139	65	21	100%	5.3	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+2.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	110	472	86	41	15	95%	5.3	17.6%	8.5%	9.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.55	+1.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	110	472	86	41	15	95%	5.3	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.42	+1.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	19.6%	10.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.98	4.36	+1.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	19.6%	10.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.98	4.36	+1.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	146	653	144	72	19	93%	5.0	22.1%	11.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.30	+1.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.4%	7.67	4.44	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.4%	7.67	4.44	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	61	278	59	22	10	85%	4.7	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.6%	7.67	4.38	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	94	448	73	50	18	87%	4.1	13.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.2%	7.18	5.60	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	94	448	73	50	18	87%	4.1	13.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.2%	7.18	5.60	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	20	94	448	73	50	18	87%	4.1	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	4.0%	7.18	5.63	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	32	181	794	138	72	34	86%	4.9	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	4.3%	5.07	5.21	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ARI	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	14.5%	10.2%	4.3%	3.5%	5.19	5.49	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	45	191	26	20	7	100%	5.7	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	3.8%	5.51	5.72	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	ARI	6	6	37	155	20	17	6	100%	6.1	13.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.0%	5.79	5.98	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	13	55	8	6	2	100%	6.5	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	3.8%	5.51	5.72	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	16	68	9	7	3	100%	5.3	13.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.0%	5.79	5.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	37	210	917	154	85	39	88%	5.0	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	4.2%	5.15	5.18	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	873	147	81	37	88%	5.0	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	4.2%	5.15	5.18	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		139	131	687	3023	554	299	109	94%	4.9	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	880	161	87	32	94%	4.9	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.79	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 89 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.60 (+0.25)K% 15.3% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.27%	—	×0.860	13.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×0.900	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 54 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.44 (+0.46)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.24%	—	×0.860	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.904	×1.100	3.38%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 108 IPFIP 3.67 → 3.79 (+0.12)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.20%	—	×0.860	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×0.900	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.124	×1.100	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.67 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 21 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.31 (+0.33)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.860	20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×0.900	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.30%	÷1.012	×1.100	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 113 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.20 (+0.46)K% 21.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.73%	—	×0.880	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.49%	—	×1.050	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 116 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.25 (+0.43)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.810	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.100	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	4.87%	÷1.271	×1.200	4.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Henry (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.84	13.4%	2.7%	82	+0.35	—	—	—
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	78
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	77
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	76
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	76
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	73
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	72
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	70
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	69
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	66
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	66
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	65
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	233	64
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	64
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	63
Frank Garces L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	29	SP	4.84	15.0%	7.9%	3.6%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	306	62
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	61
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	61
Sean Nolin L 2019 · 5.14 FIP	29	SP	5.14	18.7%	8.1%	4.7%	.310	4.54	20.4%	11.5%	74	-0.60	3.79	309	60
Justin Nicolino L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	30	SP	5.19	12.8%	7.9%	3.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	835	60
Joey Lucchesi L 2023 · 4.55 FIP	30	SP	4.55	17.7%	9.6%	3.1%	.287	4.22	18.5%	10.0%	217	-0.33	3.12	817	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	15.9%	9.9%	1.56	5.24
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*
Carlos Castillo ('01)	1.1	70	14.2%	9.0%	1.58	5.04
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*