Tommy Henry
P
Reno Aces
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128138vR 147
ERA5.12
FIP5.32
K%15.6%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%4.6%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1016.7%
K%
p1116.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.385
SI (2%)
CU (28%)
CH (23%)
FB-1.0 (27%)
SL-1.6 (21%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 23 | 23 | 116 | 493 | 135 | 53 | 24 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.80 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 23 | 23 | 116 | 493 | 135 | 53 | 24 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.4% | 10.8% | 16.6% | 4.9% | 5.21 | 4.84 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 160 | 679 | 139 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.61 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 160 | 679 | 139 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.29 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 110 | 472 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 95% | 5.3 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 110 | 472 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 95% | 5.3 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 146 | 653 | 144 | 72 | 19 | 93% | 5.0 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 146 | 653 | 144 | 72 | 19 | 93% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 61 | 278 | 59 | 22 | 10 | 85% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 7.67 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 61 | 278 | 59 | 22 | 10 | 85% | 4.7 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 7.67 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 13 | 11 | 47 | 243 | 37 | 31 | 9 | 85% | 3.6 | 11.5% | 14.2% | -2.7% | 3.6% | 8.37 | 5.91 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 37 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 104 | 483 | 74 | 57 | 17 | — | — | 15.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.60 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 6 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 15.6% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 34 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.37 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 30 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.61 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 26 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 5.86 | 6.02 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.37 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.61 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 5.86 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 46 | 265 | 1149 | 188 | 113 | 47 | 90% | 5.2 | 16.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.24 | 5.21 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 35 | 200 | 867 | 142 | 85 | 35 | 90% | 5.2 | 16.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.24 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 122 | 641 | 2818 | 527 | 301 | 93 | 95% | 5.0 | 18.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 4.68 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 38 | 200 | 880 | 165 | 94 | 29 | 95% | 5.0 | 18.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Henry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.32 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.76 | 14.2% | 2.6% | 149 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 70 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 67 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 66 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 66 |
| Jason Vargas L 2029 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 65 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 65 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 65 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.15 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 182 | 64 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 64 |
| Darin Gorski L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 62 |
| Martín Pérez L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.63 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.93 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 452 | -0.70 | 3.14 | 1,519 | 61 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 61 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .354 | 3.55 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 303 | -0.62 | 3.01 | 508 | 61 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 60 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .297 | 4.77 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.37 | 3.72 | 333 | 60 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 60 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.91 | 12.7% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 463 | 59 |
| Brett Anderson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.22 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .357 | 4.05 | 14.2% | 8.8% | 336 | -0.17 | 3.43 | 706 | 58 |
| Matt Lujan L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 57 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.67 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 4.7% | .259 | 4.71 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 216 | -0.96 | 4.40 | 713 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 14.6% | 11.4% | 1.37 | 5.47 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |