Justin Nicolino
P Louisville Bats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 27 | AAACWS | 24 | 22 | 135 | 6.12 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 6.9% | — | K 14.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.83 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAACIN | 20 | 18 | 85 | 5.82 | 5.42 | 14.6% | 7.6% | — | K 12.8% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.19 |
Statcast · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 189 | 788 | 86 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 4.46 | +2.1 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 189 | 788 | 86 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 3.71 | 4.21 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 32 | 27 | 164 | 691 | 86 | 32 | 18 | 84% | 5.1 | 11.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 32 | 27 | 164 | 691 | 86 | 32 | 18 | 84% | 5.1 | 12.4% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.06 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 35 | 23 | 133 | 581 | 78 | 38 | 19 | 66% | 3.8 | 12.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.86 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 35 | 23 | 133 | 581 | 78 | 38 | 19 | 66% | 3.8 | 13.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.64 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | 25 | 24 | 134 | 585 | 86 | 32 | 13 | 96% | 5.4 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.09 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | 25 | 24 | 134 | 585 | 86 | 32 | 13 | 96% | 5.4 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 4.69 | 3.79 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 22 | 135 | 593 | 97 | 41 | 36 | 92% | 5.6 | 14.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.12 | 5.83 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 22 | 135 | 593 | 97 | 41 | 36 | 92% | 5.6 | 16.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.12 | 6.03 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | 20 | 18 | 85 | 370 | 54 | 28 | 17 | 90% | 4.2 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.82 | 5.19 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | 20 | 18 | 85 | 370 | 54 | 28 | 17 | 90% | 4.2 | 14.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.82 | 5.42 | — |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 50 | 33 | 201 | 876 | 86 | 52 | 24 | 66% | 4.0 | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 50 | 33 | 201 | 876 | 86 | 52 | 24 | 66% | 4.0 | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.53 | +2.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 50 | 33 | 200 | 870 | 85 | 52 | 24 | 66% | 4.0 | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.53 | +2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 168 | 146 | 841 | 3608 | 441 | 226 | 124 | 87% | 5.0 | 12.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.75 | +1.9 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 40 | 35 | 200 | 858 | 105 | 54 | 30 | 87% | 5.0 | 12.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.75 | +1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAALouisville Bats · 85 IPFIP 5.35 → 5.19 (−0.16)K% 14.6% → 12.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.59% | — | ×0.880 | 12.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.57% | — | ×1.050 | 7.95% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.59% | ÷1.282 | ×1.100 | 3.94% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).
Result: FIP 5.35 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 135 IPFIP 5.93 → 5.83 (−0.10)K% 16.4% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 16.36% | — | ×0.880 | 14.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.91% | — | ×1.050 | 7.26% |
| HR / BF /BF | 6.07% | ÷1.212 | ×1.100 | 5.51% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).
Result: FIP 5.93 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALouisville Bats · 134 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.09 (+0.32)K% 14.7% → 12.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.70% | — | ×0.880 | 12.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 5.47% | — | ×1.050 | 5.74% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.22% | ÷0.988 | ×1.100 | 2.48% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).
Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 79 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.85 (+0.51)K% 15.5% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 15.50% | — | ×0.880 | 13.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.99% | — | ×1.050 | 7.34% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.04% | ÷0.928 | ×1.100 | 3.60% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).
Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 6 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.98 (+0.86)K% 4.3% → 3.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 4.35% | — | ×0.770 | 3.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 0.00% | — | ×1.150 | 0.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.35% | ÷0.944 | ×1.250 | 5.76% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).
Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 85 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.45 (+0.48)K% 14.2% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.20% | — | ×0.880 | 12.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.77% | — | ×1.050 | 3.96% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.90% | ÷0.919 | ×1.100 | 3.47% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).
Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 115 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.28 (+0.33)K% 12.9% → 11.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 12.94% | — | ×0.880 | 11.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 5.54% | — | ×1.050 | 5.82% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.26% | ÷0.975 | ×1.100 | 2.55% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).
Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).