Brendan McKay
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.25
FIP4.42
K%22.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p410.322
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 17 | 78 | 299 | 103 | 14 | 3 | 89% | 4.1 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 20.3% | 1.7% | 2.41 | 2.55 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 17 | 78 | 299 | 103 | 14 | 3 | 89% | 4.1 | 34.4% | 4.7% | 29.8% | 1.0% | 2.41 | 1.50 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 24 | 123 | 494 | 158 | 34 | 11 | 86% | 4.4 | 28.6% | 7.2% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 2.71 | 2.94 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 24 | 123 | 494 | 158 | 34 | 11 | 86% | 4.4 | 32.0% | 6.9% | 25.1% | 2.2% | 2.71 | 2.52 | +4.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 13 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 100% | 1.8 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 7.82 | 7.81 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 13 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 100% | 1.8 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 7.82 | 8.39 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 5 | 15 | 65 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 71% | 2.2 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 5 | 15 | 65 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 71% | 2.2 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 5 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.6% | 1.6% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 1.00 | 2.65 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 5 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 25.4% | 1.5% | 23.9% | 1.5% | 1.00 | 2.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TB | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 12 | 55 | 242 | 62 | 18 | 9 | 86% | 3.9 | 25.5% | 7.6% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 3.92 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 44 | 200 | 877 | 224 | 65 | 33 | 86% | 3.9 | 25.5% | 7.6% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 58 | 247 | 985 | 259 | 64 | 27 | 88% | 3.7 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 2.77 | 3.18 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 47 | 200 | 798 | 210 | 52 | 22 | 88% | 3.7 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 2.77 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendan McKay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.64 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 20 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 69 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 68 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 67 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 65 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 65 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 65 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 65 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 65 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.28 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .367 | 4.16 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | -0.12 | 3.97 | 280 | 64 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 62 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 62 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 62 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 62 |
| Jeff Locke L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 61 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 61 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 61 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 60 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 59 |
| Darin Gorski L 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 59 |
| Misael Siverio L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 58 |