Brendan McKay

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	25	MIX2 levels	7	7	13	7.82	8.39	21.7%	8.3%	—	K 21.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 7.81
2022	26	MIX3 levels	7	5	15	2.93	4.14	21.5%	9.2%	—	K 21.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.14
2024	28	AATB	5	5	18	1.00	2.10	25.4%	1.5%	—	K 20.6% · BB 1.6% · FIP 2.60
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.31	4.48	22.6%	8.9%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBTB	1	1	6	4.50	4.67	21.9%	9.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

K%70

xwOBA vs41

FB Velo38

CompsJohn Bale (age 29) · Ryan Verdugo (age 30) · Brandon Mann (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.31

FIP4.48

K%22.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	17	78	299	103	14	3	89%	4.1	25.7%	5.4%	20.3%	1.5%	2.41	2.44	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	17	78	299	103	14	3	89%	4.1	34.4%	4.7%	29.8%	1.0%	2.41	1.50	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	123	494	158	34	11	86%	4.4	28.6%	7.2%	21.5%	2.4%	2.71	2.90	+3.8
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	123	494	158	34	11	86%	4.4	32.0%	6.9%	25.1%	2.2%	2.71	2.52	+4.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	13	60	13	5	6	100%	1.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.3%	10.0%	7.82	7.81	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	13	60	13	5	6	100%	1.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.3%	10.0%	7.82	8.39	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	5	15	65	14	6	2	71%	2.2	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.1%	2.93	4.14	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	5	15	65	14	6	2	71%	2.2	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.1%	2.93	4.14	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	18	67	17	1	1	100%	3.6	20.6%	1.6%	18.9%	1.9%	1.00	2.60	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	18	67	17	1	1	100%	3.6	20.6%	1.6%	18.9%	1.9%	1.00	2.60	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	18	67	17	1	1	100%	3.6	25.4%	1.5%	23.9%	1.5%	1.00	2.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	11	49	216	56	16	8	85%	3.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	3.7%	5.14	3.92	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.31	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TB	3	3	20	84	19	8	3	100%	6.7	21.9%	9.4%	12.6%	3.5%	4.55	4.72	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.4%	12.6%	3.4%	4.50	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	12	55	242	62	18	9	86%	3.9	25.5%	7.6%	17.9%	3.7%	5.07	3.93	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	44	200	877	224	65	33	86%	3.9	25.5%	7.6%	17.9%	3.7%	5.07	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		66	58	247	985	259	64	26	88%	3.7	26.3%	6.5%	19.8%	2.6%	2.77	3.12	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	47	200	798	210	52	21	88%	3.7	26.3%	6.5%	19.8%	2.6%	2.77	3.12	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 18 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.60 (+0.63)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.810	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.49%	—	×1.100	1.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.958	×1.200	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 9 IPFIP 6.07 → 7.79 (+1.73)K% 16.2% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.740	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.180	12.76%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷0.943	×1.300	7.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 6.07 → 7.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 7 IPFIP 10.25 → 12.89 (+2.63)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	13.89%	÷0.938	×1.200	17.78%

Result: FIP 10.25 → 12.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Rays · 6 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.94 (+1.78)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.680	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.250	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.948	×1.400	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 42 IPFIP 1.18 → 2.10 (+0.93)K% 39.7% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.74%	—	×0.810	32.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.77%	—	×1.100	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.920	×1.200	1.67%

Result: FIP 1.18 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 32 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.08 (+0.37)K% 32.8% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.79%	—	×0.880	28.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.050	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.128	×1.100	0.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 48 IPFIP 2.02 → 2.94 (+0.92)K% 28.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.770	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×1.150	6.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷0.857	×1.250	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 25 IPFIP 0.07 → 1.32 (+1.25)K% 47.1% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.06%	—	×0.740	34.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.35%	—	×1.180	2.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.037	×1.300	1.47%

Result: FIP 0.07 → 1.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan McKay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.6%	8.9%	3.2%	—	4.72	21.9%	12.6%	20	+0.24	—	—	—
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	71
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	67
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	65
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	65
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	65
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	65
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	64
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	64
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	63
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	61
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	60
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	58
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	58
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	56
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	56
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	56
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	55
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	55
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	26	24.5%	8.1%	1.39	4.89
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51
Rich Hinton ('71-'79, -2 WAR*)	1.2	50	21.3%*	8.0%*	1.15*	5.41*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*