Jackson Wolf
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'7" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP5.11
SIERA5.29
K%19.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.8%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†4550
CH+0.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 7 | 7 | 15 | 65 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 3.00 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 25 | 24 | 130 | 536 | 142 | 50 | 17 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 4.37 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 27 | 27 | 129 | 525 | 136 | 33 | 17 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 32 | 18 | 103 | 495 | 93 | 63 | 13 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 6.66 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 27 | 129 | 572 | 134 | 47 | 15 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 4.15 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 6 | 1 | 12 | 48 | 17 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 100 | 51 | 15 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 132 | 555 | 117 | 55 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 101 | 50 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 96 | 47 | 15 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 92 | 45 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 87 | 44 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 81 | 43 | 14 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 76 | 42 | 14 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 70 | 40 | 14 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 64 | 38 | 13 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 125 | 104 | 517 | 2241 | 455 | 223 | 76 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.52 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 867 | 176 | 86 | 29 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Wolf (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.71 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 352 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 84 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 83 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 83 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 82 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 82 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 81 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 80 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 80 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 79 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 79 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 78 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 78 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 78 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 78 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 78 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 77 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 77 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 76 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 76 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 91 | -1.28 | 3.15 | 442 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $10M | +$3M | ||