Jackson Wolf

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 LHP 6'7" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	32	18	103	6.66	4.78	18.8%	12.7%	—	K 16.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.70
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	27	129	5.04	3.63	23.4%	8.2%	—	K 19.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.03
2026	27	AAADET	31	23	123	5.58	3.92	23.3%	9.1%	—	K 20.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	1	1	8	4.66	4.66	18.9%	8.8%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBDET	4	4	26	4.69	4.75	19.0%	8.9%	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBDET	6	6	38	4.63	4.62	20.9%	8.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMatt Tracy (age 28) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%18.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	15	65	24	7	1	100%	2.1	27.0%	13.6%	13.4%	3.1%	3.00	4.23	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	15	65	24	7	1	100%	2.1	36.9%	10.8%	26.2%	1.5%	3.00	2.17	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	130	536	142	50	17	96%	5.2	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	4.3%	4.37	5.09	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	130	536	142	50	17	96%	5.2	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	3.2%	4.37	3.77	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	129	525	136	33	17	100%	4.8	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.18	4.16	+1.9
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	129	525	136	33	17	100%	4.8	25.9%	6.3%	19.6%	3.2%	4.18	3.47	+3.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	2.7%	6.66	4.70	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	2.7%	6.66	4.70	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	2.6%	6.66	4.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.0%	5.04	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.0%	5.04	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.6%	5.04	3.63	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	31	23	123	559	130	51	16	74%	4.0	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.1%	5.58	4.18	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	31	23	123	559	130	51	16	74%	4.0	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.1%	5.58	4.18	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	31	23	123	559	130	51	16	74%	4.0	23.3%	9.1%	14.1%	2.9%	5.58	3.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	22	1	1	0	100%	5.0	4.5%	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.30	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	304	58	27	10	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	69	290	61	24	10	100%	6.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	+0.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	61	256	53	22	9	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.6%	4.73	4.80	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	21	10	3	100%	6.5	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	34	13	5	100%	6.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	41	173	36	15	6	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.6%	4.73	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	110	467	91	39	15	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.72	4.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	165	71	27	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.72	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		150	126	628	2752	546	249	92	84%	4.2	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.42	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	876	174	79	29	84%	4.2	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.42	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 123 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.18 (+0.32)K% 23.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.860	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×0.900	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 104 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.13 (+0.31)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.59%	—	×0.860	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×0.900	8.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 25 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.50 (+1.02)K% 32.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.63%	—	×0.810	26.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.16%	—	×1.100	3.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷0.950	×1.200	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 89 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.01 (+0.08)K% 17.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.59%	—	×0.860	15.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×0.900	11.88%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.078	×1.100	3.07%

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 14 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.58 (+0.55)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.98%	—	×0.810	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.953	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 124 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.16 (+0.67)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.84%	—	×0.810	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.100	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.106	×1.200	3.67%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 119 IPFIP 3.73 → 5.08 (+1.36)K% 27.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.57%	—	×0.770	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×1.150	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷0.920	×1.250	4.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 11 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.19 (+0.82)K% 16.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.810	12.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.870	×1.200	2.76%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Wolf (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	18.9%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.72	20.1%	11.5%	201	+0.06	—	—	—
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	80
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	78
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	75
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	73
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	72
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	72
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	72
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	71
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	71
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	71
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	71
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	71
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	71
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	71
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	71
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	70
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	70
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	70
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	73	19.5%	8.6%	1.24	4.69
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*