Jackson Wolf — OGILVIE

Jackson Wolf P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 27 LHP 6'7" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

CH+0.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	15	65	24	7	1	100%	2.1	27.0%	13.6%	13.4%	3.1%	3.00	4.23	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	15	65	24	7	1	100%	2.1	36.9%	10.8%	26.2%	1.5%	3.00	2.17	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	130	536	142	50	17	96%	5.2	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	4.3%	4.37	5.09	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	130	536	142	50	17	96%	5.2	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	3.2%	4.37	3.77	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	129	525	136	33	17	100%	4.8	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.18	4.16	+1.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	129	525	136	33	17	100%	4.8	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.18	4.16	+1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	129	525	136	33	17	100%	4.8	25.9%	6.3%	19.6%	3.2%	4.18	3.47	+2.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	15.5%	11.7%	3.8%	2.7%	6.66	4.74	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	15.5%	11.7%	3.8%	2.7%	6.66	4.74	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	103	495	93	63	13	56%	3.2	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	2.6%	6.66	4.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.0%	5.04	4.07	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.0%	5.04	4.07	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	129	572	134	47	15	96%	4.6	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.6%	5.04	3.63	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	22	1	1	0	100%	5.0	4.5%	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.30	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	22	117	534	125	49	16	73%	3.9	19.4%	8.3%	11.2%	3.3%	5.77	4.31	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	22	117	534	125	49	16	73%	3.9	19.4%	8.3%	11.2%	3.3%	5.77	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	DET	30	22	117	534	125	49	16	73%	3.9	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.0%	5.77	3.93	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	8	32	6	3	1	100%	7.6	17.5%	9.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	125	566	131	52	17	—	—	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.0%	5.71	4.34	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	84	356	64	32	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	80	340	61	31	11	100%	6.2	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	320	63	28	11	100%	5.8	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.77	+0.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	298	58	27	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.89	4.96	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	27	14	4	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.74	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	48	203	36	19	6	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.82	0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	53	224	44	19	7	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.3%	4.70	4.69	+0.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	55	232	45	21	8	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	198	835	154	74	26	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.76	4.38	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	156	75	26	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.76	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		149	125	622	2727	533	248	92	84%	4.2	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.4%	5.08	4.46	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	876	171	80	30	84%	4.2	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.4%	5.08	4.46	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Wolf (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.5%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.83	18.5%	9.5%	240	+0.05	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	81
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	80
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	77
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	77
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	76
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	76
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	75
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	75
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	75
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	74
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	74
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	74
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	73
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	73
Nate Fisher L 2023 · 5.52 FIP	27	SP-	5.52	14.6%	9.1%	4.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	229	73
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	79	18.5%	9.0%	1.26	4.81
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50