Blake Snell — OGILVIE

Blake Snell P Los Angeles Dodgers

+0.8 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2027

ERA2.99

FIP3.30

xFIP3.09

SIERA3.64

K%30.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%19.8%

IP77

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p9035.6%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

CH+7.0 (24%)

SL+0.8 (11%)

CU (22%)

FB-2.0 (44%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	25	23	134	521	163	53	7	25.9%	11.2%	1.6%	1.41	3.20	+3.2
2016	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	152	671	188	79	9	26.4%	12.0%	1.3%	3.43	3.09	+3.8
2017	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	173	734	180	73	20	23.5%	10.0%	2.8%	3.69	3.94	+2.7
2018	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	181	700	221	62	16	31.6%	8.9%	2.6%	1.89	2.99	+4.7
2019	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	23	23	107	441	147	39	14	33.3%	8.8%	3.3%	4.29	3.20	+2.5
2020	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	50	203	63	18	10	31.0%	8.9%	5.3%	3.24	4.50	+0.3
2021	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	27	27	129	550	170	68	16	30.9%	12.4%	2.9%	4.20	3.64	+2.4
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	27	27	141	587	190	53	12	32.0%	9.5%	1.8%	3.32	2.58	+4.3
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	32	32	180	742	234	99	15	31.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.25	3.29	+4.1
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	25	25	123	486	177	50	7	35.2%	10.6%	1.6%	3.01	2.37	+4.1
2025	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	15	15	75	307	96	30	3	28.3%	9.8%	1.0%	2.16	2.52	+2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	SD	39	—	39	163	51	17	3	31.5%	10.6%	1.9%	2.88	3.22	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	SD	13	13	74	310	95	33	6	30.8%	10.8%	2.0%	3.17	3.36	+1.4
2028	35	MLB	SD	13	13	69	293	88	32	6	30.0%	11.0%	2.1%	3.38	3.51	+1.2
2029	36	MLB	SD	12	12	65	274	80	31	6	29.2%	11.2%	2.3%	3.56	3.68	+1.0
2030	37	MLB	SD	11	11	60	254	72	29	6	28.4%	11.5%	2.4%	3.74	3.85	+0.8
2031	38	MLB	SD	55	—	55	233	64	28	6	27.6%	11.8%	2.5%	3.92	4.04	+0.6
2032	39	MLB	SD	51	—	51	215	57	26	6	26.7%	12.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.23	+0.4
2033	40	MLB	SD	47	—	47	198	51	25	6	25.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.29	4.41	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			278	276	1444	5942	1766	636	134	29.7%	10.7%	2.3%	2.95	3.19	+34.6
/ 200 IP	—			38	38	200	823	245	88	19	29.7%	10.7%	2.3%	2.95	3.19	+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Snell (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.22	31.5%	10.6%	1.9%	—	3.51	30.0%	19.0%	208	+0.29	—	—	—
Josh Edgin L 2024 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	113	56
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2027 · 2.57 FIP	34	SU	2.57	24.2%	9.2%	0.6%	.307	3.31	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.74	2.57	109	56
Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	31.8%	14.0%	3.7%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	205	55
Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 2.58 FIP	33	SU	2.58	29.1%	11.9%	0.8%	.294	2.83	24.1%	10.2%	29	+0.25	2.58	160	54
Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.78 FIP	33	SU	2.78	31.8%	10.1%	2.0%	.320	4.26	23.7%	13.1%	75	+1.48	2.66	166	53
Anthony Gose L 2026 · 3.98 FIP	33	SU	3.98	27.0%	13.1%	2.7%	.279	5.80	21.3%	7.0%	37	+1.82	3.98	173	53
Andrew Miller L 2026 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	29.2%	9.7%	1.8%	.308	4.21	27.8%	17.7%	104	+1.33	1.15	336	52
Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 2.76 FIP	33	SU	2.76	27.9%	7.1%	2.0%	.304	2.62	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.14	1.56	219	51
Jake Diekman L 2026 · 2.32 FIP	33	SU	2.32	36.9%	13.1%	1.2%	.171	4.05	29.2%	15.1%	175	+1.73	2.32	455	51
Aroldis Chapman L 2026 · 3.65 FIP	33	SW	3.65	39.9%	14.8%	3.7%	.267	2.91	36.3%	21.3%	156	-0.74	1.25	557	51
Matt Moore L 2026 · 2.83 FIP	33	SW	2.83	27.3%	11.8%	1.0%	.253	4.46	23.7%	15.3%	101	+1.63	2.83	845	51
Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.22 FIP	33	SU	2.22	26.8%	11.0%	0.0%	.275	3.17	30.6%	24.0%	154	+0.95	2.22	459	48
Tony Watson L 2026 · 2.22 FIP	33	SW	2.22	27.6%	4.2%	1.7%	.287	3.97	18.9%	13.0%	129	+1.75	2.22	405	48
Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP	33	SU	4.19	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.80	21.9%	14.0%	152	-0.39	1.81	421	48
Brooks Raley L 2026 · 2.96 FIP	33	SU	2.96	31.7%	7.8%	2.8%	.314	2.70	26.8%	18.8%	108	-0.26	1.74	203	47
Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP	33	SW	4.42	24.2%	13.4%	3.0%	.302	5.50	16.1%	-3.1%	26	+1.08	2.97	294	47
Aaron Loup L 2026 · 2.07 FIP	33	SW	2.07	26.1%	7.3%	0.5%	.250	3.36	19.8%	12.7%	107	+1.29	2.07	363	47
Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	33	SU	4.34	28.4%	9.3%	4.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	713	47
Zach Duke L 2026 · 2.58 FIP	33	SW	2.58	26.4%	10.1%	0.8%	.284	3.72	19.2%	10.2%	94	+1.14	2.41	215	46
Brian Duensing L 2026 · 2.63 FIP	33	SU	2.63	21.3%	4.8%	1.3%	.292	4.37	18.3%	9.1%	113	+1.74	2.63	198	46

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

NTCDEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$28M	+0.8	$3M	-$25M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$27M	+1.4	$12M	-$16M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$36M	+1.2	$10M	-$26M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$26M	+1.0	$9M	-$18M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.7	$3M	-$7M
Totals		$128M		$37M	-$91M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$91M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.