Blake Snell P Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.0 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7584vR 93
ERA3.28
FIP3.42
K%31.9%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%20.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
K: +7.7 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+8KBB: -3.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-3BBCONTACT: +6.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+6CONTACTSTAM: +6.0 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+6STAMTotal WAR: +1.75 (76 IP)+1.8WAR
0.02.55.00.71.71.00.60.1-0.3-$160M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF6565
CTRL5555
CMD6565
K†7070
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p9035.6%
K%
p8328.3%
xwOBA vs
p800.283
CH+7.0 (24%)
SL+0.8 (11%)
CU (22%)
FB-2.0 (44%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2016
Service   9.419 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2027
OPTDEF 20%
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$15M+0.7$3M-$12M
2027Ext$36M+1.7$13M-$20M
2028Ext$36M+1.0$7M-$23M
2029Ext$36M+0.6$2M-$25M
Totals $124M $24M -$79M
Options · projected decision
2030PLAYER OPT$30.0M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2031PLAYER OPT$36.4M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$79M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201522MIX3 levels252313452116353792%5.425.9%11.2%14.7%1.6%1.413.20—
201522MIX3 levels252313452116353792%5.431.3%10.2%21.1%1.3%1.412.53—
201623MIX2 levels3131152671188799100%4.926.4%12.0%14.4%1.3%3.433.09+4.1
201623MIX2 levels3131152671188799100%4.928.0%11.8%16.2%1.3%3.432.96+4.3
201724MIX2 levels31311737341807320100%5.623.5%10.0%13.5%2.8%3.693.95+2.9
201724MIX2 levels31311737341807320100%5.624.5%9.9%14.6%2.7%3.693.79+3.3
201825MLBTampa Bay Rays31311817002216216100%5.831.6%8.9%22.7%2.4%1.892.88+5.3
201825MLBTampa Bay Rays31311817002216216100%5.831.6%8.9%22.7%2.3%1.892.83+5.4
201926MLBTampa Bay Rays23231074411473914100%4.733.3%8.8%24.5%3.4%4.293.25+2.7
201926MLBTampa Bay Rays23231074411473914100%4.733.3%8.8%24.5%3.2%4.293.15+2.8
202027MLBTampa Bay Rays111150203631810100%4.531.0%8.9%22.2%5.2%3.244.46+0.1
202027MLBTampa Bay Rays111150203631810100%4.531.0%8.9%22.2%4.9%3.244.26+0.2
202128MLBSan Diego Padres27271295501706816100%4.830.9%12.4%18.5%3.1%4.203.77+2.4
202128MLBSan Diego Padres27271295501706816100%4.830.9%12.4%18.5%2.9%4.203.66+2.6
202229MIX4 levels27271415871905312100%5.232.0%9.5%22.4%2.2%3.322.82+4.3
202229MIX4 levels27271415871905312100%5.232.4%9.0%23.3%2.0%3.322.64+4.6
202330MLBSan Diego Padres32321807422349915100%5.631.5%13.3%18.2%2.2%2.253.32+4.4
202330MLBSan Diego Padres32321807422349915100%5.631.5%13.3%18.2%2.0%2.253.23+4.6
202431MIX3 levels2525123486177507100%4.935.2%10.6%24.6%1.6%3.012.35+4.4
202431MIX3 levels2525123486177507100%4.936.4%10.3%26.1%1.4%3.012.18+4.6
202532MIX4 levels15157530796303100%5.028.3%9.8%18.5%1.2%2.162.64+2.0
202532MIX4 levels15157530796303100%5.031.3%9.8%21.5%1.0%2.162.26+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
202633MLBLos Angeles Dodgers4411501541100%2.8————5.73——
ROS33MLBLAD11116527487326100%5.931.9%11.9%20.1%2.1%3.283.42+0.9
ROS33MLBLAD11116527488336100%5.931.9%11.9%20.1%2.0%3.253.39+1.0
2026 TOT33MLBLAD——76324102367——31.6%11.3%20.4%2.1%3.642.92+1.7
2026 FULL33MLBLAD——68286102367——35.8%12.7%23.0%2.3%4.032.94+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202734MLBLAD151592391121489100%6.231.1%12.4%18.7%2.4%3.553.73+1.6
202835MLBLAD141483350105459100%5.930.1%12.9%17.2%2.7%3.864.06+1.0
202936MLBLAD121274310963910100%6.131.1%12.7%18.4%3.1%4.044.16+0.6
203037MLBLAD11116427181369100%5.830.0%13.4%16.6%3.5%4.354.56+0.1
203138MLBLAD995523367339100%6.128.8%14.1%14.8%3.9%4.744.99-0.3
203239MLBLAD884720055309100%5.927.7%14.8%12.9%4.4%5.155.42-0.5
202734MLBLAD151592388121489100%6.131.1%12.4%18.7%2.3%3.513.69+1.7
202835MLBLAD141483350105459100%5.930.1%12.9%17.2%2.6%3.824.02+1.0
202936MLBLAD12127431297409100%6.231.1%12.7%18.4%3.0%3.994.11+0.6
203037MLBLAD11116427081369100%5.830.0%13.4%16.6%3.4%4.304.51+0.1
203138MLBLAD995523267339100%6.128.8%14.1%14.8%3.8%4.684.93-0.2
203239MLBLAD884719855298100%5.927.7%14.8%12.9%4.3%5.085.35-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—308308164168372059781171100%5.330.1%11.4%18.7%2.5%3.413.37+38.9
/ 200 IP—38382008332519521100%5.330.1%11.4%18.7%2.5%3.413.37+4.7
Career—28228014555992178164013999%5.229.7%10.7%19.0%2.3%2.973.22+37.2
/ 200 IP—3938200823245881999%5.229.7%10.7%19.0%2.3%2.973.22+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Blake Snell (OGILVIE) —— 3.42 31.9%11.9%2.1%— 3.97 30.7%18.1%249 +0.55 ———
David Price L 2026 · 3.40 FIP 33 SP 3.40 27.9%7.0%3.2%.332 3.92 19.4%13.1%114 +0.52 2.65 922 45
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 2.87 FIP 33 SP 2.87 26.2%6.2%2.2%.300 4.18 19.0%13.7%248 +1.31 2.87 725 43
Jorge De La Rosa L 2027 · 3.68 FIP 34 SP 3.68 21.1%9.8%2.1%.284 4.20 18.4%8.9%256 +0.52 3.68 405 39
Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.90 FIP 33 SP 3.90 21.7%9.6%2.6%.300 4.88 22.2%9.8%32 +0.98 2.90 864 38
Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP 33 SP 4.40 16.8%9.2%2.8%.292 4.68 12.4%7.2%186 +0.28 4.40 408 37
Shota Imanaga L 2025 · 4.61 FIP 32 SP 4.61 24.0%6.2%5.0%.254 — ——— — 3.58 426 37
Jose De Paula L 2024 · 3.17 FIP 31 SP 3.17 19.0%7.6%1.3%.394 — ——— — 3.17 118 37
C.J. Wilson L 2027 · 3.77 FIP 34 SP 3.77 19.9%8.0%2.4%.272 — ——— — 3.77 132 37
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP 33 SP 3.25 28.0%6.0%3.2%.308 4.04 22.6%13.3%209 +0.79 3.25 1,019 37
Matt Dermody L 2026 · 3.91 FIP 33 SP 3.91 21.2%5.3%3.5%.336 — ——— — 2.34 348 36
Carlos Hernandez L 2025 · 2.82 FIP 32 SP 2.82 17.9%5.5%1.0%.360 — ——— — 2.82 331 35
Wandy Rodriguez L 2029 · 3.84 FIP 36 SP- 3.84 19.4%8.5%2.4%.312 — ——— — 3.84 101 34
Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP 33 SP 4.30 19.4%7.2%3.5%.279 4.87 20.5%15.3%68 +0.57 3.68 549 33
Drew Smyly L 2026 · 4.03 FIP 33 SP 4.03 20.4%5.8%3.5%.271 4.52 22.3%13.5%201 +0.49 2.01 840 33
Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.79 FIP 34 SP 3.79 14.8%7.1%1.9%.315 4.03 13.3%6.6%110 +0.24 3.39 138 31
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP 34 SP 3.68 16.8%7.1%2.0%.307 — ——— — 3.68 119 31
Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.28 FIP 33 SP 4.28 22.3%6.1%4.2%.287 5.11 18.0%10.9%114 +0.83 2.42 807 30
Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.88 FIP 33 SP 3.88 23.6%7.5%3.3%.306 4.18 19.9%12.5%414 +0.30 2.74 1,144 30
Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP 31 SP 3.88 16.2%5.8%2.6%.339 — ——— — 3.88 129 30
Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP 34 SP 3.85 14.2%6.9%2.0%.298 4.45 10.4%3.0%129 +0.60 3.85 237 29

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION76930.3%13.0%1.174.04
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Brad Boxberger ('23)84327.1%11.7%1.173.86
Jake Diekman ('24)95128.6%13.8%0.914.07
Matt Barnes ('23)94929.6%10.8%1.034.14
Kyle Barraclough ('19)55029.0%14.1%0.863.53
José Leclerc ('24)65731.6%12.8%0.763.33