Blake Snell — OGILVIE

Blake Snell P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5664vR 72

ERA2.68

FIP2.80

K%32.4%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%21.1%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$140M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p9036.3%

p9033.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.225

CH+7.0 (24%)

SL+0.8 (11%)

CU (22%)

FB-2.0 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.419 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+0.2	$0.9M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$36M	+1.8	$13M	-$19M
2028	Ext	$36M	+1.2	$8M	-$21M
2029	Ext	$36M	+1.0	$6M	-$20M
Totals		$112M		$29M	-$63M

Options · projected decision
2030	PLAYER OPT	$30.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$36.4M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$63M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	134	521	163	53	7	92%	5.4	25.9%	11.2%	14.7%	1.6%	1.41	3.19	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	134	521	163	53	7	92%	5.4	31.3%	10.2%	21.1%	1.3%	1.41	2.53	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	152	671	188	79	9	100%	4.9	26.4%	12.0%	14.4%	1.3%	3.43	3.12	+3.4
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	152	671	188	79	9	100%	4.9	28.0%	11.8%	16.2%	1.3%	3.43	2.96	+3.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	173	734	180	73	20	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	2.8%	3.69	3.93	+2.0
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	173	734	180	73	20	100%	5.6	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	2.7%	3.69	3.79	+2.3
2018	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	181	700	221	62	16	100%	5.8	31.6%	8.9%	22.7%	2.4%	1.89	2.85	+4.7
2018	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	181	700	221	62	16	100%	5.8	31.6%	8.9%	22.7%	2.3%	1.89	2.83	+4.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	23	23	107	441	147	39	14	100%	4.7	33.3%	8.8%	24.5%	3.3%	4.29	3.20	+2.2
2019	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	23	23	107	441	147	39	14	100%	4.7	33.3%	8.8%	24.5%	3.2%	4.29	3.15	+2.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	50	203	63	18	10	100%	4.5	31.0%	8.9%	22.2%	5.1%	3.24	4.38	+0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	50	203	63	18	10	100%	4.5	31.0%	8.9%	22.2%	4.9%	3.24	4.26	+0.4
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	27	27	129	550	170	68	16	100%	4.8	30.9%	12.4%	18.5%	2.8%	4.20	3.61	+2.0
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	27	27	129	550	170	68	16	100%	4.8	30.9%	12.4%	18.5%	2.9%	4.20	3.66	+1.9
2022	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	141	587	190	53	12	100%	5.2	32.0%	9.5%	22.4%	2.0%	3.32	2.71	+3.9
2022	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	141	587	190	53	12	100%	5.2	32.4%	9.0%	23.3%	2.0%	3.32	2.64	+4.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	180	742	234	99	15	100%	5.6	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	2.0%	2.25	3.21	+3.8
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	180	742	234	99	15	100%	5.6	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	2.0%	2.25	3.21	+3.8
2023	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	32	32	180	742	234	99	15	100%	5.6	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	2.0%	2.25	3.23	+3.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	123	486	177	50	7	100%	4.9	35.0%	10.4%	24.5%	1.6%	3.01	2.34	+4.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	123	486	177	50	7	100%	4.9	35.0%	10.4%	24.5%	1.6%	3.01	2.34	+4.0
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	123	486	177	50	7	100%	4.9	36.4%	10.3%	26.1%	1.4%	3.01	2.18	+4.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	75	307	96	30	3	100%	5.0	28.3%	9.8%	18.5%	1.1%	2.16	2.57	+2.2
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	75	307	96	30	3	100%	5.0	28.3%	9.8%	18.5%	1.1%	2.16	2.57	+2.2
2025	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	75	307	96	30	3	100%	5.0	31.3%	9.8%	21.5%	1.0%	2.16	2.26	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			229	229	1196	4945	1491	531	111	100%	5.2	30.2%	10.7%	19.4%	2.2%	3.11	3.15	+26.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	57	234	80	23	3	100%	4.1	33.1%	10.4%	22.7%	0.0%	2.35	1.62	+2.4
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	57	234	80	23	3	100%	4.1	33.1%	10.4%	22.7%	0.0%	2.35	1.62	+2.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A RAW	LAD	3	3	8	31	15	1	0	100%	2.7	48.4%	3.2%	45.2%	0.0%	1.12	-0.58	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	LAD	4	4	12	49	14	6	3	100%	2.9	28.6%	12.2%	16.3%	6.1%	4.63	5.60	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	LAD	7	7	38	154	51	16	0	100%	5.4	33.1%	10.4%	22.7%	0.0%	1.91	1.62	+1.7
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	LAD	7	7	38	154	51	16	0	100%	5.4	33.1%	10.4%	22.7%	0.0%	1.91	1.62	+1.7
ROS	33	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	9	39	13	4	1	100%	4.6	32.4%	11.4%	21.1%	1.8%	2.68	2.80	+0.2
ROS	33	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	9	38	12	4	1	100%	4.5	32.4%	11.4%	21.1%	1.9%	2.72	2.84	+0.2
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	67	273	93	27	4	—	—	33.9%	10.1%	23.9%	1.4%	2.40	1.78	+2.5
FULL	33	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	47	198	93	27	4	—	—	46.8%	13.9%	32.9%	1.9%	3.41	1.94	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	92	391	123	46	7	100%	6.2	31.4%	11.9%	19.5%	1.8%	3.15	3.32	+1.8
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	83	350	107	44	7	100%	5.9	30.5%	12.4%	18.0%	2.1%	3.45	3.66	+1.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	74	310	98	38	8	100%	6.1	31.4%	12.2%	19.2%	2.5%	3.63	3.75	+1.0
2030	37	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	271	82	35	8	100%	5.8	30.3%	12.9%	17.4%	2.9%	3.94	4.15	+0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	92	388	122	46	7	100%	6.1	31.4%	11.9%	19.5%	1.9%	3.19	3.36	+1.8
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	83	350	107	44	8	100%	5.9	30.5%	12.4%	18.0%	2.2%	3.50	3.71	+1.2
2029	36	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	74	312	98	38	8	100%	6.2	31.4%	12.2%	19.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.81	+1.0
2030	37	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	82	35	8	100%	5.8	30.3%	12.9%	17.4%	3.0%	4.01	4.22	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		283	283	1518	6306	1913	698	143	100%	5.4	30.3%	11.1%	19.3%	2.3%	3.20	3.19	+32.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	831	252	92	19	100%	5.4	30.3%	11.1%	19.3%	2.3%	3.20	3.19	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		292	290	1502	6176	1842	659	132	99%	5.1	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	2.1%	2.92	3.11	+30.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	823	245	88	18	99%	5.1	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	2.1%	2.92	3.11	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Snell (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.36	31.9%	11.8%	2.0%	—	3.56	31.1%	18.9%	249	+0.20	—	—	—
David Price L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	33	SP	3.47	27.9%	7.0%	3.4%	.332	3.76	19.4%	13.1%	114	+0.29	2.65	922	56
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2020 · 2.87 FIP	33	SP	2.87	26.2%	6.2%	2.2%	.300	4.18	19.0%	13.7%	248	+1.31	2.79	725	55
Gio Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.91	22.2%	9.8%	32	+1.12	2.90	864	44
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	42
Drew Smyly L 2022 · 4.16 FIP	33	SP	4.16	20.4%	5.8%	3.7%	.271	4.66	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.50	2.00	840	41
Jon Lester L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	23.6%	7.5%	3.5%	.306	4.30	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.81	1,144	38
Mike Minor L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.10	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.80	2.43	807	38
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	38
Carlos Carrasco R 2020 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.24	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.82	2.67	1,455	36
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	36
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	35
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	35
Carlos Hernandez L 2019 · 2.83 FIP	32	SP	2.83	17.9%	5.5%	1.0%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	331	34
Cole Hamels L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	17.1%	8.5%	2.8%	.244	4.05	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.23	3.21	893	33
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	33
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.93 FIP	33	SP	3.93	20.0%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	32
Alex Cobb R 2021 · 2.74 FIP	33	SP	2.74	24.9%	8.4%	1.2%	.311	3.32	21.8%	15.6%	317	+0.58	2.74	844	31
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	3.48	138	30
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	29
Franklin Morales L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP-	4.02	15.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	101	29

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	83	31.2%	12.2%	0.85	3.44
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23