Eric Lauer
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.6
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 209 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP5.55
SIERA5.30
K%23.0%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%15.6%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
SL+0.7 (10%)
CT (17%)
CU (10%)
CH-1.8 (17%)
FB-2.9 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 21 | 123 | 511 | 132 | 36 | 10 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.30 | 3.81 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 28 | 136 | 601 | 126 | 54 | 16 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 29 | 150 | 651 | 138 | 47 | 20 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 3.90 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 19.7% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 13.09 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 25 | 21 | 124 | 506 | 129 | 42 | 16 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 3.06 | 3.89 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 159 | 661 | 157 | 59 | 27 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 3.69 | 4.23 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 23 | 19 | 91 | 420 | 109 | 48 | 22 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 5.81 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 19 | 16 | 75 | 340 | 86 | 31 | 11 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 33 | 20 | 129 | 528 | 123 | 31 | 17 | 22.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.43 | 3.59 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 7.82 | 6.21 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 23 | 10 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 77 | 329 | 71 | 32 | 13 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 18.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 219 | 191 | 1016 | 4363 | 970 | 375 | 148 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 191 | 74 | 29 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eric Lauer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.92 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 159 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 76 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 75 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 74 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 69 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.91 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .366 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +2.67 | 3.91 | 341 | 68 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.98 | 2.22 | 405 | 67 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 67 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 67 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 67 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.14 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 182 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 66 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 66 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.25 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 360 | 66 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.27 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .266 | 4.24 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.97 | 1.32 | 182 | 65 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 64 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 64 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 64 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.