Eric Lauer — OGILVIE

Eric Lauer P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.9 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.59

FIP4.67

K%17.4%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SL+0.7 (8%)

CT (23%)

CU (12%)

CH-1.8 (15%)

FB-2.9 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	27	9	2	1	100%	2.0	33.3%	7.4%	25.9%	3.7%	4.50	3.26	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	6	27	9	2	1	100%	2.0	33.3%	7.4%	25.9%	3.7%	4.50	3.27	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	123	511	132	36	10	95%	5.6	20.3%	7.9%	12.3%	2.6%	3.30	3.80	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	123	511	132	36	10	95%	5.6	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	2.0%	3.30	2.89	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	136	601	126	54	16	100%	4.9	20.2%	9.1%	11.2%	2.7%	3.96	4.00	+1.5
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	136	601	126	54	16	100%	4.9	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.97	+1.5
2019	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	29	150	651	138	47	20	97%	5.0	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	3.0%	4.45	3.87	+1.8
2019	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	29	150	651	138	47	20	97%	5.0	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	3.1%	4.45	3.94	+1.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	4	2	11	61	12	9	2	50%	2.8	19.7%	14.8%	4.9%	3.1%	13.09	5.02	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	4	2	11	61	12	9	2	50%	2.8	19.7%	14.8%	4.9%	3.3%	13.09	5.74	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	124	506	129	42	16	84%	4.9	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	3.1%	3.06	3.83	+1.6
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	124	506	129	42	16	84%	4.9	25.5%	8.3%	17.2%	3.2%	3.06	3.71	+1.8
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	29	29	159	661	157	59	27	100%	5.5	23.8%	8.9%	14.8%	3.9%	3.69	4.36	+1.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	29	29	159	661	157	59	27	100%	5.5	23.8%	8.9%	14.8%	4.1%	3.69	4.45	+0.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	91	420	109	48	22	83%	4.0	23.1%	10.7%	12.3%	5.4%	5.81	5.48	-0.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	91	420	109	48	22	83%	4.0	23.1%	10.7%	12.3%	5.4%	5.81	5.48	-0.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	91	420	109	48	22	83%	4.0	26.0%	11.4%	14.5%	5.2%	5.81	5.42	-0.5
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	19	16	75	340	86	31	11	84%	4.0	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	3.9%	5.26	4.53	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	19	16	75	340	86	31	11	84%	4.0	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	3.9%	5.26	4.53	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	19	16	75	340	86	31	11	84%	4.0	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	3.2%	5.26	3.95	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	20	129	528	123	31	17	61%	3.9	22.6%	5.8%	16.9%	3.3%	3.43	3.75	+1.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	20	129	528	123	31	17	61%	3.9	22.6%	5.8%	16.9%	3.3%	3.43	3.75	+1.8
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	20	129	528	123	31	17	61%	3.9	23.3%	5.9%	17.4%	3.2%	3.43	3.63	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			170	145	810	3469	741	283	137	85%	4.8	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.9%	4.28	4.52	+3.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	22	18	108	466	72	35	26	82%	4.9	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	5.4%	5.23	5.68	-0.9
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	22	18	108	466	72	35	26	82%	4.9	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	5.4%	5.23	5.68	-0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	LAD	22	18	108	466	72	35	26	82%	4.9	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	5.6%	5.23	5.81	-1.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	LAD	22	18	108	466	72	35	26	82%	4.9	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	5.6%	5.23	5.81	-1.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	3.8%	4.59	4.67	—
ROS	31	MLB CTX	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	4.0%	4.68	4.76	—
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	108	466	72	35	26	—	—	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	5.6%	5.23	5.68	-0.9
FULL	31	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	108	457	72	35	26	—	—	15.7%	7.7%	8.1%	5.7%	5.23	5.86	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	326	62	22	15	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	4.8%	5.32	5.35	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	299	55	22	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	5.0%	5.50	5.63	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	77	325	62	22	16	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	5.0%	5.43	5.46	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	55	22	16	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	5.2%	5.62	5.75	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	170	957	4093	858	327	169	87%	4.9	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	4.1%	4.47	4.61	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	855	179	68	35	87%	4.9	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	4.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		238	206	1112	4772	1022	392	172	87%	4.7	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.6%	4.21	4.31	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	859	184	70	31	87%	4.7	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.6%	4.21	4.31	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Lauer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	21.8%	7.0%	3.5%	—	5.48	18.7%	11.6%	148	+1.03	—	—	—
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	74
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	72
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	72
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	71
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	70
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	69
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	66
Wei-Yin Chen L 2016 · 4.51 FIP	31	SP	4.51	19.2%	4.6%	4.5%	.299	4.37	19.6%	13.1%	235	-0.14	3.68	549	66
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	64
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	64
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	64
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	64
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	63
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	182	63
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	63
Franklin Morales L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP-	4.02	15.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	101	63
Wade LeBlanc L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	31	SP-	3.65	20.3%	5.3%	2.9%	.289	4.62	18.7%	13.0%	351	+0.97	3.65	609	63
Jaime García L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	31	SP	3.97	19.2%	8.8%	2.5%	.298	4.88	19.8%	8.4%	82	+0.91	2.93	540	63
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	62
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	75	19.8%	7.1%	1.71	5.05
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47