Eric Lauer
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 209 lbs
MLB
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.19
FIP5.31
K%17.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 188 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.9
Whiff%
p1018.4%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
SL+0.7 (7%)
CT (19%)
CU (13%)
CH-1.8 (16%)
FB-2.9 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 7.4% | 25.9% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.26 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 7.4% | 25.9% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.27 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 123 | 511 | 132 | 36 | 10 | 95% | 5.6 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 3.91 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 123 | 511 | 132 | 36 | 10 | 95% | 5.6 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 2.0% | 3.30 | 2.89 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 136 | 601 | 126 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 136 | 601 | 126 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.97 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 29 | 150 | 651 | 138 | 47 | 20 | 97% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 29 | 150 | 651 | 138 | 47 | 20 | 97% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 3.94 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 14.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 13.09 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 14.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 13.09 | 5.74 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 124 | 506 | 129 | 42 | 16 | 84% | 4.9 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 3.06 | 3.99 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 124 | 506 | 129 | 42 | 16 | 84% | 4.9 | 25.5% | 8.3% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 3.06 | 3.71 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 159 | 661 | 157 | 59 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 3.69 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 159 | 661 | 157 | 59 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 3.69 | 4.45 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 19 | 91 | 420 | 109 | 48 | 22 | 83% | 4.0 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 5.81 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 19 | 91 | 420 | 109 | 48 | 22 | 83% | 4.0 | 26.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 5.2% | 5.81 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 19 | 16 | 75 | 340 | 86 | 31 | 11 | 84% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 5.26 | 4.85 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 19 | 16 | 75 | 340 | 86 | 31 | 11 | 84% | 4.0 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 3.95 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 20 | 129 | 528 | 123 | 31 | 17 | 61% | 3.9 | 22.8% | 5.9% | 16.9% | 3.4% | 3.43 | 3.81 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 20 | 129 | 528 | 123 | 31 | 17 | 61% | 3.9 | 23.3% | 5.9% | 17.4% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 | 18 | 113 | 487 | 73 | 43 | 29 | 78% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.42 | 6.22 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 75 | 318 | 54 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 54 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 188 | 805 | 127 | 69 | 44 | — | — | 15.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.33 | 5.86 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 188 | 795 | 127 | 69 | 44 | — | — | 16.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.33 | 5.90 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 62 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 5.59 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 54 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 5.78 | 5.91 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 271 | 47 | 24 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.04 | 6.22 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 62 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 5.59 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 54 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 5.78 | 5.91 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 46 | 24 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.04 | 6.22 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 192 | 1102 | 4704 | 959 | 391 | 203 | 88% | 5.1 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 4.66 | 4.80 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 174 | 71 | 37 | 88% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 4.66 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 239 | 206 | 1116 | 4793 | 1031 | 409 | 189 | 86% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 4.23 | 4.52 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 37 | 200 | 859 | 185 | 73 | 34 | 86% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 4.23 | 4.52 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eric Lauer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 3.6% | — | 5.90 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 212 | +1.36 | — | — | — |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 73 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 71 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 71 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 70 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 68 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 68 |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 66 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 65 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 64 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.83 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.69 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 333 | 64 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2024 · 5.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.15 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 182 | 64 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.56 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 62 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.08 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 188 | 62 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.79 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 327 | 62 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.96 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 82 | +0.80 | 2.89 | 540 | 62 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.20 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 405 | 61 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 61 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.18 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 360 | 61 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 61 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 1.87 | 5.40 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |
| Adam Plutko ('21) | 4 | 68 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 5.37 |