Shane McClanahan

Shane McClanahan P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.6 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.72

FIP3.83

K%22.8%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL+2.3 (18%)

CU (15%)

FB-0.9 (38%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.3M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	4	4	7	24	13	1	0	100%	1.8	54.2%	4.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.95	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	4	4	7	24	13	1	0	100%	1.8	54.2%	4.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.19	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	121	504	154	45	7	92%	5.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	1.7%	3.36	3.36	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	121	504	154	45	7	92%	5.0	30.6%	8.9%	21.6%	1.4%	3.36	2.42	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	123	517	141	37	14	100%	4.9	27.3%	7.2%	20.1%	2.8%	3.43	3.23	+2.5
2021	24	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	123	517	141	37	14	100%	4.9	27.3%	7.2%	20.1%	2.7%	3.43	3.19	+2.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	641	194	37	19	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.5%	3.0%	2.54	2.95	+4.1
2022	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	641	194	37	19	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.5%	3.0%	2.54	2.92	+4.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	21	21	115	469	121	41	15	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.3%	3.29	3.83	+1.5
2023	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	21	21	115	469	121	41	15	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.3%	3.29	3.83	+1.5
2023	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	21	21	115	469	121	41	15	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.2%	3.29	3.76	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	7.99	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	7.99	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	9.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	98	523	2114	562	154	58	100%	5.3	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.7%	3.10	3.28	+10.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	121	496	108	39	10	100%	4.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.27	3.44	+2.2
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	121	496	108	39	10	100%	4.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.27	3.44	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	TB	1	1	3	9	2	0	0	100%	3.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	TB	24	24	118	487	106	39	10	100%	4.9	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.36	3.40	+2.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	TB	24	24	118	487	106	39	10	100%	4.9	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.36	3.40	+2.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	2	9	2	1	0	100%	2.2	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.9%	3.72	3.83	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	3.0%	3.77	3.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	123	505	110	40	10	—	—	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	2.0%	3.28	3.44	+2.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	120	508	110	40	10	—	—	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	2.0%	3.36	3.37	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	447	101	39	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	2.8%	4.09	4.21	+0.9
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	99	417	91	38	13	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.44	+0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	91	386	81	37	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.70	+0.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	84	354	71	35	13	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	3.5%	4.80	4.98	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	106	448	101	39	13	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.14	4.26	+0.9
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	99	418	91	38	13	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.49	+0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	81	36	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.75	+0.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	84	355	71	35	13	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	3.6%	4.86	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	162	905	3728	908	304	110	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.9%	3.67	3.69	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	824	201	67	24	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.9%	3.67	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		130	128	657	2670	699	210	70	98%	5.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.14	3.33	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	813	213	64	21	98%	5.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.14	3.33	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane McClanahan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	25.6%	9.0%	3.1%	—	4.44	21.8%	12.7%	296	+0.27	—	—	—
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	73
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	71
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	69
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	68
Alejandro Astorga L 2016 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	15.0%	9.1%	1.4%	.290	4.01	14.4%	6.2%	116	+0.29	3.72	311	67
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,041	66
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	66
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	66
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	66
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	65
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	65
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	64
Brad Mills L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	14.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.294	6.13	14.4%	2.6%	44	+1.50	4.63	182	63
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	63
Eric Jokisch L 2018 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	16.3%	7.4%	2.1%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	412	63
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	63
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	63
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	62
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	62
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	97	22.3%	9.2%	1.21	4.33
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34