Shane McClanahan
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8393vR 102
ERA3.41
FIP3.53
K%24.0%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p520.310
SL+2.3 (20%)
CU (14%)
FB-0.9 (37%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 54.2% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.95 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 54.2% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.19 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 121 | 504 | 154 | 45 | 7 | 92% | 5.0 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.36 | 3.35 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 121 | 504 | 154 | 45 | 7 | 92% | 5.0 | 30.6% | 8.9% | 21.6% | 1.4% | 3.36 | 2.42 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 25 | 123 | 517 | 141 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.3% | 7.2% | 20.1% | 2.9% | 3.43 | 3.28 | +3.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 25 | 123 | 517 | 141 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.3% | 7.2% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 3.43 | 3.19 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 166 | 641 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 24.5% | 3.1% | 2.54 | 3.00 | +4.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 166 | 641 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 24.5% | 3.0% | 2.54 | 2.92 | +4.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 21 | 21 | 115 | 469 | 121 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.89 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 21 | 21 | 115 | 469 | 121 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.76 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 10.80 | 7.99 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 10.80 | 9.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 17 | 17 | 86 | 354 | 82 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 2.83 | 3.08 | +2.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 3.41 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 3.37 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 143 | 596 | 140 | 48 | 12 | — | — | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 3.26 | +3.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 143 | 605 | 140 | 48 | 12 | — | — | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 3.04 | 3.24 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 106 | 447 | 105 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 99 | 417 | 95 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 91 | 386 | 85 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 84 | 354 | 75 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.87 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 322 | 72 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 62 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 5.07 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 105 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 95 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.29 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 85 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.54 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 75 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 71 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 190 | 1073 | 4439 | 1090 | 374 | 131 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 3.71 | +21.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 828 | 203 | 70 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 122 | 120 | 622 | 2528 | 673 | 198 | 67 | 98% | 5.1 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 2.7% | 3.07 | 3.30 | +15.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 813 | 217 | 64 | 22 | 98% | 5.1 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 2.7% | 3.07 | 3.30 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane McClanahan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 25.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.33 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 296 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 70 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 68 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 67 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 66 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 66 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 65 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.59 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .301 | 4.33 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 248 | -0.26 | 3.29 | 915 | 65 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .290 | 4.17 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.78 | 311 | 64 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 63 |
| J.A. Happ L 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.28 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .308 | 3.72 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.44 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 63 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.25 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.45 | 25.7% | 16.5% | 425 | +1.20 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 63 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2028 · 3.07 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.07 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.65 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.58 | 3.07 | 650 | 63 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 63 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 63 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.80 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 412 | 62 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 62 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 62 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.84 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 440 | 61 |
| John Gast L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.80 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 122 | 61 |
| Brad Mills L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 91 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 1.27 | 4.40 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |