Shane McClanahan
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+1.5
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.5 · 2026
ERA3.85
FIP4.22
xFIP4.51
SIERA4.70
K%24.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%15.3%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
SL+2.3 (23%)
CU (12%)
FB-0.9 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 24 | 22 | 121 | 504 | 154 | 45 | 7 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 3.36 | 3.36 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 25 | 123 | 517 | 141 | 37 | 14 | 27.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.43 | 3.26 | +2.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 28 | 28 | 166 | 641 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.54 | 2.93 | +4.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 21 | 21 | 115 | 469 | 121 | 41 | 15 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 3.70 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 22.0% | 18.6% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 98 | 40 | 11 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 3.60 | 3.86 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 105 | 444 | 111 | 51 | 12 | 25.1% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 3.65 | 3.95 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 100 | 42 | 12 | 25.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.34 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 87 | 38 | 11 | 24.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 82 | 32 | 10 | 25.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 71 | 29 | 9 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TB | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TB | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TB | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 106 | 549 | 2233 | 604 | 181 | 60 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.13 | 3.31 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 813 | 220 | 66 | 22 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.13 | 3.31 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane McClanahan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 26.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.36 | 25.0% | 14.6% | 255 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 76 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 74 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 74 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 74 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 74 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 73 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 73 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.72 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.13 | 3.74 | 333 | 72 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.73 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.01 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.28 | 3.73 | 311 | 72 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 454 | 72 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 72 |
| James Gillheeney L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 71 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 71 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 70 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 70 |
| John Anderson L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 70 |
| John Gast L 2023 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 69 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 69 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 69 |
| Kyle Hald L 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 66 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.919 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.5 | $12M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.0 | $8M | +$1M |
| Totals | $11M | $20M | +$9M | ||