Franklin Arias — OGILVIE

Franklin AriasSS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION309 act + 206 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†112

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .324 / .439

PA206

HR7

K%16

BB%6

BABIP293

ISO169

MLB%6%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.4	$25M	+$24M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.9	$27M	+$26M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+4.3	$27M	+$27M
2030	Arb-1	$9M	+4.6	$27M	+$21M
2031	Arb-2	$16M	+4.8	$26M	+$17M
2032	Arb-3	$24M	+4.9	$25M	+$12M
Totals		$52M		$158M	+$127M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	145	40	7	1	1	11	21	3	3	2	276	340	359	698	83	317	13	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	2 teams	—	372	332	79	17	1	8	32	95	5	35	6	238	314	367	682	130	306	26	9	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	2 teams	—	372	314	97	25	2	9	50	65	5	35	6	309	412	487	899	178	362	17	13	397	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+	3 teams	—	526	495	117	19	1	5	22	80	5	12	9	236	276	309	585	73	271	15	4	259	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+	3 teams	—	526	479	133	27	1	8	38	53	5	12	9	278	337	388	725	111	296	10	7	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	AA	BOS	—	309	279	81	14	1	17	20	53	7	5	2	290	353	530	883	240	302	17	6	380	149	+17	+0	+0	+3	+9	3.0
YTD	20	AA	BOS	—	309	265	86	16	1	18	34	41	7	5	2	325	415	596	1.011	272	325	13	11	436	192	+32	+0	+0	+3	+9	4.5
ROS	20	AA	BOS	6%	206	189	51	9	1	7	12	33	3	3	2	270	324	439	763	169	288	16	6	332	112	+3	-0	+1	+2	+6	1.2
ROS	20	MLB	BOS	6%	12	11	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	273	333	364	697	91	295	17	8	326	107	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
FULL	20	AA	BOS	—	321	290	84	15	1	17	21	55	7	5	2	290	352	524	876	234	303	17	7	378	147	+17	+0	+0	+3	+9	3.1
TOT	20	AA	BOS	—	515	468	132	23	2	24	32	86	10	8	4	282	341	494	835	212	298	17	6	361	134	+20	+0	+1	+6	+15	4.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BOS	51%	570	523	140	25	2	20	34	91	8	8	4	268	322	438	760	170	286	16	6	332	112	+8	+0	+3	+6	+16	3.4
2028	22	MLB	BOS	69%	597	545	147	26	2	22	38	94	9	9	4	270	328	446	774	176	287	16	6	338	117	+12	+0	+4	+6	+17	3.9
2029	23	MLB	BOS	77%	615	561	151	27	2	23	40	96	9	9	4	269	328	447	775	178	288	16	7	343	121	+14	+0	+4	+7	+17	4.3
2030	24	MLB	BOS	78%	627	571	155	28	2	24	42	97	9	9	4	271	331	454	785	182	289	15	7	347	124	+17	+0	+4	+7	+18	4.6
2031	25	MLB	BOS	79%	634	577	158	28	2	25	43	97	9	9	4	274	334	459	793	185	289	15	7	349	125	+18	+0	+4	+7	+18	4.8
2032	26	MLB	BOS	79%	639	581	159	28	2	26	44	98	9	9	4	274	334	463	797	189	289	15	7	350	126	+19	+0	+4	+7	+18	4.9
2033	27	MLB	BOS	78%	637	578	159	28	2	26	45	98	9	9	4	275	337	465	802	190	289	15	7	351	126	+19	+0	+4	+7	+18	4.9
2034	28	MLB	BOS	77%	631	572	156	28	2	25	45	98	9	9	4	273	335	460	795	187	288	16	7	350	126	+18	+0	+3	+7	+18	4.7
2035	29	MLB	BOS	75%	621	563	153	27	2	24	44	97	9	8	4	272	334	455	789	183	288	16	7	348	124	+17	+0	+2	+7	+18	4.5
2036	30	MLB	BOS	74%	609	551	149	26	2	24	44	97	9	8	4	270	334	456	790	185	287	16	7	346	123	+16	+0	+2	+7	+17	4.2
2037	31	MLB	BOS	79%	595	539	145	25	2	23	43	97	8	7	3	269	332	451	783	182	285	16	7	342	120	+13	+0	+1	+6	+17	3.8
2038	32	MLB	BOS	83%	576	522	137	24	1	21	41	96	8	6	3	262	326	433	759	170	283	17	7	336	115	+10	+0	-0	+6	+16	3.3
2039	33	MLB	BOS	86%	547	496	128	21	1	20	39	94	7	5	2	258	321	425	746	167	279	17	7	329	110	+6	+0	-1	+6	+15	2.7
2040	34	MLB	BOS	82%	499	454	113	18	1	17	35	89	7	4	2	249	312	405	718	156	274	18	7	320	103	+2	+0	-2	+5	+14	2.0
2041	35	MLB	BOS	77%	443	403	97	15	1	14	31	82	6	3	1	241	305	387	692	146	268	19	7	309	95	-3	+0	-3	+5	+13	1.2
2042	36	MLB	BOS	68%	382	348	82	12	1	12	26	74	5	2	1	236	298	379	677	144	262	19	7	298	86	-6	+0	-4	+4	+11	0.5
2043	37	MLB	BOS	59%	316	288	65	9	1	9	21	63	4	2	1	226	288	358	645	132	256	20	7	286	77	-8	+0	-5	+3	+9	-0.1
2044	38	MLB	BOS	45%	247	226	49	6	1	6	16	51	3	1	1	217	278	332	609	115	249	21	6	274	68	-9	-0	-6	+3	+7	-0.6
2027	21	MLB	BOS	51%	290	267	72	13	1	10	17	46	4	4	2	270	323	438	761	169	292	16	6	327	108	+3	+0	+2	+3	+8	1.6
2028	22	MLB	BOS	69%	413	378	103	19	1	15	26	65	6	6	3	272	329	447	776	175	294	16	6	333	113	+6	+0	+2	+4	+12	2.5
2029	23	MLB	BOS	77%	472	431	118	22	1	18	31	74	7	7	3	274	333	455	787	181	294	16	7	338	117	+9	+0	+3	+5	+13	3.1
2030	24	MLB	BOS	78%	490	447	124	23	2	19	33	76	7	7	3	277	337	465	802	188	295	16	7	342	120	+11	+0	+3	+5	+14	3.4
2031	25	MLB	BOS	79%	499	455	127	23	2	20	34	76	7	7	3	279	339	470	809	191	295	15	7	344	122	+12	+0	+3	+5	+14	3.6
2032	26	MLB	BOS	79%	505	458	129	24	2	20	35	77	7	7	3	282	342	474	816	192	295	15	7	345	123	+13	+0	+3	+5	+14	3.7
2033	27	MLB	BOS	78%	494	449	126	23	2	20	35	76	7	7	3	281	342	474	817	194	295	15	7	346	123	+13	+0	+3	+5	+14	3.6
2034	28	MLB	BOS	77%	485	441	121	22	1	19	34	75	7	7	3	274	336	458	794	184	295	15	7	345	122	+12	+0	+2	+5	+14	3.4
2035	29	MLB	BOS	75%	464	421	116	21	1	18	33	73	7	6	3	276	338	458	797	183	295	16	7	343	121	+11	+0	+2	+5	+13	3.1
2036	30	MLB	BOS	74%	448	407	111	20	1	17	32	71	6	6	3	273	335	452	787	179	294	16	7	341	119	+10	+0	+1	+5	+13	2.9
2037	31	MLB	BOS	79%	472	428	116	21	1	18	34	77	7	5	3	271	335	451	786	180	292	16	7	337	116	+9	-0	+1	+5	+13	2.8
2038	32	MLB	BOS	83%	480	436	117	21	1	18	34	80	7	5	2	268	331	445	776	177	289	17	7	331	112	+6	+0	-0	+5	+14	2.6
2039	33	MLB	BOS	86%	471	429	112	19	1	17	33	81	6	4	2	261	323	429	752	168	286	17	7	324	106	+3	+0	-1	+5	+13	2.1
2040	34	MLB	BOS	82%	407	370	95	16	1	14	29	72	5	3	2	257	319	419	738	162	280	18	7	315	99	-0	-0	-2	+4	+12	1.4
2041	35	MLB	BOS	77%	341	310	77	12	1	11	24	63	4	2	1	248	311	400	711	152	274	18	7	305	91	-3	+0	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2042	36	MLB	BOS	68%	260	237	56	8	1	8	18	50	3	2	1	236	298	380	678	143	268	19	7	293	83	-5	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2043	37	MLB	BOS	59%	187	171	39	6	0	5	12	38	2	1	0	228	286	351	637	123	261	20	6	281	73	-6	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.1
2044	38	MLB	BOS	45%	111	102	22	3	0	3	7	23	1	1	0	216	273	333	606	118	254	21	6	269	64	-5	+0	-3	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7301	6648	1784	317	20	270	502	1195	100	87	40	268	329	444	773	176	290	16	7	332	112	+99	+1	+12	+78	+207	40.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	159	28	2	24	45	106	9	8	4	269	330	444	774	176	290	16	7	332	112	+9	+0	+1	+7	+18	3.6
Career	—			—	11048	10059	2630	453	33	382	748	1838	153	170	73	261	322	427	749	166	285	17	7	330	111	+134	+5	+14	+118	+313	59.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	155	27	2	22	44	108	9	10	4	262	322	426	748	164	286	17	7	330	111	+8	+0	+1	+7	+18	3.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	167	+12	-0	—	—	+5	1.7
2024	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	166	148	38	9	0	3	16	29	1	5	2	257	333	378	712	122	299	17	10	321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	206	166	59	16	2	6	34	36	4	30	4	355	475	584	1.060	229	421	17	17	459	210	+25	+4	—	—	+6	3.6
2025	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	48	46	12	2	0	2	0	6	0	1	1	261	261	435	696	174	250	12	0	291	81	-1	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	392	355	94	21	1	6	32	35	3	7	7	265	331	380	711	115	278	9	8	320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+11	1.1
2025	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	86	78	27	4	0	0	6	12	2	4	1	346	407	397	804	51	409	14	7	368	139	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	14	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
	/162	664	18	2	267	329	423	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#2Brandon Phillipslast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,896 PA	13	7,896	210	209	276	320	422	+28	+83	41.5	36.8
	/162	664	18	18	276	320	422	+2.4	+7.0	3.5	pk7: 32
#3Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	11	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.3	32.4
	/162	664	26	6	251	321	442	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
#4Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	7,308	271	88	265	322	440	+67	+55	40.2	31.7
	/162	664	25	8	265	322	440	+6.0	+5.0	3.7	pk7: 23
#5Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#6Starlin Castrolast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,579 PA	12	6,579	138	89	280	319	412	+50	+63	33.0	29.4
	/162	664	14	9	280	319	412	+5.1	+6.3	3.3	pk7: 26

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franklin Arias (OGILVIE)	20	54→60	34→42	42	50	282/341/494	212	298	24	8	17%	6%	134	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Antonio Lamas 2010 · AAA	20	53→60	39→50	43→50	41	251/293/336	85	309	6	7	21%	4%	76	+0.0	257/287/352	95	308	6	10	18%	3%	77	+0.1	291/344/423	131	318	14	14	13%	6%	115	+1.9
●Luis Urías 2017 · AAA	20	58→63	38→55	39→45	50	274/328/357	83	298	5	8	10%	6%	95	+1.4	255/325/360	105	311	8	6	19%	8%	95	+1.4	232/333/399	167	273	21	3	22%	11%	108	+1.7
●Thairo Estrada 2018 · AA	22	55→59	41→55	43→55	45	265/307/361	96	304	8	9	16%	5%	88	+0.9	232/273/341	109	282	10	10	21%	4%	69	-0.4	280/334/443	164	322	19	21	19%	6%	118	+2.4
✕Jairo Marquez 2008 · A	20	52	41→40	45	49	251/309/347	97	277	8	5	13%	6%	85	+0.7	224/275/317	93	252	7	6	14%	5%	63	-0.8	206/259/284	79	226	6	6	12%	6%	45	-0.5
●Wander Franco 2021 · A	20	53→57	44→55	47→55	52	258/312/380	122	278	10	10	12%	7%	95	+1.4	271/327/431	160	294	14	14	13%	7%	115	+2.7	277/337/454	176	296	17	20	12%	8%	121	+2.4
✕Ulises Montilla 2012 · A	20	54	38→45	44→50	54	253/315/342	89	278	4	9	10%	8%	86	+0.8	235/293/328	93	276	4	9	15%	7%	74	-0.1	230/290/330	99	271	4	10	15%	6%	73	-0.1
●Alex Verdugo 2017 · AA	21	52→58	44→50	43→45	45	253/291/372	118	286	12	6	16%	5%	84	+0.6	268/317/385	117	305	11	8	15%	6%	98	+1.6	285/346/439	154	321	16	7	16%	8%	120	+2.1
●Angel Salome 2007 · A	21	52→62	46→50	47→45	44	255/293/389	134	292	13	6	18%	5%	90	+1.0	275/311/411	136	324	13	4	19%	5%	103	+1.9	290/327/428	138	344	13	2	19%	5%	113	+1.5
●Isaac Paredes 2020 · AA	21	47→49	42→60	44→40	48	227/289/332	104	262	10	4	18%	6%	73	-0.1	228/303/360	132	260	15	3	18%	9%	87	+0.8	242/348/439	196	257	26	1	17%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Gabriel Moreno 2019 · A	19	48	41→45	46→45	43	230/265/333	103	261	7	6	15%	4%	63	-0.9	240/287/381	141	277	14	6	18%	5%	85	+0.7	277/360/410	133	318	13	6	16%	11%	119	+1.6
●Wilson Ramos 2008 · A	20	47→57	43→60	45→30	40	232/271/342	111	286	10	4	23%	4%	69	-0.4	244/281/363	119	307	12	2	24%	4%	78	+0.2	288/335/471	183	313	25	0	17%	7%	125	+2.3
●Omar Infante 2003 · MLB	21	54→64	46→55	44→50	48	266/314/393	127	298	14	8	16%	6%	100	+1.7	241/292/364	123	281	11	13	18%	7%	82	+0.5	289/322/418	129	309	11	9	10%	4%	106	+2.1
●Ramon Rios 2009 · AAA	21	56→66	39→40	44→50	44	263/297/354	91	290	5	12	12%	3%	82	+0.5	257/286/338	81	284	5	7	11%	3%	72	-0.2	317/340/395	78	342	6	8	9%	2%	106	+1.6
●Iván Herrera 2021 · A	21	47→56	41→50	46→50	44	227/287/322	95	297	10	4	26%	7%	70	-0.3	219/300/350	131	287	15	7	28%	9%	84	+0.6	276/369/436	160	338	18	13	22%	11%	130	+2.7
✕Jasson Atondo 2016 · AAA	20	50→60	39→30	48→50	44	239/272/332	93	276	6	9	16%	4%	65	-0.7	221/259/306	85	259	6	11	17%	5%	53	-1.5	292/319/347	56	322	3	12	10%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Kelvin Diaz 2007 · A	20	55	47→50	43→45	46	269/336/406	137	313	15	6	19%	6%	114	+2.7	242/308/373	131	284	12	8	19%	6%	92	+1.2	235/304/375	139	272	12	10	18%	6%	91	+0.5
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	53→58	41→45	46→50	52	253/323/352	98	306	9	15	19%	9%	92	+1.2	232/301/330	98	277	8	10	18%	9%	78	+0.2	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
●Jonathan Schoop 2012 · A	20	50→57	41→60	46→45	45	240/283/345	106	281	8	7	18%	5%	74	-0.1	225/272/350	125	275	14	5	23%	5%	72	-0.2	265/304/452	186	306	25	1	22%	4%	111	+2.3
★Jean Segura 2010 · AAA	20	52→62	39→50	53→60	46	247/287/335	88	281	6	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	256/292/362	106	307	8	25	18%	5%	82	+0.5	306/353/448	141	340	13	24	13%	6%	126	+3.7
●Martín Prado 2006 · AA	22	53→63	39→50	45	45	252/292/337	86	304	6	10	19%	6%	75	-0.0	268/308/355	87	314	5	7	15%	6%	86	+0.8	302/353/449	148	332	12	4	12%	7%	127	+2.9