Franklin Arias — OGILVIE

Franklin AriasSS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 4.0 · 2032

wRC+†134

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .296 / .354

PA320

HR6

SB6

K%16

BB%6

MLB%6%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

54↗61

PWR

35↗42

SPD

45→45

FLD

54↗60

EYE

43↗48

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.6peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$23M	+$22M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+3.2	$28M	+$27M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.6	$32M	+$32M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+3.9	$36M	+$28M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+4.0	$38M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+4.0	$39M	+$19M
Totals		$44M		$197M	+$153M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	159	145	40	7	1	1	11	21	3	3	2	.276	.340	.359	.698	.083	.317	13	7	.304	91	-2	-0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2024	18	ROK	2 teams	372	332	80	18	1	8	32	93	5	35	6	.241	.317	.373	.691	.133	.308	25	9	.301	89	-5	+5	+0	+4	+11	1.5
2025	19	A+	3 teams	526	496	117	21	1	7	21	74	5	12	9	.236	.274	.325	.599	.089	.263	14	4	.260	57	-26	-1	+0	+6	+15	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	54	47	20	4	0	6	3	5	3	1	1	.426	.491	.894	1.384	.468	.378	9	6	.555	283	+11	-0	+0	+1	+2	1.3
ROS	20	MLB	BOS	266	244	64	12	1	7	16	40	4	5	3	.262	.318	.406	.724	.143	.288	15	6	.321	104	+1	-0	+2	+3	+8	1.3
TOT	20	MLB	BOS	320	291	84	16	1	13	19	45	7	6	4	.289	.347	.485	.832	.196	.302	14	6	.361	134	+12	-0	+2	+3	+9	2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 24%	BOS	563	515	132	25	2	12	35	88	8	11	6	.256	.314	.383	.696	.126	.282	16	6	.306	92	-5	-0	+3	+6	+16	2.1
2028	22	MLB 45%	BOS	616	561	143	27	2	14	41	95	9	12	6	.255	.316	.385	.701	.130	.283	15	7	.313	98	-1	+0	+4	+7	+17	2.7
2029	23	MLB 63%	BOS	653	592	153	29	2	16	46	100	10	13	6	.258	.323	.395	.718	.137	.284	15	7	.320	103	+2	+0	+4	+7	+19	3.2
2030	24	MLB 80%	BOS	677	612	159	30	2	18	50	103	10	13	6	.260	.326	.404	.729	.144	.284	15	7	.324	106	+5	+0	+4	+7	+19	3.6
2031	25	MLB 94%	BOS	690	622	161	30	2	18	53	104	10	13	6	.259	.327	.400	.727	.141	.285	15	8	.327	109	+7	+0	+4	+7	+20	3.9
2032	26	MLB	BOS	695	626	163	30	2	19	54	104	10	12	5	.260	.329	.406	.735	.145	.285	15	8	.329	110	+8	+0	+4	+7	+20	4.0
2033	27	MLB	BOS	694	624	163	30	2	19	55	105	10	12	5	.261	.331	.407	.738	.146	.285	15	8	.329	110	+8	+0	+4	+7	+20	4.0
2034	28	MLB	BOS	688	618	161	30	2	18	55	105	10	11	5	.261	.331	.403	.734	.142	.285	15	8	.328	109	+7	+0	+3	+7	+19	3.8
2035	29	MLB	BOS	677	608	157	29	2	18	54	106	10	10	4	.258	.329	.401	.730	.143	.285	16	8	.326	108	+6	+0	+3	+7	+19	3.6
2036	30	MLB	BOS	666	597	153	28	2	17	54	106	10	9	4	.256	.328	.395	.724	.139	.284	16	8	.323	106	+4	+0	+2	+7	+19	3.3
2037	31	MLB	BOS	652	586	149	27	2	16	52	107	9	7	3	.254	.325	.389	.714	.135	.283	16	8	.320	103	+2	+0	+1	+7	+18	3.0
2038	32	MLB	BOS	633	568	142	26	1	15	51	107	9	5	3	.250	.322	.379	.700	.129	.282	17	8	.316	100	-0	-0	+0	+7	+18	2.5
2039	33	MLB	BOS	604	543	134	24	1	14	48	106	8	4	3	.247	.317	.372	.689	.125	.282	18	8	.310	96	-3	-0	-1	+6	+17	2.0
2040	34	MLB	BOS	555	499	122	22	1	12	44	102	7	4	4	.244	.315	.365	.679	.120	.281	18	8	.304	91	-6	-1	-2	+6	+16	1.4
2041	35	MLB	BOS	497	448	107	19	1	10	39	96	7	4	4	.239	.310	.353	.662	.114	.279	19	8	.297	86	-8	-1	-3	+5	+14	0.8
2042	36	MLB	BOS	435	393	92	16	1	8	33	89	6	4	5	.234	.303	.341	.644	.107	.278	20	8	.289	79	-10	-1	-4	+5	+12	0.2
2043	37	MLB	BOS	369	333	76	13	1	6	28	79	5	3	5	.228	.298	.327	.625	.099	.275	21	8	.280	72	-12	-1	-5	+4	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11687	10562	2668	493	32	273	872	1930	165	202	100	.253	.319	.383	.702	.130	.285	17	7	.313	98	-27	+0	+25	+125	+331	46.4
/ 162G	—			650	587	148	27	2	15	48	107	9	11	6	.252	.318	.382	.699	.129	.284	16	7	.313	98	-2	-0	+1	+7	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	.350	.440	.453	.893	.102	.385	9	12	.404	167	+12	-0	—	—	+5	1.7
2024	18	A	Salem Red Sox	166	148	38	9	0	3	16	29	1	5	2	.257	.333	.378	.712	.122	.299	17	10	.321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	206	166	59	16	2	6	34	36	4	30	4	.355	.475	.584	1.060	.229	.421	17	17	.459	210	+25	+4	—	—	+6	3.6
2025	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	48	46	12	2	0	2	0	6	0	1	1	.261	.261	.435	.696	.174	.250	12	0	.291	81	-1	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	19	A+	Greenville Drive	392	355	94	21	1	6	32	35	3	7	7	.265	.331	.380	.711	.115	.278	9	8	.320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+11	1.1
2025	19	A	Salem Red Sox	86	78	27	4	0	0	6	12	2	4	1	.346	.407	.397	.804	.051	.409	14	7	.368	139	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franklin Arias (OGILVIE)	20	54→61	35→42	45	48	.245/.296/.354	.109	.279	6	6	16%	6%	82	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Thairo Estrada 2017 · A	21	51→61	41→50	47→55	44	.246/.290/.344	.098	.294	9	12	20%	6%	76	+0.1	.254/.295/.350	.096	.300	8	9	18%	5%	80	+0.4	.270/.326/.420	.150	.314	17	21	19%	5%	108	+1.8
●Antonio Lamas 2010 · AAA	20	52→60	39→50	43→50	41	.249/.291/.336	.087	.306	7	7	21%	4%	75	-0.0	.259/.290/.356	.097	.308	7	9	18%	3%	79	+0.3	.292/.344/.421	.129	.319	14	14	13%	6%	116	+1.9
✕Jasson Atondo 2016 · AAA	20	50→60	40→30	49→50	44	.238/.274/.335	.097	.276	7	10	17%	5%	67	-0.5	.221/.259/.307	.086	.258	6	11	16%	5%	53	-1.5	.285/.313/.342	.057	.315	3	12	10%	4%	79	+0.1
✕Jairo Marquez 2008 · A	20	52	41→40	45	49	.248/.307/.345	.096	.276	8	5	13%	6%	84	+0.6	.225/.278/.317	.092	.252	7	6	14%	6%	65	-0.7	.206/.259/.284	.079	.226	6	6	12%	6%	45	-0.5
✕Ulises Montilla 2012 · A	20	54	38→45	44→50	54	.250/.313/.337	.087	.275	4	9	11%	8%	85	+0.7	.237/.296/.329	.092	.276	4	9	15%	7%	75	-0.0	.230/.290/.330	.099	.271	4	10	15%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Ramon Rios 2009 · AAA	21	55→65	39→40	44→50	44	.259/.295/.353	.094	.287	5	12	12%	4%	81	+0.4	.258/.287/.341	.083	.285	5	8	11%	3%	74	-0.1	.317/.341/.393	.076	.342	5	8	9%	2%	105	+1.6
●J.P. Crawford 2016 · AA	21	52→58	41→45	48→50	53	.248/.314/.348	.100	.291	8	13	17%	8%	88	+0.9	.222/.296/.324	.102	.270	9	9	20%	9%	75	-0.0	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	46→56	45→55	47→55	44	.228/.280/.353	.125	.279	13	12	23%	6%	75	-0.0	.252/.301/.407	.155	.311	13	18	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.264/.316/.431	.166	.317	14	20	20%	6%	106	+2.0
✕Luis Santana 2019 · A	20	54	40→45	51→50	50	.254/.323/.352	.098	.288	6	10	14%	7%	93	+1.3	.228/.295/.318	.090	.283	7	8	21%	6%	73	-0.1	.212/.267/.344	.132	.272	16	8	27%	5%	64	-0.4
●Ramón Urías 2016 · AAA	22	53→61	43→50	45→50	43	.258/.307/.368	.111	.301	11	12	18%	4%	91	+1.1	.259/.324/.390	.131	.310	13	12	20%	5%	104	+2.0	.258/.330/.410	.151	.312	16	10	21%	6%	108	+1.2
✕Ronald Torreyes 2013 · A	20	56→57	40→45	50	48	.263/.308/.362	.100	.279	6	12	9%	4%	89	+0.9	.244/.286/.326	.082	.265	4	9	9%	4%	69	-0.4	.268/.299/.348	.080	.304	3	3	13%	4%	77	+0.1
✕Colton Welker 2018 · A	20	52→55	42→45	42→45	41	.251/.286/.360	.110	.300	10	7	20%	4%	79	+0.3	.239/.279/.343	.104	.311	9	5	25%	5%	72	-0.2	.224/.269/.327	.104	.294	10	3	27%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Sherman Lacrus 2014 · A	20	51	39→30	47→50	48	.241/.316/.320	.079	.276	7	9	15%	6%	82	+0.5	.218/.285/.305	.087	.262	7	7	19%	7%	66	-0.6	.189/.251/.275	.086	.232	6	6	21%	6%	42	-0.7
✕Albert Almora Jr. 2014 · A	20	52→59	41→45	48→50	44	.249/.286/.354	.104	.288	7	8	16%	4%	77	+0.1	.242/.270/.351	.109	.282	8	7	17%	3%	69	-0.4	.277/.310/.391	.114	.323	9	5	17%	4%	94	+0.9
●Starlin Castro 2010 · AA	20	53→63	38→50	52→50	44	.249/.287/.333	.084	.293	4	16	17%	5%	72	-0.2	.283/.323/.395	.112	.327	6	16	15%	5%	103	+1.9	.292/.333/.416	.124	.331	8	18	14%	5%	106	+2.4
●Luis Urías 2017 · AAA	20	58→63	38→55	40→45	50	.272/.326/.350	.078	.297	5	8	10%	6%	93	+1.3	.257/.326/.358	.101	.310	8	6	18%	8%	95	+1.4	.241/.328/.410	.169	.287	20	6	22%	9%	107	+1.6
✕Jairo Perez 2009 · A	21	47	41→50	46→50	47	.224/.299/.330	.106	.265	8	9	18%	6%	79	+0.3	.224/.291/.333	.109	.262	9	9	18%	7%	75	-0.0	.267/.323/.417	.150	.303	17	8	17%	5%	108	+1.1
✕Edgardo Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	48	42→45	48→30	43	.235/.285/.340	.105	.278	9	5	19%	5%	74	-0.1	.202/.244/.278	.076	.296	6	5	32%	5%	40	-2.4	.181/.205/.232	.051	.258	9	0	33%	2%	11	-0.8
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	52→62	42→50	53→55	48	.250/.318/.360	.110	.306	9	11	21%	7%	93	+1.3	.269/.332/.397	.128	.319	12	17	19%	7%	108	+2.3	.268/.333/.391	.123	.317	12	18	19%	7%	103	+1.6
✕Gabriel Moreno 2019 · A	19	48	40→45	46→45	43	.228/.263/.327	.099	.258	7	7	15%	4%	60	-1.0	.239/.285/.381	.142	.269	14	6	17%	5%	85	+0.7	.295/.351/.419	.124	.354	12	9	19%	7%	118	+1.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)