Franklin Arias — OGILVIE

Franklin AriasSS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.278 / .333 / .444

PA38

HR1

K%16

BB%5

BABIP302

ISO143

MLB%12%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$129M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT61

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.0	$23M	+$23M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.3	$25M	+$25M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.5	$26M	+$25M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+3.5	$24M	+$19M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+3.4	$21M	+$13M
2034	Arb-3	$21M	+3.2	$18M	+$8M
Totals		$48M		$137M	+$112M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	166	148	38	9	0	3	16	29	1	5	2	257	333	378	712	122	299	17	10	321	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	206	166	59	16	2	6	34	36	4	30	4	355	475	584	1.060	229	421	17	17	459	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	48	46	12	2	0	2	0	6	0	1	1	261	261	435	696	174	250	12	0	291	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	392	355	94	21	1	6	32	35	3	7	7	265	331	380	711	115	278	9	8	320	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	86	78	27	4	0	0	6	12	2	4	1	346	407	397	804	51	409	14	7	368	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	188	166	55	11	0	6	16	28	2	4	2	331	397	506	903	175	360	15	9	392	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	332	283	90	17	1	19	37	46	8	5	2	318	412	587	998	269	320	14	11	430	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	143	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	238	314	315	629	77	258	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	166	153	35	7	0	3	11	42	1	5	2	229	285	333	618	105	289	25	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	206	178	46	11	1	5	22	50	4	30	4	258	353	416	769	157	322	24	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	48	46	12	2	0	1	0	7	0	1	1	261	261	370	630	109	261	15	0	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	392	369	84	16	1	5	18	49	3	7	7	228	269	317	586	89	247	12	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	86	80	24	3	0	0	4	17	2	4	1	300	349	338	686	38	378	20	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	188	171	53	10	0	5	11	34	2	4	2	310	359	456	815	146	340	18	6	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	332	296	88	16	1	16	24	56	8	5	2	297	366	520	886	223	309	17	7	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	143	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	238	314	315	629	77	264	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	312	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	372	314	97	25	2	9	50	65	5	35	6	309	412	487	899	178	362	17	13	397	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	495	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	242	282	325	607	83	271	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	526	479	133	27	1	8	38	53	5	12	9	278	337	388	725	111	296	10	7	325	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	468	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	301	361	496	857	194	329	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	520	449	145	28	1	25	53	74	10	9	4	323	406	557	963	234	335	14	10	416	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	142	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	239	314	317	631	77	258	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	307	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	494	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	243	282	326	608	83	270	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	471	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	299	361	493	854	193	320	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	307	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	494	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	243	282	326	608	83	270	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	471	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	299	361	493	854	193	320	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	12%	630	577	157	29	2	21	39	98	9	10	4	270	326	433	759	163	292	16	6	335	113	+10	+0	+4	+7	+14	2.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	12%	38	35	9	2	0	1	2	6	1	1	0	278	333	444	777	166	302	16	5	343	113	+1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	63%	568	519	141	26	2	19	36	88	8	10	4	270	326	436	762	166	291	15	6	336	114	+9	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	597	545	148	27	2	21	39	93	8	11	4	271	329	442	772	171	291	16	7	340	116	+12	+1	+4	+6	+13	3.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	615	560	152	28	2	22	42	97	8	11	4	272	331	446	777	174	292	16	7	343	118	+13	+1	+5	+7	+13	3.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	86%	627	571	155	28	2	23	43	99	8	11	4	272	332	447	779	175	292	16	7	343	119	+14	+1	+5	+7	+14	4.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	87%	634	576	157	29	2	23	44	100	9	10	4	272	332	447	779	175	292	16	7	343	119	+14	+0	+5	+7	+14	4.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	634	577	157	29	2	23	44	101	8	10	4	271	331	445	776	174	292	16	7	342	118	+13	+0	+5	+7	+14	4.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	629	572	154	28	2	22	44	102	8	8	4	269	330	440	770	171	291	16	7	340	116	+12	+0	+4	+7	+14	3.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	619	563	151	28	2	21	43	102	8	6	4	267	327	434	761	167	290	16	7	336	114	+10	-0	+4	+7	+13	3.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	609	556	146	27	1	20	41	102	7	5	4	264	324	427	751	163	289	17	7	332	111	+8	-1	+3	+7	+13	3.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	595	543	141	26	1	19	40	102	7	2	7	260	319	418	737	157	287	17	7	326	107	+5	-2	+2	+6	+13	2.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	80%	576	526	135	24	1	18	38	102	7	2	9	255	313	405	718	150	283	18	7	319	102	+1	-3	+1	+6	+12	1.8
2039	33	MLB MLE	BOS	80%	546	500	125	22	1	16	35	100	6	2	10	249	305	390	695	141	279	18	6	309	95	-3	-4	+0	+6	+12	1.2
2040	34	MLB MLE	BOS	75%	499	460	110	18	1	13	31	95	5	2	10	240	296	371	667	131	273	19	6	298	88	-7	-4	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	63%	360	329	91	18	1	12	23	56	5	6	3	277	333	446	780	169	301	16	6	344	114	+6	+0	+2	+4	+8	2.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	483	441	122	25	1	16	32	76	7	9	3	279	336	453	789	174	302	16	7	347	116	+9	+1	+4	+5	+10	3.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	521	474	133	27	2	18	35	82	7	9	4	279	338	456	795	177	303	16	7	350	118	+11	+0	+4	+6	+11	3.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	86%	541	492	138	28	2	19	37	86	7	9	4	279	339	457	797	178	303	16	7	351	119	+12	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	87%	551	501	140	28	2	19	38	87	7	9	4	279	339	457	796	178	302	16	7	351	119	+12	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	541	491	138	28	2	19	38	86	7	8	4	278	338	455	793	176	302	16	7	349	118	+11	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	532	483	133	27	1	18	37	86	7	7	3	277	337	450	787	174	302	16	7	347	116	+10	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	510	464	128	26	1	17	35	84	6	5	3	274	334	445	778	170	301	16	7	343	114	+8	-0	+3	+5	+11	2.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	494	451	122	24	1	16	34	83	6	4	3	272	331	437	768	166	299	17	7	339	111	+6	-0	+2	+5	+11	2.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	479	438	117	23	1	15	32	82	6	1	6	268	326	428	754	160	297	17	7	333	107	+4	-2	+2	+5	+10	1.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	80%	462	424	112	22	1	14	30	82	5	2	7	262	320	415	735	153	293	18	6	326	102	+1	-2	+1	+5	+10	1.5
2039	33	MLB CTX	BOS	80%	437	401	102	19	1	12	28	80	5	2	8	256	312	400	712	144	289	18	6	316	95	-2	-3	+0	+5	+9	0.9
2040	34	MLB CTX	BOS	75%	377	346	87	16	1	10	24	71	4	2	7	247	302	381	683	133	283	19	6	304	88	-6	-2	-1	+4	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6288	5735	1563	311	17	205	423	1041	79	73	59	273	331	440	771	167	300	17	7	340	109	+83	-9	+35	+67	+136	31.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	161	32	2	21	44	108	8	8	6	272	330	438	769	167	300	17	7	340	109	+9	-1	+4	+7	+14	3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	9645	8797	2328	426	26	307	642	1605	125	154	95	265	324	424	747	159	291	17	7	329	109	+106	-11	+44	+86	+175	40.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	158	29	2	21	43	108	8	10	6	266	325	428	753	162	293	17	7	329	109	+8	-1	+4	+7	+14	3.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	11.0	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
/162	664	18	2	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#2Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	9.3	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.4	32.4
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
#3Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#4Starlin Castrolast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	138	89	280	319	412	+50	+63	33.0	29.4
/162	664	14	9	+5.1	+6.3	3.3	pk7: 26
#5Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.5	6,324	212	74	266	321	431	+65	+46	31.5	26.8
/162	664	22	8	+6.8	+4.8	3.3	pk7: 22
#6Alexei Ramirezlast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 5,505 PA	8.3	5,505	115	143	270	307	392	+55	+70	25.4	25.0
/162	664	14	17	+6.7	+8.5	3.1	pk7: 25

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franklin Arias (OGILVIE)	21	56→61	35→44	47→45	53	268/323/429	162	292	11	5	16%	6%	113	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Diaz 2023 · MLB	22	55→59	50→55	42→30	43	277/313/436	159	316	18	3	19%	5%	109	+2.0	262/307/421	159	308	20	2	21%	5%	104	+1.6	259/307/418	159	304	21	0	22%	5%	101	+1.1
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5
●Gabriel Moreno 2022 · AA	22	54→60	53→50	47→45	46	272/326/449	177	307	20	7	19%	6%	118	+2.6	279/338/393	114	335	11	9	19%	8%	108	+1.9	280/361/429	149	314	16	5	15%	10%	126	+2.2
●Wander Franco 2022 · MLB	21	56→60	49→55	49→55	52	276/331/440	164	297	14	9	13%	7%	117	+2.6	272/329/439	167	293	16	20	13%	8%	116	+2.5	276/335/445	169	294	16	27	12%	8%	120	+2.0
●Omar Infante 2003 · MLB	21	54→64	46→55	44→50	48	266/314/393	127	298	14	8	16%	6%	100	+1.3	241/290/364	123	281	11	13	18%	7%	84	+0.1	285/317/412	127	305	11	9	10%	4%	105	+1.6
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→65	48→50	54→55	47	277/339/417	140	321	15	19	19%	6%	115	+2.4	264/329/386	122	318	11	15	19%	7%	104	+1.6	259/326/374	115	315	9	13	20%	8%	98	+0.8
●Maikel Franco 2014 · AA	21	53→58	51→55	43→40	42	269/301/433	164	303	18	3	19%	4%	105	+1.7	258/296/421	163	288	18	3	17%	5%	100	+1.3	250/298/422	172	268	22	1	16%	6%	102	+1.4
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	45	260/311/412	152	306	17	9	21%	6%	103	+1.6	238/317/395	157	283	16	12	21%	9%	101	+1.4	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Angel Salome 2007 · A	21	53→63	46→50	47→45	45	261/299/398	137	299	13	6	18%	5%	95	+1.0	282/319/421	139	333	13	4	18%	5%	108	+1.9	301/338/442	140	357	13	2	19%	5%	119	+1.5
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
●Luis Campusano 2021 · A	22	53→56	47→50	45→30	49	263/319/402	140	300	15	3	18%	7%	103	+1.6	246/301/384	138	299	15	3	22%	6%	93	+0.8	260/336/420	160	301	19	1	20%	10%	113	+1.4
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	47→45	50	248/327/387	140	308	14	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/400	158	294	18	6	23%	9%	107	+1.8	239/331/399	160	283	19	4	21%	10%	109	+1.3
●Jordan Walker 2024 · MLB	22	53→58	51→55	51→50	46	265/331/432	167	333	19	13	25%	8%	116	+2.5	239/297/388	149	309	17	12	27%	7%	93	+0.8	236/293/390	154	305	18	13	28%	7%	92	+0.7
●Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→58	52→40	48→50	51	248/325/415	167	283	19	12	20%	8%	109	+2.0	254/348/353	99	314	9	12	20%	11%	104	+1.6	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
✕Kyle Blanks 2009 · AA	22	53→60	51→55	47→45	45	267/331/431	164	321	19	6	23%	6%	116	+2.5	243/320/416	173	317	20	5	28%	8%	108	+1.9	226/307/411	185	301	21	3	30%	9%	102	+1.0
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	46	262/312/420	158	307	17	16	21%	6%	105	+1.7	253/337/426	173	297	19	14	21%	10%	116	+2.5	246/353/433	188	290	20	15	21%	12%	123	+1.6
✕Andy LaRoche 2007 · AAA	23	53→57	54→55	45	50	271/333/448	178	304	22	8	19%	8%	120	+2.8	249/326/399	150	278	17	7	17%	10%	106	+1.8	240/324/380	140	265	15	5	15%	10%	101	+1.1
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	51→65	49→30	46	252/301/414	162	289	19	9	20%	6%	100	+1.3	208/267/379	171	271	22	3	31%	5%	80	-0.1	229/305/466	236	295	33	0	33%	8%	115	+1.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps