Franklin Arias

SS Portland Sea Dogs
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP60OGV rank#2ETA2028MLB%12%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418A/ROK2 orgs372.309/.412/.48793593—.245/.323/.379
202519AA/A+/A2 orgs526.278/.337/.38881267—.243/.281/.325
202620AAA/AABOS520.323/.406/.557259137—.302/.363/.497
2027PROJ12% MLB21MLBBOS25.278/.333/.445101130.1
2028PROJ60% MLB22MLBBOS299.281/.338/.4551051171.8
2029PROJ76% MLB23MLBBOS408.283/.341/.4611471202.7
Next 3 projected WAR 4.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$9M2033Arb-2$14M2034Arb-3$20M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Z-Con%90
Whiff%89
K%85
Max EV45
Speed43
Chase%37
Career WAR12 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 64, comp-based) · star 29% · didn't stick 32%
CompsJordan Diaz (age 22) · Gabriel Moreno (age 22) · Wander Franco (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†113
AVG/OBP/SLG.278 / .333 / .445
PA25
HR1
K%16
BB%8
BABIP302
ISO174
MLB%12%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +3.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +1.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +1.30+1.3WAR
0.02.04.00.21.82.73.03.23.23.12.927282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$115M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.7$19M+$19M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+3.0$22M+$21M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+3.2$22M+$22M
2032Arb-1$9M+3.2$21M+$15M
2033Arb-2$14M+3.1$18M+$10M
2034Arb-3$20M+2.9$15M+$6M
Totals $46M $117M +$93M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 159137 48911 19143 32 350440453893 102385 912 404 68 — — — — — —
202418 ASalem Red Sox — 166148 38903 16291 52 257333378712 122299 1710 321 68 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Red Sox — 206166 591626 34364 304 3554755841.060 229421 1717 459 113 — — — — — —
202519 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 4846 12202 060 11 261261435696 174250 120 291 78 — — — — — —
202519 A+Greenville Drive — 392355 942116 32353 77 265331380711 115278 98 320 60 — — — — — —
202519 ASalem Red Sox — 8678 27400 6122 41 346407397804 51409 147 368 94 — — — — — —
202620 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 188166 551106 16282 42 331397506903 175360 159 392 122 — — — — — —
202620 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 332283 9017119 37468 52 318412587998 269320 1411 430 145 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 159143 34611 13173 32 238314315629 77258 118 269 68 — — — — — —
202418 A MLESalem Red Sox — 166153 35703 11421 52 229285333618 105289 257 268 68 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 206178 461115 22504 304 258353416769 157322 2411 335 113 — — — — — —
202519 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 4846 12201 070 11 261261370630 109261 150 283 78 — — — — — —
202519 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 392369 841615 18493 77 228269317586 89247 125 257 60 — — — — — —
202519 A MLESalem Red Sox — 8680 24300 4172 41 300349338686 38378 205 307 94 — — — — — —
202620 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 188171 531005 11342 42 310359456815 146340 186 349 122 — — — — — —
202620 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 332296 8816116 24568 52 297366520886 223309 177 382 145 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 159143 34611 13173 32 238314315629 77264 118 269 68 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox Red — 159137 48911 19143 32 350440453893 102385 912 404 68 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 372331 811818 33925 356 245322378700 133312 259 305 93 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAW2 teams — 372314 972529 50655 356 309412487899 178362 1713 397 93 — — — — — —
202519 A+ MLE3 teams — 526495 1202116 22735 129 242282325607 83271 144 268 67 — — — — — —
202519 A+ RAW3 teams — 526479 1332718 38535 129 278337388725 111296 107 325 67 — — — — — —
202620 AA MLE2 teams — 520468 14126121 349010 94 301361496857 194329 177 370 137 — — — — — —
202620 AA RAW2 teams — 520449 14528125 537410 94 323406557963 234335 1410 416 137 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 159142 34611 13173 32 239314317631 77258 118 269 68 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 372331 811818 33925 356 245322378700 133307 259 305 93 — — — — — —
202519 A+ MLE3 teams — 526494 1202116 22735 129 243282326608 83270 144 268 67 — — — — — —
202620 AA MLE2 teams — 520471 14126121 349010 94 299361493854 193320 177 370 137 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 372331 811818 33925 356 245322378700 133307 259 305 93 — — — — — —
202519 A+ MLE3 teams — 526494 1202116 22735 129 243282326608 83270 144 268 67 — — — — — —
202620 AA MLE2 teams — 520471 14126121 349010 94 299361493854 193320 177 370 137 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEBOS 12% 630577 15729221 39989 104 270326434760 163292 166 335 113 +10 +0 +3 +7 +14 1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXBOS 12% 2523 6101 240 00 278333445778 166302 168 343 113 +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEBOS 60% 501457 12523118 32767 94 273331444775 171292 156 342 117 +10 +0 +3 +5 +11 3.1
202923 MLB MLEBOS 76% 537488 13625220 36828 104 275334451785 176293 157 346 120 +13 +0 +4 +6 +12 3.5
203024 MLB MLEBOS 80% 560509 14126221 38868 104 276336454790 179294 157 348 121 +14 +0 +4 +6 +12 3.8
203125 MLB MLEBOS 81% 578525 14426221 40908 104 275336454790 180294 167 348 122 +15 +0 +4 +6 +13 3.9
203226 MLB MLEBOS 82% 590535 14727222 42948 104 273335452787 179293 167 347 121 +15 +0 +5 +6 +13 3.9
203327 MLB MLEBOS 80% 590535 14727222 42958 94 272334450784 177293 167 345 120 +14 +0 +5 +6 +13 3.9
203428 MLB MLEBOS 80% 582528 14326221 41958 84 271332445778 174293 167 343 118 +13 +0 +4 +6 +13 3.6
203529 MLB MLEBOS 77% 565513 13825220 40947 64 268330439769 171292 177 339 116 +11 -0 +3 +6 +12 3.2
203630 MLB MLEBOS 76% 552501 13324119 39937 43 266327432759 166291 177 335 113 +9 -0 +2 +6 +12 2.9
203731 MLB MLEBOS 76% 534486 12823118 37926 26 262322422744 161288 177 329 109 +6 -2 +1 +6 +12 2.3
203832 MLB MLEBOS 75% 511465 11921116 35916 27 257316410726 153285 187 322 104 +2 -2 +0 +5 +11 1.7
203933 MLB MLEBOS 75% 475436 10919114 31875 27 250308395703 144281 187 312 98 -1 -2 -1 +5 +10 1.1
204034 MLB MLEBOS 71% 419385 9315112 27804 27 242299376675 134275 196 301 90 -5 -2 -2 +4 +9 0.4
202822 MLB CTXBOS 60% 299274 7615110 19464 52 281338455793 174303 156 349 117 +6 +0 +2 +3 +6 1.8
202923 MLB CTXBOS 76% 408372 10521114 27626 73 283341461802 179303 157 353 120 +10 +0 +3 +4 +9 2.7
203024 MLB CTXBOS 80% 446407 11523116 30686 83 283343465807 181304 157 355 121 +11 +0 +3 +5 +10 3.0
203125 MLB CTXBOS 81% 468426 12024117 33736 83 282343465807 182304 167 355 122 +12 +0 +4 +5 +10 3.2
203226 MLB CTXBOS 82% 482439 12325117 34776 83 281342462804 181304 167 354 121 +12 +0 +4 +5 +10 3.2
203327 MLB CTXBOS 80% 473430 12024117 34766 83 280341460801 180304 167 352 120 +11 +0 +4 +5 +10 3.1
203428 MLB CTXBOS 80% 463421 11623116 33756 63 278339455795 177303 167 350 118 +10 +0 +3 +5 +10 2.9
203529 MLB CTXBOS 77% 438398 11022115 31736 53 276337449786 173302 177 347 116 +8 -0 +2 +5 +9 2.5
203630 MLB CTXBOS 76% 421384 10521114 29715 33 273333442776 169301 177 342 113 +6 -1 +2 +5 +9 2.2
203731 MLB CTXBOS 76% 404368 10020113 28705 14 269329433761 163299 177 336 109 +4 -1 +1 +4 +9 1.7
203832 MLB CTXBOS 75% 385352 9318112 26684 25 264323420743 156295 187 329 104 +2 -2 +0 +4 +8 1.3
203933 MLB CTXBOS 75% 357326 8416110 24654 26 257315404719 147290 187 319 98 -1 -2 -0 +4 +8 0.8
204034 MLB CTXBOS 71% 296272 671208 19563 15 249305385690 136284 196 307 90 -4 -2 -1 +3 +6 0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 53404869 133426412179 36788067 6446 274333443777 169301 167 344 111 +89 -6 +26 +57 +116 28.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 16232122 451078 86 273333442775 169300 167 344 111 +11 -1 +3 +7 +14 3.5
Career— MLE — 87817992 213238825287 5951460116 14684 267327429756 163293 177 332 111 +117 -8 +35 +77 +156 38.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650592 15829221 441089 116 267328429757 162293 177 332 111 +11 -1 +3 +7 +14 3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 332 PAwOBA .419 → .382 (−37)K% 13.9% → 16.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.86%÷1.000×1.220——16.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.64%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0507.08%
HBP% /PA2.41%—×0.850—×1.0502.15%
Singles /BIP22.36%÷1.000×0.970×0.989×1.05022.52%
Doubles /BIP7.17%÷1.000×0.860×0.989×1.0506.40%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷1.000×0.950×0.989×1.0500.42%
Home runs /BIP8.02%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0506.57%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .419 → .382; ISO .269 → .233; BABIP .320 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 188 PAwOBA .388 → .349 (−39)K% 14.9% → 17.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.89%÷1.000×1.200——17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.98%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0505.78%
HBP% /PA1.06%—×0.940—×1.0501.05%
Singles /BIP27.54%÷1.000×0.930×1.002×1.05026.93%
Doubles /BIP7.97%÷1.000×0.830×1.002×1.0506.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.002×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0503.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .388 → .349; ISO .175 → .141; BABIP .360 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 392 PAwOBA .311 → .257 (−54)K% 8.9% → 12.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.93%÷0.936×1.310——12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.65%÷1.050×0.600—×1.0424.56%
HBP% /PA0.77%—×0.770—×1.0420.61%
Singles /BIP20.62%÷0.974×0.870×1.004×1.04219.28%
Doubles /BIP6.56%÷1.099×0.780×1.004×1.0424.88%
Triples /BIP0.31%÷1.011×0.850×1.004×1.0420.28%
Home runs /BIP1.88%÷1.117×0.880—×1.0421.54%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .311 → .257; ISO .115 → .091; BABIP .278 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 86 PAwOBA .358 → .307 (−51)K% 14.0% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.95%÷0.974×1.360——19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.98%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0304.90%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.780—×1.0301.87%
Singles /BIP34.85%÷1.030×0.920×1.009×1.03032.36%
Doubles /BIP6.06%÷0.963×0.830×1.009×1.0305.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×1.009×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.891×0.800—×1.0300.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .358 → .307; ISO .051 → .044; BABIP .409 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 48 PAwOBA .294 → .283 (−11)K% 12.5% → 15.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷0.978×1.220——15.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.055×0.700—×1.0500.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.962×0.970×1.046×1.05022.15%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.109×0.860×1.046×1.0504.26%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.141×0.950×1.046×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.119×0.780—×1.0503.66%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .294 → .283; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .250 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 206 PAwOBA .452 → .335 (−117)K% 17.5% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.48%÷1.026×1.440——24.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.50%÷0.968×0.620—×1.00810.65%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.720—×1.0081.41%
Singles /BIP26.92%÷0.993×0.820×0.987×1.00822.11%
Doubles /BIP12.31%÷1.061×0.720×0.987×1.0088.31%
Triples /BIP1.54%÷1.000×0.720×0.987×1.0081.10%
Home runs /BIP4.62%÷0.952×0.780—×1.0083.81%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .452 → .335; ISO .229 → .173; BABIP .421 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 166 PAwOBA .314 → .268 (−46)K% 17.5% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.47%÷0.948×1.360——25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.64%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0456.87%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.780—×1.0450.49%
Singles /BIP21.85%÷0.989×0.920×1.035×1.04522.00%
Doubles /BIP7.56%÷1.051×0.830×1.035×1.0456.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×1.035×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP2.52%÷0.933×0.800—×1.0452.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .314 → .268; ISO .122 → .100; BABIP .299 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 159 PAwOBA .394 → .269 (−125)K% 8.8% → 10.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.81%÷0.983×1.220——10.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.95%÷1.029×0.700—×1.0088.19%
HBP% /PA1.89%—×0.700—×1.0081.33%
Singles /BIP30.08%÷1.001×0.680×0.999×1.00820.56%
Doubles /BIP7.32%÷0.951×0.600×0.999×1.0084.65%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷1.136×0.600×0.999×1.0080.43%
Home runs /BIP0.81%÷0.856×0.470—×1.0080.45%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 100, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .394 → .269; ISO .102 → .063; BABIP .385 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).