Gabriel Moreno

C Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 27 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 4.355 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	MLBARI	351	.266/.356/.380	5	3	105	2.6
2025	25	MLBARI	309	.285/.355/.433	9	2	116	3.0
2026	26	MLBARI	549	.311/.395/.486	16	6	142	5.2
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	445	.293/.375/.454	12	5	131	4.2
2028PROJ	28	MLBARI	445	.291/.373/.449	12	4	129	4.0
2029PROJ	29	MLBARI	445	.288/.370/.442	11	2	126	3.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 12.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.355First FA2029

2027Arb-2$14M2028Arb-3$20M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA85

Avg EV60

Bat Spd55

Barrel%43

Speed23

Form.302/.380/.482 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .286/.366/.444

CompsJunior Spivey (age 28) · J.T. Realmuto (age 27) · Brian Anderson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 132131vR 125

AVG/OBP/SLG.293 / .375 / .454

PA445

HR12

SB5

K%16

BB%11

BABIP327

ISO159

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

800.275

POWER45

Barrel%

437.2

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2326.2

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%13%▲12% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 15%

BB%11%·10% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.180▲.217 over 92 AB (60d) · proj .158

HR/BB4.9%▲6.2% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 3.9%

BABIP.322▲.373 over 75 BIP (60d) · proj .317

SLASH.302/.380/.482▲▲proj .286/.366/.444

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 691 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

197

494

—

wRC+

114

116

—

wOBA

336

340

—

ISO

115

139

▶▶R

BABIP

322

315

—

11.7%

17.6%

◀◀L

BB%

9.1%

10.1%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.355 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$14M	+4.5	$54M	+$40M
2028	Arb-3	$20M	+4.0	$41M	+$23M
Totals		$33M		$95M	+$63M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	135	125	31	4	1	0	6	5	0	5	4	248	282	296	578	48	250	4	4	255	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	167	153	55	17	2	4	7	20	4	2	1	359	402	575	978	216	386	12	4	420	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	341	307	86	17	5	12	22	38	7	7	1	280	342	485	828	205	282	11	6	359	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	70	59	22	5	0	1	11	6	0	1	0	373	471	508	980	136	404	9	16	438	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	145	126	47	9	1	8	14	22	3	1	2	373	448	651	1.098	278	398	15	10	469	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	173	146	45	11	1	2	24	24	1	2	0	308	409	438	848	130	352	14	14	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	73	69	22	1	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	319	356	377	733	58	350	11	5	332	110	+1	+0	+4	+6	+2	1.3
2022	22	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	267	238	75	16	0	3	24	45	4	7	1	315	387	420	807	105	377	17	9	364	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	380	341	97	19	1	7	29	75	3	6	2	284	346	408	753	123	338	20	8	333	107	+3	+0	+12	+7	+8	3.1
2024	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	305	81	18	1	5	41	52	2	3	1	266	356	380	737	115	303	15	12	333	105	+2	+0	+10	+6	+8	2.6
2025	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	309	277	79	12	1	9	29	53	1	2	2	285	355	433	788	148	323	17	9	350	116	+6	-0	+11	+6	+7	3.0
2025	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	23	20	8	3	0	2	3	5	0	0	0	400	478	850	1.328	450	462	22	13	557	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	473	147	33	1	16	61	80	5	6	4	311	395	486	881	175	339	15	11	385	142	+28	-0	+2	+10	+12	5.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1662	1465	426	83	4	38	164	268	11	17	9	291	366	431	797	140	329	16	10	353	125	+50	-0	+39	+35	+36	16.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	135	127	23	3	1	0	4	6	0	5	4	181	206	220	427	39	169	4	3	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	167	156	42	12	1	3	4	28	4	2	1	269	305	417	722	147	305	17	2	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	341	314	75	14	4	9	15	54	7	7	1	239	289	395	684	156	255	16	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	145	130	45	8	1	7	10	27	3	1	2	346	406	585	990	238	386	19	7	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	73	69	22	1	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	319	356	377	733	58	350	11	5	331	110	+1	+0	+4	+6	+2	1.3
2022	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	267	245	76	15	0	2	17	53	4	7	1	310	365	396	761	86	382	20	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	380	341	95	17	1	7	29	75	3	6	2	279	340	396	736	117	338	20	8	326	107	+3	+0	+12	+7	+8	3.1
2024	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	306	79	16	1	5	40	52	2	3	1	258	348	366	714	108	303	15	11	324	105	+2	+0	+10	+6	+8	2.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	309	280	79	11	1	10	26	53	1	2	2	282	345	436	781	154	323	17	8	340	116	+6	-0	+11	+6	+7	3.0
2025	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	23	21	7	2	0	2	2	6	0	0	0	333	391	714	1.106	381	396	26	9	445	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	473	144	29	1	17	61	80	5	6	4	304	390	478	867	173	339	15	11	378	142	+28	-0	+2	+10	+12	5.2
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	135	127	23	3	1	0	4	6	0	5	4	181	206	220	427	39	184	4	3	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	135	125	31	4	1	0	6	5	0	5	4	248	282	296	578	48	250	4	4	255	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	167	156	42	12	1	3	4	28	4	2	1	269	305	417	722	147	305	17	2	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	167	153	55	17	2	4	7	20	4	2	1	359	402	575	978	216	386	12	4	420	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	341	314	75	14	4	9	15	54	7	7	1	239	289	395	684	156	258	16	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	341	307	86	17	5	12	22	38	7	7	1	280	342	485	828	205	282	11	6	359	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL MLE	Cardenales de Lara	—	70	59	22	5	0	1	11	6	0	1	0	373	471	508	980	136	404	9	16	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL RAW	Cardenales de Lara	—	70	59	22	5	0	1	11	6	0	1	0	373	471	508	980	136	404	9	16	438	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	318	287	99	18	2	15	23	59	4	3	2	345	401	578	980	233	387	19	7	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	318	272	92	20	2	10	38	46	4	3	2	338	427	537	964	199	373	14	12	420	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	314	98	16	0	3	21	61	4	7	1	312	363	392	755	80	378	18	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	340	307	97	17	0	4	28	53	4	7	1	316	381	410	791	94	371	16	8	357	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	380	341	95	17	1	7	29	75	3	6	2	279	340	396	736	117	331	20	8	326	107	+3	+0	+12	+7	+8	3.1
2023	23	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	380	341	97	19	1	7	29	75	3	6	2	284	346	408	753	123	338	20	8	333	107	+3	+0	+12	+7	+8	3.1
2024	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	306	79	16	1	5	40	52	2	3	1	258	348	366	714	108	294	15	11	324	105	+2	+0	+10	+6	+8	2.6
2024	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	305	81	18	1	5	41	52	2	3	1	266	356	380	737	115	303	15	12	333	105	+2	+0	+10	+6	+8	2.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	332	301	85	13	1	11	28	59	1	2	2	282	345	442	787	159	318	18	8	347	121	+8	-0	+11	+6	+7	3.3
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	332	297	87	15	1	11	32	58	1	2	2	293	364	461	825	168	330	17	10	365	121	+8	-0	+11	+6	+7	3.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	473	144	29	1	17	61	80	5	6	4	304	390	478	867	173	329	15	11	378	142	+28	-0	+2	+10	+12	5.2
2026	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	473	147	33	1	16	61	80	5	6	4	311	395	486	881	175	339	15	11	385	142	+28	-0	+2	+10	+12	5.2
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	135	130	23	3	1	0	4	6	0	5	4	177	206	215	421	38	169	4	3	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	167	157	42	12	1	3	4	28	4	2	1	268	305	414	719	146	305	17	2	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	341	316	75	14	4	9	15	54	7	7	1	237	289	392	681	155	255	16	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	318	288	99	18	2	15	23	59	4	3	2	344	401	576	978	233	386	19	7	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	312	98	16	0	3	21	61	4	7	1	314	363	394	757	80	375	18	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	380	345	95	17	1	7	29	75	3	6	2	275	340	391	732	116	338	20	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	306	79	16	1	5	40	52	2	3	1	258	348	366	714	108	303	15	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	332	300	85	13	1	11	28	59	1	2	2	283	345	443	789	160	328	18	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	478	144	29	1	17	61	80	5	6	4	301	390	473	862	172	339	15	11	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	351	306	79	16	1	5	40	52	2	3	1	258	348	366	714	108	303	15	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	332	300	85	13	1	11	28	59	1	2	2	283	345	443	789	160	328	18	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	549	478	144	29	1	17	61	80	5	6	4	301	390	473	862	172	339	15	11	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	469	412	117	23	1	13	50	72	4	5	2	286	369	444	814	158	317	15	11	361	131	+17	+0	+7	+8	+10	4.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	445	390	114	24	1	12	48	69	4	5	1	293	375	454	829	161	327	16	11	368	131	+16	+1	+7	+8	+10	4.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	445	391	111	22	1	12	48	70	3	4	1	284	367	439	806	155	316	16	11	359	129	+15	+0	+6	+8	+10	4.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	445	392	110	21	1	12	47	71	3	2	1	282	364	433	797	151	315	16	11	355	126	+14	+0	+5	+8	+10	3.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	434	382	107	21	1	11	46	71	3	1	1	278	360	424	784	146	313	16	11	350	123	+12	-0	+5	+8	+9	3.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	396	348	95	18	0	10	42	66	3	1	0	273	355	413	768	140	309	17	11	343	118	+9	+0	+3	+7	+9	2.8
2032	32	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	356	314	83	16	0	8	37	61	2	0	0	267	348	398	746	132	304	17	10	335	113	+5	+0	+2	+6	+8	2.2
2033	33	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	303	267	70	13	0	7	31	54	2	0	0	258	339	380	719	122	298	18	10	324	105	+2	+0	+0	+5	+7	1.5
2034	34	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	240	213	53	9	0	5	24	44	1	0	0	248	328	359	686	110	290	18	10	311	96	-1	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	445	391	113	24	1	12	48	70	3	4	1	291	373	449	822	158	326	16	11	365	129	+15	+0	+6	+8	+10	4.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	445	392	112	24	1	11	47	71	3	2	1	288	370	442	812	154	325	16	11	361	126	+14	+0	+5	+8	+10	3.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	434	382	109	23	1	11	46	71	3	1	1	285	366	433	799	149	322	16	11	356	123	+12	-0	+5	+8	+9	3.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	396	348	98	21	1	9	42	66	3	1	0	279	360	422	782	142	319	17	11	349	118	+9	+0	+3	+7	+9	2.8
2032	32	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	356	314	86	18	0	8	37	61	2	0	0	273	353	407	760	134	313	17	10	340	113	+5	+0	+2	+6	+8	2.2
2033	33	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	303	267	70	14	0	6	31	54	2	0	0	264	344	388	732	124	307	18	10	329	105	+2	+0	+0	+5	+7	1.5
2034	34	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	240	213	53	10	0	4	24	44	1	0	0	253	332	366	698	112	298	18	10	315	96	-1	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4281	3772	1067	217	8	99	439	705	28	25	12	283	362	423	785	141	322	16	10	350	115	+106	+0	+60	+82	+93	34.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	162	33	1	15	67	107	4	4	2	283	362	422	784	140	322	16	10	350	115	+16	+0	+9	+12	+14	5.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6047	5375	1503	285	16	149	559	986	51	55	22	280	353	422	775	142	315	16	9	338	115	+122	+1	+67	+90	+102	38.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	162	31	2	16	60	106	5	6	2	280	353	424	777	144	316	16	9	338	115	+17	+0	+9	+12	+14	5.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 23 PAwOBA .541 → .445 (−96)K% 21.7% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×1.033	19.32%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.069	×0.830	—	×1.033	16.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×1.033	10.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .541 → .445; ISO .450 → .359; BABIP .462 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 267 PAwOBA .356 → .335 (−21)K% 16.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.85%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.99%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.31%
HBP% /PA	1.50%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.48%
Singles /BIP	29.02%	÷0.960	×0.930	×1.031	×1.050	30.41%
Doubles /BIP	8.29%	÷0.984	×0.830	×1.031	×1.050	7.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.149	×0.970	×1.031	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.55%	÷0.951	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .356 → .335; ISO .105 → .091; BABIP .377 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 145 PAwOBA .463 → .423 (−40)K% 15.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.17%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.66%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.24%
HBP% /PA	2.07%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.85%
Singles /BIP	27.88%	÷1.022	×0.940	×1.035	×1.050	27.88%
Doubles /BIP	8.65%	÷1.039	×0.870	×1.035	×1.050	7.88%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.035	×1.050	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.973	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.47%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .463 → .423; ISO .278 → .245; BABIP .398 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALansing Lugnuts · 341 PAwOBA .353 → .296 (−58)K% 11.1% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.14%	÷0.950	×1.360	—	—	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.16%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.045	4.37%
HBP% /PA	2.05%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.67%
Singles /BIP	19.33%	÷0.972	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	18.17%
Doubles /BIP	6.32%	÷0.979	×0.830	×0.950	×1.045	5.32%
Triples /BIP	1.86%	÷1.050	×0.910	×0.950	×1.045	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷1.113	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.35%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 110, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .353 → .296; ISO .205 → .161; BABIP .282 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 167 PAwOBA .414 → .320 (−95)K% 12.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.98%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.59%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	2.35%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	1.81%
Singles /BIP	24.06%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.966	×1.022	19.96%
Doubles /BIP	12.78%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.966	×1.022	9.34%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.966	×1.022	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	3.01%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	2.46%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .414 → .320; ISO .216 → .163; BABIP .386 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 135 PAwOBA .256 → .179 (−78)K% 3.7% → 4.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	4.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.67%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.988	×1.022	14.88%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.988	×1.022	2.02%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.988	×1.022	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .256 → .179; ISO .048 → .030; BABIP .250 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	7.1	4,726	116	30	281	356	423	+84	+102	33.2	28.7
/162	664	16	4	+11.9	+14.3	4.7	pk7: 24
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#2Tom Haller'61-'72 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,519 PA	6.8	4,519	134	14	256*	344*	450*	+79	-1	30.9	27.5
/162	664	20	2	+11.6	-0.1	4.5	pk7: 24
#3Wilson Ramoslast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,786 PA	5.7	3,786	136	1	271	318	432	+68	+61	28.0	26.7
/162	664	24	0	+11.9	+10.7	4.9	pk7: 25
#4Geovany Sotolast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,801 PA	4.2	2,801	105	3	247	332	438	+50	+74	26.0	25.0
/162	664	25	1	+11.9	+17.5	6.2	pk7: 24
#5Mike Scioscia'80-'92 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,056 PA	7.6	5,056	68	29	256*	344*	384*	+90	+0	27.3	24.5
/162	664	9	4	+11.9	+0.0	3.6	pk7: 22
#6Manny Sanguillen'67-'80 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,380 PA	8.1	5,380	65	35	293*	323*	431*	+69	+4	25.3	24.3
/162	664	8	4	+8.5	+0.4	3.1	pk7: 23

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Moreno (OGILVIE)	27	60	45	50	55	284/366/440	157	317	13	5	15%	11%	131	+2.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Junior Spivey 2003 · MLB	28	57→60	50→55	50	55	282/366/450	168	324	16	11	18%	10%	132	+3.6	262/340/426	164	315	17	11	21%	9%	118	+2.6	249/328/408	159	308	17	11	23%	9%	110	+1.1
●J.T. Realmuto 2018 · MLB	27	58→64	50→60	50→55	45	288/332/451	163	330	16	10	18%	5%	120	+2.8	277/335/478	201	319	23	8	20%	7%	128	+3.3	273/336/485	212	313	25	7	21%	7%	131	+2.6
✕Brian Anderson 2020 · MLB	27	54→59	52→60	44→45	50	268/345/444	176	321	18	4	22%	8%	123	+3.0	254/333/427	173	318	20	6	25%	9%	116	+2.5	239/322/393	155	310	19	4	27%	9%	104	+0.8
●Chris Iannetta 2009 · MLB	26	51→58	54→60	47→45	57	257/362/447	190	306	20	2	22%	12%	130	+3.5	232/341/429	197	267	23	4	22%	12%	119	+2.7	217/334/404	188	244	23	4	21%	13%	112	+1.4
●Bo Bichette 2024 · MLB	26	59→62	53→60	47→55	44	296/335/472	175	344	21	10	20%	5%	126	+3.2	278/323/427	149	321	16	6	18%	6%	111	+2.1	272/322/411	139	311	14	4	17%	6%	108	+1.7
●Tyler Stephenson 2023 · MLB	26	57→58	49→55	47→30	49	279/348/427	148	347	16	4	23%	8%	120	+2.8	249/322/404	155	318	17	2	26%	9%	105	+1.7	236/319/404	169	302	20	0	27%	10%	104	+1.2
●Martín Prado 2011 · MLB	27	60→65	48→50	42→45	50	296/343/448	152	321	14	5	13%	7%	123	+3.0	278/327/413	135	295	13	7	10%	7%	109	+2.0	294/341/412	118	324	10	2	12%	6%	115	+2.4
●Kelly Johnson 2008 · MLB	26	55→58	51→55	51→50	58	270/359/448	178	315	17	10	19%	12%	128	+3.4	265/338/437	172	310	16	11	19%	10%	118	+2.7	264/337/440	177	307	17	11	19%	10%	120	+2.6
●Jorge Polanco 2020 · MLB	27	57→60	50→60	46→50	52	282/341/452	170	317	16	8	17%	8%	123	+3.0	266/329/448	182	298	21	8	18%	8%	118	+2.7	251/331/449	198	286	25	7	22%	10%	120	+2.3
✕Chris Stynes 2001 · MLB	28	61→66	50	47→45	52	305/358/465	160	329	17	8	14%	7%	132	+3.7	271/328/415	144	300	14	6	14%	7%	109	+2.0	257/322/398	141	285	13	4	14%	8%	104	+1.0
●Yunel Escobar 2010 · MLB	27	60→67	45	41→45	56	291/359/418	127	312	12	6	11%	9%	122	+3.0	268/339/370	102	292	10	6	11%	9%	103	+1.6	299/357/401	101	334	8	1	12%	7%	117	+2.2
●Michael Young 2006 · MLB	29	63→67	51→55	51→50	51	316/363/487	171	339	18	8	13%	7%	139	+4.2	307/355/445	138	345	12	8	14%	7%	126	+3.2	303/350/457	154	335	16	5	14%	7%	127	+3.6
●Austin Jackson 2014 · MLB	27	57→64	48→50	51→55	51	277/345/434	156	344	13	11	22%	9%	120	+2.8	261/316/376	115	333	8	15	22%	7%	96	+1.0	273/330/394	121	346	9	13	22%	7%	106	+1.1
●Garrett Atkins 2008 · MLB	28	59→63	54→60	46→40	57	301/369/490	189	317	22	4	13%	9%	142	+4.4	266/327/419	153	292	17	3	15%	8%	111	+2.1	255/313/390	136	282	15	0	15%	7%	100	+0.9
●Rickie Weeks Jr. 2011 · MLB	28	53→58	55	49→55	52	265/357/456	192	321	22	11	24%	10%	130	+3.5	251/339/431	180	307	20	11	24%	10%	118	+2.7	238/329/409	171	293	18	12	24%	10%	110	+1.8
●Geovany Soto 2010 · MLB	27	50→60	55→60	45→30	54	258/338/452	194	301	22	2	22%	10%	122	+3.0	239/326/423	184	282	22	2	23%	11%	112	+2.2	228/314/406	178	267	22	0	23%	10%	104	+1.1
●Mark Kotsay 2003 · MLB	27	58→63	48→50	48→50	56	288/353/442	154	311	15	13	13%	9%	125	+3.2	283/343/423	140	310	13	8	12%	8%	117	+2.6	283/339/417	134	304	12	6	11%	8%	115	+2.5
●Carlos Ruiz 2007 · MLB	28	54→63	49→50	44→45	47	267/317/421	154	294	15	6	16%	6%	107	+1.9	244/312/375	131	265	11	6	12%	8%	95	+1.0	292/364/436	144	316	13	2	11%	8%	129	+2.6
●Jason Kendall 2001 · MLB	27	62→67	47→45	50	60	304/392/454	150	331	13	18	12%	11%	142	+4.4	286/357/388	102	301	8	13	8%	8%	114	+2.4	306/380/384	78	322	4	11	6%	8%	123	+3.2
●Xander Bogaerts 2020 · MLB	27	55→65	58→65	48→55	54	283/354/496	213	311	24	7	18%	10%	139	+4.1	286/357/482	196	322	24	8	18%	9%	137	+4.0	287/359/449	162	330	18	10	18%	9%	130	+3.7

Gabriel Moreno

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps