Tyler Stephenson

C Cincinnati Reds

Age 30 R/R 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 6.326 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	MLBCIN	515	.258/.339/.444	19	1	115	3.9
2025	28	AAACIN	40	.152/.300/.364	2	0	40	—	.143/.250/.343
2025	28	MLBCIN	342	.231/.320/.421	13	0	101	1.7
2026	29	MLBCIN	468	.241/.326/.404	15	0	100	1.8
2027PROJ	30	MLBCIN	351	.241/.325/.429	14	1	108	1.4
2028PROJ	31	MLBCIN	315	.237/.320/.418	12	1	104	0.8
2029PROJ	32	MLBCIN	276	.230/.313/.402	10	1	98	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.326First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%73

Avg EV70

xwOBA62

Bat Spd48

Speed40

Form.233/.316/.401 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .238/.320/.417

CompsMichael McKenry (age 30) · Cameron Rupp (age 29) · Kelly Shoppach (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 112108vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .325 / .429

PA351

HR14

K%27

BB%10

BABIP302

ISO191

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

260.231

POWER55

Barrel%

7311.6

Avg EV

7090.5

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4027.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%·28% over 87 PA (60d) · proj 27%

BB%10%·10% over 87 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.168▼.145 over 76 AB (60d) · proj .179

HR/BB5.1%▼3.8% over 53 BBE (60d) · proj 5.8%

BABIP.299·.275 over 51 BIP (60d) · proj .300

SLASH.233/.316/.401▼proj .238/.320/.417

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 910 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

212

698

—

wRC+

123

107

◀L

wOBA

351

327

◀L

ISO

227

172

◀◀L

BABIP

258

325

▶▶R

17.9%

30.4%

◀◀L

BB%

10.9%

9.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.6	$13M	+$1M
Totals		$12M		$13M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	219	194	52	15	0	1	22	42	3	0	2	268	352	361	712	93	338	19	10	326	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	153	139	30	4	1	3	12	45	0	0	0	216	278	324	602	108	297	29	8	270	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	23	20	5	1	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	250	348	450	798	200	333	30	9	357	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	348	295	82	22	0	6	44	58	4	2	1	278	379	414	793	136	322	17	13	354	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	388	97	20	1	11	45	98	10	1	0	250	343	392	735	142	301	22	10	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	363	312	89	19	1	6	37	60	9	0	0	285	377	410	787	125	331	17	10	352	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	55	49	17	7	0	0	5	7	1	0	0	347	418	490	908	143	405	13	9	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	450	179	+2	+0	+1	+0	+0	0.4
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	350	100	21	0	10	41	75	6	0	0	286	370	431	802	146	333	19	10	356	122	+11	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.9
2022	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	166	53	9	0	6	12	47	3	1	0	319	376	482	858	163	409	26	7	377	137	+8	+0	+1	+4	+4	1.7
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	15	15	4	1	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	267	267	333	600	67	571	53	0	267	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	465	113	20	2	13	47	135	4	0	1	243	318	378	696	135	314	26	9	314	93	-4	-0	-7	+9	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	457	118	26	1	19	48	117	8	1	0	258	339	444	783	186	307	23	9	348	115	+9	+0	+9	+9	+11	3.9
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	342	299	69	18	0	13	37	116	2	0	1	231	320	421	741	191	322	34	11	327	101	+0	-0	+3	+7	+7	1.7
2025	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	40	33	5	1	0	2	6	9	1	0	0	152	300	364	664	212	136	22	15	304	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	411	99	22	0	15	49	128	3	0	1	241	326	404	730	163	308	27	10	325	100	+0	-0	-1	+8	+10	1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2447	2165	557	116	3	78	236	627	27	2	3	257	338	422	759	164	324	26	10	338	115	+43	-1	+7	+45	+53	15.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	219	202	41	11	0	1	14	60	3	0	2	203	265	272	537	69	279	27	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	153	143	24	3	1	2	8	62	0	0	0	168	212	245	457	77	268	41	5	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	23	21	4	1	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	190	261	381	642	190	259	43	4	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	348	310	74	19	0	4	29	80	4	2	1	239	312	339	651	100	295	23	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	399	81	16	1	9	34	135	10	1	0	203	282	316	598	113	268	30	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	363	322	79	15	1	5	27	76	9	0	0	245	321	345	666	99	292	21	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	432	179	+2	+0	+1	+0	+0	0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	351	99	21	0	9	40	75	6	0	0	282	365	419	784	137	333	19	10	349	122	+11	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.9
2022	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	166	53	9	0	6	12	47	3	1	0	319	376	482	858	163	409	26	7	371	137	+8	+0	+1	+4	+4	1.7
2022	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	15	15	3	1	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	200	200	267	467	67	534	67	0	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	467	112	20	2	12	45	135	4	0	1	240	312	368	680	128	314	26	9	306	93	-4	-0	-7	+9	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	459	117	26	1	18	46	117	8	1	0	255	333	434	767	179	307	23	9	338	115	+9	+0	+9	+9	+11	3.9
2025	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	342	300	68	18	0	12	36	116	2	0	1	227	314	407	720	180	322	34	11	318	101	+0	-0	+3	+7	+7	1.7
2025	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	40	35	5	1	0	2	4	11	1	0	0	143	250	343	593	200	114	28	10	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	412	98	22	0	14	48	128	3	0	1	238	322	393	715	155	308	27	10	317	100	+0	-0	-1	+8	+10	1.8
2015	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	219	202	41	11	0	1	14	60	3	0	2	203	265	272	537	69	284	27	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	219	194	52	15	0	1	22	42	3	0	2	268	352	361	712	93	338	19	10	326	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	164	28	4	1	3	9	72	1	0	0	171	218	262	481	91	281	41	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	176	159	35	5	1	4	14	52	1	0	0	220	287	340	627	119	301	30	8	281	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	348	310	74	19	0	4	29	80	4	2	1	239	312	339	651	100	303	23	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	348	295	82	22	0	6	44	58	4	2	1	278	379	414	793	136	322	17	13	354	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	399	81	16	1	9	34	135	10	1	0	203	282	316	598	113	275	30	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	388	97	20	1	11	45	98	10	1	0	250	343	392	735	142	301	22	10	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	418	372	91	17	1	6	31	87	10	0	0	245	320	344	664	99	299	21	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	418	361	106	26	1	6	42	67	10	0	0	294	383	421	804	127	341	16	10	359	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	432	179	+2	+0	+1	+0	+0	0.4
2020	23	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	450	179	+2	+0	+1	+0	+0	0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	351	99	21	0	9	40	75	6	0	0	282	365	419	784	137	331	19	10	349	122	+11	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.9
2021	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	350	100	21	0	10	41	75	6	0	0	286	370	431	802	146	333	19	10	356	122	+11	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.9
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	198	181	56	10	0	6	12	57	3	1	0	309	362	464	826	155	417	29	6	356	127	+6	+0	+1	+4	+4	1.6
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	198	181	57	10	0	6	12	55	3	1	0	315	367	470	837	155	418	28	6	369	127	+6	+0	+1	+4	+4	1.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	467	112	20	2	12	45	135	4	0	1	240	312	368	680	128	312	26	9	306	93	-4	-0	-7	+9	+11	0.9
2023	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	465	113	20	2	13	47	135	4	0	1	243	318	378	696	135	314	26	9	314	93	-4	-0	-7	+9	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	459	117	26	1	18	46	117	8	1	0	255	333	434	767	179	304	23	9	338	115	+9	+0	+9	+9	+11	3.9
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	457	118	26	1	19	48	117	8	1	0	258	339	444	783	186	307	23	9	348	115	+9	+0	+9	+9	+11	3.9
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	382	335	73	19	0	14	40	127	3	0	1	218	307	400	707	182	298	33	10	308	95	-2	-0	+3	+7	+8	1.5
2025	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	382	332	74	19	0	15	43	125	3	0	1	223	317	416	733	193	301	33	11	325	95	-2	-0	+3	+7	+8	1.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	412	98	22	0	14	48	128	3	0	1	238	322	393	715	155	305	27	10	317	100	+0	-0	-1	+8	+10	1.8
2026	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	411	99	22	0	15	49	128	3	0	1	241	326	404	730	163	308	27	10	325	100	+0	-0	-1	+8	+10	1.8
2015	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	219	200	41	11	0	1	14	60	3	0	2	205	265	275	540	70	279	27	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	164	28	4	1	3	9	72	1	0	0	171	218	262	481	91	267	41	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	348	312	74	19	0	4	29	80	4	2	1	237	312	337	648	99	295	23	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	403	81	16	1	9	34	135	10	1	0	201	282	313	595	112	268	30	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	418	374	91	17	1	6	31	87	10	0	0	243	320	342	662	99	292	21	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	432	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	353	99	21	0	9	40	75	6	0	0	280	365	416	782	136	333	19	10	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	198	181	56	10	0	6	12	57	3	1	0	309	362	464	826	155	418	29	6	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	463	112	20	2	12	45	135	4	0	1	242	312	371	684	130	314	26	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	456	117	26	1	18	46	117	8	1	0	257	333	436	770	180	307	23	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	382	336	73	19	0	14	40	127	3	0	1	217	307	399	706	182	300	33	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	414	98	22	0	14	48	128	3	0	1	237	322	391	713	155	308	27	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	456	117	26	1	18	46	117	8	1	0	257	333	436	770	180	307	23	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	382	336	73	19	0	14	40	127	3	0	1	217	307	399	706	182	300	33	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	468	414	98	22	0	14	48	128	3	0	1	237	322	391	713	155	308	27	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	443	391	93	21	1	16	45	121	4	1	0	238	323	417	740	179	300	27	10	328	108	+4	+0	-4	+8	+10	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	351	309	75	17	0	14	36	96	3	1	0	241	325	429	754	188	302	27	10	334	108	+3	+0	-3	+6	+8	1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	315	277	65	15	0	11	32	87	3	1	0	234	317	406	724	173	296	28	10	322	104	+1	+0	-6	+6	+7	0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	276	245	56	13	0	9	27	78	2	1	0	227	310	391	702	164	291	28	10	313	98	-1	+0	-6	+5	+6	0.4
2030	33	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	234	207	45	10	0	7	23	67	2	0	0	219	301	373	675	154	283	29	10	302	91	-3	+0	-6	+4	+5	0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	315	277	66	15	0	12	32	87	3	1	0	237	320	418	738	181	298	28	10	327	104	+1	+0	-6	+6	+7	0.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	276	245	56	12	0	10	27	78	2	1	0	230	313	402	715	172	292	28	10	318	98	-1	+0	-6	+5	+6	0.4
2030	33	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	234	207	46	10	0	8	23	67	2	0	0	222	304	383	687	162	284	29	10	307	91	-3	+0	-6	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3272	2894	725	153	3	108	318	859	34	4	3	251	332	417	749	167	316	26	10	333	94	+41	-0	-11	+59	+71	16.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	144	30	1	21	63	171	7	1	1	250	332	416	748	165	317	26	10	333	94	+8	-0	-2	+12	+14	3.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5289	4707	1115	240	6	138	468	1410	66	8	6	237	315	378	693	141	305	27	9	306	94	+45	-0	-14	+66	+78	17.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	137	29	1	17	58	173	8	1	1	237	315	379	694	142	305	27	9	306	94	+8	-0	-3	+12	+14	3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 40 PAwOBA .297 → .227 (−70)K% 22.5% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.50%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	27.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×0.982	10.14%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.31%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.049	×0.930	—	×0.982	7.25%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×0.982	3.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .297 → .227; ISO .212 → .163; BABIP .136 → .114. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 15 PAwOBA .259 → .171 (−88)K% 53.3% → 66.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	53.33%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	66.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.018	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	42.86%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×1.018	40.75%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×1.018	12.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .259 → .171; ISO .067 → .042; BABIP .571 → .534. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 363 PAwOBA .348 → .294 (−54)K% 16.5% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.53%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	20.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷0.949	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.50%
HBP% /PA	2.48%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	2.14%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.974	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	23.03%
Doubles /BIP	7.54%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	5.77%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .294; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .331 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Daytona Tortugas · 450 PAwOBA .324 → .267 (−58)K% 21.8% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.78%	÷1.035	×1.420	—	—	29.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.78%	÷0.994	×0.750	—	×1.012	7.46%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	2.09%
Singles /BIP	22.41%	÷1.006	×0.920	×0.981	×1.012	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.088	×0.960	×0.981	×1.012	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.047	×0.810	×0.981	×1.012	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷1.058	×0.880	—	×1.012	3.19%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .324 → .267; ISO .142 → .113; BABIP .301 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ADayton Dragons · 348 PAwOBA .350 → .288 (−62)K% 16.7% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	23.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.64%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.015	8.39%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.91%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷1.005	×0.920	×1.020	×1.015	21.59%
Doubles /BIP	9.28%	÷0.999	×0.830	×1.020	×1.015	7.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.020	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.168	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.76%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 97, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .350 → .288; ISO .136 → .106; BABIP .322 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ADayton Dragons · 153 PAwOBA .263 → .197 (−66)K% 29.4% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.986	×1.360	—	—	40.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.84%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.40%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.993	×1.030	21.57%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷0.966	×0.830	×0.993	×1.030	3.74%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.993	×1.030	0.86%
Home runs /BIP	3.19%	÷1.153	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.28%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .263 → .197; ISO .108 → .073; BABIP .297 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Reds · 23 PAwOBA .347 → .228 (−119)K% 30.4% → 43.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.43%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	43.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	5.36%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	3.11%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	18.83%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	5.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	5.97%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .347 → .228; ISO .200 → .128; BABIP .333 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKBillings Mustangs · 219 PAwOBA .318 → .233 (−85)K% 19.2% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.18%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	27.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.05%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.008	6.17%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.99%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.039	×1.008	20.32%
Doubles /BIP	9.87%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.008	7.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.008	0.50%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .318 → .233; ISO .093 → .066; BABIP .338 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Terry Kennedy'78-'91 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,421 PA	8.2	5,421	113	6	260*	313*	414*	+90	+0	24.6	22.4
/162	664	14	1	+11.1	+0.0	3.0	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.4	3,603	116	5	250	327	415	+64	+10	20.1	18.4
/162	664	21	1	+11.9	+1.8	3.7	pk7: 17
#2Mike Macfarlane'87-'99 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,043 PA	6.1	4,043	129	12	244*	313*	436*	+65	+0	19.1	17.7
/162	664	21	2	+10.6	+0.0	3.1	pk7: 16
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Omar Narváezlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,298 PA	3.5	2,298	53	0	251	334	374	+41	+15	12.6	12.9
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+4.3	3.6	pk7: 13
#6Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Stephenson (OGILVIE)	30	45	55	45	55	236/320/413	177	300	13	1	27%	10%	108	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2015 · MLB	30	50→47	52→55	41→40	50	256/324/424	168	301	20	6	22%	8%	111	+2.1	219/310/363	144	287	14	6	27%	11%	93	+0.8	178/284/300	122	248	11	3	30%	12%	68	-0.4
✕Cameron Rupp 2018 · MLB	29	45→49	54→55	47→30	44	234/296/414	180	303	21	3	30%	8%	99	+1.2	200/270/360	160	289	20	3	36%	8%	77	-0.3	162/236/306	144	234	20	0	39%	8%	50	-1.1
✕Kelly Shoppach 2010 · MLB	30	47→50	58→60	45→30	46	240/334/449	209	317	25	2	31%	9%	121	+2.9	217/309/394	177	297	22	3	33%	9%	100	+1.3	201/288/371	170	283	21	1	35%	8%	88	+0.2
✕Matthew LeCroy 2007 · MLB	31	50	53→55	46→30	52	255/335/421	166	302	22	3	23%	10%	114	+2.4	204/270/312	108	246	11	5	21%	7%	65	-1.2	157/215/221	63	193	5	0	20%	5%	24	-2.1
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	45→54	55	44→30	59	237/334/429	192	277	23	4	23%	13%	116	+2.5	219/318/400	181	299	24	5	32%	12%	104	+1.6	185/288/349	164	263	25	1	38%	12%	81	-0.0
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2015 · MLB	30	48→54	52→60	42→40	48	238/314/413	175	323	20	3	31%	10%	105	+1.7	205/291/367	162	297	20	3	35%	11%	86	+0.3	167/258/318	152	242	20	0	38%	11%	64	-0.5
●John Buck 2010 · MLB	30	45→53	53→60	39→30	47	232/299/414	182	279	20	3	25%	8%	100	+1.3	245/305/422	177	295	22	2	24%	7%	104	+1.6	236/304/405	169	281	22	0	24%	8%	101	+1.0
✕Welington Castillo 2017 · MLB	30	47→56	53→55	48→30	44	245/303/414	169	298	22	3	25%	7%	101	+1.4	250/301/422	172	311	23	3	27%	6%	103	+1.5	244/292/420	176	300	26	1	28%	6%	99	+0.6
✕Eric Haase 2023 · MLB	30	47→42	59→65	49→40	43	249/303/454	205	311	28	4	29%	7%	111	+2.1	226/279/370	144	310	19	5	32%	7%	82	+0.0	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Tom Murphy 2022 · MLB	31	44→38	55→65	47→45	51	230/315/408	179	296	24	4	30%	11%	105	+1.7	247/326/430	183	325	22	5	29%	10%	114	+2.3	287/337/536	249	358	31	0	28%	6%	143	+1.2
✕James McCann 2020 · MLB	30	51→55	50	43→45	43	253/307/407	154	321	18	4	27%	6%	101	+1.4	246/306/395	149	319	18	5	28%	7%	98	+1.2	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	238/296/424	186	300	22	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	249/299/400	151	324	19	7	28%	6%	96	+1.0	255/299/384	129	337	17	4	28%	5%	89	+0.2
✕Devin Mesoraco 2017 · MLB	29	46→50	52→60	42→40	51	235/313/401	166	271	19	6	22%	9%	102	+1.5	220/303/375	155	253	19	5	21%	9%	93	+0.8	208/295/367	159	233	21	1	21%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Josh Phegley 2017 · MLB	29	47→50	52→60	46→40	45	244/297/419	176	277	19	3	20%	6%	100	+1.3	224/282/372	148	263	15	3	21%	6%	84	+0.1	216/271/370	154	248	17	0	21%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Brad Miller 2020 · MLB	30	45→55	57→60	45→50	49	235/311/433	198	297	25	6	29%	10%	109	+2.0	234/316/433	199	295	26	7	29%	10%	111	+2.1	219/307/399	180	275	25	6	29%	11%	100	+0.6
●Chris Iannetta 2013 · MLB	30	45→55	51→60	41→45	58	231/334/391	160	274	19	6	22%	12%	108	+1.9	231/343/379	148	295	16	4	25%	14%	108	+1.9	220/340/362	142	282	15	2	25%	14%	105	+1.0
✕Omar Narváez 2021 · MLB	29	50→54	52→50	42→30	54	256/338/418	162	300	21	3	22%	10%	115	+2.4	240/317/367	127	286	13	2	20%	9%	95	+1.0	234/312/347	112	279	11	0	19%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Curt Casali 2021 · MLB	32	48	54→50	46→30	51	245/328/422	177	300	22	6	25%	10%	112	+2.2	219/313/359	140	293	16	4	28%	11%	93	+0.8	207/312/292	85	276	8	0	25%	11%	77	-0.1
✕Ramon Castro 2006 · MLB	30	44	53→55	48→40	50	228/299/405	177	272	21	5	24%	9%	98	+1.2	249/313/442	193	298	25	4	25%	8%	112	+2.2	248/307/466	218	274	32	0	23%	7%	117	+0.7
✕Aledmys Díaz 2021 · MLB	30	48→57	55	45	50	252/310/439	187	261	23	6	15%	7%	109	+2.0	242/295/392	150	274	17	3	18%	6%	93	+0.8	236/287/371	135	270	15	1	18%	5%	86	+0.2

Tyler Stephenson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps