Tyler Stephenson

Tyler StephensonC Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 R/R 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB HR +9%K -4% Svc 5.326 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.3 · 2027

wRC+†vL 11296vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .322 / .415

PA453

HR16

K%26

BB%10

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

55→55

SPD

45→45

EYE

57↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$7M	+2.2	$18M	+$11M
Totals		$7M		$18M	+$11M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	219	203	41	11	0	1	13	60	3	0	2	.202	.260	.271	.531	.069	.282	27	6	.232	36	-16	-1	+0	+4	+6	-0.7
2016	19	A	2 teams	176	164	28	4	1	3	9	68	1	0	0	.171	.218	.262	.481	.091	.269	39	5	.201	12	-17	+0	+0	+3	+5	-1.0
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	348	309	73	18	0	4	30	75	4	2	1	.236	.312	.333	.645	.097	.294	22	9	.288	79	-8	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.8
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	450	400	81	16	1	9	33	134	10	1	0	.203	.280	.315	.595	.112	.273	30	7	.263	59	-21	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.0
2019	22	AA	2 teams	418	373	89	17	1	7	30	92	10	0	0	.239	.312	.346	.658	.107	.294	22	7	.289	79	-10	+0	+0	+7	+12	1.0
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	.294	.400	.647	1.047	.353	.500	45	10	.414	175	+2	+0	+1	+0	+1	0.3
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	402	350	93	19	0	9	41	75	6	0	0	.266	.353	.397	.750	.131	.310	19	10	.328	109	+4	+0	+1	+7	+11	2.5
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	198	181	55	8	0	6	12	57	3	1	0	.304	.357	.448	.805	.144	.408	29	6	.347	124	+5	+0	+1	+4	+6	1.6
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	517	465	110	20	2	11	47	135	4	0	1	.237	.312	.359	.671	.123	.309	26	9	.296	84	-9	-0	-7	+9	+15	0.8
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	515	457	115	26	1	17	48	117	8	1	0	.252	.333	.425	.758	.173	.302	23	9	.330	111	+6	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.0
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	382	334	71	18	0	14	41	127	3	0	1	.213	.304	.392	.696	.180	.289	33	11	.301	88	-5	-0	+3	+7	+11	1.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	68	57	9	0	0	2	10	20	0	0	0	.158	.284	.263	.547	.105	.194	29	15	.254	53	-4	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	385	338	78	16	1	13	41	103	3	1	0	.231	.319	.399	.719	.169	.287	27	11	.321	104	+2	+0	+3	+7	+11	2.3
TOT	29	MLB	CIN	453	395	87	16	1	15	51	123	3	1	0	.220	.314	.380	.694	.159	.277	27	11	.311	96	-2	+0	+3	+8	+13	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	CIN	442	388	89	18	1	15	47	101	4	0	0	.229	.319	.397	.716	.168	.266	23	11	.318	101	+1	+0	+2	+8	+13	2.3
2028	31	MLB	CIN	414	364	82	16	1	14	44	96	3	0	0	.225	.314	.390	.704	.165	.264	23	11	.314	99	-1	+0	+1	+7	+12	2.0
2029	32	MLB	CIN	384	337	75	15	1	12	41	91	3	0	0	.223	.312	.380	.692	.157	.262	24	11	.309	95	-2	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.6
2030	33	MLB	CIN	344	302	66	13	1	11	36	84	3	0	0	.219	.308	.377	.685	.159	.261	24	10	.304	90	-4	+0	-1	+6	+10	1.1
2031	34	MLB	CIN	293	258	55	11	0	9	31	74	2	0	0	.213	.302	.360	.663	.147	.258	25	11	.297	85	-5	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.6
2032	35	MLB	CIN	238	209	43	8	0	7	25	62	2	0	0	.206	.297	.344	.641	.139	.256	26	11	.289	79	-6	+0	-4	+4	+7	0.2
2033	36	MLB	CIN	183	161	32	6	0	5	19	50	1	0	0	.199	.287	.329	.616	.130	.252	27	10	.279	72	-6	+0	-5	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6328	5610	1281	260	11	169	590	1610	74	6	5	.228	.310	.369	.679	.141	.287	25	9	.300	88	-89	-1	+2	+113	+179	20.8
/ 162G	—			650	576	131	27	1	17	61	165	8	1	1	.227	.311	.366	.677	.139	.286	25	9	.300	88	-9	-0	+0	+12	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	219	194	52	15	0	1	22	42	3	0	2	.268	.352	.361	.712	.093	.338	19	10	.326	108	+2	-1	—	—	+6	0.8
2016	19	A	Dayton Dragons	153	139	30	4	1	3	12	45	0	0	0	.216	.278	.324	.602	.108	.297	29	8	.270	65	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2016	19	ROK	AZL Reds	23	20	5	1	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	.250	.348	.450	.798	.200	.333	30	9	.357	131	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	348	295	82	22	0	6	44	58	4	2	1	.278	.379	.414	.793	.136	.322	17	13	.354	129	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	450	388	97	20	1	11	45	98	10	1	0	.250	.343	.392	.735	.142	.301	22	10	.328	109	+5	+0	—	—	+13	1.8
2019	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	363	312	89	19	1	6	37	60	9	0	0	.285	.377	.410	.787	.125	.331	17	10	.352	128	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2019	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	55	49	17	7	0	0	5	7	1	0	0	.347	.418	.490	.908	.143	.405	13	9	.405	168	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	.294	.400	.647	1.047	.353	.500	45	10	.450	203	+2	+0	+1	+0	+1	0.4
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	402	350	100	21	0	10	41	75	6	0	0	.286	.370	.431	.802	.146	.333	19	10	.356	131	+14	+0	+1	+7	+11	3.5
2022	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	183	166	53	9	0	6	12	47	3	1	0	.319	.376	.482	.858	.163	.409	26	7	.377	147	+10	+0	+1	+4	+5	2.0
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	15	15	4	1	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	.267	.267	.333	.600	.067	.571	53	0	.267	62	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	517	465	113	20	2	13	47	135	4	0	1	.243	.318	.378	.696	.135	.314	26	9	.314	98	-1	-0	-7	+9	+15	1.6
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	515	457	118	26	1	19	48	117	8	1	0	.258	.339	.444	.783	.186	.307	23	9	.348	124	+14	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.8
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	342	299	69	18	0	13	37	116	2	0	1	.231	.320	.421	.741	.191	.322	34	11	.327	108	+3	-0	+3	+7	+10	2.2
2025	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	40	33	5	1	0	2	6	9	1	0	0	.152	.300	.364	.664	.212	.136	22	15	.304	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1979	1754	458	94	3	63	187	499	24	2	2	.261	.340	.426	.766	.165	.328	25	9	.341	119	+42	-0	+8	+36	+56	14.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Stephenson (OGILVIE)	29	45	55	45	55	.228/.317/.397	.168	.267	16	1	22%	11%	104	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	50→55	44→40	48	.231/.299/.387	.156	.280	18	4	24%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.325/.408	.165	.299	18	6	24%	10%	109	+2.4	.231/.329/.388	.157	.295	17	5	26%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Welington Castillo 2016 · MLB	29	47→57	53→60	47→30	46	.244/.309/.417	.173	.290	22	3	24%	7%	105	+2.1	.256/.310/.429	.173	.317	23	3	26%	7%	108	+2.3	.262/.313/.422	.160	.330	21	2	27%	6%	104	+1.2
✕Devin Mesoraco 2017 · MLB	29	48→52	54→60	41→40	51	.247/.330/.431	.184	.287	22	6	22%	9%	117	+2.9	.222/.308/.376	.154	.257	18	5	21%	9%	95	+1.4	.214/.306/.378	.164	.240	21	1	21%	9%	88	+0.4
●Trevor Plouffe 2015 · MLB	29	49→51	52→60	42→45	50	.248/.313/.416	.168	.283	19	3	20%	8%	106	+2.2	.246/.308/.414	.168	.285	19	3	20%	8%	103	+1.9	.236/.298/.400	.164	.273	20	2	21%	8%	93	+0.9
✕Cameron Rupp 2018 · MLB	29	46→50	53→55	46→30	45	.235/.302/.408	.173	.304	20	3	29%	8%	99	+1.7	.203/.275/.365	.162	.293	20	3	36%	8%	78	+0.2	.167/.242/.315	.148	.243	20	0	39%	8%	48	-0.8
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	45→53	53→55	44→30	59	.231/.328/.411	.180	.270	21	4	23%	13%	111	+2.5	.220/.324/.399	.179	.301	23	5	32%	13%	107	+2.2	.189/.298/.355	.165	.275	25	1	38%	13%	79	+0.1
✕Josh Phegley 2017 · MLB	29	46→48	54→60	45→40	44	.241/.291/.424	.183	.271	21	3	20%	6%	99	+1.7	.226/.284/.372	.146	.267	15	3	21%	6%	82	+0.5	.219/.274/.368	.149	.253	16	0	21%	5%	75	+0.0
✕David Bote 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	50→55	47→45	52	.217/.306/.373	.156	.261	18	6	24%	10%	92	+1.2	.224/.293/.375	.151	.287	16	8	27%	7%	87	+0.8	.227/.294/.384	.157	.293	17	8	27%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Carson Kelly 2023 · MLB	29	45→48	50→55	48→40	53	.229/.309/.381	.152	.261	18	4	20%	9%	95	+1.4	.234/.311/.373	.139	.276	16	4	21%	9%	94	+1.3	.239/.318/.381	.142	.276	19	2	20%	9%	96	+0.7
✕Raul Casanova 2002 · MLB	29	48	54→60	44→30	52	.251/.316/.436	.185	.268	22	4	17%	8%	112	+2.6	.236/.306/.386	.150	.266	18	6	18%	8%	95	+1.4	.258/.315/.394	.135	.300	16	1	19%	7%	97	+0.7
✕A.J. Hinch 2003 · MLB	29	44	52→50	43→45	50	.230/.300/.393	.163	.247	21	9	18%	8%	95	+1.4	.234/.297/.382	.148	.266	17	7	19%	7%	91	+1.1	.243/.299/.329	.086	.293	5	0	18%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Ramon Castro 2003 · MLB	27	47	51→55	47→40	54	.242/.322/.401	.159	.282	20	6	22%	10%	106	+2.2	.238/.313/.436	.198	.273	26	6	23%	10%	111	+2.5	.251/.314/.471	.220	.277	32	0	23%	8%	117	+0.8
✕John Buck 2010 · MLB	30	45→53	53→55	39→30	48	.231/.303/.414	.182	.277	20	3	24%	8%	102	+1.8	.240/.305/.406	.166	.293	20	2	24%	8%	100	+1.7	.228/.304/.383	.155	.276	19	0	24%	9%	84	+0.5
●Keith Ginter 2004 · MLB	28	51	51→55	45	54	.254/.350/.420	.167	.296	18	4	20%	10%	123	+3.3	.241/.320/.414	.173	.279	20	7	21%	9%	109	+2.4	.225/.303/.383	.158	.258	18	5	20%	8%	91	+0.7
●Chris Iannetta 2012 · MLB	29	44→54	53→60	45	62	.229/.346/.408	.179	.263	21	6	21%	14%	118	+3.0	.236/.349/.391	.155	.294	17	5	24%	14%	115	+2.8	.236/.357/.383	.147	.304	16	2	25%	15%	112	+1.5
✕Freddy Fermin 2023 · AAA	28	44	51→55	46→40	48	.230/.294/.384	.154	.268	19	4	22%	8%	90	+1.0	.251/.305/.393	.142	.294	18	4	20%	7%	97	+1.5	.260/.310/.381	.120	.305	14	2	19%	6%	90	+0.6
✕Aledmys Díaz 2020 · MLB	29	49→58	51→55	43→45	49	.251/.305/.412	.161	.265	19	7	14%	6%	102	+1.8	.250/.308/.415	.165	.275	19	4	17%	6%	104	+2.0	.236/.290/.365	.129	.271	14	1	18%	5%	79	+0.2
●Andy Ibáñez 2022 · MLB	29	50→55	51→50	44→45	48	.255/.308/.419	.164	.285	18	6	18%	6%	105	+2.1	.245/.299/.388	.143	.283	15	7	19%	7%	92	+1.2	.247/.306/.390	.143	.289	15	7	20%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Brad Miller 2019 · MLB	29	46→56	52→60	46→50	51	.232/.313/.407	.174	.297	19	6	28%	10%	104	+2.0	.237/.321/.440	.203	.301	26	6	29%	11%	116	+2.8	.231/.323/.461	.230	.278	31	5	28%	11%	117	+1.4
✕Chris Widger 2002 · MLB	31	46	55→60	44→40	52	.242/.312/.434	.192	.268	23	6	20%	9%	110	+2.4	.243/.302/.372	.129	.284	11	6	18%	7%	89	+1.0	.215/.276/.317	.102	.253	8	0	18%	7%	61	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)