Tyler Stephenson

Tyler StephensonC Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 R/R 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 5.326 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION257 act + 187 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 135130vR 118

AVG/OBP/SLG.262 / .346 / .427

PA187

HR6

K%26

BB%11

BABIP333

ISO165

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

807.8%

xwOBA

620.323

POWER55

Barrel%

6810.9

Avg EV

6890.4

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE55

Chase%

9021.6%

SPEED45

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 910 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

212

698

—

wRC+

127

108

◀L

wOBA

351

327

◀L

ISO

227

172

◀◀L

BABIP

258

325

▶▶R

17.9%

30.4%

◀◀L

BB%

10.9%

9.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	219	203	41	11	0	1	13	60	3	0	2	202	260	271	531	69	282	27	6	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	219	194	52	15	0	1	22	42	3	0	2	268	352	361	712	93	338	19	10	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	176	164	26	4	1	2	9	73	1	0	0	159	207	232	439	73	270	41	5	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	176	159	35	5	1	4	14	52	1	0	0	220	287	340	627	119	301	30	8	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	348	312	73	19	0	4	27	81	4	2	1	234	303	333	637	99	297	23	8	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	348	295	82	22	0	6	44	58	4	2	1	278	379	414	793	136	322	17	13	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	400	79	15	1	8	33	130	10	1	0	198	275	300	575	102	264	29	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	388	97	20	1	11	45	98	10	1	0	250	343	392	735	142	301	22	10	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	2 teams	—	418	370	86	13	1	6	33	95	10	0	0	232	312	322	634	89	292	23	8	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	2 teams	—	418	361	106	26	1	6	42	67	10	0	0	294	383	421	804	127	341	16	10	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	433	190	+2	+0	+1	+0	+1	0.4
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	450	203	+2	+0	+1	+0	+1	0.4
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	350	97	20	0	9	41	75	6	0	0	277	363	411	774	134	325	19	10	344	121	+10	+0	+1	+7	+11	3.0
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	350	100	21	0	10	41	75	6	0	0	286	370	431	802	146	333	19	10	356	131	+14	+0	+1	+7	+11	3.5
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	198	181	54	9	0	6	12	57	3	1	0	298	352	448	800	149	400	29	6	349	125	+6	+0	+1	+4	+6	1.6
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	198	181	57	10	0	6	12	55	3	1	0	315	367	470	837	155	418	28	6	369	140	+9	+0	+1	+4	+6	2.0
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	465	110	19	2	12	47	135	4	0	1	237	312	363	675	127	307	26	9	302	89	-6	-0	-7	+9	+15	1.1
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	465	113	20	2	13	47	135	4	0	1	243	318	378	696	135	314	26	9	314	98	-1	-0	-7	+9	+15	1.6
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	457	115	25	1	18	48	117	8	1	0	252	333	429	762	177	299	23	9	333	113	+8	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.1
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	457	118	26	1	19	48	117	8	1	0	258	339	444	783	186	307	23	9	348	124	+14	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.8
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	382	334	71	18	0	14	41	127	3	0	1	213	304	392	696	180	289	33	11	307	93	-3	-0	+3	+7	+11	1.7
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	382	332	74	19	0	15	43	125	3	0	1	223	317	416	733	193	301	33	11	325	107	+3	-0	+3	+7	+11	2.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	CIN	—	257	227	54	10	0	6	28	63	0	0	1	238	322	361	683	123	300	25	11	305	92	-2	-0	-1	+5	+7	0.8
YTD	29	MLB	CIN	—	257	227	54	10	0	6	28	63	0	0	1	238	322	361	683	123	300	25	11	308	94	-2	-0	-1	+5	+7	0.9
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	100%	187	164	43	9	0	6	20	48	1	0	0	262	346	427	773	165	325	26	11	339	118	+4	+0	-1	+3	+5	1.1
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	100%	187	164	43	9	0	6	20	48	1	0	0	262	346	427	773	165	328	26	11	339	117	+4	+0	-1	+3	+5	1.1
FULL	29	MLB	CIN	—	444	391	97	19	0	12	48	111	1	0	1	248	332	389	721	141	314	25	11	319	102	+1	-0	-2	+8	+13	2.0
TOT	29	MLB	CIN	—	444	391	97	19	0	12	48	111	1	0	1	248	332	389	721	141	314	25	11	319	103	+1	-0	-2	+8	+13	2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	CIN	100%	434	384	99	20	0	14	45	112	2	1	1	258	339	419	758	161	326	26	10	338	117	+8	-0	-5	+8	+12	2.3
2028	31	MLB	CIN	100%	406	359	90	18	0	12	42	106	2	1	1	251	333	401	734	150	323	26	10	333	113	+6	-0	-6	+7	+12	1.9
2029	32	MLB	CIN	100%	376	332	82	16	0	11	39	100	2	0	1	247	330	395	724	148	319	27	10	327	108	+4	-0	-6	+7	+11	1.5
2030	33	MLB	CIN	100%	337	297	73	14	0	10	35	91	2	0	0	246	329	394	723	148	313	27	10	319	102	+1	+0	-7	+6	+10	1.0
2031	34	MLB	CIN	100%	286	254	59	11	0	8	29	79	1	0	0	232	313	370	683	138	305	28	10	309	95	-2	+0	-7	+5	+8	0.5
2032	35	MLB	CIN	100%	232	205	46	8	0	6	24	66	1	0	0	224	309	351	660	127	296	28	10	297	86	-4	+0	-7	+4	+7	-0.0
2033	36	MLB	CIN	100%	176	155	34	6	0	4	18	51	1	0	0	219	305	335	640	116	288	29	10	285	77	-5	+0	-8	+3	+5	-0.4
2034	37	MLB	CIN	100%	122	109	23	4	0	3	12	36	0	0	0	211	289	330	620	119	279	30	10	273	67	-5	+0	-8	+2	+3	-0.7
2027	30	MLB	CIN	100%	434	384	99	20	0	14	45	112	2	1	1	258	339	419	758	161	329	26	10	338	117	+8	-0	-5	+8	+12	2.3
2028	31	MLB	CIN	100%	406	359	92	19	0	13	42	106	2	1	1	256	337	418	755	162	327	26	10	333	113	+6	-0	-6	+7	+12	1.9
2029	32	MLB	CIN	100%	376	332	83	17	0	11	39	100	2	0	1	250	332	401	733	151	322	27	10	327	108	+4	-0	-6	+7	+11	1.5
2030	33	MLB	CIN	100%	337	297	73	14	0	10	35	91	2	0	0	246	329	394	723	148	316	27	10	319	102	+1	+0	-7	+6	+10	1.0
2031	34	MLB	CIN	100%	286	254	60	11	0	8	29	79	1	0	0	236	317	374	691	138	308	28	10	309	94	-2	+0	-7	+5	+8	0.5
2032	35	MLB	CIN	100%	232	205	46	8	0	6	24	66	1	0	0	224	309	351	660	127	299	28	10	297	86	-4	+0	-7	+4	+7	-0.0
2033	36	MLB	CIN	100%	176	155	34	6	0	4	18	51	1	0	0	219	305	335	640	116	291	29	10	285	76	-5	+0	-8	+3	+5	-0.4
2034	37	MLB	CIN	100%	122	109	23	4	0	3	12	36	0	0	0	211	289	330	620	119	281	30	10	272	67	-5	+0	-8	+2	+3	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4535	4013	1011	202	3	138	451	1188	36	4	5	252	333	407	740	155	322	26	10	329	110	+50	-1	-46	+82	+128	21.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	145	29	0	20	65	170	5	1	1	252	333	407	740	155	321	26	10	329	110	+7	-0	-7	+12	+18	3.1
Career	—			—	6201	5512	1306	259	6	156	570	1648	65	7	8	237	316	371	687	134	307	27	9	306	92	-55	-2	-46	+111	+176	18.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	137	27	1	16	60	173	7	1	1	237	317	370	687	133	307	27	9	306	92	-6	-0	-5	+12	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	219	194	52	15	0	1	22	42	3	0	2	268	352	361	712	93	338	19	10	326	108	+2	-1	—	—	+6	0.8
2016	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	153	139	30	4	1	3	12	45	0	0	0	216	278	324	602	108	297	29	8	270	65	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2016	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	23	20	5	1	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	250	348	450	798	200	333	30	9	357	131	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	348	295	82	22	0	6	44	58	4	2	1	278	379	414	793	136	322	17	13	354	129	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2018	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	450	388	97	20	1	11	45	98	10	1	0	250	343	392	735	142	301	22	10	328	109	+5	+0	—	—	+13	1.8
2019	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	363	312	89	19	1	6	37	60	9	0	0	285	377	410	787	125	331	17	10	352	128	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2019	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	55	49	17	7	0	0	5	7	1	0	0	347	418	490	908	143	405	13	9	405	168	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2020	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	17	5	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	0	294	400	647	1.047	353	500	45	10	450	203	+2	+0	+1	+0	+1	0.4
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	402	350	100	21	0	10	41	75	6	0	0	286	370	431	802	146	333	19	10	356	131	+14	+0	+1	+7	+11	3.5
2022	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	166	53	9	0	6	12	47	3	1	0	319	376	482	858	163	409	26	7	377	147	+10	+0	+1	+4	+5	2.0
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	15	15	4	1	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	267	267	333	600	67	571	53	0	267	62	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	517	465	113	20	2	13	47	135	4	0	1	243	318	378	696	135	314	26	9	314	98	-1	-0	-7	+9	+15	1.6
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	515	457	118	26	1	19	48	117	8	1	0	258	339	444	783	186	307	23	9	348	124	+14	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.8
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	342	299	69	18	0	13	37	116	2	0	1	231	320	421	741	191	322	34	11	327	108	+3	-0	+3	+7	+10	2.3
2025	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	40	33	5	1	0	2	6	9	1	0	0	152	300	364	664	212	136	22	15	304	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1979	1754	458	94	3	63	187	499	24	2	2	261	340	426	766	165	328	25	9	341	119	+42	-0	+8	+36	+56	14.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ramon Hernandezlast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 5,543 PA	14	5,543	166	8	263	326	418	+65	+57	33.7	30.7
	/162	664	20	1	263	326	418	+7.7	+6.9	4.0	pk7: 28
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Alex Avilalast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 3,638 PA	13	3,638	105	8	233	348	393	+65	+46	26.7	24.5
	/162	664	19	1	233	348	393	+11.9	+8.5	4.9	pk7: 22
#4Jed Lowrielast yr '22 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,188 PA	13	5,188	121	8	257	330	407	+31	+28	25.3	24.5
	/162	664	15	1	257	330	407	+4.0	+3.5	3.2	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	5,029	150	6	250	328	404	+71	+14	26.1	22.3
	/162	664	20	1	250	328	404	+9.4	+1.9	3.4	pk7: 18
#5Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
#6Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	16	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
	/162	664	15	2	255	314	388	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Stephenson (OGILVIE)	29	45	55	45	55	248/332/389	141	314	12	0	25%	11%	103	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Devin Mesoraco 2017 · MLB	29	45→49	52→60	42→40	52	234/316/402	168	271	20	6	22%	9%	104	+2.0	219/305/374	155	253	19	5	21%	9%	92	+1.2	206/298/365	159	231	21	1	21%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Nick Hundley 2012 · MLB	28	53→46	51→55	42→40	48	261/325/435	174	326	17	4	25%	8%	115	+2.8	227/284/368	141	284	15	3	25%	7%	81	+0.4	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕George Kottaras 2012 · MLB	29	48→53	52→55	43→30	54	244/322/422	178	289	19	4	22%	10%	111	+2.5	228/334/418	190	293	24	5	28%	13%	115	+2.8	192/322/383	191	246	27	1	32%	16%	97	+0.4
✕Carson Kelly 2023 · MLB	29	44→47	49→55	48→40	53	225/306/373	148	257	17	4	20%	10%	92	+1.2	233/309/371	138	275	16	4	21%	9%	92	+1.2	248/332/397	148	279	19	1	18%	10%	107	+1.2
✕Cameron Rupp 2018 · MLB	29	45→48	54→60	47→30	45	233/300/416	183	301	22	3	30%	8%	101	+1.8	206/276/375	169	295	21	3	36%	8%	80	+0.4	174/245/332	158	248	21	0	38%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Chris Snyder 2010 · MLB	29	45→44	54→55	44→30	60	231/339/412	182	271	21	2	23%	13%	116	+2.8	223/330/383	160	272	20	3	24%	13%	105	+2.1	206/321/354	147	251	20	0	25%	14%	84	+0.3
✕Omar Narváez 2021 · MLB	29	51→55	53→50	42→30	54	258/341/423	165	302	22	3	22%	10%	120	+3.1	242/322/373	131	288	14	2	20%	10%	98	+1.6	236/317/352	116	280	12	0	19%	10%	87	+0.4
✕Welington Castillo 2016 · MLB	29	46→56	53→55	47→30	45	240/304/411	171	285	22	2	24%	7%	102	+1.8	254/308/423	169	316	22	3	26%	7%	105	+2.1	257/308/416	159	323	22	2	27%	6%	101	+1.0
✕Josh Phegley 2017 · MLB	29	48→47	51→60	46→40	45	244/296/415	171	280	18	3	20%	6%	98	+1.6	228/286/377	149	268	15	3	21%	6%	85	+0.7	221/276/376	155	255	16	0	20%	5%	80	+0.1
✕Brad Miller 2019 · MLB	29	45→55	52→60	46→50	51	229/312/404	175	297	20	6	29%	11%	102	+1.9	239/323/451	212	301	27	6	29%	11%	119	+3.1	231/323/465	234	278	32	5	28%	11%	120	+1.5
●Keith Ginter 2004 · MLB	28	51	51→55	45	54	254/350/421	167	296	18	4	20%	10%	124	+3.4	239/317/410	171	277	20	6	21%	8%	106	+2.2	225/303/383	158	258	18	5	20%	8%	91	+0.7
✕Michael McKenry 2015 · MLB	30	49→47	51→55	41→40	50	248/317/406	158	293	19	6	22%	8%	105	+2.1	212/305/350	138	280	14	6	27%	11%	86	+0.8	174/283/294	120	243	11	3	30%	12%	61	-0.4
✕Colin Moran 2022 · MLB	29	51→57	51→55	45→30	49	257/324/418	161	315	20	3	25%	9%	111	+2.5	225/295/356	131	292	16	4	27%	9%	83	+0.6	203/273/312	109	269	13	0	28%	8%	59	-0.5
●Robinson Chirinos 2013 · MLB	29	49→46	47→60	41→50	47	245/310/383	137	291	15	5	21%	7%	96	+1.5	222/290/368	146	266	17	4	23%	7%	84	+0.6	230/343/435	205	296	26	2	29%	11%	122	+2.1
✕Max Ramirez 2013 · MLB	28	48→52	48→55	45→40	45	242/299/376	133	296	16	2	24%	7%	89	+1.0	226/286/340	114	297	12	3	27%	7%	75	-0.0	247/320/393	145	287	16	2	19%	9%	101	+1.0
●Trevor Plouffe 2015 · MLB	29	50→52	50→60	43→45	50	252/317/415	163	291	17	3	20%	8%	108	+2.3	244/305/410	166	283	19	3	20%	8%	101	+1.8	234/296/396	162	270	20	2	21%	8%	91	+0.8
●Jason LaRue 2003 · MLB	29	49→52	51→55	40	44	244/315/406	162	314	19	4	27%	7%	105	+2.1	244/328/423	179	303	20	3	25%	7%	115	+2.8	243/334/428	185	300	20	1	25%	8%	111	+1.8
✕Matthew LeCroy 2007 · MLB	31	50	53→55	46→30	53	256/337/422	167	304	22	3	23%	10%	118	+3.0	208/275/317	109	252	11	5	21%	7%	65	-0.7	165/226/231	67	202	5	0	20%	6%	20	-1.9
●John Buck 2010 · MLB	30	45→53	53→60	39→30	47	233/301/415	182	280	20	3	25%	8%	101	+1.8	247/312/425	178	299	22	2	24%	8%	108	+2.3	238/313/408	170	286	22	0	24%	9%	98	+1.2
✕Anthony Recker 2013 · MLB	29	43→48	51→55	44→45	47	223/298/385	162	285	20	7	28%	9%	92	+1.2	210/278/372	162	283	21	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2