Xander Bogaerts — OGILVIE

Xander BogaertsSS San Diego Padres

Age 33 R/R 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 12.244 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.5 · 2026

wRC+†vL 107119vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .331 / .401

PA474

HR11

SB13

K%17

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

58→58

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

FLD

55→55

EYE

49↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.244 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+3.5	$28M	+$3M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+2.3	$19M	-$6M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.6	$14M	-$12M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.9	$4M	-$22M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.3	$1M	-$24M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$153M		$65M	-$88M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$88M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	280	251	63	5	4	2	18	53	6	4	5	.251	.316	.327	.643	.076	.303	19	6	.287	78	-7	-1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2011	18	A	Greenville Drive	296	275	55	10	2	14	15	99	2	1	3	.200	.247	.404	.650	.204	.247	33	5	.273	67	-11	-1	+0	+3	+8	-0.0
2012	19	A+	2 teams	532	494	123	27	2	18	26	147	8	5	5	.249	.297	.421	.718	.172	.316	28	5	.307	93	-4	-1	+0	+6	+15	1.6
2013	20	AA	3 teams	565	508	140	22	7	13	48	131	4	8	3	.276	.343	.423	.766	.148	.346	23	8	.333	113	+8	+0	+0	+2	+16	2.7
2014	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	594	538	127	25	1	13	39	138	8	2	3	.236	.297	.359	.656	.123	.289	23	7	.286	77	-16	-1	-6	+6	+17	0.1
2015	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	654	613	185	30	3	7	32	101	3	10	2	.302	.340	.395	.734	.093	.350	15	5	.321	104	+3	+1	+10	+7	+19	4.0
2016	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	719	652	186	27	1	21	58	123	6	13	4	.285	.349	.426	.776	.141	.323	17	8	.342	120	+16	+1	-7	+8	+20	3.9
2017	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	635	571	153	31	7	11	56	116	6	15	1	.268	.340	.405	.744	.137	.318	18	9	.324	106	+5	+3	+5	+7	+18	3.8
2018	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	580	513	141	40	3	23	55	102	6	8	2	.275	.352	.499	.851	.224	.299	18	9	.361	134	+22	+1	-0	+6	+16	4.6
2019	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	698	614	184	43	0	33	76	122	2	4	2	.300	.379	.531	.910	.231	.325	17	11	.389	156	+44	+0	-3	+7	+20	7.0
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	225	203	61	7	0	12	21	41	0	8	0	.300	.366	.512	.878	.212	.325	18	9	.375	145	+11	+2	-1	+2	+6	2.1
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	603	529	153	32	1	23	62	113	5	5	1	.289	.369	.484	.853	.195	.325	19	10	.368	140	+27	+1	-3	+6	+17	4.9
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	631	557	169	38	0	15	57	118	10	8	2	.303	.378	.452	.831	.149	.357	19	9	.361	134	+24	+1	+8	+7	+18	5.9
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	665	596	165	30	2	20	56	110	7	19	2	.277	.346	.435	.781	.158	.307	17	8	.342	120	+15	+3	+6	+7	+19	5.1
2024	31	MLB	2 teams	478	440	118	16	1	10	31	84	1	13	3	.268	.318	.377	.695	.109	.307	18	6	.303	90	-5	+1	+5	+2	+14	1.6
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	552	491	130	33	0	10	48	94	4	20	2	.265	.335	.393	.728	.128	.304	17	9	.312	97	-2	+3	+8	+6	+16	3.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	101	90	26	2	0	4	11	10	0	2	0	.289	.366	.444	.811	.156	.289	10	11	.359	133	+4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.8
ROS	33	MLB	SD	373	336	92	15	1	10	32	57	2	11	2	.274	.341	.414	.754	.140	.302	15	9	.336	115	+6	+1	+3	+4	+11	2.6
TOT	33	MLB	SD	474	426	118	17	1	14	43	67	2	13	2	.277	.346	.420	.766	.143	.300	14	9	.341	119	+10	+2	+4	+5	+13	3.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	34	MLB	SD	427	386	104	17	1	11	36	61	2	11	2	.269	.335	.404	.739	.135	.293	14	8	.329	110	+5	+1	-1	+5	+12	2.3
2028	35	MLB	SD	372	336	89	14	1	9	31	56	2	9	2	.265	.331	.393	.723	.128	.291	15	8	.321	104	+2	+1	-2	+4	+11	1.5
2029	36	MLB	SD	313	283	74	12	1	7	26	51	1	7	1	.261	.326	.385	.711	.124	.288	16	8	.312	97	-1	+1	-3	+3	+9	0.9
2030	37	MLB	SD	249	226	56	9	0	5	20	43	1	5	1	.248	.312	.354	.666	.106	.285	17	8	.302	89	-3	+1	-5	+3	+7	0.3
2031	38	MLB	SD	181	164	39	6	0	3	14	33	1	3	0	.238	.302	.329	.631	.091	.281	18	8	.291	81	-4	+1	-6	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10622	9576	2607	489	38	290	857	1993	87	189	48	.272	.338	.422	.760	.150	.314	19	8	.331	111	+136	+19	+8	+106	+301	58.1
/ 162G	—			650	586	160	30	2	18	52	122	5	12	3	.273	.337	.423	.760	.150	.315	19	8	.331	111	+8	+1	+0	+7	+18	3.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2010	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	280	239	75	7	5	3	30	37	6	4	5	.314	.404	.423	.826	.109	.353	13	11	.368	140	+13	-1	—	—	+8	2.0
2011	18	A	Greenville Drive	296	265	69	14	2	16	25	71	2	1	3	.260	.329	.509	.838	.249	.291	24	8	.361	135	+12	-1	—	—	+8	1.9
2012	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	97	92	30	10	0	5	1	21	3	1	1	.326	.354	.598	.952	.272	.373	22	1	.410	172	+8	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2012	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	435	384	116	27	3	15	43	85	5	4	4	.302	.380	.505	.885	.203	.353	20	10	.388	155	+27	-1	—	—	+12	3.9
2013	20	MLB	Boston Red Sox	50	44	11	2	0	1	5	13	0	1	0	.250	.327	.364	.690	.114	.323	26	10	.308	94	-0	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.3
2013	20	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	256	225	64	11	0	9	28	44	2	2	2	.284	.369	.453	.822	.169	.320	17	11	.366	138	+11	-0	—	—	+7	1.8
2013	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	259	219	68	12	6	6	35	51	2	5	1	.311	.410	.502	.912	.192	.378	20	14	.399	163	+19	+1	—	—	+7	2.7
2014	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	594	538	129	28	1	12	39	138	8	2	3	.240	.301	.362	.663	.123	.296	23	7	.295	84	-11	-1	-6	+6	+17	0.6
2015	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	654	613	196	35	3	7	32	101	3	10	2	.320	.356	.421	.777	.101	.372	15	5	.345	122	+16	+1	+10	+7	+19	5.4
2016	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	719	652	192	34	1	21	58	123	6	13	4	.294	.358	.446	.804	.152	.335	17	8	.357	132	+26	+1	-7	+8	+20	4.9
2017	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	635	571	156	32	6	10	56	116	6	15	1	.273	.344	.403	.747	.130	.327	18	9	.335	115	+10	+3	+5	+7	+18	4.4
2018	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	580	513	148	45	3	23	55	102	6	8	2	.288	.364	.522	.887	.234	.317	18	9	.384	152	+34	+1	-0	+6	+16	5.9
2019	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	698	614	190	52	0	33	76	122	2	4	2	.309	.387	.555	.943	.246	.338	17	11	.408	171	+56	+0	-3	+7	+20	8.2
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	225	203	61	8	0	11	21	41	0	8	0	.300	.366	.502	.869	.202	.329	18	9	.381	150	+13	+2	-1	+2	+6	2.2
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	603	529	156	34	1	23	62	113	5	5	1	.295	.374	.493	.868	.198	.333	19	10	.379	148	+33	+1	-3	+6	+17	5.5
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	631	557	171	38	0	15	57	118	10	8	2	.307	.381	.456	.837	.149	.362	19	9	.371	142	+30	+1	+8	+7	+18	6.4
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	665	596	170	31	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	.285	.354	.440	.793	.154	.319	17	8	.351	127	+20	+3	+6	+7	+19	5.6
2024	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	463	428	113	15	1	11	28	79	1	13	3	.264	.311	.381	.692	.117	.297	17	6	.306	93	-4	+1	+5	+2	+13	1.7
2024	31	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	15	11	2	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	.182	.400	.273	.673	.091	.286	27	27	.332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	552	491	129	30	0	11	48	94	4	20	2	.263	.333	.391	.724	.128	.299	17	9	.322	104	+3	+3	+8	+6	+16	3.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			7069	6349	1822	384	18	197	593	1270	58	126	24	.287	.353	.446	.799	.159	.329	18	8	.353	128	+226	+16	+21	+74	+200	54.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Xander Bogaerts (OGILVIE)	33	58	55	50	55	.272/.338/.410	.138	.294	13	14	13%	9%	115	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Denard Span 2018 · MLB	34	54→64	47→50	49→55	54	.267/.328/.406	.140	.284	14	14	12%	8%	108	+2.3	.260/.333/.412	.152	.291	14	12	15%	9%	112	+2.6	.261/.346/.415	.154	.299	12	11	16%	10%	115	+2.3
✕Chris Denorfia 2013 · MLB	33	56→65	47→50	52→55	52	.273/.331/.417	.144	.304	13	18	15%	8%	112	+2.6	.262/.318/.377	.115	.308	10	13	17%	8%	97	+1.5	.257/.313/.357	.100	.311	8	11	19%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Tadahito Iguchi 2008 · MLB	33	55→56	47→50	51→50	54	.269/.341/.412	.142	.310	14	13	18%	10%	116	+2.8	.246/.314/.359	.113	.301	9	13	20%	9%	91	+1.1	.231/.291/.305	.074	.299	4	14	22%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Gabe Kapler 2008 · MLB	33	52→60	45→55	47→55	51	.252/.316/.384	.131	.279	12	8	15%	7%	98	+1.6	.259/.322/.429	.170	.289	18	9	16%	8%	113	+2.6	.254/.322/.423	.170	.282	17	9	16%	9%	108	+0.8
●Johnny Damon 2007 · MLB	33	60→65	50→55	53→55	57	.296/.363/.461	.165	.312	16	18	11%	9%	137	+4.3	.284/.358/.444	.160	.309	16	22	13%	10%	131	+3.9	.283/.363/.446	.163	.310	17	22	14%	11%	131	+4.0
✕Jean Segura 2023 · MLB	33	55→64	46→50	48→60	51	.270/.333/.398	.127	.301	15	13	16%	7%	109	+2.4	.230/.292/.324	.094	.263	10	13	16%	7%	72	-0.2	.205/.263/.258	.054	.233	6	11	14%	7%	41	-1.3
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	46→50	49→40	49	.254/.319/.385	.131	.287	14	6	17%	7%	100	+1.7	.223/.296/.338	.115	.295	11	8	26%	9%	79	+0.3	.163/.242/.193	.030	.240	0	0	29%	9%	2	-0.9
✕Kolten Wong 2023 · MLB	32	52→60	49→50	51→55	52	.260/.337/.419	.159	.294	15	16	17%	8%	117	+2.9	.224/.298/.352	.128	.266	13	12	20%	8%	83	+0.6	.183/.254/.261	.078	.227	8	8	22%	7%	41	-0.7
✕Eduardo Núñez 2019 · MLB	32	55→62	48→50	53→60	45	.274/.306/.413	.139	.294	15	22	14%	4%	102	+1.8	.242/.275/.362	.120	.268	13	13	15%	4%	75	-0.0	.212/.229/.289	.077	.237	9	16	15%	2%	33	-0.9
✕Aaron Boone 2006 · MLB	33	49→57	51→60	51→55	49	.250/.309/.405	.156	.270	19	14	16%	7%	102	+1.8	.250/.318/.383	.133	.285	14	8	17%	7%	99	+1.7	.253/.327/.381	.128	.294	12	5	18%	8%	97	+0.7
✕Jerry Hairston Jr. 2010 · MLB	34	52→55	48→50	50→55	52	.257/.317/.406	.149	.275	14	15	13%	7%	105	+2.1	.252/.316/.377	.125	.272	12	10	12%	8%	96	+1.5	.250/.317/.357	.108	.270	10	7	11%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Jose Castillo 2014 · AAA	33	56→59	51→50	50	44	.285/.312/.441	.157	.295	20	12	12%	4%	112	+2.6	.262/.286/.378	.116	.289	13	9	14%	3%	84	+0.6	.259/.281/.341	.082	.291	8	7	14%	3%	70	-0.2
✕Danny Bautista 2004 · MLB	32	57→59	46→50	48→45	50	.279/.331/.417	.138	.310	13	9	15%	7%	113	+2.6	.274/.325/.399	.125	.301	12	8	13%	7%	105	+2.1	.284/.332/.398	.114	.307	11	6	11%	6%	105	+2.0
✕Cameron Maybin 2020 · MLB	33	52→59	47→50	50→55	54	.254/.335/.396	.142	.317	14	22	23%	11%	109	+2.4	.228/.302/.359	.131	.310	12	14	28%	9%	86	+0.8	.166/.237/.251	.086	.244	5	13	32%	7%	29	-0.6
✕Aaron Hill 2014 · MLB	32	55→61	50→55	47→50	52	.276/.335/.438	.161	.295	16	12	13%	7%	120	+3.1	.249/.308/.384	.135	.278	14	7	15%	7%	95	+1.4	.235/.298/.348	.113	.263	12	7	15%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Miguel Rojas 2022 · MLB	33	55→60	45	50	52	.269/.328/.400	.131	.296	11	13	13%	7%	107	+2.2	.249/.303/.361	.112	.274	9	12	12%	6%	87	+0.8	.255/.311/.363	.108	.279	9	12	12%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Brady Clark 2006 · MLB	33	59→62	44→45	44→50	56	.285/.360/.409	.123	.302	11	14	10%	8%	123	+3.3	.268/.347/.367	.099	.298	8	8	12%	9%	108	+2.3	.256/.343/.333	.077	.295	4	4	13%	9%	90	+0.6
●Michael Cuddyer 2012 · MLB	33	54→64	53→60	51→50	53	.274/.338/.456	.183	.298	20	8	16%	8%	126	+3.5	.283/.342/.471	.188	.320	20	11	18%	8%	132	+4.0	.297/.355/.500	.203	.336	22	11	18%	8%	139	+2.8
✕Damion Easley 2003 · MLB	33	50→52	46→55	46→50	54	.244/.323/.381	.138	.265	13	9	14%	8%	102	+1.8	.232/.305/.385	.153	.252	15	7	15%	8%	95	+1.4	.258/.330/.403	.145	.272	19	1	13%	8%	107	+1.0
●Matt Lawton III 2005 · MLB	33	52→62	51→50	47→55	61	.261/.352/.418	.157	.266	19	16	11%	11%	123	+3.3	.259/.351/.403	.144	.280	15	17	13%	11%	118	+3.0	.252/.355/.393	.141	.275	13	18	13%	12%	116	+2.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)