Xander BogaertsSS San Diego Padres
Age 33 R/R 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB HR -7% Svc 12.244 · Ctrl thru 2033
2026 ROS PROJECTION363 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†vL 114113vR 110
AVG/OBP/SLG.280 / .358 / .430
PA242
HR6
SB8
K%18
BB%10
BABIP327
ISO150
MLB%100%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +4.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+4RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +6.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+6POSREP: +17.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+17REPTotal WAR: +2.60+2.6WAR
0.02.04.01.02.51.60.80.1-$64M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 58 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT58
Whiff%
905.8%
xwOBA
580.317
POWER55
Barrel%
346.2
Avg EV
4188.5
Bat Spd
5371.6
EYE55
Chase%
9020.6%
SPEED50
Sprint
4227.1
DEFENSE55
scouting grade only
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1117 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
299
818
wRC+
99
99
wOBA
314
315
ISO
120
128
R
BABIP
293
298
K%
13.7%
17.5%
◀◀L
BB%
8.4%
7.2%
L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2013
Service   12.244 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2027
NTC
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$10M+1.0$8M-$2M
2027Ext$25M+2.5$19M-$4M
2028Ext$25M+1.6$11M-$10M
2029Ext$25M+0.8$3M-$16M
2030Ext$25M+0.1$0.3M-$16M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $112M $41M -$48M
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$48M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201017 ROKDSL Red Sox 280251 63542 18536 45 251316327643 76303 196 287 78
201017 ROKDSL Red Sox 280239 75753 30376 45 314404423826 109353 1311 368 140
201118 AGreenville Drive 296274 5310213 161062 13 193243387630 193252 365 267 63
201118 AGreenville Drive 296265 6914216 25712 13 260329509838 249291 248 361 135
201219 A+2 teams 532495 11825218 251488 55 238286406692 168301 285 298 86
201219 A+2 teams 532476 14637320 441068 55 307375523898 216357 208 392 158
201320 AA3 teams 565509 14021713 471314 83 275341420762 145345 238 331 112
201320 AA3 teams 565488 14325616 681084 83 293384467851 174346 1912 376 146
201421 MLBBoston Red Sox 594538 12325112 391388 23 229291346636 117281 237 280 73 -18 -1 -6 +6 +17 -0.2
201421 MLBBoston Red Sox 594538 12928112 391388 23 240301362663 123296 237 295 84 -11 -1 -6 +6 +17 0.6
201522 MLBBoston Red Sox 654613 1893147 321013 102 308346406752 98358 155 328 109 +7 +1 +10 +7 +19 4.4
201522 MLBBoston Red Sox 654613 1963537 321013 102 320356421777 101372 155 345 122 +16 +1 +10 +7 +19 5.4
201623 MLBBoston Red Sox 719652 18430121 581236 134 282346428774 146319 178 342 120 +16 +1 -7 +8 +20 3.9
201623 MLBBoston Red Sox 719652 19234121 581236 134 294358446804 152335 178 357 132 +26 +1 -7 +8 +20 4.9
201724 MLBBoston Red Sox 635571 15129710 561166 151 264336392729 128315 189 316 100 -0 +3 +5 +7 +18 3.3
201724 MLBBoston Red Sox 635571 15632610 561166 151 273344403747 130327 189 335 115 +10 +3 +5 +7 +18 4.4
201825 MLBBoston Red Sox 580513 14240423 551026 82 277354505859 228302 189 362 135 +23 +1 -0 +6 +16 4.7
201825 MLBBoston Red Sox 580513 14845323 551026 82 288364522887 234317 189 384 152 +34 +1 -0 +6 +16 5.9
201926 MLBBoston Red Sox 698614 18146033 761222 42 295374531905 236318 1711 387 154 +43 +0 -3 +7 +20 6.9
201926 MLBBoston Red Sox 698614 19052033 761222 42 309387555943 246338 1711 408 171 +56 +0 -3 +7 +20 8.2
202027 MLBBoston Red Sox 225203 597011 21410 80 291357488845 197316 189 360 134 +9 +2 -1 +2 +6 1.8
202027 MLBBoston Red Sox 225203 618011 21410 80 300366502869 202329 189 381 150 +13 +2 -1 +2 +6 2.2
202128 MLBBoston Red Sox 603529 14930123 621135 51 282362473835 191315 1910 361 134 +23 +1 -3 +6 +17 4.5
202128 MLBBoston Red Sox 603529 15634123 621135 51 295374493868 198333 1910 379 148 +33 +1 -3 +6 +17 5.5
202229 MLBBoston Red Sox 631557 16434015 5711810 82 294370436806 142346 199 351 127 +19 +1 +8 +7 +18 5.3
202229 MLBBoston Red Sox 631557 17138015 5711810 82 307381456837 149362 199 371 142 +30 +1 +8 +7 +18 6.4
202330 MLBSan Diego Padres 665596 17533220 561107 192 294361456818 163328 178 358 132 +24 +3 +6 +7 +19 6.0
202330 MLBSan Diego Padres 665596 17031219 561107 192 285354440793 154319 178 351 127 +20 +3 +6 +7 +19 5.6
202431 MLB2 teams 478440 11817112 31851 133 268318393711 125304 186 309 95 -3 +1 +5 +2 +14 1.9
202431 MLB2 teams 478439 11516111 32831 133 262314378692 116296 177 307 93 -4 +1 +5 +2 +14 1.8
202532 MLBSan Diego Padres 552491 13332012 48944 202 271341409750 138308 179 324 106 +4 +3 +8 +6 +16 3.7
202532 MLBSan Diego Padres 552491 12930011 48944 202 263333391724 128299 179 322 104 +3 +3 +8 +6 +16 3.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD33 MLBSD 363317 71709 41693 121 224319331650 107257 1911 293 83 -7 +2 +0 +4 +10 0.9
YTD33 MLBSD 363317 71709 41693 121 224319331650 107257 1911 298 86 -6 +2 +0 +4 +10 1.1
ROS33 MLBSD 100% 242214 601216 24442 81 280358430788 150318 1810 345 122 +6 +1 -0 +3 +7 1.7
ROS33 MLBSD 100% 242214 581116 24442 81 271350416766 145314 1810 334 114 +4 +1 -0 +3 +7 1.5
FULL33 MLBSD 605531 12918115 651135 202 243331365696 122281 1911 310 95 -3 +3 +0 +6 +17 2.4
TOT33 MLBSD 605531 13119115 651135 202 247334371705 124286 1911 314 98 -1 +3 +0 +6 +17 2.6
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202734 MLBSD 100% 452402 11021111 44843 112 274350413763 139322 1910 341 119 +10 +1 -5 +5 +13 2.4
202835 MLBSD 100% 396352 941719 38773 71 267344398741 131314 1910 330 110 +5 +1 -6 +4 +11 1.6
202936 MLBSD 100% 337300 771317 32682 31 257332377709 120306 209 317 101 +0 +0 -6 +4 +10 0.8
203037 MLBSD 100% 272243 601015 25572 20 247322358680 111297 219 304 91 -3 +0 -7 +3 +8 0.1
202734 MLBSD 100% 452402 10921110 44843 112 271347403750 132317 1910 332 112 +6 +1 -5 +5 +13 2.1
202835 MLBSD 100% 396352 921718 38773 71 261338384722 122310 1910 320 103 +1 +1 -6 +4 +11 1.2
202936 MLBSD 100% 337300 761317 32682 31 253329373703 120302 209 308 94 -2 +0 -6 +4 +10 0.5
203037 MLBSD 100% 272243 601015 25572 20 247322358680 111294 219 296 84 -5 +0 -7 +3 +8 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career 87687860 221745623233 756160070 15729 282350435785 153325 189 346 123 +230 +20 -3 +92 +248 60.0
/ 162G 650583 16534217 561195 122 283351436787 153327 189 346 123 +17 +2 -0 +7 +18 4.5
Career 104069357 254348841283 860203190 17445 272339423762 152317 208 332 112 +144 +17 -3 +104 +295 56.8
/ 162G 650584 15930318 541276 113 272340426766 154318 208 332 112 +9 +1 -0 +6 +18 3.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201017 ROKDSL Red Sox 280239 75753 30376 45 314404423826 109353 1311 368 140 +13 -1 +8 2.0
201118 AGreenville Drive 296265 6914216 25712 13 260329509838 249291 248 361 135 +12 -1 +8 1.9
201219 AAPortland Sea Dogs 9792 301005 1213 11 326354598952 272373 221 410 172 +8 -0 +3 1.1
201219 A+Salem Red Sox 435384 11627315 43855 44 302380505885 203353 2010 388 155 +27 -1 +12 3.9
201320 MLBBoston Red Sox 5044 11201 5130 10 250327364690 114323 2610 308 94 -0 +0 +0 +2 +1 0.3
201320 AAAPawtucket Red Sox 256225 641109 28442 22 284369453822 169320 1711 366 138 +11 -0 +7 1.8
201320 AAPortland Sea Dogs 259219 681266 35512 51 311410502912 192378 2014 399 163 +19 +1 +7 2.7
201421 MLBBoston Red Sox 594538 12928112 391388 23 240301362663 123296 237 295 84 -11 -1 -6 +6 +17 0.6
201522 MLBBoston Red Sox 654613 1963537 321013 102 320356421777 101372 155 345 122 +16 +1 +10 +7 +19 5.4
201623 MLBBoston Red Sox 719652 19234121 581236 134 294358446804 152335 178 357 132 +26 +1 -7 +8 +20 4.9
201724 MLBBoston Red Sox 635571 15632610 561166 151 273344403747 130327 189 335 115 +10 +3 +5 +7 +18 4.4
201825 MLBBoston Red Sox 580513 14845323 551026 82 288364522887 234317 189 384 152 +34 +1 -0 +6 +16 5.9
201926 MLBBoston Red Sox 698614 19052033 761222 42 309387555943 246338 1711 408 171 +56 +0 -3 +7 +20 8.2
202027 MLBBoston Red Sox 225203 618011 21410 80 300366502869 202329 189 381 150 +13 +2 -1 +2 +6 2.2
202128 MLBBoston Red Sox 603529 15634123 621135 51 295374493868 198333 1910 379 148 +33 +1 -3 +6 +17 5.5
202229 MLBBoston Red Sox 631557 17138015 5711810 82 307381456837 149362 199 371 142 +30 +1 +8 +7 +18 6.4
202330 MLBSan Diego Padres 665596 17031219 561107 192 285354440793 154319 178 351 127 +20 +3 +6 +7 +19 5.6
202431 MLBSan Diego Padres 463428 11315111 28791 133 264311381692 117297 176 306 93 -4 +1 +5 +2 +13 1.7
202431 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas 1511 2100 440 00 182400273673 91286 2727 332 112 +0 +0 +0 0.1
202532 MLBSan Diego Padres 552491 12930011 48944 202 263333391724 128299 179 322 104 +3 +3 +8 +6 +16 3.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 70696349 182238418197 593127058 12624 287353446799 159329 188 353 128 +226 +16 +21 +74 +200 54.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons
199,483252179280345431+91+5958.948.5
/1626641813+6.4+4.24.1pk7: 38
#1A.J. Pierzynskilast yr '16
AS×3SS×2
career totals — 17 seasons, 7,778 PA
177,77818815280318420+116+8147.138.8
/162664161+9.9+6.94.0pk7: 31
#2Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17
career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA
147,29120217267329423+66+6342.937.5
/162664182+6.1+5.83.9pk7: 32
#3Edgar Renterialast yr '11
career totals — 12 seasons, 6,671 PA
126,671117168286344409+41+4538.134.4
/1626641217+4.1+4.43.8pk7: 31
#4Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21
career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA
157,40119591266329423+58+1138.232.2
/162664178+5.2+1.03.4pk7: 26
#5Starlin Castrolast yr '21
career totals — 12 seasons, 6,579 PA
126,57913889280319412+50+6333.029.4
/162664149+5.1+6.33.3pk7: 26
#6Yunel Escobarlast yr '17
career totals — 11 seasons, 5,957 PA
115,9579034282350386+53+4132.429.4
/162664104+5.9+4.63.6pk7: 26

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Xander Bogaerts (OGILVIE) 33 58 55 50 55 247/334/371 124286 1520 19% 11% 98 +2.6
Cameron Maybin
2020 · MLB
33 52→60 47→50 49→55 53 252/333/392 140317 1420 24% 10% 108 +2.3 221/295/348 127305 1213 29% 9% 80 +0.4 164/235/2508624441332%7%28-0.6
Jean Segura
2023 · MLB
33 55→63 46→50 48→60 51 270/332/396 126300 1514 16% 7% 108 +2.3 234/296/331 97269 1013 16% 7% 76 +0.1 226/283/2886225861114%7%56-0.7
Tadahito Iguchi
2008 · MLB
33 55→56 47→50 51→50 55 269/342/409 141309 1413 18% 10% 115 +2.8 245/312/358 113301 1013 20% 9% 89 +1.0 231/291/3057429941422%8%65-0.4
Jerry Hairston Jr.
2009 · MLB
33 54→55 47→50 54→55 50 263/319/408 145286 1319 14% 7% 106 +2.2 257/318/393 136277 1312 13% 7% 102 +1.8 262/328/37811628311711%8%98+1.0
Mark Ellis
2010 · MLB
33 50→60 48→50 50 52 250/310/392 142267 1513 14% 7% 98 +1.6 253/312/357 104283 912 14% 7% 89 +1.0 253/316/3449128771014%7%84+0.5
Tony Graffanino
2005 · MLB
33 53→63 44→50 54→50 55 255/324/376 121279 1115 13% 9% 99 +1.7 274/340/399 125306 119 14% 8% 112 +2.6 276/344/40512930812614%8%109+1.6
Elvis Andrus
2023 · MLB
34 50→60 45→50 51→60 49 245/298/372 127273 1316 16% 7% 88 +0.9 247/303/374 127284 1316 17% 7% 90 +1.0 250/303/35510429391817%6%82+0.3
Miguel Rojas
2022 · MLB
33 57→61 45 51→50 52 278/336/414 136307 1114 14% 7% 114 +2.7 255/308/366 111280 1012 12% 6% 90 +1.0 278/333/411134300121012%7%110+1.1
Brandon Phillips
2014 · MLB
33 53→59 48→55 47→55 48 265/314/402 137285 169 14% 6% 102 +1.9 270/310/383 113297 1211 13% 5% 95 +1.4 285/319/401116308121612%4%100+1.7
Ian Desmond
2019 · MLB
33 45→55 47→60 54→55 47 229/294/365 135278 1519 24% 8% 85 +0.7 222/285/384 162270 1810 24% 8% 86 +0.8 215/273/39017525819425%7%80+0.3
Chris Denorfia
2013 · MLB
33 57→65 47→50 53→55 52 280/337/429 149312 1318 15% 8% 118 +3.0 266/322/388 122314 1113 18% 8% 101 +1.8 263/318/37010731691119%7%92+0.7
Jon Berti
2022 · MLB
32 50→60 44→45 52→60 55 242/337/363 122306 1222 23% 11% 102 +1.9 259/331/370 111325 1033 22% 9% 101 +1.8 270/339/37310233893921%9%102+1.0
Albino Contreras
2013 · AAA
33 53→58 49→50 53→55 47 264/317/409 145300 1718 18% 6% 105 +2.1 261/309/379 118316 1012 20% 6% 94 +1.3 256/308/344883195920%6%81+0.2
Josh Harrison
2019 · MLB
32 53→63 46→55 51→55 45 263/315/396 133298 1411 17% 5% 101 +1.8 246/306/370 124280 1210 16% 6% 91 +1.1 259/322/3731142989616%5%96+0.9
Emil Brown
2008 · MLB
33 55→58 47→50 51→50 51 269/331/408 138308 1312 17% 8% 111 +2.5 242/296/373 131278 148 18% 7% 87 +0.8 233/286/36112926415518%6%76+0.1
Ian Kinsler
2015 · MLB
33 55→63 48→60 48→55 50 273/323/423 150286 1514 11% 6% 111 +2.5 287/340/457 170310 1812 14% 7% 128 +3.6 284/345/463179307201214%7%128+4.0
Mike Aviles
2013 · MLB
32 50→60 47→50 50→55 45 250/283/383 133269 1417 14% 4% 84 +0.6 238/275/351 113257 1215 13% 5% 72 -0.2 235/272/33297252111412%4%64-0.5
Rafael Furcal
2012 · MLB
34 54→63 45→50 52→60 55 263/329/393 130286 1217 13% 9% 106 +2.2 251/314/350 99277 814 12% 8% 88 +0.9 256/316/3287228551411%8%80+0.2
Eduardo Núñez
2019 · MLB
32 55→61 47→50 53→60 45 274/305/408 134295 1420 13% 4% 99 +1.7 238/274/359 121265 1313 16% 4% 74 -0.1 206/223/2857923091615%2%30-1.0
Aaron Boone
2006 · MLB
33 48→57 50→60 50→55 49 247/306/397 150268 1813 16% 7% 98 +1.6 250/320/384 134286 148 17% 7% 101 +1.8 253/327/38112829412518%8%97+0.7