Xander Bogaerts

SS San Diego Padres

Age 34 R/R 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 13.244 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBSD	463	.264/.311/.381	11	13	96	1.6
2025	32	MLBSD	552	.263/.333/.391	11	20	104	3.3
2026	33	MLBSD	606	.231/.334/.344	13	22	96	2.2
2027PROJ	34	MLBSD	452	.260/.341/.389	11	15	111	2.2
2028PROJ	35	MLBSD	370	.250/.329/.366	8	7	101	0.7
2029PROJ	36	MLBSD	294	.239/.317/.342	5	2	91	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service13.244First FA2028NTC

2027Ext$25M2028Ext$25M2029Ext$25M2030Ext$25M2031Ext$25M2032Ext$25M2033Ext$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA61

Bat Spd53

Avg EV48

Speed42

Barrel%32

Form.258/.354/.397 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .264/.342/.394

CompsCameron Maybin (age 34) · Tadahito Iguchi (age 33) · Jerry Hairston Jr. (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 113111vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .341 / .389

PA452

HR11

SB15

K%18

BB%10

BABIP299

ISO133

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$54M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

580.258

POWER

Barrel%

325.9

Avg EV

4889.0

Bat Spd

5371.6

SPEED

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%20%▼▼21% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%12%▲▲15% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.139·.157 over 83 AB (60d) · proj .130

HR/BB3.2%·3.2% over 62 BBE (60d) · proj 3.2%

BABIP.310▲.383 over 60 BIP (60d) · proj .305

SLASH.258/.354/.397·proj .264/.342/.394

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1117 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

299

818

—

wRC+

—

wOBA

314

315

—

ISO

120

128

▶R

BABIP

293

298

—

13.7%

17.5%

◀◀L

BB%

8.4%

7.2%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 13.244 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$25M	+2.1	$17M	-$9M
2028	Ext	$25M	+0.7	$3M	-$20M
2029	Ext	$25M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$76M		$19M	-$50M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$50M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	—	280	239	75	7	5	3	30	37	6	4	5	314	404	423	826	109	353	13	11	368	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A	Greenville Drive	—	296	265	69	14	2	16	25	71	2	1	3	260	329	509	838	249	291	24	8	361	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	97	92	30	10	0	5	1	21	3	1	1	326	354	598	952	272	373	22	1	410	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	435	384	116	27	3	15	43	85	5	4	4	302	380	505	885	203	353	20	10	388	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	50	44	11	2	0	1	5	13	0	1	0	250	327	364	690	114	323	26	10	308	90	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.3
2013	20	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	256	225	64	11	0	9	28	44	2	2	2	284	369	453	822	169	320	17	11	366	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	259	219	68	12	6	6	35	51	2	5	1	311	410	502	912	192	378	20	14	399	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	594	538	129	28	1	12	39	138	8	2	3	240	301	362	663	123	296	23	7	295	80	-14	-1	-6	+6	+13	-0.2
2015	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	654	613	196	35	3	7	32	101	3	10	2	320	356	421	777	101	372	15	5	345	112	+10	+1	+10	+7	+14	4.3
2016	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	719	652	192	34	1	21	58	123	6	13	4	294	358	446	804	152	335	17	8	357	123	+20	+1	-7	+8	+16	3.8
2017	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	635	571	156	32	6	10	56	116	6	15	1	273	344	403	747	130	327	18	9	335	104	+3	+3	+5	+7	+14	3.2
2018	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	580	513	148	45	3	23	55	102	6	8	2	288	364	522	887	234	317	18	9	384	136	+25	+1	-0	+6	+13	4.5
2019	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	698	614	190	52	0	33	76	122	2	4	2	309	387	555	943	246	338	17	11	408	154	+45	+0	-3	+7	+15	6.6
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	225	203	61	8	0	11	21	41	0	8	0	300	366	502	869	202	329	18	9	381	137	+10	+2	-1	+2	+5	1.8
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	603	529	156	34	1	23	62	113	5	5	1	295	374	493	868	198	333	19	10	379	136	+26	+1	-3	+6	+13	4.3
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	631	557	171	38	0	15	57	118	10	8	2	307	381	456	837	149	362	19	9	371	129	+22	+1	+8	+7	+14	5.2
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	665	596	170	31	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	285	354	440	793	154	319	17	8	351	127	+21	+3	+6	+7	+14	5.2
2024	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	463	428	113	15	1	11	28	79	1	13	3	264	311	381	692	117	297	17	6	306	96	-2	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2024	31	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	15	11	2	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	182	400	273	673	91	286	27	27	332	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	552	491	129	30	0	11	48	94	4	20	2	263	333	391	724	128	299	17	9	322	104	+3	+3	+8	+6	+12	3.3
2026	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	606	520	120	18	1	13	77	109	4	22	1	231	334	344	679	113	266	18	13	310	96	-3	+4	+0	+6	+13	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7675	6869	1942	402	19	210	670	1379	62	148	25	283	352	438	790	156	324	18	9	350	123	+208	+20	+21	+80	+166	50.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	280	248	54	5	3	1	21	45	6	4	5	218	295	274	569	56	247	16	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	296	273	57	11	2	13	17	100	2	1	3	209	260	407	667	198	261	34	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	97	92	27	8	0	4	1	27	3	1	1	293	323	511	834	217	354	28	1	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	435	400	101	21	2	14	27	120	5	4	4	253	308	420	728	167	321	28	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	50	44	11	2	0	1	5	13	0	1	0	250	327	364	690	114	323	26	10	301	90	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.3
2013	20	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	256	235	64	9	0	8	18	52	2	2	2	272	329	413	742	140	320	20	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	259	228	71	11	7	5	26	63	2	5	1	311	387	487	874	175	401	24	10	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	594	539	125	25	1	12	38	138	8	2	3	232	292	349	641	117	296	23	6	287	80	-14	-1	-6	+6	+13	-0.2
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	614	190	31	3	7	31	101	3	10	2	309	346	404	750	94	372	15	5	334	112	+10	+1	+10	+7	+14	4.3
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	719	652	187	30	1	22	58	123	6	13	4	287	351	437	788	150	335	17	8	350	123	+20	+1	-7	+8	+16	3.8
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	635	577	151	28	7	10	50	116	6	15	1	262	327	386	713	125	327	18	8	321	104	+3	+3	+5	+7	+14	3.2
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	580	517	143	40	3	24	51	102	6	8	2	277	348	505	853	228	317	18	9	370	136	+25	+1	-0	+6	+13	4.5
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	698	616	183	46	0	34	74	122	2	4	2	297	374	537	912	240	338	17	11	396	154	+45	+0	-3	+7	+15	6.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	225	205	59	7	0	11	19	41	0	8	0	288	348	483	831	195	329	18	8	370	137	+10	+2	-1	+2	+5	1.8
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	603	531	152	30	1	24	60	113	5	5	1	286	364	482	846	196	333	19	10	369	136	+26	+1	-3	+6	+13	4.3
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	631	559	165	34	0	15	55	118	10	8	2	295	369	436	805	141	362	19	9	359	129	+22	+1	+8	+7	+14	5.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	665	596	173	33	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	290	358	448	806	158	319	17	8	355	127	+21	+3	+6	+7	+14	5.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	463	428	115	16	1	11	28	79	1	13	3	269	315	388	703	119	297	17	6	309	96	-2	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.6
2024	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	15	12	2	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	167	333	250	583	83	231	33	20	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	552	494	132	32	0	11	45	94	4	20	2	267	333	399	732	132	299	17	8	323	104	+3	+3	+8	+6	+12	3.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	606	522	122	19	1	13	75	109	4	22	1	234	334	349	683	115	266	18	12	311	96	-3	+4	+0	+6	+13	2.2
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	280	248	54	5	3	1	21	45	6	4	5	218	295	274	569	56	256	16	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox	—	280	239	75	7	5	3	30	37	6	4	5	314	404	423	826	109	353	13	11	368	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	296	273	57	11	2	13	17	100	2	1	3	209	260	407	667	198	268	34	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	296	265	69	14	2	16	25	71	2	1	3	260	329	509	838	249	291	24	8	361	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	493	128	29	2	18	27	146	8	5	5	260	309	436	745	176	331	27	5	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	532	476	146	37	3	20	44	106	8	5	5	307	375	523	898	216	357	20	8	392	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	565	506	146	23	7	13	50	128	4	8	3	289	357	439	796	150	361	23	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	565	488	143	25	6	16	68	108	4	8	3	293	384	467	851	174	346	19	12	376	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	594	539	125	25	1	12	38	138	8	2	3	232	292	349	641	117	285	23	6	287	80	-14	-1	-6	+6	+13	-0.2
2014	21	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	594	538	129	28	1	12	39	138	8	2	3	240	301	362	663	123	296	23	7	295	80	-14	-1	-6	+6	+13	-0.2
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	614	190	31	3	7	31	101	3	10	2	309	346	404	750	94	360	15	5	334	112	+10	+1	+10	+7	+14	4.3
2015	22	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	654	613	196	35	3	7	32	101	3	10	2	320	356	421	777	101	372	15	5	345	112	+10	+1	+10	+7	+14	4.3
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	719	652	187	30	1	22	58	123	6	13	4	287	351	437	788	150	324	17	8	350	123	+20	+1	-7	+8	+16	3.8
2016	23	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	719	652	192	34	1	21	58	123	6	13	4	294	358	446	804	152	335	17	8	357	123	+20	+1	-7	+8	+16	3.8
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	635	577	151	28	7	10	50	116	6	15	1	262	327	386	713	125	311	18	8	321	104	+3	+3	+5	+7	+14	3.2
2017	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	635	571	156	32	6	10	56	116	6	15	1	273	344	403	747	130	327	18	9	335	104	+3	+3	+5	+7	+14	3.2
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	580	517	143	40	3	24	51	102	6	8	2	277	348	505	853	228	300	18	9	370	136	+25	+1	-0	+6	+13	4.5
2018	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	580	513	148	45	3	23	55	102	6	8	2	288	364	522	887	234	317	18	9	384	136	+25	+1	-0	+6	+13	4.5
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	698	616	183	46	0	34	74	122	2	4	2	297	374	537	912	240	320	17	11	396	154	+45	+0	-3	+7	+15	6.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	698	614	190	52	0	33	76	122	2	4	2	309	387	555	943	246	338	17	11	408	154	+45	+0	-3	+7	+15	6.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	225	205	59	7	0	11	19	41	0	8	0	288	348	483	831	195	312	18	8	370	137	+10	+2	-1	+2	+5	1.8
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	225	203	61	8	0	11	21	41	0	8	0	300	366	502	869	202	329	18	9	381	137	+10	+2	-1	+2	+5	1.8
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	603	531	152	30	1	24	60	113	5	5	1	286	364	482	846	196	319	19	10	369	136	+26	+1	-3	+6	+13	4.3
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	603	529	156	34	1	23	62	113	5	5	1	295	374	493	868	198	333	19	10	379	136	+26	+1	-3	+6	+13	4.3
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	631	559	165	34	0	15	55	118	10	8	2	295	369	436	805	141	346	19	9	359	129	+22	+1	+8	+7	+14	5.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	631	557	171	38	0	15	57	118	10	8	2	307	381	456	837	149	362	19	9	371	129	+22	+1	+8	+7	+14	5.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	665	596	173	33	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	290	358	448	806	158	326	17	8	355	127	+21	+3	+6	+7	+14	5.2
2023	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	665	596	170	31	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	285	354	440	793	154	319	17	8	351	127	+21	+3	+6	+7	+14	5.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	478	440	117	17	1	11	31	84	1	13	3	266	316	384	700	118	302	18	6	307	94	-3	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.5
2024	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	478	439	115	16	1	11	32	83	1	13	3	262	314	378	692	116	296	17	7	307	94	-3	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	552	494	132	32	0	11	45	94	4	20	2	267	333	399	732	132	305	17	8	323	104	+3	+3	+8	+6	+12	3.3
2025	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	552	491	129	30	0	11	48	94	4	20	2	263	333	391	724	128	299	17	9	322	104	+3	+3	+8	+6	+12	3.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	606	522	122	19	1	13	75	109	4	22	1	234	334	349	683	115	269	18	12	311	96	-3	+4	+0	+6	+13	2.2
2026	33	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	606	520	120	18	1	13	77	109	4	22	1	231	334	344	679	113	266	18	13	310	96	-3	+4	+0	+6	+13	2.2
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	280	251	54	5	3	1	21	45	6	4	5	215	295	271	565	56	247	16	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	296	275	57	11	2	13	17	100	2	1	3	207	260	404	664	196	261	34	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	492	128	29	2	18	27	146	8	5	5	260	309	437	746	177	327	27	5	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	565	506	146	23	7	13	50	128	4	8	3	289	357	439	796	150	357	23	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	594	543	125	25	1	12	38	138	8	2	3	230	292	346	639	116	296	23	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	615	190	31	3	7	31	101	3	10	2	309	346	403	749	94	372	15	5	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	719	649	187	30	1	22	58	123	6	13	4	288	351	439	790	151	335	17	8	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	635	574	151	28	7	10	50	116	6	15	1	263	327	389	716	125	327	18	8	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	580	518	143	40	3	24	51	102	6	8	2	276	348	504	852	228	317	18	9	370	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	698	617	183	46	0	34	74	122	2	4	2	297	374	536	911	240	338	17	11	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	225	204	59	7	0	11	19	41	0	8	0	289	348	485	834	196	329	18	8	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	603	533	152	30	1	24	60	113	5	5	1	285	364	480	844	195	333	19	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	631	561	165	34	0	15	55	118	10	8	2	294	369	435	804	141	362	19	9	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	665	597	173	33	2	19	56	110	7	19	2	290	358	447	805	157	319	17	8	355	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	478	443	117	17	1	11	31	84	1	13	3	264	316	381	697	117	294	18	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	552	498	132	32	0	11	45	94	4	20	2	265	333	396	729	131	299	17	8	323	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	606	522	122	19	1	13	75	109	4	22	1	234	334	349	683	115	266	18	12	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	478	443	117	17	1	11	31	84	1	13	3	264	316	381	697	117	294	18	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	552	498	132	32	0	11	45	94	4	20	2	265	333	396	729	131	299	17	8	323	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	606	522	122	19	1	13	75	109	4	22	1	234	334	349	683	115	266	18	12	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SD	100%	526	464	122	22	1	12	54	93	3	17	5	264	345	394	739	130	305	18	10	332	111	+7	+1	-1	+6	+11	2.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	SD	100%	452	400	105	18	1	11	46	80	3	15	4	260	341	389	730	129	299	18	10	328	111	+6	+1	-1	+5	+10	2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	100%	370	328	83	14	1	8	37	69	2	7	2	253	333	371	703	117	296	19	10	317	101	+0	+1	-6	+4	+8	0.7
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	100%	294	262	62	10	0	5	29	57	1	2	1	242	320	347	667	104	288	19	10	302	91	-3	+0	-7	+3	+6	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	100%	370	328	83	14	1	8	37	69	2	7	2	250	329	366	695	116	291	19	10	314	101	+0	+1	-6	+4	+8	0.7
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	100%	294	262	62	10	0	5	29	57	1	2	1	239	317	342	659	103	283	19	10	299	91	-3	+0	-7	+3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8339	7459	2087	426	20	223	736	1505	65	157	28	280	350	432	782	152	321	18	9	346	113	+205	+20	+9	+88	+181	51.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	163	33	2	17	57	117	5	12	2	281	350	432	782	151	322	18	9	346	113	+16	+2	+1	+7	+14	4.0
Career	—	MLE		—	10429	9372	2534	483	36	281	870	1996	88	189	48	270	338	420	758	149	314	19	8	335	113	+211	+22	+8	+92	+190	53.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	158	30	2	18	54	124	5	12	3	271	337	421	758	151	313	19	8	335	113	+16	+2	+1	+7	+14	3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 15 PAwOBA .326 → .238 (−88)K% 26.7% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	33.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.67%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×0.952	17.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.025	×0.930	—	×0.952	12.34%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.053	×0.830	—	×0.952	10.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .238; ISO .091 → .073; BABIP .286 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 259 PAwOBA .392 → .375 (−17)K% 19.7% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.69%	÷0.989	×1.220	—	—	24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.51%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×1.050	10.19%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.69%
Singles /BIP	26.19%	÷0.980	×0.970	×1.047	×1.050	28.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.987	×0.860	×1.047	×1.050	6.84%
Triples /BIP	3.57%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.047	×1.050	4.14%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.026	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.85%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .392 → .375; ISO .192 → .182; BABIP .378 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 256 PAwOBA .355 → .323 (−32)K% 17.2% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.19%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	20.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.55%	÷1.069	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.15%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.77%
Singles /BIP	24.31%	÷0.964	×0.930	×1.040	×1.050	25.60%
Doubles /BIP	6.08%	÷1.083	×0.830	×1.040	×1.050	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.970	×1.040	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.97%	÷1.068	×0.840	—	×1.050	4.10%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .355 → .323; ISO .169 → .142; BABIP .320 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Salem Red Sox · 435 PAwOBA .378 → .314 (−64)K% 19.5% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.54%	÷1.008	×1.420	—	—	27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.66%	÷1.035	×0.630	—	×1.042	6.12%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	1.03%
Singles /BIP	23.75%	÷1.041	×0.940	×1.015	×1.042	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.03%	÷1.089	×0.830	×1.015	×1.042	7.28%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.015	×1.042	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷0.944	×0.900	—	×1.042	4.99%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .378 → .314; ISO .203 → .176; BABIP .353 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 97 PAwOBA .401 → .338 (−63)K% 21.6% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.65%	÷0.958	×1.220	—	—	27.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.03%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.76%
HBP% /PA	3.09%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	2.76%
Singles /BIP	21.13%	÷1.007	×0.970	×1.033	×1.050	22.08%
Doubles /BIP	14.08%	÷1.095	×0.860	×1.033	×1.050	12.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.033	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.04%	÷1.098	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .401 → .338; ISO .272 → .202; BABIP .373 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AGreenville Drive · 296 PAwOBA .356 → .286 (−70)K% 24.0% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.99%	÷0.950	×1.340	—	—	33.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.011	×0.660	—	×1.045	5.76%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.54%
Singles /BIP	19.07%	÷1.055	×0.920	×1.015	×1.045	17.63%
Doubles /BIP	7.22%	÷1.025	×0.820	×1.015	×1.045	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷1.026	×0.940	×1.015	×1.045	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.25%	÷0.939	×0.820	—	×1.045	7.53%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 111, 2B 105, 3B 105, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .356 → .286; ISO .249 → .205; BABIP .291 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 DSLDSL Red Sox · 280 PAwOBA .365 → .257 (−108)K% 13.2% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.21%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.56%
HBP% /PA	2.14%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.51%
Singles /BIP	29.70%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.047	×1.008	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	3.47%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.047	×1.008	2.19%
Triples /BIP	2.48%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.047	×1.008	1.57%
Home runs /BIP	1.49%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.70%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .365 → .257; ISO .109 → .065; BABIP .353 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Barry Larkin'86-'04 * career totals — 19 seasons, 9,057 PA	13.6	9,057	198	379	287*	361*	451*	+96	+6	66.1	53.9
/162	664	15	28	+7.1	+0.4	4.8	pk7: 42
#2Miguel Tejada'97-'13 * career totals — 16 seasons, 9,203 PA	13.9	9,203	307	85	275*	327*	447*	+88	+94	60.5	51.9
/162	664	22	6	+6.4	+6.8	4.4	pk7: 43
#3Lou Whitaker'77-'95 * career totals — 18 seasons, 9,967 PA	15.0	9,967	244	143	272*	361*	446*	+32	+27	62.5	47.1
/162	664	16	10	+2.1	+1.8	4.2	pk7: 32
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 17 projected seasons	13.2	8,791	233	173	280	346	432	+89	+53	55.8	46.9
/162	664	18	13	+6.8	+4.0	4.2	pk7: 38
#4Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	11.0	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
/162	664	18	2	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#5Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#6Starlin Castrolast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	138	89	280	319	412	+50	+63	33.0	29.4
/162	664	14	9	+5.1	+6.3	3.3	pk7: 26

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Xander Bogaerts (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	262/342/391	129	305	10	15	18%	10%	111	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cameron Maybin 2021 · MLB	34	52→60	47→50	48→55	51	254/329/400	145	325	14	15	25%	10%	107	+1.8	207/279/326	119	292	11	12	31%	8%	72	-0.7	93/171/130	37	150	3	9	37%	7%	-14	-1.4
✕Tadahito Iguchi 2008 · MLB	33	55→56	47→50	51→50	55	268/341/409	140	308	14	13	18%	10%	114	+2.3	245/311/357	112	301	10	13	20%	9%	91	+0.6	231/291/305	74	299	4	14	22%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Jerry Hairston Jr. 2010 · MLB	34	52→55	48→50	50→55	52	259/319/408	149	276	14	15	13%	7%	105	+1.7	257/318/380	123	279	12	9	12%	7%	98	+1.2	259/322/370	111	281	10	7	11%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Elvis Andrus 2023 · MLB	34	49→59	45→50	51→60	49	244/296/371	127	271	13	16	16%	6%	88	+0.5	247/301/374	127	284	13	16	17%	7%	91	+0.6	250/300/355	105	292	9	18	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Miguel Rojas 2022 · MLB	33	57→61	45	51→50	51	277/334/416	138	306	11	14	14%	7%	112	+2.2	253/306/365	112	278	9	12	12%	6%	90	+0.6	271/325/398	128	294	11	9	12%	7%	107	+0.9
✕Jean Segura 2023 · MLB	33	55→62	46→50	48→60	50	270/329/395	124	301	14	14	15%	7%	106	+1.8	232/293/329	97	267	10	13	17%	7%	77	-0.3	223/278/287	63	255	6	11	14%	6%	62	-0.8
✕Agustin Murillo 2016 · AAA	34	52→62	47→45	54→55	50	256/311/387	131	274	15	24	13%	7%	97	+1.1	241/290/340	99	267	10	17	13%	6%	78	-0.3	234/284/319	85	261	9	16	14%	5%	70	-0.5
✕Daniel Mayora 2019 · AAA	34	58→57	43→45	52→50	45	283/329/396	113	337	11	15	19%	6%	105	+1.7	263/312/387	124	309	12	6	18%	6%	97	+1.1	276/323/397	120	321	11	1	17%	5%	102	+1.3
✕Tony Graffanino 2006 · MLB	34	58→63	43→45	52→50	53	279/340/394	115	306	10	13	13%	8%	109	+2.0	264/327/394	130	296	12	7	14%	8%	105	+1.7	259/324/388	129	290	11	3	14%	8%	102	+0.7
●Denard Span 2018 · MLB	34	56→64	47→50	49→55	53	273/332/416	143	294	13	13	12%	8%	112	+2.2	260/334/416	156	291	14	11	15%	9%	112	+2.2	259/344/418	159	294	14	11	16%	10%	117	+2.1
✕Rafael Furcal 2012 · MLB	34	54→63	45→50	52→60	54	262/324/393	131	283	12	17	13%	8%	103	+1.6	250/311/348	98	275	9	14	12%	8%	88	+0.4	252/312/325	72	281	5	14	11%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Jon Berti 2022 · MLB	32	50→60	45	53→60	56	241/337/365	124	305	12	22	23%	11%	103	+1.5	258/329/370	112	324	10	33	21%	9%	100	+1.3	268/335/372	103	335	9	39	21%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Jesse Castillo 2017 · AAA	34	54→61	43→45	48→50	51	261/321/371	110	307	10	15	18%	8%	97	+1.1	257/313/386	129	298	14	12	18%	7%	98	+1.2	267/321/401	134	299	17	10	16%	7%	106	+1.4
✕Hiram Bocachica 2010 · MLB	34	46	50→55	50→55	53	234/317/391	156	265	17	17	19%	9%	101	+1.4	220/294/371	151	260	17	16	22%	8%	88	+0.5	198/279/351	153	229	17	20	22%	8%	77	-0.1
✕Alexei Ramirez 2016 · MLB	34	54→59	43→50	50→55	46	260/294/376	116	278	11	18	12%	4%	88	+0.4	241/280/351	110	264	10	12	13%	5%	77	-0.3	235/269/328	93	260	7	9	12%	4%	68	-0.9
✕Rafael Ortega 2023 · MLB	32	50→55	48→55	48→55	54	248/326/390	142	292	16	18	20%	10%	103	+1.6	217/303/341	124	268	13	21	22%	11%	84	+0.2	200/296/311	111	248	11	26	23%	12%	74	-0.4
✕Marlon Anderson 2008 · MLB	34	52→58	51→55	48→50	51	261/320/429	167	291	18	13	17%	8%	111	+2.1	233/291/358	125	273	12	11	19%	7%	83	+0.1	204/252/267	63	246	4	8	18%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Whit Merrifield 2023 · MLB	34	53→63	45→55	55→60	49	261/308/389	128	290	12	23	15%	6%	97	+1.1	251/309/365	114	289	11	24	16%	7%	91	+0.7	251/311/353	102	290	10	28	17%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Terry Shumpert 2001 · MLB	34	50	52→50	54→55	55	253/331/435	182	269	18	14	14%	9%	116	+2.5	249/313/401	152	281	14	17	16%	7%	101	+1.4	254/311/392	138	290	11	20	16%	6%	99	+0.6
●Marco Scutaro 2010 · MLB	34	56→63	43→45	47→45	62	269/355/383	114	290	10	10	11%	11%	113	+2.3	276/339/389	113	295	10	7	10%	8%	107	+1.9	294/348/387	94	310	6	5	7%	7%	111	+2.0

Xander Bogaerts

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps