Max Fried — OGILVIE

Max Fried P New York Yankees

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 4.3 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 158 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6775vR 83

ERA3.26

FIP3.28

K%24.0%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP158

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$73M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5560

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.246

CT+5.0 (23%)

FB+3.4 (38%)

CH+2.7 (12%)

SL+1.4 (13%)

SI (21%)

CU (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Ext	$27M	+3.1	$29M	+$1M
2028	Ext	$27M	+2.3	$17M	-$7M
2029	Ext	$27M	+1.5	$10M	-$12M
2030	Ext	$27M	+0.8	$3M	-$17M
2031	Ext	$27M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$17M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$136M		$59M	-$53M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$53M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	A MLE	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.2%	3.93	4.85	—
2016	22	A RAW	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.3%	2.4%	3.93	3.56	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	2.6%	5.16	4.44	+0.6
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.1%	5.16	3.77	+1.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	1.7%	3.64	3.49	+1.9
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	1.5%	3.64	3.02	+2.6
2019	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.45	+2.9
2019	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.46	+2.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.78	+1.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.80	+1.5
2021	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+3.7
2021	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+3.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.56	+5.6
2022	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.59	+5.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.90	+2.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	2.5%	2.71	3.07	+2.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+5.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+5.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.7%	2.86	2.88	+5.0
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	0.9%	2.88	2.51	+3.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	0.9%	2.88	2.51	+3.5
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	1.1%	2.88	2.67	+3.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			220	203	1192	4849	1156	324	94	92%	5.4	23.8%	6.7%	17.2%	1.9%	3.01	3.00	+28.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	NYY	26	26	158	667	160	48	11	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	1.7%	3.26	3.28	+3.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	144	608	140	47	12	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.45	3.58	+2.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	129	546	121	45	13	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.3%	3.73	3.92	+1.5
2030	36	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	483	102	43	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.06	4.29	+0.8
2031	37	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	421	84	40	13	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.5%	10.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.69	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	144	608	140	47	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.1%	3.52	3.65	+2.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	129	545	121	45	13	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.5%	3.82	4.01	+1.5
2030	36	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	114	481	102	42	14	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.16	4.39	+0.8
2031	37	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	85	40	14	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.5%	10.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.80	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		301	284	1680	6906	1603	498	148	94%	5.6	23.2%	7.2%	16.0%	2.1%	3.29	3.23	+34.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	822	191	59	18	94%	5.6	23.2%	7.2%	16.0%	2.1%	3.29	3.23	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		282	264	1481	6073	1400	467	124	94%	5.3	23.0%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.29	3.25	+32.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	820	189	63	17	94%	5.3	23.0%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.29	3.25	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Fried (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.28	24.0%	7.2%	1.7%	—	3.90	22.2%	14.0%	388	+0.62	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2024 · 3.41 FIP	33	SP	3.41	28.0%	6.0%	3.5%	.308	3.93	22.4%	13.1%	246	+0.52	3.23	1,056	67
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	40
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	39
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	39
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	38
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	38
Carlos Hernandez L 2019 · 2.83 FIP	32	SP	2.83	17.9%	5.5%	1.0%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	331	38
Mark Hendrickson L 2007 · 3.78 FIP	33	SW	3.78	17.3%	4.7%	2.8%	.318	4.32	14.2%	8.0%	314	+0.54	3.04	1,169	37
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	35
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	34
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	34
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	33
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	33
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	33
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	33	SP	3.87	20.7%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	31
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	28
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	27
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	27
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	24
Pat Misch L 2015 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP-	3.94	11.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.2	123	23.3%	7.3%	0.80	3.26
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	13.3	157	19.8%	6.6%	0.79	3.53
Marcus Stroman ('25)	7.5	136	19.6%	7.2%	0.87	3.79
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Alex Cobb ('24)	6.6	121	19.9%	6.9%	0.95	3.84