Max Fried — OGILVIE

Max Fried P New York Yankees

Age 32 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 4.0 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 80 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6069vR 78

ERA2.90

FIP2.94

K%22.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP80

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6065

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.253

CT+5.0 (22%)

FB+3.4 (39%)

CH+2.7 (14%)

SL+1.4 (11%)

SI (22%)

CU (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$11M	+1.7	$14M	+$3M
2027	Ext	$27M	+3.3	$24M	-$0.1M
2028	Ext	$27M	+2.5	$17M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$27M	+1.8	$11M	-$8M
2030	Ext	$27M	+1.1	$6M	-$11M
2031	Ext	$27M	+0.4	$1M	-$15M
2032	Ext	$27M	—	—	—
Totals		$174M		$74M	-$52M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$52M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	22	A	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.3%	3.93	4.91	—
2016	22	A	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.3%	2.4%	3.93	3.56	—
2017	23	MIX	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	2.8%	5.16	4.54	+1.2
2017	23	MIX	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.1%	5.16	3.77	+2.3
2018	24	MIX	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.50	+2.5
2018	24	MIX	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	1.5%	3.64	3.02	+3.1
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.45	+3.8
2019	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.46	+3.8
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.78	+1.2
2020	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.80	+1.1
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+4.4
2021	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+4.4
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.56	+6.2
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.59	+6.1
2023	29	MIX	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.90	+2.4
2023	29	MIX	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	2.5%	2.71	3.07	+2.2
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+4.6
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+4.6
2025	31	MLB	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+5.9
2025	31	MLB	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.7%	2.86	2.88	+5.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	New York Yankees	10	10	62	240	50	19	1	100%	6.2	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	0.4%	3.21	2.57	+1.5
ROS	32	MLB	NYY	13	13	80	337	75	25	5	100%	6.1	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	1.4%	2.90	2.94	+1.9
ROS	32	MLB	NYY	13	13	80	338	75	25	5	100%	6.2	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	1.5%	2.93	2.97	+1.9
2026 TOT	32	MLB	NYY	—	—	142	577	125	44	6	—	—	21.6%	7.6%	14.0%	1.0%	3.03	2.78	+4.3
2026 FULL	32	MLB	NYY	—	—	142	598	125	44	6	—	—	20.9%	7.3%	13.5%	1.0%	3.05	2.81	+4.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	NYY	26	26	157	665	144	52	11	100%	6.1	21.6%	7.8%	13.9%	1.7%	3.45	3.58	+3.4
2028	34	MLB	NYY	24	24	143	605	125	50	12	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.0%	3.71	3.88	+2.5
2029	35	MLB	NYY	21	21	128	543	107	48	13	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.4%	4.02	4.22	+1.8
2030	36	MLB	NYY	19	19	114	480	90	45	13	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.59	+1.1
2031	37	MLB	NYY	17	17	99	419	74	42	13	100%	5.8	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.74	4.99	+0.5
2032	38	MLB	NYY	14	14	85	360	59	39	13	100%	6.1	16.5%	10.8%	5.8%	3.6%	5.15	5.42	-0.3
2027	33	MLB	NYY	26	26	157	663	144	51	12	100%	6.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.9%	1.8%	3.49	3.62	+3.3
2028	34	MLB	NYY	24	24	143	604	125	50	13	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.1%	3.75	3.92	+2.5
2029	35	MLB	NYY	21	21	128	540	107	48	13	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.4%	4.07	4.27	+1.7
2030	36	MLB	NYY	19	19	114	481	90	45	14	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.42	4.65	+1.0
2031	37	MLB	NYY	16	16	99	418	74	42	14	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.3%	4.80	5.05	+0.4
2032	38	MLB	NYY	14	14	85	359	59	39	13	100%	6.1	16.5%	10.8%	5.8%	3.7%	5.22	5.49	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			344	327	1949	8063	1777	610	175	95%	5.7	22.0%	7.6%	14.5%	2.2%	3.46	3.39	+45.9
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	828	182	63	18	95%	5.7	22.0%	7.6%	14.5%	2.2%	3.46	3.39	+4.7
Career	—			271	253	1427	5865	1342	452	122	93%	5.3	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	2.1%	3.32	3.29	+35.2
/ 200 IP	—			38	35	200	822	188	63	17	93%	5.3	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	2.1%	3.32	3.29	+4.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Fried (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.40	23.8%	6.9%	1.9%	—	3.87	20.8%	12.6%	429	+0.47	—	—	—
J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.28 FIP	32	SP	3.28	21.1%	5.7%	2.2%	.308	3.72	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.44	3.28	1,053	49
Jorge De La Rosa L 2028 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	21.1%	9.8%	2.1%	.284	4.20	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.52	3.68	405	46
Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	23.6%	9.0%	2.8%	.294	4.05	21.4%	12.9%	480	+0.29	3.22	893	46
Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.25 FIP	32	SP	3.25	24.7%	6.5%	2.6%	.253	4.01	21.6%	14.0%	534	+0.76	2.74	1,144	44
Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.57 FIP	32	SP	4.57	23.0%	11.5%	3.6%	.289	4.59	19.5%	7.6%	301	+0.02	3.07	650	42
C.J. Wilson L 2028 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	19.9%	8.0%	2.4%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	132	42
CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.30 FIP	35	SP	4.30	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.96	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.75	756	42
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	32	SP	3.90	25.9%	6.9%	3.9%	.311	3.68	25.1%	17.3%	385	-0.22	3.25	1,019	42
Scott Diamond L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP	3.36	12.7%	4.8%	1.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	316	41
Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP	4.05	19.8%	10.5%	2.4%	.298	4.12	21.8%	11.6%	139	+0.07	2.90	864	40
David Price L 2026 · 3.79 FIP	32	SP	3.79	24.5%	6.9%	3.4%	.268	3.63	23.8%	16.6%	181	-0.16	2.65	922	39
Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	32	SP	4.35	15.0%	6.2%	3.1%	.264	5.50	12.0%	3.7%	159	+1.15	4.35	327	39
Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.85 FIP	34	SP	3.85	14.2%	6.9%	2.0%	.298	4.45	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.60	3.85	237	38
Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP	4.30	22.7%	8.3%	3.8%	.290	6.22	8.7%	-4.3%	12	+1.92	3.72	395	38
Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	33	SP	4.40	16.8%	9.2%	2.8%	.292	4.68	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.28	4.40	408	38
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2028 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	119	38
Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	14.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	311	38
Roy Merritt L 2025 · 3.88 FIP	31	SP	3.88	16.2%	5.8%	2.6%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	129	37
Yohan Flande L 2025 · 3.16 FIP	31	SP	3.16	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.20	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.04	3.16	335	37
Eric Stults L 2029 · 4.25 FIP	35	SP	4.25	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	138	37

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	126	20.3%	8.6%	0.92	3.98
Gio Gonzalez ('20)	6	141	21.8%	9.5%	0.85	3.85
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Jake Arrieta ('21)	7	149	21.9%	8.0%	1.04	3.71
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	7	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Dallas Keuchel ('23)	9	132	18.7%	7.3%	0.96	3.97