Max Fried
P
New York Yankees
+3.3
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 3.3 · 2026
ERA3.25
FIP3.45
xFIP3.83
SIERA3.92
K%23.6%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%16.5%
IP168
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.3peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.243
CT+5.0 (22%)
FB+3.4 (39%)
CH+2.7 (14%)
SL+1.4 (10%)
SI (22%)
CU (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | 21 | 20 | 103 | 425 | 112 | 47 | 10 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 25 | 119 | 526 | 113 | 54 | 11 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 4.46 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 20 | 111 | 474 | 131 | 54 | 7 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.52 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 30 | 166 | 702 | 173 | 44 | 21 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.37 | +3.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 11 | 11 | 56 | 224 | 50 | 19 | 2 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 2.25 | 2.76 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 28 | 166 | 667 | 158 | 41 | 15 | 23.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 3.04 | 3.12 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 30 | 185 | 733 | 170 | 30 | 12 | 23.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.48 | 2.46 | +6.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 18 | 90 | 359 | 93 | 22 | 9 | 25.7% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 2.71 | 2.84 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 29 | 174 | 714 | 166 | 57 | 13 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 3.25 | 3.23 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 32 | 195 | 801 | 189 | 51 | 14 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 2.86 | 2.80 | +5.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 5 | 5 | 33 | 127 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 2.97 | 2.80 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 112 | 35 | 9 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 2.83 | 3.08 | +3.1 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 156 | 646 | 135 | 43 | 10 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 2.86 | 3.02 | +4.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 124 | 41 | 11 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 3.44 | 3.59 | +2.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 105 | 37 | 10 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 3.61 | 3.73 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 89 | 34 | 9 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 3.88 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 74 | 30 | 8 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 4.04 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 4.21 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 4.13 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 248 | 1398 | 5752 | 1315 | 441 | 119 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.32 | 3.28 | +32.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 823 | 188 | 63 | 17 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.32 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Fried (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.42 | 24.1% | 7.0% | 2.0% | — | 3.72 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 369 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Scott Diamond L 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 316 | 47 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.42 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.43 | 3.99 | 405 | 44 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.20 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.55 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 43 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.65 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 132 | 43 |
| CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.13 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.27 | 3.67 | 756 | 42 |
| Eric Stults L 2029 · 4.27 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.27 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 138 | 42 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.74 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.17 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 480 | +0.43 | 3.22 | 893 | 41 |
| Duane Below L 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.56 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 189 | 41 |
| Yohan Flande L 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.17 | 15.9% | 6.4% | 1.1% | .346 | 4.21 | 10.0% | -1.9% | 23 | +1.04 | 3.17 | 335 | 40 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.91 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 4.06 | 21.8% | 11.6% | 139 | +0.15 | 2.84 | 864 | 39 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 24.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .253 | 4.11 | 21.6% | 14.0% | 534 | +0.67 | 2.69 | 1,144 | 36 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .284 | 3.75 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 230 | -0.48 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 35 |
| Andrew Albers L 2025 · 2.95 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.95 | 20.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 508 | 35 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .290 | 6.46 | 8.7% | -4.3% | 12 | +2.18 | 3.70 | 395 | 35 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.77 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 3.53 | 23.8% | 16.6% | 181 | -0.24 | 2.58 | 922 | 32 |
| Greg Smith L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 31 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.03 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | .311 | 3.77 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 372 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 1,006 | 31 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 30 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 30 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 30 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 7.860 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
NTC
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +3.3 | $26M | -$0.9M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +2.7 | $22M | -$5M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +2.2 | $19M | -$9M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.7 | $15M | -$12M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.3 | $12M | -$16M |
| 2031 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.8 | $4M | -$24M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.7 | $3M | -$24M |
| Totals | $191M | $101M | -$90M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$90M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$90M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.