Max Fried

P New York Yankees

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBATL	29	29	174	3.25	3.15	23.2%	8.0%	4.9
2025	31	MLBNYY	32	32	195	2.86	2.88	23.6%	6.4%	6.3
2026	32	MIX2 levels	21	21	116	2.88	2.67	23.9%	7.4%	4.0	K 24.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 2.51
2027PROJ	33	MLBNYY	16	16	98	3.26	3.28	24.0%	7.2%	2.6
2028PROJ	34	MLBNYY	16	16	96	3.52	3.65	23.1%	7.7%	2.1
2029PROJ	35	MLBNYY	13	13	77	3.82	4.01	22.1%	8.2%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 15.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service8.860First FA2028NTC

2027Ext$27M2028Ext$27M2029Ext$27M2030Ext$27M2031Ext$27M2032Ext$27M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%60

FB Velo54

Form2.73 ERA (proj 3.26) · K 24.5% (proj 24.0%) · BB 5.9% (proj 7.2%) · last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsYusei Kikuchi (age 33) · Tsuyoshi Wada (age 33) · Oscar Rivera (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6775vR 83

ERA3.26

FIP3.28

K%24.0%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$79M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.246

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$27M	+2.6	$21M	-$6M
2028	Ext	$27M	+2.1	$16M	-$9M
2029	Ext	$27M	+1.4	$10M	-$12M
2030	Ext	$27M	+0.7	$2M	-$18M
2031	Ext	$27M	+0.3	$0.9M	-$17M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$136M		$50M	-$62M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$62M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	A MLE	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.2%	3.93	4.85	—
2016	22	A RAW	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.3%	2.4%	3.93	3.56	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	2.6%	5.16	4.44	+1.3
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.1%	5.16	3.77	+2.3
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	1.7%	3.64	3.49	+2.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	1.5%	3.64	3.02	+3.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.45	+3.9
2019	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.46	+3.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.78	+1.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.80	+1.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+4.7
2021	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+4.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.56	+6.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.59	+6.7
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.90	+2.8
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	2.5%	2.71	3.07	+2.6
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+4.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+4.9
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+4.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+6.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+6.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.7%	2.86	2.88	+6.3
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	0.9%	2.88	2.51	+4.3
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	0.9%	2.88	2.51	+4.3
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	116	448	107	33	5	100%	5.5	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	1.1%	2.88	2.67	+4.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			220	203	1192	4849	1156	324	94	92%	5.4	23.8%	6.7%	17.2%	1.9%	3.01	3.00	+35.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	NYY	16	16	98	414	99	30	7	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	1.7%	3.26	3.28	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	96	405	93	31	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.45	3.58	+2.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	77	327	72	27	8	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.3%	3.73	3.92	+1.4
2030	36	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	54	229	48	20	6	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.06	4.29	+0.7
2031	37	MLB MLE	NYY	5	5	32	137	27	13	4	100%	6.5	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.69	+0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	94	31	9	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.1%	3.52	3.65	+2.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	77	325	72	27	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.5%	3.82	4.01	+1.4
2030	36	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	48	20	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.16	4.39	+0.7
2031	37	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	32	135	27	13	4	100%	6.4	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		263	246	1452	5946	1397	415	122	94%	5.5	23.5%	7.0%	16.5%	2.0%	3.17	3.12	+41.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	819	192	57	17	94%	5.5	23.5%	7.0%	16.5%	2.0%	3.17	3.12	+5.7
Career	—	MLE		282	264	1481	6073	1400	467	124	94%	5.3	23.0%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.29	3.25	+40.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	820	189	63	17	94%	5.3	23.0%	7.7%	15.4%	2.0%	3.29	3.25	+5.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 9 IPFIP 5.05 → 5.55 (+0.50)K% 25.6% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.860	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×0.900	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷0.984	×1.100	5.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 5.05 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 66 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.51 (+0.41)K% 24.4% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.40%	—	×0.880	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.050	10.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.970	×1.100	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMississippi Braves · 11 IPFIP 1.04 → 1.79 (+0.75)K% 39.0% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.02%	—	×0.810	31.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.100	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.897	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 1.04 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMississippi Braves · 87 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.55 (+0.83)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.08%	—	×0.810	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.100	11.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.925	×1.200	2.70%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAGwinnett Braves · 6 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.20 (+0.37)K% 30.0% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.880	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.972	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ARome Braves · 103 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.85 (+1.28)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.35%	—	×0.740	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.180	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.965	×1.300	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Fried (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	1.7%	—	3.86	22.3%	14.2%	228	+0.58	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2024 · 3.41 FIP	33	SP	3.41	28.0%	6.0%	3.5%	.308	3.93	22.4%	13.1%	246	+0.52	3.23	1,056	67
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	40
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	39
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	39
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	38
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	38
Carlos Hernandez L 2019 · 2.83 FIP	32	SP	2.83	17.9%	5.5%	1.0%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	331	38
Mark Hendrickson L 2007 · 3.78 FIP	33	SW	3.78	17.3%	4.7%	2.8%	.318	4.32	14.2%	8.0%	314	+0.54	3.04	1,169	37
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	35
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	34
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	34
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	33
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	33
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	33
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	33	SP	3.87	20.7%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	31
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	28
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	27
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	27
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	24
Pat Misch L 2015 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP-	3.94	11.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	103	23.5%	7.1%	0.77	3.16
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Sparky Lyle ('67-'82, 23 WAR*)	7.0	87	22.1%*	8.2%*	0.81*	3.33*
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	13.3	157	19.8%	6.6%	0.79	3.53