Max Fried — OGILVIE

Max Fried P New York Yankees

Age 32 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 4.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6472vR 80

ERA2.93

FIP2.98

K%24.4%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$87M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5560

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.249

CT+5.0 (23%)

FB+3.4 (40%)

CH+2.7 (12%)

SL+1.4 (12%)

SI (22%)

CU (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$27M	+2.6	$20M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$27M	+1.9	$13M	-$9M
2029	Ext	$27M	+1.1	$7M	-$13M
2030	Ext	$27M	+0.5	$1M	-$16M
2031	Ext	$27M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$138M		$42M	-$60M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$60M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	A MLE	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.2%	3.93	4.85	—
2016	22	A RAW	Rome Braves	21	20	103	425	112	47	10	95%	4.9	26.4%	11.1%	15.3%	2.4%	3.93	3.56	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	2.6%	5.16	4.44	+0.6
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	25	119	526	113	54	11	83%	4.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	2.1%	5.16	3.77	+1.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	1.7%	3.64	3.49	+1.9
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	20	111	474	131	54	7	69%	3.8	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	1.5%	3.64	3.02	+2.6
2019	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.45	+2.9
2019	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	30	166	702	173	44	21	91%	5.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	3.0%	4.02	3.46	+2.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.78	+1.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	11	11	56	224	50	19	2	100%	5.1	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	0.9%	2.25	2.80	+1.5
2021	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+3.7
2021	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	28	28	166	667	158	41	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.2%	3.04	3.11	+3.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.56	+5.6
2022	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	30	30	185	733	170	30	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	4.1%	19.1%	1.6%	2.48	2.59	+5.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.90	+2.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.90	+2.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	90	359	93	22	9	100%	5.0	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	2.5%	2.71	3.07	+2.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	29	174	714	166	57	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	1.8%	3.25	3.15	+3.8
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+5.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.6%	2.86	2.81	+5.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	32	195	801	189	51	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.7%	2.86	2.88	+5.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			218	201	1179	4797	1146	322	94	92%	5.4	23.9%	6.7%	17.2%	2.0%	3.01	3.01	+27.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	19	19	102	396	97	31	5	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.0%	2.82	2.59	+3.0
YTD	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	19	19	102	396	97	31	5	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.0%	2.82	2.59	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	NYY	1	1	3	14	3	0	1	100%	3.0	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	7.1%	6.00	5.21	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	NYY	18	18	99	382	94	31	4	100%	5.5	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.0%	2.73	2.62	+2.9
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	NYY	18	18	99	382	94	31	4	100%	5.5	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.0%	2.73	2.62	+2.9
ROS	32	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	14	59	14	4	1	100%	7.0	24.4%	7.5%	16.8%	1.8%	2.93	2.98	+0.3
ROS	32	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	14	59	14	4	1	100%	7.0	24.4%	7.5%	16.8%	1.9%	2.99	3.04	+0.3
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	116	455	111	35	6	—	—	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	1.3%	2.84	2.64	+3.4
FULL	32	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	113	477	111	35	6	—	—	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	1.3%	2.92	2.77	+3.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	NYY	26	26	157	665	156	53	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.0%	15.4%	1.8%	3.39	3.52	+2.7
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	143	605	136	51	13	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.5%	14.1%	2.1%	3.65	3.82	+1.9
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	128	543	117	49	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.5%	2.5%	3.95	4.16	+1.1
2030	36	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	480	99	46	14	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.53	+0.5
2031	37	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	99	419	81	43	14	100%	5.8	19.4%	10.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.68	4.93	-0.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	NYY	26	26	157	663	155	53	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.0%	15.4%	2.0%	3.46	3.59	+2.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	143	604	136	51	14	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.5%	14.1%	2.3%	3.73	3.90	+1.9
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	128	540	117	49	14	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.5%	2.6%	4.04	4.25	+1.1
2030	36	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	114	481	99	46	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.64	+0.5
2031	37	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	81	43	15	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.3%	9.2%	3.5%	4.80	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		328	311	1835	7567	1749	569	165	95%	5.6	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.36	3.30	+36.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	825	191	62	18	95%	5.6	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.36	3.30	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		280	262	1467	6021	1390	465	124	94%	5.2	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.1%	3.29	3.26	+33.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	821	189	63	17	94%	5.2	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.1%	3.29	3.26	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Fried (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.41	23.8%	6.9%	1.9%	—	3.81	22.6%	14.1%	429	+0.40	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2023 · 3.90 FIP	32	SP	3.90	25.9%	6.9%	3.9%	.311	3.76	24.9%	17.0%	407	-0.14	3.23	1,041	64
Cole Hamels L 2016 · 3.74 FIP	32	SP	3.74	23.6%	9.0%	2.7%	.294	4.12	21.4%	12.9%	480	+0.38	3.21	893	63
David Price L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	32	SP	3.86	24.5%	6.9%	3.5%	.268	3.61	23.8%	16.6%	181	-0.25	2.65	922	61
Jon Lester L 2016 · 3.34 FIP	32	SP	3.34	24.7%	6.5%	2.7%	.253	4.12	21.6%	14.0%	534	+0.78	2.81	1,144	61
Gio Gonzalez L 2018 · 3.94 FIP	32	SP	3.94	19.8%	10.5%	2.2%	.298	4.05	21.8%	11.6%	139	+0.11	2.90	864	59
Francisco Liriano L 2016 · 4.57 FIP	32	SP	4.57	23.0%	11.5%	3.6%	.289	4.61	19.5%	7.6%	301	+0.04	3.14	650	56
Wade Miley L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	19.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.284	3.75	17.9%	10.1%	230	-0.58	3.36	1,167	55
Scott Kazmir L 2016 · 4.11 FIP	32	SP	4.11	22.7%	8.3%	3.4%	.290	6.40	8.7%	-4.3%	12	+2.29	3.84	395	52
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	48
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2019 · 2.82 FIP	32	SP	2.82	22.5%	3.0%	2.3%	.274	3.75	21.2%	15.9%	263	+0.93	2.79	725	47
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	45
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	41
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	41
Yohan Flande L 2017 · 3.18 FIP	31	SP	3.18	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.21	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.03	3.18	335	40
Scott Diamond L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	30	SP	3.46	12.7%	4.8%	1.5%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	316	37
Andrew Albers L 2017 · 2.98 FIP	31	SP-	2.98	20.7%	4.5%	1.9%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	508	37
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	36
Jake Arrieta R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	32	SP	3.97	19.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.283	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.78	2.13	1,046	36
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	36
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	36

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	136	22.2%	8.5%	0.90	3.80
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12