Drew Pomeranz

P Chicago Cubs

Age 38 LHP 6'5" / 246 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	AAAOklahoma City…	8	1	9	6.00	1.77	37.8%	2.7%	—	K 37.8% · BB 2.7% · FIP 1.73
2025	36	MIX2 levels	66	4	59	2.58	2.76	28.9%	7.7%	1.3	K 28.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.01
2026	37	MIX2 levels	33	0	31	5.23	6.00	14.0%	9.1%	-0.5	K 12.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 6.12
2027PROJ	38	MLBCHC	167	0	175	4.48	4.88	18.9%	8.5%	-0.7
2028PROJ	39	MLBCHC	62	0	65	4.90	5.24	17.7%	9.2%	-0.6
2029PROJ	40	MLBCHC	22	0	23	5.35	5.66	16.6%	9.8%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs17

FB Velo16

K%10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Juan Antonio Pena (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.48

FIP4.88

K%18.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1017.6%

p1012.6%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	4	4	18	77	13	5	0	100%	4.6	16.9%	6.5%	10.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	+0.7
2011	22	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	4	4	18	77	13	5	0	100%	4.6	16.9%	6.5%	10.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.50	+0.7
2012	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	22	22	97	434	83	44	14	100%	4.4	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.34	+1.2
2012	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	22	22	97	434	83	44	14	100%	4.4	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.93	4.63	+0.9
2013	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	8	4	22	105	19	18	4	50%	2.7	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	3.4%	6.23	5.60	-0.0
2013	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	8	4	22	105	19	18	4	50%	2.7	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	3.8%	6.23	6.24	-0.2
2014	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	20	10	69	278	64	26	7	50%	3.5	23.0%	9.4%	13.7%	2.8%	2.35	3.86	+1.3
2014	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	20	10	69	278	64	26	7	50%	3.5	23.0%	9.4%	13.7%	2.5%	2.35	3.69	+1.4
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	9	88	363	85	30	8	17%	1.6	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.5%	3.58	3.58	+1.0
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	9	88	363	85	30	8	17%	1.6	23.4%	8.3%	15.2%	2.2%	3.58	3.37	+1.2
2016	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	31	30	171	703	186	62	22	97%	5.5	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	3.2%	3.32	3.74	+3.4
2016	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	31	30	171	703	186	62	22	97%	5.5	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	3.1%	3.32	3.69	+3.5
2017	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	174	740	174	69	19	100%	5.4	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.6%	3.32	3.74	+3.5
2017	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	174	740	174	69	19	100%	5.4	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.6%	3.32	3.71	+3.5
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	17	99	450	82	59	20	53%	3.1	17.9%	13.2%	4.7%	4.2%	5.82	5.58	-0.2
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	17	99	450	82	59	20	53%	3.1	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	4.4%	5.82	5.86	-0.5
2019	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	46	18	104	455	137	44	21	39%	2.3	30.1%	9.7%	20.4%	4.4%	4.85	4.19	+0.4
2019	30	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	46	18	104	455	137	44	21	39%	2.3	30.1%	9.7%	20.4%	4.6%	4.85	4.36	+0.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	20	0	19	73	29	10	1	0%	0.9	39.7%	13.7%	26.0%	1.3%	1.45	2.21	+0.5
2020	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	20	0	19	73	29	10	1	0%	0.9	39.7%	13.7%	26.0%	1.4%	1.45	2.30	+0.5
2021	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	27	0	26	102	30	9	2	0%	1.0	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	1.9%	1.75	2.78	+0.5
2021	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	27	0	26	102	30	9	2	0%	1.0	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	2.0%	1.75	2.83	+0.5
2022	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	2	5	20	6	3	1	40%	0.9	30.0%	15.0%	15.0%	5.0%	7.71	5.21	—
2022	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	2	5	20	6	3	1	40%	0.9	30.0%	15.0%	15.0%	5.0%	7.71	5.24	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	6	30	6	5	1	29%	0.8	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	14.29	5.35	—
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	6	30	6	5	1	29%	0.8	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	14.29	5.92	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	8	1	9	37	14	1	1	12%	1.1	37.8%	2.7%	35.1%	2.7%	6.00	1.73	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	8	1	9	37	14	1	1	12%	1.1	37.8%	2.7%	35.1%	2.7%	6.00	1.73	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	8	1	9	37	14	1	1	12%	1.1	37.8%	2.7%	35.1%	2.7%	6.00	1.77	—
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	4	59	246	71	19	5	6%	0.9	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	2.6%	2.58	3.01	+1.1
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	4	59	246	71	19	5	6%	0.9	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	2.6%	2.58	3.01	+1.1
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	4	59	246	71	19	5	6%	0.9	28.9%	7.7%	21.1%	2.0%	2.58	2.76	+1.3
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	143	20	13	7	0%	0.9	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	5.4%	5.23	6.12	-0.6
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	143	20	13	7	0%	0.9	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	5.4%	5.23	6.12	-0.6
2026	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	31	143	20	13	7	0%	0.9	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	4.9%	5.23	6.00	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			377	144	937	4006	957	386	122	38%	2.5	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.0%	3.87	3.99	+6.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	CHC	167	0	175	739	139	62	26	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.88	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	273	48	25	11	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.2%	8.6%	4.0%	4.98	5.32	-0.6
2029	40	MLB MLE	CHC	22	0	23	98	16	10	4	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.8%	6.7%	4.4%	5.44	5.75	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	CHC	62	0	65	274	49	25	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.2%	8.6%	3.8%	4.90	5.24	-0.6
2029	40	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	16	10	4	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.8%	6.7%	4.2%	5.35	5.66	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		461	144	1025	4376	1021	421	137	31%	2.2	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.1%	3.97	4.06	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		90	28	200	854	199	82	27	31%	2.2	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.1%	3.97	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		415	155	995	4256	1012	416	134	37%	2.4	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	3.1%	3.99	4.05	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	31	200	855	203	84	27	37%	2.4	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	3.1%	3.99	4.05	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 10 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.06 (+0.24)K% 32.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.56%	—	×0.860	28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×0.900	10.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.204	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 9 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.48 (+0.75)K% 37.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.860	32.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×0.900	2.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.32%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 3 IPFIP 7.93 → 7.85 (−0.07)K% 9.5% → 8.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.52%	—	×0.860	8.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.81%	—	×0.900	21.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.052	×1.100	4.98%

Result: FIP 7.93 → 7.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 20 IPFIP 8.43 → 7.85 (−0.58)K% 14.3% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.880	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.48%	—	×1.050	16.25%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷1.342	×1.100	6.83%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 168).

Result: FIP 8.43 → 7.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 5 IPFIP 5.79 → 6.32 (+0.54)K% 18.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.810	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.166	×1.200	4.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 5.79 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Pomeranz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.43	17.4%	8.1%	88	+0.55	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	50
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	40
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	28
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	27
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	27
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	26
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	26
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	26
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	25
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	24
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	24
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	23
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	22
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	21
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	11
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	2
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	1
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	0
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	0
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	86	22.7%	9.7%	1.23	4.05
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Steve Bedrosian ('81-'95, 14 WAR*)	6.0	85	23.9%*	10.2%*	1.26*	3.72*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Kyle Farnsworth ('14)	4.9	62	22.5%	9.6%	1.20	4.26
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Joaquín Benoit ('17)	5.3	71	23.5%	9.7%	1.09	3.83