Jacob Misiorowski P Milwaukee Brewers
Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 201 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 6.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6354vR 45
ERA2.48
FIP2.38
K%37.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%28.4%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 185 IP
K: +30.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+31KBB: +3.3 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+3BBCONTACT: +11.0 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+11CONTACTSTAM: +25.1 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+25STAMTotal WAR: +7.36 (185 IP)+7.4WAR
0.03.06.03.05.25.35.15.04.4+$157M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD6565
K†7080
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p90100.5
Whiff%
p9037.5%
K%
p9039.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.224
SL+1.8 (12%)
CH+0.7 (2%)
FB+0.6 (63%)
CT (12%)
CU (11%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   0.634 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$0.3M+3.0$24M+$23M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+5.2$39M+$38M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+5.3$36M+$36M
2029Arb-1$13M+5.1$33M+$23M
2030Arb-2$22M+5.0$30M+$15M
2031Arb-3$30M+4.4$24M+$6M
Totals $67M $185M +$142M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202220ACarolina Mudcats22214370100%0.821.4%50.0%-28.6%0.0%5.407.62—
202220ACarolina Mudcats22214370100%0.821.4%50.0%-28.6%0.0%5.4012.10—
202321MIX3 levels202071314110422100%3.627.0%15.2%11.8%0.7%3.413.13—
202321MIX3 levels202071314110422100%3.635.0%13.4%21.7%0.6%3.412.15—
202422MIX2 levels33219741712760864%2.925.0%15.7%9.3%1.8%3.333.94—
202422MIX2 levels33219741712760864%2.930.5%14.4%16.1%1.9%3.333.41—
202523MIX2 levels2826129526167621293%4.629.9%12.1%17.8%2.3%3.273.35+3.1
202523MIX2 levels2826129526167621293%4.631.7%11.8%20.0%2.3%3.273.16+3.4
▸ 2026 Season
202624MLBMilwaukee Brewers1818111422167279100%6.239.6%6.4%33.2%2.1%1.621.74+4.8
ROS24MLBMIL121274312116287100%6.237.3%8.9%28.4%2.4%2.482.38+2.1
ROS24MLBMIL121274312116287100%6.237.3%8.9%28.4%2.3%2.462.36+2.2
2026 TOT24MLBMIL——1857342835516——38.6%7.5%31.1%2.2%1.972.00+7.4
2026 FULL24MLBMIL——1857812835516——36.3%7.0%29.3%2.1%1.962.07+7.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBMIL30301757392726218100%5.836.8%8.4%28.4%2.4%2.832.74+5.4
202826MLBMIL29291757392736218100%6.037.0%8.3%28.6%2.4%2.762.72+5.5
202927MLBMIL29291727282696118100%5.937.0%8.4%28.5%2.4%2.762.76+5.3
203028MLBMIL29291727282686218100%5.936.8%8.6%28.3%2.5%2.812.84+5.2
203129MLBMIL27271656952526119100%6.136.2%8.8%27.4%2.7%2.933.00+4.6
203230MLBMIL26261556532326019100%5.935.5%9.1%26.4%2.9%3.103.21+4.0
203331MLBMIL24241446092125819100%6.034.8%9.5%25.3%3.1%3.313.44+3.3
203432MLBMIL22221345641925619100%6.134.0%9.9%24.1%3.4%3.543.70+2.7
203533MLBMIL20201225171715319100%6.133.1%10.3%22.8%3.6%3.803.98+2.0
203634MLBMIL19191124711525118100%5.932.2%10.8%21.4%3.9%4.094.28+1.5
203735MLBMIL17171004231324818100%5.931.3%11.4%19.9%4.3%4.414.62+0.9
203836MLBMIL1515893741134517100%5.930.3%12.0%18.3%4.6%4.764.99+0.2
203937MLBMIL1313773261023916100%5.931.2%11.8%19.4%5.1%4.975.12-0.2
202725MLBMIL28281667012585916100%5.936.8%8.4%28.4%2.3%2.802.71+5.2
202826MLBMIL28281667012595916100%5.937.0%8.3%28.6%2.3%2.732.69+5.3
202927MLBMIL27271646922565816100%6.137.0%8.4%28.5%2.4%2.732.73+5.1
203028MLBMIL27271646922555917100%6.136.8%8.6%28.3%2.5%2.782.81+5.0
203129MLBMIL26261566592395817100%6.036.2%8.8%27.4%2.6%2.902.97+4.4
203230MLBMIL24241476212215717100%6.135.5%9.1%26.4%2.8%3.073.18+3.8
203331MLBMIL23231375782015518100%6.034.8%9.5%25.3%3.0%3.283.41+3.2
203432MLBMIL21211275361825318100%6.034.0%9.9%24.1%3.3%3.503.66+2.6
203533MLBMIL19191164901625017100%6.133.1%10.3%22.8%3.6%3.763.94+2.0
203634MLBMIL17171014261384616100%5.932.2%10.8%21.4%3.8%4.054.24+1.4
203735MLBMIL1414863631144115100%6.131.3%11.4%19.9%4.2%4.364.57+0.5
203836MLBMIL111168287873413100%6.230.3%12.0%18.3%4.5%4.714.94-0.2
203937MLBMIL9953224702611100%5.931.2%11.8%19.4%5.0%4.915.06-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—321320190279802812742234100%5.935.2%9.3%25.9%2.9%3.192.91+55.4
/ 200 IP—34342008392967825100%5.935.2%9.3%25.9%2.9%3.192.91+5.8
Career—1018741116935172113086%4.130.5%12.5%18.1%1.8%2.873.09+11.1
/ 200 IP—49422008252521031586%4.130.5%12.5%18.1%1.8%2.873.09+5.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jacob Misiorowski (OGILVIE) —— 3.77 31.9%12.2%2.6%— 2.74 36.9%28.5%522 -1.03 ———
Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.52 FIP 24 SP 3.52 29.9%10.4%2.9%.267 3.23 29.3%21.4%130 -0.29 1.85 613 72
Chase Burns R 2025 · 3.42 FIP 23 SP 3.42 28.6%9.0%2.9%.264 — ——— — 2.41 188 61
Paul Skenes R 2026 · 2.67 FIP 24 SP 2.67 29.5%5.5%2.5%.276 — ——— — 2.08 456 61
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 3.24 FIP 22 SP 3.24 29.0%9.7%2.5%.295 — ——— — 3.24 136 59
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP 24 SP 3.59 26.4%10.6%2.5%.333 3.20 24.9%17.2%345 -0.39 2.15 702 56
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP 24 SP- 3.96 26.3%9.2%3.5%.344 5.03 18.9%8.4%306 +1.07 3.58 426 56
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP 23 SP 3.69 25.1%7.5%3.2%.256 5.06 20.7%11.0%89 +1.37 3.69 333 56
Tommy Romero R 2026 · 3.08 FIP 24 SP 3.08 28.1%7.6%2.5%.261 5.00 18.3%5.4%245 +1.92 2.76 721 56
Ty Johnson R 2026 · 3.77 FIP 24 SP 3.77 29.0%10.1%3.4%.224 — ——— — 2.40 244 55
Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.56 FIP 24 SP 3.56 25.4%5.2%3.6%.286 3.46 25.0%20.0%585 -0.10 3.22 1,084 55
David Festa R 2026 · 3.70 FIP 24 SP 3.70 29.2%9.5%3.4%.334 3.73 24.9%17.4%85 +0.03 3.55 405 54
Seth Johnson R 2025 · 4.53 FIP 23 SP 4.53 28.7%11.5%4.4%.352 4.25 20.6%7.7%169 -0.28 3.29 330 54
K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 2.65 FIP 24 SP- 2.65 26.8%7.1%1.7%.277 4.65 17.9%6.8%151 +2.00 2.65 253 54
Stephen Strasburg R 2029 · 2.70 FIP 27 SP 2.70 29.6%5.0%2.7%.308 2.81 29.5%22.9%453 +0.11 2.42 811 54
Emmet Sheehan R 2025 · 4.03 FIP 23 SP 4.03 29.5%11.2%3.7%.223 3.49 29.4%22.4%173 -0.54 2.66 364 53
Christian Scott R 2026 · 2.65 FIP 24 SP 2.65 25.6%4.1%2.2%.265 4.34 25.6%17.6%157 +1.69 2.65 302 53
Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.08 FIP 24 SP 3.08 25.2%6.9%2.2%.271 5.11 22.3%15.9%118 +2.03 1.63 606 53
Mason Miller R 2026 · 3.08 FIP 24 SP- 3.08 27.3%11.5%1.5%.265 1.51 44.3%35.3%166 -1.57 0.12 200 52
Jackson Kowar R 2026 · 3.95 FIP 24 SP 3.95 26.5%11.3%3.0%.339 5.04 20.1%6.9%172 +1.09 3.95 489 52
Edward Cabrera R 2026 · 3.96 FIP 24 SP 3.96 26.9%11.2%3.1%.225 3.96 25.9%14.3%385 +0.00 3.47 883 51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1413934.7%9.7%1.193.40
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)715926.8%8.7%1.133.68
Lance Lynn ('24)915423.9%8.1%1.203.86
James Paxton ('24)810625.8%7.7%1.123.89
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)812225.9%6.9%1.304.17