Jacob Misiorowski

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 201 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 5.7 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	33	21	97	3.33	3.41	30.5%	14.4%	—	K 24.9% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.02
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	26	129	3.27	3.16	31.7%	11.8%	3.6	K 29.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.23
2026	24	MLBMIL	30	30	175	1.80	2.01	37.9%	6.6%	7.9
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	27	27	156	2.68	2.58	37.3%	7.9%	5.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBMIL	25	25	148	2.68	2.63	37.4%	7.9%	5.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIL	23	23	137	2.68	2.67	37.4%	8.0%	4.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 15.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.634First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$12M2030Arb-2$19M2031Arb-3$26M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form2.28 ERA (proj 2.68) · K 31.9% (proj 37.3%) · BB 9.6% (proj 7.9%) ▼▼ last 60d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsPaul Skenes (age 22) · Spencer Strider (age 24) · Nick Pivetta (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7062vR 54

ERA2.68

FIP2.58

K%37.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%29.4%

Proj IP156

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$139M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD6565

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.6

Whiff%

p9037.3%

p9037.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.226

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.634 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+5.7	$68M	+$68M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+5.3	$59M	+$58M
2029	Arb-1	$12M	+4.8	$49M	+$40M
2030	Arb-2	$19M	+4.6	$44M	+$30M
2031	Arb-3	$26M	+4.1	$34M	+$17M
Totals		$57M		$255M	+$213M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	2	14	3	7	0	100%	0.8	21.4%	50.0%	-28.6%	0.0%	5.40	7.62	—
2022	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	2	14	3	7	0	100%	0.8	21.4%	50.0%	-28.6%	0.0%	5.40	12.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	71	314	110	42	2	100%	3.6	27.0%	15.2%	11.8%	0.7%	3.41	3.15	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	71	314	110	42	2	100%	3.6	35.0%	13.4%	21.7%	0.6%	3.41	2.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	97	417	127	60	8	64%	2.9	24.9%	15.3%	9.6%	2.0%	3.33	4.02	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	97	417	127	60	8	64%	2.9	24.9%	15.3%	9.6%	2.0%	3.33	4.02	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	97	417	127	60	8	64%	2.9	30.5%	14.4%	16.1%	1.9%	3.33	3.41	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	129	526	167	62	12	93%	4.6	29.6%	11.2%	18.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.23	+3.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	129	526	167	62	12	93%	4.6	29.6%	11.2%	18.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.23	+3.5
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	129	526	167	62	12	93%	4.6	31.7%	11.8%	20.0%	2.3%	3.27	3.16	+3.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	175	665	252	44	14	100%	5.8	37.9%	6.6%	31.3%	2.0%	1.80	1.84	+8.4
2026	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	175	665	252	44	14	100%	5.8	37.9%	6.6%	31.3%	2.0%	1.80	1.84	+8.4
2026	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	175	665	252	44	14	100%	5.8	37.9%	6.6%	31.3%	2.1%	1.80	2.01	+7.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	44	241	938	339	75	22	98%	5.3	36.1%	8.0%	28.1%	2.3%	2.51	2.41	+9.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	27	27	156	659	246	52	15	100%	5.8	37.3%	7.9%	29.4%	2.3%	2.68	2.58	+5.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	156	660	247	52	15	100%	6.0	37.4%	7.9%	29.5%	2.3%	2.62	2.57	+5.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	144	607	227	48	14	100%	6.0	37.4%	8.0%	29.4%	2.3%	2.62	2.61	+5.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	142	600	224	49	15	100%	5.9	37.3%	8.1%	29.2%	2.4%	2.67	2.70	+4.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	575	211	48	15	100%	5.9	36.7%	8.3%	28.4%	2.6%	2.78	2.86	+4.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	542	195	47	15	100%	6.1	36.0%	8.6%	27.4%	2.8%	2.95	3.06	+3.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	503	177	45	15	100%	6.0	35.2%	9.0%	26.3%	3.0%	3.16	3.30	+3.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	107	453	156	43	15	100%	6.0	34.4%	9.4%	25.1%	3.3%	3.39	3.55	+2.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	93	392	132	39	14	100%	6.2	33.6%	9.8%	23.8%	3.5%	3.65	3.83	+1.7
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	75	315	103	33	12	100%	6.2	32.7%	10.3%	22.4%	3.8%	3.94	4.14	+1.1
2037	35	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	54	228	72	25	10	100%	6.0	31.7%	10.9%	20.9%	4.2%	4.26	4.47	+0.6
2038	36	MLB MLE	MIL	6	6	34	144	44	17	7	100%	5.7	30.7%	11.5%	19.2%	4.6%	4.61	4.84	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	148	625	234	49	15	100%	5.9	37.4%	7.9%	29.5%	2.4%	2.68	2.63	+5.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	137	578	216	46	14	100%	6.0	37.4%	8.0%	29.4%	2.5%	2.68	2.67	+4.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	135	570	212	46	15	100%	6.1	37.3%	8.1%	29.2%	2.6%	2.74	2.77	+4.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	200	45	15	100%	5.9	36.7%	8.3%	28.4%	2.7%	2.85	2.93	+4.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	122	515	185	44	15	100%	6.1	36.0%	8.6%	27.4%	2.9%	3.03	3.14	+3.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	113	477	168	43	15	100%	5.9	35.2%	9.0%	26.3%	3.2%	3.24	3.38	+2.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	102	431	148	40	15	100%	6.0	34.4%	9.4%	25.1%	3.4%	3.48	3.64	+2.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	88	372	125	37	14	100%	5.9	33.6%	9.8%	23.8%	3.7%	3.75	3.93	+1.7
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	68	287	94	30	12	100%	6.2	32.7%	10.3%	22.4%	4.0%	4.05	4.25	+1.0
2037	35	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	47	198	63	22	9	100%	5.9	31.7%	10.9%	20.9%	4.4%	4.37	4.58	+0.5
2038	36	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	26	110	34	13	5	100%	6.5	30.7%	11.5%	19.2%	4.8%	4.73	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	230	1356	5646	2019	490	165	100%	5.9	35.8%	8.7%	27.1%	2.9%	3.05	2.78	+45.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	833	298	72	24	100%	5.9	35.8%	8.7%	27.1%	2.9%	3.05	2.78	+6.7
Career	—	MLE		113	99	474	1936	600	222	35	88%	4.2	31.0%	11.5%	19.5%	1.8%	2.77	2.94	+41.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	42	200	816	253	94	15	88%	4.2	31.0%	11.5%	19.5%	1.8%	2.77	2.94	+5.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 63 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.06 (+0.21)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.860	27.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.25%	—	×0.900	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.58%	÷1.111	×1.100	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 80 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.15 (+0.67)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.26%	—	×0.810	24.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.41%	—	×1.100	15.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.198	×1.200	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 18 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.39 (+0.36)K% 31.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.860	27.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.909	×1.100	1.73%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 21 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.05 (+0.87)K% 33.6% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.64%	—	×0.810	27.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.95%	—	×1.100	16.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.055	×1.200	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 24 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.31 (+0.76)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.770	20.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.150	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.033	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 27 IPFIP 0.76 → 2.03 (+1.27)K% 45.5% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.54%	—	×0.740	33.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×1.180	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.072	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 0.76 → 2.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Misiorowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.58	37.3%	7.9%	2.3%	—	2.62	37.4%	29.4%	442	+0.04	—	—	—
Paul Skenes R 2024 · 2.12 FIP	22	SP	2.12	33.7%	6.3%	1.9%	.283	2.73	28.8%	22.5%	362	+0.61	2.12	522	66
Spencer Strider R 2023 · 2.52 FIP	24	SP	2.52	36.8%	7.5%	2.9%	.308	4.23	26.5%	16.5%	178	+1.71	1.65	589	59
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	57
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	491	56
Dylan Cease R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP	3.14	31.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.302	3.09	29.1%	19.6%	550	-0.05	2.48	1,494	56
Lucas Giolito R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	32.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.270	3.64	27.9%	19.8%	413	+0.43	2.84	1,542	56
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	54
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	54
Josh James R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	25	SP	3.09	31.5%	10.5%	2.4%	.279	3.84	33.6%	19.7%	97	+0.75	1.99	571	54
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	52
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	51
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	48
Danny Salazar R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.8%	6.9%	3.0%	.273	3.48	29.9%	19.7%	240	+0.01	3.22	587	48
Stephen Strasburg R 2013 · 3.05 FIP	25	SP	3.05	26.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.256	2.76	29.2%	23.7%	490	-0.29	1.08	1,460	48
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	47
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	47
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	47
Chad Green R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP	3.25	24.9%	6.6%	2.6%	.283	2.32	33.4%	27.2%	240	-0.93	1.77	763	46
Jacob deGrom R 2014 · 2.55 FIP	26	SP	2.55	25.5%	7.3%	1.2%	.295	3.04	26.9%	21.1%	540	+0.49	0.74	1,692	46
Walker Buehler R 2019 · 2.70 FIP	25	SP	2.70	29.2%	5.0%	2.6%	.286	3.21	25.3%	19.0%	309	+0.51	2.67	1,118	46

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.9	113	35.9%	8.6%	1.07	2.97
John Hiller ('65-'80, 25 WAR*)	6.2	96	28.7%*	10.1%*	1.16*	3.19*
Dick Radatz ('62-'69, 14 WAR*)	3.5	99	32.8%*	10.1%*	1.06*	3.49*
Tom Henke ('82-'95, 25 WAR*)	3.9	66	35.9%*	7.7%*	0.93*	2.72*
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Billy Wagner ('10)	4.5	65	33.2%	8.3%	0.82	2.31