Josh James — OGILVIE

Josh James P Memphis Redbirds

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 234 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.46

FIP4.35

K%26.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%15.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

CH+0.6

FB-1.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	18	116	492	89	41	2	75%	4.8	13.4%	9.8%	3.6%	0.5%	2.63	3.50	—
2015	22	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	18	116	492	89	41	2	75%	4.8	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	0.4%	2.63	2.85	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	23	19	110	492	121	40	11	83%	4.8	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	2.2%	4.81	3.91	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	23	19	110	492	121	40	11	83%	4.8	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.2%	4.81	3.29	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	21	11	76	343	72	32	1	52%	3.6	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	0.3%	4.38	3.15	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	21	11	76	343	72	32	1	52%	3.6	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	0.3%	4.38	2.64	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	24	137	562	200	56	12	83%	4.7	31.5%	10.5%	21.0%	2.4%	3.08	3.09	+3.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	24	137	562	200	56	12	83%	4.7	35.6%	10.0%	25.6%	2.1%	3.08	2.55	+4.1
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	65	282	105	37	10	2%	1.2	37.6%	13.2%	24.4%	3.9%	5.01	3.71	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	65	282	105	37	10	2%	1.2	37.2%	13.1%	24.1%	3.5%	5.01	3.58	+0.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	2	17	83	21	17	4	15%	1.3	25.3%	20.5%	4.8%	5.0%	7.27	6.28	-0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	13	2	17	83	21	17	4	15%	1.3	25.3%	20.5%	4.8%	4.8%	7.27	6.62	-0.4
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	116	36	12	1	7%	1.0	28.0%	9.9%	18.1%	0.0%	3.51	1.99	+0.8
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	26	116	36	12	1	7%	1.0	31.0%	10.3%	20.7%	0.9%	3.51	2.20	+0.7
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	28	132	35	17	4	7%	0.9	20.3%	14.2%	6.1%	3.8%	6.51	5.27	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	28	132	35	17	4	7%	0.9	26.5%	12.9%	13.6%	3.0%	6.51	4.29	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	8.1%	26.5%	-18.3%	4.2%	19.96	8.09	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	8.1%	26.5%	-18.3%	4.2%	19.96	8.09	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	9.8%	29.4%	-19.6%	3.9%	19.96	11.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	6	107	461	158	61	18	8%	1.5	34.3%	13.2%	21.0%	3.9%	4.64	4.05	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	STL	12	0	13	55	15	6	2	0%	1.1	26.6%	11.2%	15.4%	3.1%	4.46	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	STL	136	0	143	604	155	70	21	0%	1.1	25.7%	11.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.65	-0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	STL	122	0	128	542	134	66	20	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	3.7%	4.83	4.99	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	STL	8	0	8	34	9	4	1	0%	1.0	25.7%	11.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.65	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	STL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	3.7%	4.83	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	6	116	500	168	66	19	7%	1.4	33.6%	13.1%	20.5%	3.9%	4.64	4.05	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		141	10	200	863	290	114	33	7%	1.4	33.6%	13.1%	20.5%	3.9%	4.64	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		228	79	583	2553	584	286	50	35%	2.6	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	2.0%	4.23	3.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	27	200	876	201	98	17	35%	2.6	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	2.0%	4.23	3.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh James (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	26.6%	11.2%	3.1%	—	4.81	25.2%	13.3%	272	+0.46	—	—	—
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	57
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	56
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	56
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	52
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	49
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	49
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	48
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	48
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	48
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	47
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	46
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	46
John Axford R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	33	SU	3.87	20.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.304	4.05	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.18	3.20	197	46
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.26	18.9%	9.0%	126	-0.31	3.55	429	46
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	46
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	46
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	45
Michael Tonkin R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	23.1%	6.8%	4.0%	.237	3.56	23.5%	15.8%	131	-0.64	2.31	480	45
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	45
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	143	25.7%	11.6%	1.31	4.61
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47