Josh James

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 234 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	28	MIX3 levels	27	2	26	3.51	2.20	31.0%	10.3%	0.7	K 28.0% · BB 9.9% · FIP 1.99
2022	29	MIX2 levels	30	2	28	6.51	4.29	26.5%	12.9%	—	K 20.3% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.27
2024	31	AAASTL	9	0	8	19.96	11.06	9.8%	29.4%	—	K 8.4% · BB 26.5% · FIP 8.06
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBSTL	15	0	16	4.19	4.11	27.4%	9.9%	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSTL	7	0	7	4.34	4.44	26.4%	10.5%	0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.62	4.81	25.4%	11.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020

FB Velo75

K%67

xwOBA vs10

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Paolo Espino (age 34) · Tiago Da Silva (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.19

FIP4.11

K%27.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%17.5%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	18	116	492	89	41	2	75%	4.8	13.4%	9.8%	3.6%	0.5%	2.63	3.50	—
2015	22	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	18	116	492	89	41	2	75%	4.8	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	0.4%	2.63	2.85	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	23	19	110	492	121	40	11	83%	4.8	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	2.2%	4.81	3.91	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	23	19	110	492	121	40	11	83%	4.8	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.2%	4.81	3.29	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	21	11	76	343	72	32	1	52%	3.6	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	0.3%	4.38	3.15	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	21	11	76	343	72	32	1	52%	3.6	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	0.3%	4.38	2.64	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	24	137	562	200	56	12	83%	4.7	31.5%	10.5%	21.0%	2.4%	3.08	3.09	+3.9
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	24	137	562	200	56	12	83%	4.7	35.6%	10.0%	25.6%	2.1%	3.08	2.55	+5.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	65	282	105	37	10	2%	1.2	37.6%	13.2%	24.4%	3.9%	5.01	3.71	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	65	282	105	37	10	2%	1.2	37.2%	13.1%	24.1%	3.5%	5.01	3.58	+0.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	2	17	83	21	17	4	15%	1.3	25.3%	20.5%	4.8%	5.0%	7.27	6.28	-0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	13	2	17	83	21	17	4	15%	1.3	25.3%	20.5%	4.8%	4.8%	7.27	6.62	-0.4
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	116	36	12	1	7%	1.0	28.0%	9.9%	18.1%	0.0%	3.51	1.99	+0.8
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	26	116	36	12	1	7%	1.0	31.0%	10.3%	20.7%	0.9%	3.51	2.20	+0.7
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	28	132	35	17	4	7%	0.9	20.3%	14.2%	6.1%	3.8%	6.51	5.27	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	28	132	35	17	4	7%	0.9	26.5%	12.9%	13.6%	3.0%	6.51	4.29	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	8.4%	26.5%	-18.0%	4.2%	19.96	8.06	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	8.4%	26.5%	-18.0%	4.2%	19.96	8.06	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	9	0	8	51	5	15	2	0%	0.9	9.8%	29.4%	-19.6%	3.9%	19.96	11.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	6	107	461	158	61	18	8%	1.5	34.3%	13.2%	21.0%	3.9%	4.64	4.05	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	STL	15	0	16	68	19	7	2	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.9%	17.5%	3.1%	4.19	4.11	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	STL	115	0	121	510	135	53	17	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.5%	16.0%	3.4%	4.34	4.44	+0.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	STL	90	0	94	398	101	44	15	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	3.8%	4.62	4.81	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	STL	7	0	7	30	8	3	1	0%	1.0	26.4%	10.5%	16.0%	3.4%	4.34	4.44	+0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	3.8%	4.62	4.81	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	6	113	489	165	64	19	8%	1.4	33.8%	13.1%	20.8%	3.9%	4.62	4.03	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		140	11	200	863	291	113	34	8%	1.4	33.8%	13.1%	20.8%	3.9%	4.62	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		228	79	583	2553	585	286	50	35%	2.6	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	2.0%	4.23	3.67	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	27	200	876	201	98	17	35%	2.6	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	2.0%	4.23	3.67	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 8 IPFIP 8.15 → 8.06 (−0.09)K% 9.8% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.80%	—	×0.860	8.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	29.41%	—	×0.900	26.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.020	×1.100	4.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 8.15 → 8.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 26 IPFIP 4.61 → 5.27 (+0.67)K% 23.0% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.880	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.49%	—	×1.050	14.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷0.917	×1.100	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.61 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 19 IPFIP 1.61 → 1.99 (+0.38)K% 31.8% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.76%	—	×0.880	27.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.050	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.61 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 93 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.20 (+0.60)K% 35.2% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.19%	—	×0.880	30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.050	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.951	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 22 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.47 (+0.87)K% 40.9% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.86%	—	×0.810	33.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.100	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.059	×1.200	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 76 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.15 (+0.48)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.99%	—	×0.810	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.100	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.29%	÷1.035	×1.200	0.34%

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 110 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.91 (+0.63)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.59%	—	×0.770	18.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.150	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷1.252	×1.250	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 116 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.50 (+0.65)K% 18.1% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.09%	—	×0.740	13.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.41%	÷1.032	×1.300	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh James (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	27.4%	9.9%	3.1%	—	4.60	26.0%	15.3%	215	+0.49	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	54
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	49
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	47
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	46
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	45
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	44
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	43
Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	37.8%	11.5%	2.9%	.328	3.39	32.1%	19.6%	103	+0.45	2.50	371	42
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	42
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	42
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	41
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	41
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	41
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	41
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	40
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	40
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	40
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	40
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	39
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	39

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	96	28.3%	11.0%	1.35	4.41
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Ken Howell ('84-'90, 4 WAR*)	3.1	102	27.3%*	10.5%*	1.00*	4.67*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*