Walker Buehler
P
San Diego Padres
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.34
FIP4.52
K%19.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p4120.9%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SL+2.4 (18%)
SI (17%)
CU (10%)
FB (38%)
CT (24%)
CH-1.8 (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.40 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.50 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 36 | 19 | 98 | 402 | 137 | 38 | 8 | 53% | 2.7 | 28.6% | 9.4% | 19.2% | 1.4% | 3.77 | 2.63 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 36 | 19 | 98 | 402 | 137 | 38 | 8 | 53% | 2.7 | 34.1% | 9.5% | 24.6% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 2.53 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 27 | 153 | 607 | 172 | 41 | 12 | 96% | 5.5 | 27.7% | 6.8% | 21.0% | 2.1% | 2.58 | 2.78 | +4.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 27 | 153 | 607 | 172 | 41 | 12 | 96% | 5.5 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 21.6% | 2.0% | 2.58 | 2.68 | +4.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 182 | 737 | 215 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 24.2% | 2.9% | 3.26 | 2.85 | +5.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 182 | 737 | 215 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 24.2% | 2.7% | 3.26 | 2.78 | +5.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 8 | 37 | 147 | 42 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.1% | 5.0% | 3.44 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 8 | 37 | 147 | 42 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.1% | 4.8% | 3.44 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 33 | 208 | 815 | 212 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.0% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 2.5% | 2.47 | 3.03 | +5.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 33 | 208 | 815 | 212 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.0% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 2.47 | 2.97 | +5.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 503 | 99 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 4.6% | 5.25 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 503 | 99 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 5.25 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 129 | 583 | 97 | 64 | 23 | 93% | 4.8 | 16.3% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 129 | 583 | 97 | 64 | 23 | 93% | 4.8 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.88 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 19 | 19 | 89 | 388 | 81 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 4.11 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 251 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 49 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 148 | 639 | 130 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 4.28 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 148 | 626 | 130 | 56 | 20 | — | — | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.27 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 67 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 77 | 327 | 64 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 55 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 5.41 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 66 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 64 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 55 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 227 | 216 | 1220 | 5085 | 1162 | 398 | 165 | 95% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +20.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 190 | 65 | 27 | 95% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 222 | 200 | 1078 | 4480 | 1091 | 339 | 132 | 90% | 4.9 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.62 | +22.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 37 | 200 | 831 | 203 | 63 | 25 | 90% | 4.9 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walker Buehler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 17.4% | 10.1% | 3.8% | — | 5.33 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 232 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 64 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 63 |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 62 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 61 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.23 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .301 | 5.92 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 325 | 60 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.60 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% | .253 | 4.27 | 22.7% | 15.9% | 197 | -1.33 | 2.87 | 864 | 59 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | .313 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 424 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 869 | 59 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 59 |
| Cory Riordan R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 59 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 58 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.90 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% | .290 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 416 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 918 | 58 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 57 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 57 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.50 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.20 | 22.8% | 16.0% | 394 | -1.30 | 2.78 | 844 | 57 |
| Cody Mincey R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 57 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 57 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 57 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 57 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.70 | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.83 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 174 | +0.13 | 4.02 | 748 | 57 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.59 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.73 | 3.18 | 450 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 81 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 1.53 | 5.18 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |