Walker Buehler
P
San Diego Padres
+0.0
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.16
FIP5.21
xFIP3.67
SIERA3.99
K%17.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%7.7%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+2.4 (17%)
SI (14%)
CU (16%)
FB (32%)
CT (25%)
CH-1.8 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36 | 19 | 98 | 402 | 137 | 38 | 8 | 28.6% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 2.78 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 27 | 153 | 607 | 172 | 41 | 12 | 27.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 2.58 | 2.66 | +4.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 182 | 737 | 215 | 37 | 20 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 2.65 | +5.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 8 | 37 | 147 | 42 | 11 | 7 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.44 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 33 | 208 | 815 | 212 | 50 | 19 | 26.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 2.47 | 2.74 | +6.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 17 | 8 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.65 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 25 | 110 | 503 | 99 | 45 | 20 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 27 | 25 | 129 | 583 | 97 | 64 | 23 | 16.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 4 | 4 | 18 | 73 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 4.58 | 2.81 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 57 | 28 | 9 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 86 | 361 | 75 | 34 | 10 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.11 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 63 | 27 | 10 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 185 | 1006 | 4165 | 1028 | 312 | 109 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.40 | +21.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 37 | 200 | 828 | 204 | 62 | 22 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.40 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walker Buehler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 175 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 67 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.56 | 4.16 | 325 | 67 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 66 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 66 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .353 | 3.35 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.54 | 3.27 | 283 | 66 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 65 |
| David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 65 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 63 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 63 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 63 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.54 | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .328 | 5.54 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 57 | +1.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 62 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 62 |
| Jerome Williams R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 61 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 60 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.35 | 3.75 | 521 | 60 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.83 | 10.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .342 | 5.70 | 14.5% | 3.9% | 120 | +0.87 | 3.70 | 404 | 60 |
| Cody Mincey R 2024 · 5.59 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.59 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 60 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.09 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .268 | 5.25 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.16 | 3.94 | 567 | 59 |
| Hector Galvan R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.74 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.4% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 406 | 59 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 283 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.