Walker Buehler

P San Diego Padres

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	25	25	110	5.25	4.90	19.7%	8.9%	0.6	K 19.1% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.83
2025	31	MIX2 levels	27	25	129	4.88	5.40	16.6%	11.0%	-0.0	K 16.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.09
2026	32	MLBSD	32	32	154	4.63	4.33	20.1%	8.4%	1.9
2027PROJ	33	MLBSD	14	14	87	4.84	4.89	19.0%	9.1%	0.5
2028PROJ	34	MLBSD	10	10	60	5.10	5.24	18.1%	9.6%	0.1
2029PROJ	35	MLBSD	6	6	37	5.40	5.59	17.1%	10.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs44

FB Velo43

K%36

Form4.61 ERA (proj 4.84) · K 20.4% (proj 19.0%) · BB 7.1% (proj 9.1%) ▲ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsMiguel González (age 33) · Masato Yoshii (age 35) · Merrill Kelly (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.84

FIP4.89

K%19.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	5	18	6	3	0	33%	1.7	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	5	18	6	3	0	33%	1.7	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	19	98	402	137	38	8	53%	2.7	28.6%	9.4%	19.2%	1.6%	3.77	2.76	+3.2
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	36	19	98	402	137	38	8	53%	2.7	34.1%	9.5%	24.6%	2.0%	3.77	2.53	+3.5
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	153	607	172	41	12	96%	5.5	27.7%	6.8%	21.0%	1.9%	2.58	2.67	+5.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	153	607	172	41	12	96%	5.5	28.3%	6.8%	21.6%	2.0%	2.58	2.68	+5.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	182	737	215	37	20	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.0%	24.2%	2.6%	3.26	2.70	+6.3
2019	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	182	737	215	37	20	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.0%	24.2%	2.7%	3.26	2.78	+6.1
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	8	8	37	147	42	11	7	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.5%	21.1%	4.6%	3.44	4.14	+0.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	8	8	37	147	42	11	7	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.5%	21.1%	4.8%	3.44	4.19	+0.5
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	33	33	208	815	212	50	19	100%	6.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.2%	2.47	2.91	+6.6
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	33	33	208	815	212	50	19	100%	6.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.3%	2.47	2.97	+6.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	12	65	274	58	17	8	100%	5.4	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.64	+1.4
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	12	65	274	58	17	8	100%	5.4	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.02	3.70	+1.3
2023	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	4.1%	5.25	4.83	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	4.1%	5.25	4.83	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	19.7%	8.9%	10.7%	4.0%	5.25	4.90	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	3.6%	4.88	5.09	+0.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	3.6%	4.88	5.09	+0.5
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.6%	11.0%	5.7%	3.9%	4.88	5.40	-0.0
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	154	651	131	55	22	100%	4.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.28	+2.0
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	32	154	651	131	55	22	100%	4.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.28	+2.0
2026	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	32	32	154	651	131	55	22	100%	4.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.33	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			189	178	993	4118	977	302	128	94%	5.3	23.7%	7.3%	16.4%	3.1%	3.69	3.72	+20.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SD	14	14	87	367	70	34	12	100%	6.2	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	3.4%	4.84	4.89	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	60	252	46	24	9	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	3.7%	5.05	5.19	+0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	SD	6	6	37	156	27	16	6	100%	6.1	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	4.0%	5.34	5.53	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	60	253	46	24	10	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.24	+0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	37	156	27	16	6	100%	6.2	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	4.1%	5.40	5.59	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	194	1090	4526	1049	342	144	95%	5.3	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.2%	3.82	3.85	+20.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	830	192	63	26	95%	5.3	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.2%	3.82	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		235	213	1142	4743	1141	358	133	91%	4.9	24.0%	7.6%	16.5%	2.8%	3.66	3.57	+20.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	830	200	63	23	91%	4.9	24.0%	7.6%	16.5%	2.8%	3.66	3.57	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 32 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.43 (+0.48)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.49%	—	×0.860	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×0.900	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 13 IPFIP 1.54 → 1.88 (+0.35)K% 29.6% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.880	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.050	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.020	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.54 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATulsa Drillers · 49 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.23 (+0.52)K% 32.8% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.82%	—	×0.810	26.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.295	×1.200	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 23 IPFIP 2.17 → 2.65 (+0.48)K% 34.0% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.880	29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.050	11.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.989	×1.100	1.11%

Result: FIP 2.17 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 16 IPFIP 0.49 → 1.47 (+0.98)K% 42.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.770	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.150	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.085	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 0.49 → 1.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walker Buehler (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.32	17.7%	7.9%	97	+0.43	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	905	65
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	64
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	62
Jose Contreras R 2005 · 4.13 FIP	33	SP	4.13	18.0%	8.5%	2.7%	.254	4.04	14.4%	7.8%	506	-0.09	2.43	1,279	55
Alfredo Simon R 2014 · 3.91 FIP	33	SP	3.91	15.5%	6.0%	2.5%	.256	4.88	13.7%	5.1%	261	+0.97	2.83	784	54
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	53
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	52
Steve Parris R 2001 · 5.31 FIP	33	SP	5.31	10.4%	7.9%	3.8%	.294	5.65	11.3%	3.5%	119	+0.34	3.60	753	52
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	51
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	51
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	51
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	50
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	50
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	49
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	49
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	47
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	47
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	47
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	45
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	107	22.9%	7.8%	1.23	3.89
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*