Walker Buehler — OGILVIE

Walker Buehler P San Diego Padres

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.38

FIP4.52

K%19.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p3920.6%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

SL+2.4 (17%)

SI (20%)

CU (8%)

FB (40%)

CT (25%)

CH-1.8 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	5	18	6	3	0	33%	1.7	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	5	18	6	3	0	33%	1.7	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	19	98	402	137	38	8	53%	2.7	28.6%	9.4%	19.2%	1.6%	3.77	2.76	+2.6
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	36	19	98	402	137	38	8	53%	2.7	34.1%	9.5%	24.6%	2.0%	3.77	2.53	+2.9
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	153	607	172	41	12	96%	5.5	27.7%	6.8%	21.0%	1.9%	2.58	2.67	+4.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	153	607	172	41	12	96%	5.5	28.3%	6.8%	21.6%	2.0%	2.58	2.68	+4.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	182	737	215	37	20	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.0%	24.2%	2.6%	3.26	2.70	+5.1
2019	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	182	737	215	37	20	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.0%	24.2%	2.7%	3.26	2.78	+4.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	8	8	37	147	42	11	7	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.5%	21.1%	4.6%	3.44	4.14	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	8	8	37	147	42	11	7	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.5%	21.1%	4.8%	3.44	4.19	+0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	33	33	208	815	212	50	19	100%	6.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.2%	2.47	2.91	+5.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	33	33	208	815	212	50	19	100%	6.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.3%	2.47	2.97	+5.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	12	65	274	58	17	8	100%	5.4	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.64	+1.0
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	12	65	274	58	17	8	100%	5.4	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.02	3.70	+0.9
2023	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	4.1%	5.25	4.85	+0.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	4.1%	5.25	4.85	+0.1
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	110	503	99	45	20	100%	4.4	19.7%	8.9%	10.7%	4.0%	5.25	4.90	+0.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	3.6%	4.88	5.09	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.3%	10.8%	5.5%	3.6%	4.88	5.09	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	129	583	97	64	23	93%	4.8	16.6%	11.0%	5.7%	3.9%	4.88	5.40	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			186	175	978	4055	967	298	125	94%	5.3	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	3.1%	3.67	3.70	+14.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	29	139	588	121	51	19	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.19	+1.2
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	29	139	588	121	51	19	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.19	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	SD	29	29	139	588	121	51	19	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.23	+1.1
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	SD	29	29	139	588	121	51	19	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.23	+1.1
ROS	32	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.6	19.7%	9.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.38	4.52	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	19.7%	9.2%	10.6%	3.6%	4.42	4.56	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	152	643	132	56	21	—	—	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.3%	4.59	4.22	+1.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	152	641	132	56	21	—	—	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.3%	4.59	4.27	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	85	359	67	35	13	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	4.98	5.14	-0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	77	327	64	30	13	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	4.0%	5.10	5.18	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	85	359	67	35	14	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	3.8%	5.03	5.19	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	64	30	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	4.1%	5.15	5.23	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		216	205	1154	4797	1109	368	154	95%	5.3	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.2%	3.88	3.88	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	831	192	64	27	95%	5.3	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.2%	3.88	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		232	210	1127	4680	1129	354	130	91%	4.9	24.1%	7.6%	16.6%	2.8%	3.64	3.55	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	830	200	63	23	91%	4.9	24.1%	7.6%	16.6%	2.8%	3.64	3.55	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walker Buehler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	17.3%	10.0%	3.6%	—	5.16	19.2%	9.7%	162	-0.10	—	—	—
Aníbal Sánchez R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	32	SP-	4.95	20.2%	7.8%	4.7%	.313	4.15	21.5%	14.8%	424	-0.80	3.49	869	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	64
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	64
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	32	SP	4.10	19.6%	11.1%	2.3%	.315	4.95	21.5%	12.5%	143	+0.85	3.63	469	63
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	62
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	62
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	61
Ian Kennedy R 2017 · 5.63 FIP	32	SP	5.63	20.0%	9.0%	5.6%	.253	4.30	22.7%	15.9%	197	-1.33	2.88	864	61
Alex Cobb R 2020 · 4.44 FIP	32	SP	4.44	16.8%	8.0%	3.2%	.272	3.19	22.8%	16.0%	394	-1.25	2.74	844	60
Wily Peralta R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	32	SP	4.64	15.9%	9.6%	3.0%	.257	4.70	18.0%	6.8%	174	+0.06	3.98	748	60
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	325	60
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	60
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	3.86	918	60
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	59
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	59
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	59
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	59
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	59
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	58
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	85	18.5%	9.7%	1.45	5.07
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21