Spencer Strider — OGILVIE

Spencer Strider P Atlanta Braves

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.93

FIP3.90

K%28.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%18.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p8127.9%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

CU (9%)

CH-3.3 (5%)

FB-3.3 (51%)

SL-3.7 (35%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.017 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	—	—	—
2027	Ext	$12M	+0.6	$2M	-$9M
2028	Ext	$12M	+0.3	$1M	-$9M
2029	Ext	$12M	—	—	—
Totals		$39M		$3M	-$28M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$28M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	21	96	398	153	41	8	88%	4.0	30.7%	11.6%	19.1%	2.5%	3.64	3.37	+1.8
2021	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	24	21	96	398	153	41	8	88%	4.0	38.4%	10.3%	28.1%	2.0%	3.64	2.28	+3.2
2022	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	20	132	528	202	44	7	65%	4.2	38.3%	8.3%	29.9%	1.3%	2.67	1.65	+5.6
2022	23	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	20	132	528	202	44	7	65%	4.2	38.3%	8.3%	29.9%	1.3%	2.67	1.73	+5.4
2023	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	32	32	187	763	281	57	22	100%	5.8	36.8%	7.5%	29.4%	2.9%	3.86	2.52	+5.7
2023	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	32	32	187	763	281	57	22	100%	5.8	36.8%	7.5%	29.4%	2.9%	3.86	2.52	+5.7
2023	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	32	32	187	763	281	57	22	100%	5.8	36.8%	7.5%	29.4%	2.9%	3.86	2.54	+5.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.81	+0.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.81	+0.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.99	-0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	3.4%	4.14	3.96	+1.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	3.4%	4.14	3.96	+1.6
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.8%	9.5%	17.3%	3.4%	4.14	3.91	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	85	494	2046	672	178	61	87%	5.0	32.8%	8.7%	24.1%	3.0%	3.86	3.07	+11.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	11	11	52	213	64	25	9	100%	4.7	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	4.35	5.28	-0.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	11	11	52	213	64	25	9	100%	4.7	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	4.35	5.28	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	ATL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.3	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	ATL	2	2	9	35	15	3	0	100%	4.7	42.9%	8.6%	34.3%	0.0%	1.93	0.57	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	ATL	8	8	39	165	46	20	9	100%	4.9	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	5.31	5.28	-0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	ATL	8	8	39	165	46	20	9	100%	4.9	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	5.31	5.28	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	4	18	5	2	1	100%	4.3	28.2%	10.0%	18.2%	3.5%	3.93	3.90	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	ATL	1	1	4	17	5	2	1	100%	4.0	28.2%	10.0%	18.2%	3.5%	3.93	3.90	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	56	231	69	27	10	—	—	29.9%	11.6%	18.3%	4.2%	4.32	5.17	-0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	43	183	69	27	10	—	—	37.8%	14.7%	23.1%	5.3%	5.59	4.66	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	156	660	186	67	26	100%	6.0	28.2%	10.2%	18.0%	3.9%	4.54	4.56	+0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	ATL	25	25	149	630	174	66	26	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.4%	17.2%	4.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	140	592	159	63	25	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.7%	16.2%	4.3%	4.81	4.92	-0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	131	552	144	61	25	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	4.5%	5.02	5.16	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	156	659	186	67	26	100%	6.0	28.2%	10.2%	18.0%	3.9%	4.54	4.56	+0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	ATL	25	25	149	629	174	66	26	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.4%	17.2%	4.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	140	591	159	63	25	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.7%	16.2%	4.3%	4.81	4.92	-0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	131	553	145	61	25	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	4.5%	5.02	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	182	1075	4497	1340	437	164	93%	5.5	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	3.6%	4.33	3.81	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	837	249	81	31	93%	5.5	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	3.6%	4.33	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		126	112	614	2534	830	234	73	89%	4.9	32.8%	9.2%	23.5%	2.9%	3.72	3.08	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	825	270	76	24	89%	4.9	32.8%	9.2%	23.5%	2.9%	3.72	3.08	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Strider (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	28.5%	9.1%	3.3%	—	4.73	27.6%	17.1%	446	+0.69	—	—	—
Danny Salazar R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	33.0%	10.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	425	69
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	64
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	63
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	62
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	62
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,198	61
Vince Velasquez R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	25.2%	7.9%	4.7%	.295	4.64	24.2%	14.3%	204	+0.08	3.26	959	61
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	60
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	60
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	60
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.9%	344	+0.69	3.60	801	59
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	59
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	59
Yu Darvish R 2016 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.85	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.97	1,253	59
Tanner Houck R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.291	3.57	19.6%	12.7%	233	-0.55	2.27	733	58
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	58
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	58
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.1%	10.6%	183	+1.12	3.40	349	58
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	57
Frankie Montas R 2020 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	25.3%	9.7%	4.6%	.326	3.39	25.2%	18.3%	331	-1.35	2.82	1,009	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	144	27.5%	10.3%	1.56	4.61
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47