Spencer Strider
P
Rome Emperors
+2.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 2.3 · 2026
ERA4.12
FIP4.13
xFIP4.24
SIERA4.15
K%27.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%18.0%
IP159
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†6565
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p8430.6%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
CU (9%)
CH-3.3 (5%)
FB-3.3 (51%)
SL-3.7 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 24 | 21 | 96 | 398 | 153 | 41 | 8 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.49 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 20 | 132 | 528 | 202 | 44 | 7 | 38.3% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 2.67 | 1.57 | +5.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 32 | 187 | 763 | 281 | 57 | 22 | 36.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 2.45 | +6.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 26 | 26 | 139 | 590 | 158 | 56 | 20 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.14 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 623 | 183 | 57 | 20 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.03 | 3.95 | +2.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 151 | 636 | 186 | 59 | 20 | 29.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 3.86 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 137 | 579 | 170 | 53 | 19 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 3.98 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 152 | 49 | 18 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 135 | 45 | 16 | 28.4% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 118 | 41 | 15 | 27.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 103 | 37 | 14 | 27.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 90 | 33 | 12 | 26.5% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.41 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 83 | 28 | 11 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 71 | 25 | 10 | 27.1% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 60 | 22 | 9 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 25.5% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 102 | 566 | 2334 | 775 | 210 | 60 | 33.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 2.85 | +15.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 825 | 274 | 74 | 21 | 33.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 2.85 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Strider (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.95 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.05 | 28.9% | 19.6% | 374 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.38 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.38 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | .274 | 4.02 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 139 | +0.64 | 3.38 | 305 | 58 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.91 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.05 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.14 | 3.91 | 287 | 57 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.11 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .259 | 2.78 | 32.4% | 24.1% | 298 | -0.33 | 1.69 | 545 | 56 |
| Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.35 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 254 | 55 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.94 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .339 | 3.53 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.41 | 2.40 | 643 | 54 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.18 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .293 | 4.92 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.74 | 2.91 | 864 | 54 |
| Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.57 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .308 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 15.5% | 315 | +0.21 | 2.92 | 1,345 | 54 |
| Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.87 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 424 | 54 |
| Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.31 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -1.02 | 2.25 | 426 | 52 |
| Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 27.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.80 | 27.5% | 19.6% | 469 | +0.19 | 2.80 | 1,018 | 52 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 3.36 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.94 | 533 | 52 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 2.76 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.76 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.95 | 23.3% | 15.3% | 145 | +2.19 | 2.76 | 345 | 52 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.30 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .264 | 5.19 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 145 | +0.89 | 3.69 | 509 | 52 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.13 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.6% | .246 | 5.06 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 182 | +0.93 | 3.35 | 768 | 50 |
| Shane Smith R 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 292 | 50 |
| Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.14 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .334 | 4.08 | 22.9% | 18.2% | 242 | +0.94 | 2.00 | 786 | 50 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 49 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.21 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.76 | 2.39 | 556 | 49 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.21 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 2.3% | .260 | 3.08 | 23.8% | 17.7% | 223 | -0.13 | 1.21 | 538 | 49 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.72 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .249 | 4.97 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 20 | +1.25 | 3.54 | 761 | 49 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.