Spencer Strider
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.8 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10595vR 86
ERA4.13
FIP4.10
K%28.3%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%18.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p8127.9%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
CU (9%)
CH-3.3 (5%)
FB-3.3 (51%)
SL-3.7 (35%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 24 | 21 | 96 | 398 | 153 | 41 | 8 | 88% | 4.0 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 19.1% | 3.0% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 24 | 21 | 96 | 398 | 153 | 41 | 8 | 88% | 4.0 | 38.4% | 10.3% | 28.1% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 2.28 | +3.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 20 | 132 | 528 | 202 | 44 | 7 | 65% | 4.2 | 38.3% | 8.3% | 29.9% | 1.3% | 2.67 | 1.65 | +5.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 20 | 132 | 528 | 202 | 44 | 7 | 65% | 4.2 | 38.3% | 8.3% | 29.9% | 1.3% | 2.67 | 1.73 | +5.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 32 | 187 | 763 | 281 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 36.8% | 7.5% | 29.4% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 2.52 | +6.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 32 | 187 | 763 | 281 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 36.8% | 7.5% | 29.4% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 2.54 | +6.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 7.00 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 7.00 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 590 | 158 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 4.14 | 3.95 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 590 | 158 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.8% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 3.4% | 4.14 | 3.91 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 11 | 11 | 52 | 213 | 64 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.9% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 5.5% | 4.35 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 77 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.3% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 78 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.3% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 116 | 487 | 141 | 53 | 20 | — | — | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 4.0% | 4.23 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 104 | 438 | 141 | 53 | 20 | — | — | 32.3% | 12.0% | 20.3% | 4.5% | 4.75 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 660 | 186 | 68 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.2% | 10.2% | 18.0% | 3.9% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 149 | 630 | 174 | 66 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 592 | 160 | 64 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 186 | 68 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.2% | 10.2% | 18.0% | 3.9% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 174 | 66 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 159 | 64 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 173 | 1004 | 4201 | 1269 | 403 | 149 | 93% | 5.4 | 30.2% | 9.6% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +19.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 253 | 80 | 30 | 93% | 5.4 | 30.2% | 9.6% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 112 | 614 | 2534 | 831 | 234 | 75 | 89% | 4.9 | 32.8% | 9.2% | 23.6% | 2.9% | 3.72 | 3.12 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 825 | 271 | 76 | 24 | 89% | 4.9 | 32.8% | 9.2% | 23.6% | 2.9% | 3.72 | 3.12 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Strider (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 28.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.73 | 27.6% | 17.1% | 446 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 60 |
| Yu Darvish R 2028 · 2.90 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.90 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.86 | 29.1% | 21.2% | 405 | +0.96 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 59 |
| Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 58 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 57 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 55 |
| Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.91 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 424 | 55 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 55 |
| Danny Salazar R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.34 | 33.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 425 | 54 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 54 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.54 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% | .264 | 5.42 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 145 | +0.88 | 3.67 | 509 | 54 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 54 |
| Landen Roupp R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.19 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 414 | 54 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 54 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.06 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .246 | 5.00 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 182 | +0.94 | 3.39 | 768 | 53 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 230 | 53 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 53 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.23 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .259 | 2.94 | 32.4% | 24.1% | 298 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 53 |
| Cade Cavalli R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.90 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 433 | 53 |
| James Kaprielian R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.24 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .270 | 5.06 | 17.3% | 6.1% | 244 | +0.82 | 3.03 | 446 | 52 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 138 | 27.8% | 10.2% | 1.53 | 4.55 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |