Spencer Strider

P Atlanta Braves

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MLBATL	2	2	9	7.00	4.99	28.6%	11.9%	0.0
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	26	139	4.14	3.91	26.8%	9.5%	2.5	K 26.1% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.94
2026	27	MIX3 levels	11	11	52	4.35	4.34	30.0%	11.7%	0.6	K 27.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	28	MLBATL	5	5	28	4.60	4.61	26.8%	10.3%	0.3
2028PROJ	29	MLBATL	11	11	68	4.70	4.77	26.2%	10.6%	0.5
2029PROJ	30	MLBATL	11	11	67	4.87	4.98	25.6%	10.9%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%81

xwOBA vs73

FB Velo58

CompsAriel Peña (age 28) · Stan Spencer (age 30) · Austin Bergner (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.60

FIP4.61

K%26.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p8127.9%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	21	96	398	153	41	8	88%	4.0	30.7%	11.6%	19.1%	2.5%	3.64	3.37	+2.4
2021	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	24	21	96	398	153	41	8	88%	4.0	38.4%	10.3%	28.1%	2.0%	3.64	2.28	+3.8
2022	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	20	132	528	202	44	7	65%	4.2	38.3%	8.3%	29.9%	1.3%	2.67	1.65	+6.4
2022	23	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	20	132	528	202	44	7	65%	4.2	38.3%	8.3%	29.9%	1.3%	2.67	1.73	+6.3
2023	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	32	32	187	763	281	57	22	100%	5.8	36.8%	7.5%	29.4%	2.9%	3.86	2.52	+6.9
2023	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	32	32	187	763	281	57	22	100%	5.8	36.8%	7.5%	29.4%	2.9%	3.86	2.54	+6.9
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.81	+0.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.81	+0.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	2	2	9	42	12	5	2	100%	4.5	28.6%	11.9%	16.7%	4.8%	7.00	4.99	+0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	3.4%	4.14	3.94	+2.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	3.4%	4.14	3.94	+2.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	590	158	56	20	100%	5.3	26.8%	9.5%	17.3%	3.4%	4.14	3.91	+2.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	52	213	64	25	9	100%	4.7	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	4.35	5.28	+0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	52	213	64	25	9	100%	4.7	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	5.5%	4.35	5.28	+0.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	52	213	64	25	9	100%	4.7	30.0%	11.7%	18.3%	4.2%	4.35	4.34	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	85	494	2046	672	178	61	87%	5.0	32.8%	8.7%	24.1%	3.0%	3.86	3.07	+14.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	ATL	5	5	28	118	32	12	4	100%	5.6	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	3.8%	4.60	4.61	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	68	288	75	30	11	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.6%	15.7%	4.0%	4.70	4.77	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	67	282	72	31	12	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.9%	14.7%	4.2%	4.87	4.98	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	75	30	11	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.6%	15.7%	4.0%	4.70	4.77	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	67	283	72	31	12	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.9%	14.7%	4.2%	4.87	4.98	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	107	629	2616	820	239	84	89%	5.2	31.3%	9.1%	22.2%	3.2%	4.06	3.38	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	832	261	76	27	89%	5.2	31.3%	9.1%	22.2%	3.2%	4.06	3.38	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		126	112	614	2534	831	234	73	89%	4.9	32.8%	9.2%	23.6%	2.9%	3.72	3.07	+14.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	825	271	76	24	89%	4.9	32.8%	9.2%	23.6%	2.9%	3.72	3.07	+4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 9 IPFIP 0.57 → 0.96 (+0.40)K% 42.9% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.860	36.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.57 → 0.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 14 IPFIP -0.13 → 0.37 (+0.50)K% 52.9% → 45.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	52.94%	—	×0.860	45.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×0.900	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.13 → 0.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 63 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.93 (+1.19)K% 35.3% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.34%	—	×0.810	28.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.90%	—	×1.100	11.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.861	×1.200	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Rome Braves · 15 IPFIP 1.94 → 3.27 (+1.33)K% 38.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.71%	—	×0.770	29.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.150	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.864	×1.250	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAugusta GreenJackets · 15 IPFIP -0.53 → 0.90 (+1.43)K% 56.1% → 41.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	56.14%	—	×0.740	41.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.180	10.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.192	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP -0.53 → 0.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Strider (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	26.8%	10.3%	3.8%	—	4.87	25.9%	15.2%	135	+0.26	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	67
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	64
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	64
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	64
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	63
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	62
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	62
Gary Glover R 2005 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.327	4.50	15.2%	8.3%	132	+0.30	4.02	516	61
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	61
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	61
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	60
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	59
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	59
Vince Velasquez R 2020 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP-	3.56	29.9%	10.4%	3.0%	.356	4.65	23.0%	13.5%	207	+1.09	3.26	964	59
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	58
Antonio Guzman R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	28	SP	3.72	21.3%	8.7%	2.4%	.292	3.83	19.5%	7.8%	118	+0.11	3.15	254	58
Akeel Morris R 2021 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	21.5%	7.8%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	305	58
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	468	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	94	31.1%	9.3%	1.26	4.09
Tom Hall ('68-'77, 7 WAR*)	4.3	95	30.7%*	10.2%*	1.35*	3.95*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Bill Caudill ('79-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.3	83	32.1%*	10.2%*	1.51*	3.86*
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
Octavio Dotel ('13)	4.8	79	28.4%	10.2%	1.11	3.78