Chase Dollander
P
Colorado Rockies
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.3 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA4.28
FIP4.14
K%23.7%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.9
Whiff%
p6728.0%
K%
p6524.9%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
FB+3.9 (62%)
SL+0.8 (20%)
CT (2%)
SI (24%)
CU (8%)
CH-3.7 (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 118 | 499 | 169 | 47 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.5% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 3.07 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 118 | 499 | 169 | 47 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 33.9% | 9.4% | 24.4% | 1.4% | 2.59 | 2.20 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 514 | 99 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 6.59 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 514 | 99 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 6.59 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 3 | 44 | 189 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 30% | 4.4 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 3.89 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 66 | 281 | 69 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 24.5% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 66 | 278 | 69 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 495 | 119 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 129 | 546 | 132 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 134 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 134 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 125 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 114 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 103 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 91 | 49 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 5.20 | 5.36 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 111 | 469 | 112 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 126 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 128 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 127 | 53 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 118 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 108 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 97 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 87 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 5.54 | 5.70 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 205 | 177 | 1080 | 4589 | 1055 | 476 | 180 | 86% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 4.62 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 33 | 200 | 850 | 195 | 88 | 33 | 86% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 51 | 275 | 1202 | 276 | 131 | 29 | 88% | 4.7 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 3.84 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 873 | 201 | 95 | 21 | 88% | 4.7 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Dollander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.40 | 24.2% | 14.3% | 378 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 79 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 76 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 76 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 76 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 315 | +0.53 | 3.28 | 538 | 76 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 75 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 75 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 74 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 74 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 74 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 74 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 73 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .314 | 3.66 | 24.1% | 18.0% | 182 | -0.56 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 73 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 73 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 73 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 73 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 73 |
| Jeff Hoffman R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.36 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 282 | +0.55 | 2.11 | 1,046 | 73 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 72 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 114 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.66 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |