Chase Dollander — OGILVIE

Chase Dollander P Colorado Rockies

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.30

FIP4.19

K%23.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.9

Whiff%

p6728.0%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

FB+3.9 (62%)

SL+0.8 (20%)

CT (2%)

SI (24%)

CU (8%)

CH-3.7 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.820 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	1.6%	2.59	3.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	1.6%	2.59	3.11	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	33.9%	9.4%	24.4%	1.4%	2.59	2.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	3.3%	6.59	4.77	+0.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	3.3%	6.59	4.77	+0.2
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.7%	6.59	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	24	142	630	129	67	24	77%	4.6	20.5%	10.6%	9.8%	3.8%	5.70	4.90	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.75	+0.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.75	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	COL	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	3.2%	3.89	3.95	+0.3
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	COL	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	3.2%	3.89	3.95	+0.3
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	0.9	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.3%	4.30	4.19	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	COL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.8%	4.57	4.46	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	46	197	49	19	6	—	—	24.8%	9.6%	15.3%	3.2%	3.90	3.77	+0.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	46	193	49	19	6	—	—	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	3.3%	3.91	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	126	530	129	51	17	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.3%	4.54	4.44	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	138	581	144	56	19	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	3.3%	4.46	4.40	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	139	589	145	57	19	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	3.3%	4.45	4.44	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	139	589	145	58	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.4%	4.50	4.53	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	133	562	135	57	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.69	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	125	528	123	55	20	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.78	4.89	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	117	493	111	53	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.8%	11.8%	4.0%	4.99	5.12	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	119	502	122	49	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.8%	4.81	4.71	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	131	553	137	53	21	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	3.8%	4.73	4.67	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	132	557	138	54	21	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	3.8%	4.73	4.72	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	132	557	137	55	22	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.9%	4.79	4.82	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	126	532	128	54	22	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	4.1%	4.91	4.99	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	119	502	117	52	22	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	4.3%	5.09	5.20	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	111	469	106	50	22	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.8%	11.8%	4.6%	5.32	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		178	170	1015	4315	1016	436	172	96%	5.7	23.6%	10.1%	13.4%	4.0%	5.01	4.58	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	850	200	86	34	95%	5.7	23.6%	10.1%	13.4%	4.0%	5.01	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		58	51	275	1202	276	129	31	88%	4.7	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.5%	4.45	3.92	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	873	200	94	22	88%	4.7	22.9%	10.7%	12.2%	2.5%	4.45	3.92	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Dollander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	22.8%	10.7%	3.3%	—	4.43	24.6%	14.9%	402	-0.29	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,038	75
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	75
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	75
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	75
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	74
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	74
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	74
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	73
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	73
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	73
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	72
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	72
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	72
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	72
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	72
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	126	24.0%	10.1%	1.34	4.63
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45