Chase Dollander
P
Colorado Rockies
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA5.59
FIP4.98
xFIP3.00
SIERA2.44
K%20.5%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%9.6%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†5560
FB Velo
p9099.1
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p9030.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.269
FB+3.9 (61%)
SL+0.8 (20%)
CT (2%)
SI (24%)
CU (8%)
CH-3.7 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 23 | 118 | 499 | 169 | 47 | 7 | 26.5% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 3.10 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 25 | 25 | 113 | 514 | 99 | 59 | 19 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 6.59 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 5 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 28.7% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 3.32 | 3.68 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 83 | 34 | 12 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 98 | 414 | 106 | 40 | 15 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.17 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 118 | 46 | 17 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 127 | 49 | 18 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 130 | 50 | 18 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 130 | 51 | 19 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 125 | 50 | 18 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 119 | 49 | 18 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 112 | 48 | 18 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 104 | 47 | 18 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 97 | 45 | 17 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.02 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 89 | 44 | 17 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 5.15 | 5.24 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 81 | 42 | 16 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 85 | 361 | 73 | 40 | 16 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 5.45 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 48 | 250 | 1093 | 252 | 119 | 31 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.07 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 873 | 201 | 95 | 25 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Dollander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 23.3% | 10.9% | 3.6% | — | 4.56 | 25.4% | 15.5% | 351 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.8% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .239 | 3.67 | 26.6% | 15.8% | 234 | -1.10 | 2.94 | 708 | 80 |
| Justin Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .316 | 3.46 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.85 | 3.38 | 193 | 79 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 78 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 78 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 78 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 263 | +0.65 | 3.29 | 487 | 78 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 78 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 78 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 78 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 77 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.36 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.15 | 3.11 | 640 | 77 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 77 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 77 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 77 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 77 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 77 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 76 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 76 |
| Jorge Alcala R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .342 | 3.92 | 27.2% | 21.1% | 84 | -0.42 | 2.53 | 600 | 76 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.43 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.3% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 292 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.820 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.0 | $9M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.0 | $9M | +$5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $13M | $36M | +$23M | ||