Chase Dollander

P Colorado Rockies

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	118	2.59	2.20	33.9%	9.4%	—	K 26.5% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.11
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	113	6.59	5.09	19.3%	11.5%	0.4	K 18.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.76
2026	24	MLBCOL	10	3	44	3.89	3.96	24.9%	9.5%	0.3
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	4	4	26	4.51	4.40	24.9%	9.7%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCOL	11	11	67	4.67	4.60	25.6%	9.6%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCOL	12	12	71	4.66	4.65	25.6%	9.7%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.820First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$4M2031Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%65

xwOBA vs55

CompsShohei Ohtani (age 24) · Matt Wise (age 25) · Griffin Canning (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 95

ERA4.51

FIP4.40

K%24.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.9

Whiff%

p6728.0%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.820 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	1.6%	2.59	3.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	1.6%	2.59	3.11	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	118	499	169	47	7	100%	5.1	33.9%	9.4%	24.4%	1.4%	2.59	2.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	3.3%	6.59	4.76	+0.8
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	3.3%	6.59	4.76	+0.8
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	514	99	59	19	100%	4.5	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.7%	6.59	5.09	+0.4
2026	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.75	+0.4
2026	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.75	+0.4
2026	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	10	3	44	189	47	18	6	30%	4.4	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	3.2%	3.89	3.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	24	142	630	129	67	24	77%	4.6	20.5%	10.6%	9.8%	3.8%	5.70	4.90	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	4	4	26	110	27	11	4	100%	6.5	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	299	76	29	10	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	3.3%	4.40	4.33	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	75	315	81	31	10	100%	6.2	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.3%	4.38	4.37	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	73	309	79	30	11	100%	6.1	25.5%	9.8%	15.6%	3.4%	4.42	4.45	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	276	69	28	10	100%	5.9	24.9%	10.1%	14.8%	3.6%	4.54	4.61	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	55	231	56	24	9	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.8%	4.71	4.82	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	43	181	42	19	7	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	4.0%	4.92	5.05	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	67	283	72	27	11	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	3.8%	4.67	4.60	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	71	300	77	29	11	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.8%	4.66	4.65	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	74	29	11	100%	5.8	25.5%	9.8%	15.6%	3.9%	4.71	4.74	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	62	262	65	26	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.1%	14.8%	4.1%	4.84	4.91	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	52	220	53	23	10	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	4.3%	5.03	5.14	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	41	173	41	19	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	4.6%	5.25	5.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	84	504	2159	511	220	86	92%	5.5	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	4.0%	5.07	4.57	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	857	203	87	34	92%	5.5	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	4.0%	5.07	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		58	51	275	1202	276	129	31	88%	4.7	23.0%	10.7%	12.2%	2.5%	4.45	3.92	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	873	201	94	22	88%	4.7	23.0%	10.7%	12.2%	2.5%	4.45	3.92	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 15 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.78 (+0.16)K% 23.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.29%	—	×0.860	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×0.900	12.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.017	×1.100	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 70 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.32 (+1.06)K% 37.0% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.00%	—	×0.770	28.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.150	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.086	×1.250	2.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 48 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.80 (+0.67)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.15%	—	×0.810	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.100	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷0.916	×1.200	0.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Dollander (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.38	25.6%	15.8%	218	-0.02	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	74
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	71
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	71
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	69
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	68
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	68
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	67
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	67
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	67
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	67
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	67
Jose Acevedo R 2003 · 3.43 FIP	25	SP-	3.43	22.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.194	4.85	14.9%	9.8%	222	+1.42	3.43	368	66
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	66
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	65
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	65
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	65
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	65
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	65
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	61	23.8%	10.1%	1.39	4.83
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*