Kendry Chourio — OGILVIE

Kendry Chourio P Columbia Fireflies

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 3.4 · 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 83

ERA3.49

FIP3.49

K%22.6%

BB%2.7%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$157M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL5060

CMD4060

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$20M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.4	$25M	+$24M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.8	$28M	+$27M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+4.1	$29M	+$24M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+4.2	$28M	+$21M
2034	Arb-3	$22M	+4.3	$27M	+$18M
Totals		$49M		$157M	+$134M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	29.9%	2.4%	27.5%	0.9%	3.51	1.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
YTD	18	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	A RAW	KC	11	11	48	188	44	9	4	100%	4.4	23.4%	4.8%	18.6%	2.1%	1.88	2.90	—
2026	18	A+ RAW	KC	10	10	43	166	47	8	5	100%	4.3	28.3%	4.8%	23.5%	3.0%	3.16	2.97	—
ROS	18	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	7	29	7	1	1	100%	3.4	22.6%	2.7%	19.9%	2.9%	3.49	3.49	+0.1
2026 TOT	18	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	98	383	98	18	10	—	—	25.5%	4.6%	20.8%	2.6%	2.55	3.91	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	119	503	118	15	14	100%	4.4	23.4%	3.0%	20.4%	2.8%	3.49	3.44	+2.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	155	655	157	21	18	100%	4.7	24.0%	3.1%	20.9%	2.8%	3.45	3.38	+2.9
2029	21	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	175	739	181	23	20	100%	5.3	24.5%	3.2%	21.3%	2.7%	3.39	3.32	+3.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	193	22	20	100%	5.5	25.4%	2.9%	22.5%	2.7%	3.27	3.17	+3.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	199	20	20	100%	5.5	26.2%	2.6%	23.6%	2.6%	3.14	3.05	+4.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	180	760	203	18	20	100%	5.6	26.7%	2.4%	24.4%	2.6%	3.03	2.95	+4.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	KC	31	31	180	760	206	17	20	100%	5.8	27.1%	2.2%	24.9%	2.6%	2.95	2.90	+4.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	180	760	208	17	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	2.2%	25.1%	2.6%	2.90	2.87	+4.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	177	749	204	17	20	100%	5.9	27.3%	2.3%	25.1%	2.6%	2.91	2.91	+4.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	172	726	197	18	20	100%	5.9	27.2%	2.4%	24.8%	2.7%	2.96	3.00	+4.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	164	694	187	18	20	100%	6.1	27.0%	2.6%	24.3%	2.9%	3.06	3.13	+3.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	652	173	19	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	2.9%	23.7%	3.1%	3.21	3.30	+3.0
2039	31	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	608	159	20	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	3.3%	22.9%	3.3%	3.39	3.51	+2.4
2027	19	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	59	249	58	7	7	100%	4.2	23.4%	3.0%	20.4%	2.6%	3.37	3.32	+1.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	KC	25	25	113	477	115	15	12	100%	4.5	24.0%	3.1%	20.9%	2.6%	3.34	3.27	+2.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	KC	31	31	148	625	153	20	16	100%	4.8	24.5%	3.2%	21.3%	2.5%	3.28	3.21	+2.9
2030	22	MLB CTX	KC	32	32	162	684	174	20	17	100%	5.1	25.4%	2.9%	22.5%	2.5%	3.16	3.06	+3.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	KC	31	31	167	705	184	18	17	100%	5.4	26.2%	2.6%	23.6%	2.4%	3.03	2.94	+3.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	169	714	191	17	17	100%	5.6	26.7%	2.4%	24.4%	2.4%	2.92	2.84	+4.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	171	722	196	16	17	100%	5.9	27.1%	2.2%	24.9%	2.4%	2.84	2.79	+4.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	171	722	197	16	17	100%	6.1	27.3%	2.2%	25.1%	2.4%	2.79	2.76	+4.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	168	709	194	16	17	100%	6.0	27.3%	2.3%	25.1%	2.4%	2.80	2.80	+4.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	KC	27	27	163	688	187	17	17	100%	6.0	27.2%	2.4%	24.8%	2.5%	2.85	2.89	+3.8
2037	29	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	156	659	178	17	18	100%	6.0	27.0%	2.6%	24.3%	2.7%	2.94	3.01	+3.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	147	621	165	18	18	100%	6.1	26.6%	2.9%	23.7%	2.9%	3.08	3.17	+2.9
2039	31	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	137	578	152	19	18	100%	6.0	26.2%	3.3%	22.9%	3.1%	3.25	3.37	+2.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		348	348	1929	8147	2141	215	209	100%	5.5	26.3%	2.6%	23.6%	2.6%	3.02	2.62	+56.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	222	22	22	100%	5.5	26.3%	2.6%	23.6%	2.6%	3.02	2.62	+5.8
Career	—	MLE		35	34	142	565	113	26	14	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+47.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	48	200	796	159	36	19	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendry Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.49	22.6%	2.7%	2.9%	—	3.37	24.0%	20.9%	449	-0.12	—	—	—
Oswald Medina R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	19	SP	3.11	19.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.297	5.11	11.2%	6.3%	97	+2.00	3.11	155	87
Mikell Manzano R 2021 · 2.58 FIP	18	SP	2.58	23.0%	3.0%	1.9%	.364	3.96	15.7%	7.0%	127	+1.38	2.58	175	84
Joe Elbis R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	18	SP	3.44	18.8%	3.9%	2.6%	.324	4.32	15.4%	4.9%	261	+0.88	2.55	314	79
Fernando Perez R 2022 · 3.49 FIP	18	SP	3.49	16.9%	3.2%	2.6%	.338	3.53	17.9%	10.6%	253	+0.04	2.79	317	77
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	75
Victor Santos R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	18	SP	3.09	18.4%	2.1%	2.3%	.353	4.33	17.0%	12.2%	192	+1.24	2.79	538	74
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	73
Hansel Rincon R 2021 · 3.00 FIP	18	SP-	3.00	17.7%	1.8%	2.1%	.373	3.90	13.9%	6.5%	70	+0.90	3.00	167	72
Miguel Medrano R 2017 · 2.73 FIP	19	SP	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.313	5.34	14.7%	6.3%	54	+2.61	2.73	232	72
Wilmer Rios R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	21	SP	2.81	19.5%	2.1%	2.0%	.291	4.95	16.3%	10.5%	40	+2.14	2.81	156	72
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	72
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	72
Arnaldo Hernandez R 2015 · 3.04 FIP	19	SP-	3.04	16.3%	3.0%	1.7%	.311	4.40	15.0%	8.0%	266	+1.36	3.04	526	72
Adrian Quintana R 2021 · 3.12 FIP	18	SP	3.12	19.4%	5.0%	1.9%	.196	5.49	14.6%	3.4%	95	+2.37	3.12	203	72
Max Castillo R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	18	SP	3.70	17.7%	4.4%	2.8%	.365	3.87	15.9%	8.4%	262	+0.17	3.34	757	71
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	71
Delvin Capellan R 2017 · 2.34 FIP	18	SP	2.34	16.4%	1.9%	0.7%	.211	4.88	16.8%	11.2%	55	+2.54	2.34	200	71
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	71
Lazaro Estrada R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.46	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.37	1.92	415	71
Enniel Cortez R 2023 · 2.38 FIP	17	SP-	2.38	18.9%	3.6%	0.8%	.281	5.43	15.5%	4.3%	85	+3.05	2.38	131	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.2	160	26.0%	2.7%	1.07	3.16
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17