Kendry Chourio

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP55OGV rank#15ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	MIX2 levels	14	13	51	3.51	1.44	29.9%	2.4%	—	K 21.0% · BB 2.8% · FIP 2.31
2026	18	MIX2 levels	21	21	91	2.48	2.95	25.7%	4.8%	—	K 19.4% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	19	MLBKC	1	1	4	3.83	3.83	21.7%	4.2%	0.1
2028PROJ51% MLB	20	MLBKC	12	12	56	3.66	3.60	22.9%	4.3%	1.1
2029PROJ74% MLB	21	MLBKC	20	20	99	3.58	3.51	23.7%	4.4%	2.1

Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$8M2033Arb-2$13M2034Arb-3$20M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsOswald Medina (age 19) · Matt Tabor (age 21) · Jordan Johnson (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.83

FIP3.83

K%21.7%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%17.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$115M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$19M	+$19M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$22M	+$22M
2032	Arb-1	$8M	+3.4	$23M	+$18M
2033	Arb-2	$13M	+3.5	$22M	+$15M
2034	Arb-3	$20M	+3.6	$22M	+$12M
Totals		$44M		$122M	+$99M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	29.9%	2.4%	27.5%	0.9%	3.51	1.44	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
2026	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	25.7%	4.8%	20.9%	2.5%	2.48	2.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	KC	1	1	4	17	4	1	1	100%	4.0	21.7%	4.2%	17.5%	3.0%	3.83	3.83	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	110	464	106	20	14	100%	4.6	22.9%	4.3%	18.5%	3.0%	3.78	3.72	+2.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	KC	28	28	134	564	134	25	16	100%	4.8	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	2.9%	3.70	3.63	+2.9
2030	22	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	140	590	147	25	17	100%	5.2	24.9%	4.2%	20.7%	2.8%	3.57	3.47	+3.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	142	600	154	24	17	100%	5.3	25.6%	3.9%	21.7%	2.8%	3.45	3.35	+3.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	141	595	156	22	16	100%	5.6	26.2%	3.7%	22.5%	2.8%	3.34	3.26	+3.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	139	588	156	21	16	100%	5.8	26.6%	3.6%	23.0%	2.8%	3.26	3.20	+3.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	140	591	158	21	16	100%	6.1	26.8%	3.5%	23.2%	2.8%	3.21	3.18	+3.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	137	580	155	21	16	100%	6.0	26.8%	3.6%	23.1%	2.8%	3.22	3.22	+3.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	132	558	149	21	16	100%	6.0	26.7%	3.8%	22.9%	2.9%	3.27	3.30	+3.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	524	138	21	16	100%	5.9	26.4%	4.0%	22.4%	3.1%	3.37	3.43	+3.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	479	125	21	16	100%	6.0	26.1%	4.3%	21.8%	3.3%	3.51	3.61	+2.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	102	429	110	20	15	100%	6.0	25.7%	4.6%	21.0%	3.5%	3.69	3.81	+1.9
2040	32	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	378	95	19	14	100%	6.0	25.2%	5.0%	20.2%	3.7%	3.90	4.04	+1.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	56	236	54	10	6	100%	4.7	22.9%	4.3%	18.5%	2.7%	3.66	3.60	+1.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	99	418	99	18	11	100%	5.0	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	2.7%	3.58	3.51	+2.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	119	502	125	21	13	100%	5.2	24.9%	4.2%	20.7%	2.6%	3.45	3.35	+2.8
2031	23	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	128	540	138	21	14	100%	5.3	25.6%	3.9%	21.7%	2.6%	3.33	3.23	+3.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	130	549	144	20	14	100%	5.7	26.2%	3.7%	22.5%	2.6%	3.23	3.15	+3.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	130	549	146	20	14	100%	5.9	26.6%	3.6%	23.0%	2.5%	3.15	3.09	+3.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	133	562	150	20	14	100%	6.0	26.8%	3.5%	23.2%	2.5%	3.10	3.07	+3.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	131	553	148	20	14	100%	6.0	26.8%	3.6%	23.1%	2.6%	3.10	3.10	+3.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	125	528	141	20	14	100%	6.0	26.7%	3.8%	22.9%	2.7%	3.15	3.18	+3.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	118	498	132	20	14	100%	5.9	26.4%	4.0%	22.4%	2.8%	3.24	3.30	+2.8
2038	30	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	108	456	119	20	14	100%	6.0	26.1%	4.3%	21.8%	3.0%	3.38	3.48	+2.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	105	19	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	4.6%	21.0%	3.2%	3.55	3.67	+1.8
2040	32	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	85	359	90	18	12	100%	6.1	25.2%	5.0%	20.2%	3.5%	3.75	3.89	+1.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	258	1458	6156	1590	247	169	100%	5.7	25.8%	4.0%	21.8%	2.7%	3.32	2.94	+45.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	218	34	23	100%	5.7	25.8%	4.0%	21.8%	2.7%	3.32	2.94	+6.2
Career	—	MLE		35	34	142	565	113	26	14	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+38.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	48	200	796	159	36	19	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 48 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.87 (+0.97)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.740	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.79%	—	×1.180	5.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 43 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.03 (+1.05)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.31%	—	×0.770	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.82%	—	×1.150	5.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 29 IPFIP 0.35 → 1.29 (+0.94)K% 33.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.91%	—	×0.680	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.87%	—	×1.250	1.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.939	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 0.35 → 1.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 23 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.53 (+0.87)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.180	4.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.086	×1.300	2.49%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendry Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	3.60	23.9%	19.6%	383	-0.23	—	—	—
Oswald Medina R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	19	SP	3.11	19.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.297	5.11	11.2%	6.3%	97	+2.00	3.11	155	87
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	84
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	77
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	77
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	77
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	76
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	75
Lazaro Estrada R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.46	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.37	1.92	418	75
Miguel Medrano R 2017 · 2.73 FIP	19	SP	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.313	5.34	14.7%	6.3%	54	+2.61	2.73	232	75
Manuel Urias R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	18	SP	3.28	16.6%	4.4%	1.9%	.220	2.78	18.5%	13.5%	93	-0.50	2.18	481	74
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	74
Arnaldo Hernandez R 2015 · 3.04 FIP	19	SP-	3.04	16.3%	3.0%	1.7%	.311	4.40	15.0%	8.0%	266	+1.36	3.04	526	74
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	73
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	73
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	73
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	73
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	72
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	72
Wilmer Rios R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	21	SP	2.81	19.5%	2.1%	2.0%	.291	4.95	16.3%	10.5%	40	+2.14	2.81	156	72
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.7	124	25.5%	4.0%	1.15	3.48
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Bret Saberhagen ('84-'01, 57 WAR*)	12.8	171	21.4%*	4.4%*	0.95*	3.37*
Pascual Perez ('80-'91, 19 WAR*)	6.2	138	21.3%*	6.7%*	1.24*	3.85*
Jimmy Key ('84-'98, 50 WAR*)	13.0	173	18.9%*	5.9%*	1.05*	3.49*