Kendry Chourio — OGILVIE

Kendry Chourio P Columbia Fireflies

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87

ERA3.76

FIP3.76

K%22.6%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%17.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL5060

CMD4060

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$22M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	MIX	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.26	—
2025	17	MIX	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	29.9%	2.4%	27.5%	0.9%	3.51	1.44	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	15	15	68	265	65	12	5	100%	4.5	18.4%	5.3%	13.1%	2.4%	2.26	3.56	+0.9
ROS	18	MLB	KC	14	14	65	274	62	13	8	100%	4.6	22.6%	4.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.76	3.76	+0.7
ROS	18	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	4.9%	17.8%	2.8%	3.71	3.71	—
2026 TOT	18	MLB	KC	—	—	132	539	127	25	13	—	—	23.6%	4.7%	18.9%	2.4%	2.99	3.66	+2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	KC	26	26	111	470	110	23	13	100%	4.3	23.4%	5.0%	18.5%	2.8%	3.73	3.68	+2.2
2028	20	MLB	KC	32	32	147	621	149	31	17	100%	4.6	24.0%	5.0%	19.0%	2.8%	3.67	3.61	+3.1
2029	21	MLB	KC	33	33	175	739	181	36	20	100%	5.3	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	2.7%	3.60	3.53	+3.8
2030	22	MLB	KC	33	33	180	760	193	35	20	100%	5.5	25.4%	4.6%	20.8%	2.7%	3.48	3.38	+4.3
2031	23	MLB	KC	33	33	180	760	199	32	20	100%	5.5	26.2%	4.3%	21.9%	2.6%	3.35	3.26	+4.5
2032	24	MLB	KC	32	32	180	760	203	31	20	100%	5.6	26.7%	4.0%	22.7%	2.6%	3.24	3.16	+4.7
2033	25	MLB	KC	31	31	180	760	206	30	20	100%	5.8	27.1%	3.9%	23.2%	2.6%	3.16	3.11	+4.8
2034	26	MLB	KC	30	30	180	760	208	29	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	3.9%	23.4%	2.6%	3.11	3.08	+4.9
2035	27	MLB	KC	30	30	177	749	204	29	20	100%	5.9	27.3%	3.9%	23.4%	2.6%	3.12	3.12	+4.7
2036	28	MLB	KC	29	29	172	726	197	30	20	100%	5.9	27.2%	4.1%	23.1%	2.7%	3.17	3.21	+4.4
2037	29	MLB	KC	27	27	164	694	187	30	20	100%	6.1	27.0%	4.3%	22.6%	2.9%	3.27	3.34	+4.0
2038	30	MLB	KC	26	26	154	652	173	30	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	4.6%	22.0%	3.1%	3.42	3.51	+3.4
2039	31	MLB	KC	24	24	144	608	159	30	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	5.0%	21.2%	3.3%	3.60	3.72	+2.8
2027	19	MLB	KC	13	13	55	232	54	11	6	100%	4.2	23.4%	5.0%	18.5%	2.7%	3.68	3.63	+0.6
2028	20	MLB	KC	23	23	107	452	108	22	12	100%	4.7	24.0%	5.0%	19.0%	2.7%	3.62	3.56	+2.3
2029	21	MLB	KC	31	31	148	625	153	31	17	100%	4.8	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	2.6%	3.55	3.48	+3.3
2030	22	MLB	KC	32	32	162	684	174	31	18	100%	5.1	25.4%	4.6%	20.8%	2.6%	3.43	3.33	+3.9
2031	23	MLB	KC	31	31	167	705	184	30	18	100%	5.4	26.2%	4.3%	21.9%	2.5%	3.30	3.21	+4.3
2032	24	MLB	KC	30	30	169	714	191	29	18	100%	5.6	26.7%	4.0%	22.7%	2.5%	3.19	3.11	+4.5
2033	25	MLB	KC	29	29	171	722	196	28	18	100%	5.9	27.1%	3.9%	23.2%	2.5%	3.11	3.06	+4.7
2034	26	MLB	KC	28	28	171	722	197	28	18	100%	6.1	27.3%	3.9%	23.4%	2.5%	3.06	3.03	+4.7
2035	27	MLB	KC	28	28	168	709	194	28	18	100%	6.0	27.3%	3.9%	23.4%	2.6%	3.07	3.07	+4.6
2036	28	MLB	KC	27	27	163	688	187	28	18	100%	6.0	27.2%	4.1%	23.1%	2.6%	3.12	3.16	+4.3
2037	29	MLB	KC	26	26	156	659	178	28	18	100%	6.0	27.0%	4.3%	22.6%	2.8%	3.22	3.29	+3.9
2038	30	MLB	KC	24	24	147	621	165	29	19	100%	6.1	26.6%	4.6%	22.0%	3.0%	3.36	3.45	+3.3
2039	31	MLB	KC	23	23	137	578	152	29	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	5.0%	21.2%	3.2%	3.54	3.66	+2.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			346	346	1920	8105	2131	353	216	100%	5.5	26.3%	4.3%	21.9%	2.7%	3.29	2.90	+56.2
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	222	37	23	100%	5.6	26.3%	4.3%	21.9%	2.7%	3.29	2.90	+5.9
Career	—			29	28	119	476	93	20	9	97%	4.1	19.5%	4.2%	15.3%	1.8%	2.80	2.98	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			49	47	200	800	156	34	15	97%	4.1	19.5%	4.2%	15.3%	1.8%	2.80	2.98	+5.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendry Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	22.6%	4.9%	2.9%	—	3.60	24.0%	19.1%	433	-0.16	—	—	—
Oswald Medina R 2027 · 3.01 FIP	19	SP	3.01	19.8%	3.4%	2.1%	.297	5.17	11.2%	6.3%	97	+2.16	3.01	155	84
Matt Tabor R 2029 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	82
Joe Elbis R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	18	SP	3.46	18.8%	3.9%	2.6%	.324	4.38	15.4%	4.9%	261	+0.92	2.55	314	82
Ryan Sloan R 2027 · 3.17 FIP	19	SP	3.17	20.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.337	3.75	24.1%	19.0%	62	+0.58	3.17	133	82
Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP-	3.97	22.8%	6.2%	3.7%	.323	5.20	15.0%	4.5%	187	+1.23	3.97	227	79
Hyun-il Choi R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.37	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.40	3.97	455	78
Jordan Johnson R 2029 · 2.91 FIP	21	SP	2.91	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.12	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.21	2.91	443	78
Jean Cabrera R 2027 · 2.66 FIP	19	SP	2.66	21.2%	6.4%	1.0%	.266	3.97	18.4%	9.0%	234	+1.31	2.66	488	78
Adrian Quintana R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	18	SP	3.12	19.4%	5.0%	1.9%	.196	5.71	14.6%	3.4%	95	+2.59	3.12	203	78
Lazaro Estrada R 2027 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.44	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.35	1.92	387	77
Fernando Perez R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	18	SP	3.35	16.9%	3.2%	2.3%	.338	3.64	17.9%	10.6%	253	+0.29	2.79	309	77
Victor Juarez R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	18	SP-	3.00	22.5%	6.2%	1.9%	.256	5.25	17.7%	8.7%	306	+2.25	3.00	451	77
Max Castillo R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	18	SP	3.70	17.7%	4.4%	2.8%	.365	3.79	15.9%	8.4%	262	+0.09	3.22	757	76
Manuel Urias R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	18	SP	3.28	16.6%	4.4%	1.9%	.220	2.80	18.5%	13.5%	93	-0.48	2.15	481	76
Miguel Medrano R 2027 · 2.73 FIP	19	SP	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.313	5.34	14.7%	6.3%	54	+2.61	2.73	232	75
Braylon Doughty R 2027 · 2.92 FIP	19	SP	2.92	20.2%	7.5%	1.1%	.339	2.87	21.7%	15.9%	73	-0.05	2.87	158	75
Jaden Hamm R 2029 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	75
Aaron Phillips R 2029 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.7%	4.4%	3.5%	.290	5.27	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.42	3.85	289	75
Jorge Marcheco R 2027 · 3.17 FIP	19	SP-	3.17	25.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.336	5.09	17.7%	9.9%	280	+1.92	3.17	353	75
Carlo Reyes R 2029 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.18	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.30	2.79	229	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	159	26.0%	4.4%	1.07	3.37
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Corey Kluber ('23)	8	149	26.1%	5.4%	1.05	3.48
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86