Kendry Chourio — OGILVIE

Kendry Chourio P Columbia Fireflies

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.5 · 2034

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.84

FIP3.84

K%21.7%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%17.5%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$99M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL5060

CMD4060

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.0	$20M	+$19M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+3.3	$22M	+$16M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+3.4	$21M	+$13M
2034	Arb-3	$22M	+3.6	$22M	+$11M
Totals		$49M		$113M	+$87M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	21.0%	2.8%	18.2%	1.1%	3.51	2.31	—
2025	17	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	51	211	63	5	2	93%	3.7	29.9%	2.4%	27.5%	0.9%	3.51	1.44	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	3.2%	2.48	3.94	—
2026	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	91	354	91	17	9	100%	4.3	25.7%	4.8%	20.9%	2.5%	2.48	2.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	KC	21	21	90	380	82	16	11	100%	4.3	21.7%	4.2%	17.5%	3.0%	3.84	3.84	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	124	526	119	23	16	100%	4.6	22.7%	4.3%	18.4%	3.0%	3.79	3.73	+1.7
2029	21	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	165	695	163	31	20	100%	5.0	23.5%	4.4%	19.1%	2.9%	3.72	3.64	+2.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	175	739	182	31	21	100%	5.3	24.6%	4.2%	20.5%	2.8%	3.59	3.49	+3.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	193	30	21	100%	5.5	25.3%	3.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.47	3.38	+3.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	180	760	197	28	21	100%	5.6	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	2.8%	3.36	3.28	+3.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	KC	31	31	180	760	200	27	21	100%	5.8	26.3%	3.6%	22.7%	2.8%	3.28	3.23	+3.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	180	760	201	27	21	100%	6.0	26.5%	3.5%	22.9%	2.8%	3.23	3.20	+3.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	177	749	198	27	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	3.6%	22.9%	2.8%	3.24	3.24	+3.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	172	726	192	27	21	100%	5.9	26.4%	3.8%	22.6%	2.9%	3.29	3.33	+3.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	164	694	181	28	21	100%	6.1	26.1%	4.0%	22.1%	3.1%	3.39	3.46	+2.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	652	168	28	21	100%	5.9	25.8%	4.3%	21.5%	3.3%	3.54	3.63	+2.4
2039	31	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	608	154	28	21	100%	6.0	25.4%	4.6%	20.7%	3.5%	3.72	3.84	+1.8
2040	32	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	133	562	140	28	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	5.0%	19.9%	3.7%	3.92	4.06	+1.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	61	258	59	11	7	100%	4.7	22.7%	4.3%	18.4%	2.7%	3.67	3.61	+0.9
2029	21	MLB CTX	KC	25	25	120	507	119	22	14	100%	4.8	23.5%	4.4%	19.1%	2.7%	3.60	3.52	+1.8
2030	22	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	148	625	154	26	16	100%	5.1	24.6%	4.2%	20.5%	2.6%	3.47	3.37	+2.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	162	684	173	27	18	100%	5.4	25.3%	3.9%	21.4%	2.6%	3.35	3.26	+3.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	166	701	182	26	18	100%	5.5	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.17	+3.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	168	709	186	25	18	100%	5.8	26.3%	3.6%	22.7%	2.5%	3.17	3.12	+3.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	171	722	191	26	18	100%	6.1	26.5%	3.5%	22.9%	2.5%	3.12	3.09	+3.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	168	709	188	26	18	100%	6.0	26.5%	3.6%	22.9%	2.6%	3.12	3.12	+3.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	KC	27	27	163	688	181	26	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	3.8%	22.6%	2.7%	3.17	3.21	+3.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	156	659	172	26	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	4.0%	22.1%	2.8%	3.26	3.33	+2.7
2038	30	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	147	621	160	27	19	100%	6.1	25.8%	4.3%	21.5%	3.0%	3.41	3.50	+2.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	137	578	147	27	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	4.6%	20.7%	3.2%	3.58	3.70	+1.7
2040	32	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	127	536	134	27	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	5.0%	19.9%	3.5%	3.77	3.91	+1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	334	1894	7995	2046	322	221	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.0%	21.6%	2.8%	3.35	2.96	+46.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	216	34	23	100%	5.7	25.6%	4.0%	21.6%	2.8%	3.35	2.96	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		35	34	142	565	113	26	14	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+36.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	48	200	796	159	36	19	97%	4.1	20.0%	4.6%	15.4%	2.5%	2.85	3.33	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendry Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	21.7%	4.2%	3.0%	—	3.61	23.7%	19.4%	464	-0.23	—	—	—
Oswald Medina R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	19	SP	3.11	19.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.297	5.11	11.2%	6.3%	97	+2.00	3.11	155	87
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	84
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	78
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	77
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	77
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	76
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	75
Lazaro Estrada R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.46	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.37	1.92	418	75
Miguel Medrano R 2017 · 2.73 FIP	19	SP	2.73	17.8%	3.8%	1.2%	.313	5.34	14.7%	6.3%	54	+2.61	2.73	232	75
Manuel Urias R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	18	SP	3.28	16.6%	4.4%	1.9%	.220	2.78	18.5%	13.5%	93	-0.50	2.18	481	75
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	74
Arnaldo Hernandez R 2015 · 3.04 FIP	19	SP-	3.04	16.3%	3.0%	1.7%	.311	4.40	15.0%	8.0%	266	+1.36	3.04	526	74
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	73
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	73
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	73
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	73
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	72
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	72
Wilmer Rios R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	21	SP	2.81	19.5%	2.1%	2.0%	.291	4.95	16.3%	10.5%	40	+2.14	2.81	156	72
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.1	159	25.3%	4.0%	1.15	3.50
Curt Schilling ('07)	16.2	180	23.6%	5.3%	0.95	3.42
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Madison Bumgarner ('23) AS×4SS	11.0	170	22.8%	6.0%	1.05	3.47
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	16.9	178	21.5%	5.5%	0.97	3.49
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.96	3.71