Kendry Chourio
P
Columbia Fireflies
+0.6
WAR
Age 18
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2034
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.7%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2034
OFP—50
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 14 | 13 | 51 | 211 | 63 | 5 | 2 | 21.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.51 | 2.32 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 3 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 18 | MLB | KC | — | — | 64 | 266 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 24.3% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.34 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | KC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | KC | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 57 | 19 | 7 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | KC | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 66 | 20 | 7 | 25.0% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 70 | 19 | 7 | 25.7% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 74 | 19 | 7 | 26.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.56 | 3.51 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 76 | 19 | 7 | 26.8% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.49 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 281 | 76 | 19 | 7 | 26.9% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.51 | 3.50 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 74 | 19 | 7 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.53 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 72 | 19 | 7 | 26.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 3.58 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 70 | 18 | 7 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | KC | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 66 | 18 | 7 | 26.2% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 16 | 64 | 260 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 22.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 2.07 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 50 | 200 | 812 | 184 | 25 | 6 | 22.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 2.07 | +7.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kendry Chourio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.01 | 23.7% | 15.8% | 170 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Marcheco R 2027 · 3.12 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .336 | 4.90 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 280 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 331 | 91 |
| Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.93 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .323 | 4.61 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 123 | +0.68 | 3.93 | 163 | 86 |
| Efrain Contreras R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.51 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .275 | 4.09 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 110 | +0.58 | 3.51 | 367 | 84 |
| Victor Juarez R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.02 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | .256 | 5.30 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 306 | +2.28 | 3.02 | 420 | 84 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.41 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.37 | 4.04 | 104 | 84 |
| Francys Peguero R 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 19 | SU | 2.85 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 2.1% | .274 | 3.38 | 17.0% | 12.4% | 33 | +0.53 | 2.85 | 293 | 83 |
| Jose Romero R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.20 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | .267 | 4.34 | 13.7% | 4.3% | 87 | +1.14 | 3.20 | 129 | 83 |
| Deivi García R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .287 | 3.41 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 215 | -1.13 | 3.30 | 646 | 82 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.18 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.29 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.11 | 3.18 | 130 | 82 |
| Hyun-il Choi R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.97 | 18.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.27 | 19.1% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.30 | 3.97 | 455 | 82 |
| Matt Manning R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.10 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .373 | 3.19 | 23.4% | 13.1% | 258 | +0.09 | 2.83 | 714 | 82 |
| Andry Rondon R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 82 |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 82 |
| Ivan Oviedo R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.68 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .286 | 4.39 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 111 | +0.71 | 3.68 | 174 | 81 |
| Alfredi Jimenez R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.09 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .246 | 4.20 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 112 | +1.11 | 3.09 | 187 | 81 |
| Breidy Encarnación R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.10 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .239 | 5.24 | 18.1% | 3.6% | 50 | +2.14 | 3.10 | 164 | 81 |
| Israel Puello R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.01 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 1.1% | .275 | 5.59 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 135 | +2.58 | 3.01 | 266 | 80 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.08 | 20.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% | .257 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 99 | +0.31 | 3.08 | 139 | 80 |
| Jordarlin Mendoza R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.26 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 1.4% | .325 | 5.12 | 19.7% | -2.2% | 54 | +1.86 | 3.26 | 109 | 80 |
| Jordan Johnson R 2029 · 2.93 FIP | 21 | SW | 2.93 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .347 | 4.98 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 350 | +2.05 | 2.93 | 443 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.2 | $12M | +$8M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.1 | $11M | +$5M |
| Totals | $16M | $58M | +$42M | ||