Lazaro Estrada
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
xFIP3.49
SIERA4.20
K%21.5%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.0%
IP94
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5055
FB+1.6 (58%)
SL+0.6 (32%)
CU (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 70 | 279 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 2.06 | 3.09 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 7 | 2 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 2.66 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 9 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 27.7% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 1.92 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 28 | 9 | 76 | 309 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 24.7% | 9.9% | 1.0% | 2.83 | 2.85 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 22 | 22 | 98 | 403 | 113 | 33 | 8 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.62 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 28 | 20 | 105 | 464 | 109 | 33 | 19 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.93 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 50 | 205 | 45 | 18 | 7 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 86 | 34 | 15 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 84 | 33 | 15 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 80 | 32 | 14 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 77 | 31 | 14 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 73 | 31 | 14 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 75 | 27 | 13 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 70 | 27 | 13 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 65 | 26 | 13 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 4.97 | 5.03 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 67 | 281 | 60 | 25 | 12 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 73 | 395 | 1645 | 368 | 139 | 45 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.62 | 3.79 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 37 | 200 | 832 | 186 | 70 | 23 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.62 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lazaro Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% | — | 4.80 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 277 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 4.09 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 382 | 79 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 78 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -2.01 | 1.94 | 131 | 76 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 76 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 75 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .299 | 2.51 | 27.4% | 19.8% | 195 | -2.74 | 2.37 | 393 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2029 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Tyler Ferguson R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.21 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .231 | 3.54 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 209 | -0.67 | 2.54 | 369 | 74 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 73 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 73 |
| Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .231 | 4.26 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 110 | +0.18 | 3.45 | 542 | 72 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 72 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.71 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 3.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 233 | 72 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.22 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.85 | 3.09 | 159 | 72 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 179 | 71 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 71 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.0M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||