Lazaro Estrada
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%20.2%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.6 (52%)
SL+0.6 (33%)
CU (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 70 | 279 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 2.06 | 3.09 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 70 | 279 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 31.2% | 4.3% | 26.9% | 1.4% | 2.06 | 1.87 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 29% | 2.9 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 2.66 | 4.44 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 29% | 2.9 | 31.8% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 2.3% | 2.66 | 2.80 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 2.1 | 27.7% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 1.92 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 2.1 | 40.5% | 8.9% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 0.84 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 28 | 9 | 76 | 309 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 32% | 2.7 | 24.7% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 0.8% | 2.83 | 2.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 28 | 9 | 76 | 309 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 32% | 2.7 | 33.3% | 8.4% | 24.9% | 1.0% | 2.83 | 1.93 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 98 | 403 | 113 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.29 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 98 | 403 | 113 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.0% | 8.2% | 19.9% | 2.0% | 3.29 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 105 | 464 | 109 | 33 | 19 | 71% | 3.7 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 5.93 | 5.83 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 105 | 464 | 109 | 33 | 19 | 71% | 3.7 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 16.4% | 4.1% | 5.93 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 26 | 104 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 27% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 3.76 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 67 | 276 | 56 | 24 | 10 | — | — | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.32 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 47 | 198 | 56 | 24 | 10 | — | — | 28.0% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 6.16 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 5.18 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 51 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 5.18 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 52 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 48 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 31 | 238 | 1006 | 202 | 89 | 43 | 42% | 3.3 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 4.89 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 26 | 200 | 845 | 170 | 75 | 36 | 42% | 3.2 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 76 | 415 | 1726 | 382 | 143 | 52 | 64% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.94 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 37 | 200 | 832 | 184 | 69 | 25 | 64% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lazaro Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% | — | 5.30 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 194 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 71 |
| Shelby Miller R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.68 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 6.1% | .404 | 4.86 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 102 | -0.82 | 2.93 | 694 | 69 |
| Duncan Davitt R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.52 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 423 | 66 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.45 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 275 | 65 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 64 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 64 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 64 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 64 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .336 | 4.33 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 110 | +0.16 | 3.46 | 572 | 64 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 63 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 63 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.10 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 66 | +0.04 | 4.07 | 470 | 63 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 63 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 63 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 5.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.95 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 161 | 62 |
| Logan Martin R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.68 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 223 | 62 |
| Nick Pivetta R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.21 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | .318 | 4.01 | 26.4% | 17.3% | 477 | -1.20 | 1.18 | 1,578 | 62 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 62 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 1.65 | 5.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |