Lazaro Estrada — OGILVIE

Lazaro Estrada P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%19.2%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

FB+1.6 (44%)

SL+0.6 (32%)

CU (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	14	14	70	279	87	12	4	100%	5.0	21.2%	5.4%	15.8%	2.0%	2.06	3.09	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	14	14	70	279	87	12	4	100%	5.0	31.2%	4.3%	26.9%	1.4%	2.06	1.87	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	20	88	28	8	2	29%	2.9	22.7%	11.0%	11.7%	3.4%	2.66	4.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	20	88	28	8	2	29%	2.9	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	2.3%	2.66	2.80	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	19	79	32	7	0	67%	2.1	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	0.0%	3.79	1.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	19	79	32	7	0	67%	2.1	40.5%	8.9%	31.6%	0.0%	3.79	0.84	—
2023	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	28	9	76	309	103	26	3	32%	2.7	24.7%	9.9%	14.7%	1.0%	2.83	2.82	—
2023	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	28	9	76	309	103	26	3	32%	2.7	24.7%	9.9%	14.7%	1.0%	2.83	2.82	—
2023	24	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	28	9	76	309	103	26	3	32%	2.7	33.3%	8.4%	24.9%	1.0%	2.83	1.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	28.0%	8.2%	19.9%	2.0%	3.29	2.87	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	19.2%	6.7%	12.4%	5.1%	5.93	5.16	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	19.2%	6.7%	12.4%	5.1%	5.93	5.16	-0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	4.1%	5.93	4.32	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	20	92	19	10	4	0%	2.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	4.3%	6.64	5.26	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	24	5	48	194	41	20	6	21%	2.0	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.5%	3.91	4.69	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	24	5	48	194	41	20	6	21%	2.0	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.5%	3.91	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	TOR	1	1	2	10	2	1	0	100%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	13.50	2.68	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	TOR	15	4	33	127	30	10	4	27%	2.2	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	3.1%	2.70	3.83	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	TOR	8	0	13	57	9	9	2	0%	1.6	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	3.5%	5.54	5.69	-0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	TOR	8	0	13	57	9	9	2	0%	1.6	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	3.5%	5.54	5.69	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	3.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	3.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	54	219	46	22	7	—	—	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.2%	3.98	4.68	-0.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	19	80	46	22	7	—	—	57.5%	27.6%	29.9%	8.7%	11.43	6.52	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	287	55	25	11	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.9%	10.3%	3.8%	5.02	5.06	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	274	53	25	11	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.9%	5.06	5.13	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	53	24	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.9%	10.3%	3.8%	5.02	5.06	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	50	24	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.9%	5.06	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	21	152	649	126	60	25	57%	4.1	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.9%	5.23	4.76	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	28	200	853	166	79	33	57%	4.2	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.9%	5.23	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		132	78	437	1816	392	149	52	59%	3.3	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.8%	3.71	3.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	36	200	831	179	68	24	59%	3.3	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.8%	3.71	3.88	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lazaro Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.4%	7.5%	3.8%	—	5.09	19.2%	10.2%	133	+0.23	—	—	—
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	71
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	69
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	68
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	67
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	66
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	66
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	66
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	65
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	65
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	65
Joel Seddon R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	18.0%	10.8%	3.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	474	64
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	63
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	63
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	63
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	62
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	62
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.2%	8.5%	1.47	4.98
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41