Hyun-il Choi
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%9.6%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Mota | 14 | 11 | 65 | 262 | 71 | 11 | 6 | 18.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.63 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 11 | 106 | 415 | 106 | 18 | 12 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.55 | 4.27 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 16 | 13 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 13.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 24 | 21 | 115 | 505 | 102 | 40 | 13 | 17.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 30 | 20 | 116 | 494 | 88 | 34 | 23 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.87 | 5.83 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 71 | 37 | 17 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 76 | 38 | 17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 78 | 38 | 17 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 77 | 38 | 16 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 74 | 37 | 16 | 17.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 71 | 36 | 16 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 67 | 35 | 16 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 63 | 34 | 15 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 58 | 33 | 15 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 54 | 32 | 14 | 15.5% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 5.55 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 55 | 28 | 14 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 5.52 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 77 | 467 | 1947 | 327 | 126 | 76 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.12 | 4.64 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 33 | 200 | 834 | 140 | 54 | 33 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.12 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hyun-il Choi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | — | 5.11 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 324 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 94 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 93 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 90 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 89 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 88 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 88 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 88 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 88 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 88 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 86 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .344 | 4.99 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.37 | 4.37 | 412 | 86 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 86 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 86 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 86 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 86 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 86 |
| Drew Rucinski R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.53 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .336 | 3.57 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 278 | -1.96 | 2.69 | 409 | 85 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.