Manuel Urias

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 243 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AHOU	24	5	56	4.15	3.19	30.0%	7.7%	—	K 22.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.54
2024	23	A+HOU	25	12	105	6.19	5.11	23.0%	7.1%	—	K 17.7% · BB 8.1% · FIP 6.07
2025	24	MIX2 levels	26	18	106	4.75	4.39	18.3%	8.9%	—	K 14.7% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.98
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBHOU	1	1	1	5.49	5.49	13.8%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBHOU	4	4	27	5.39	5.41	14.6%	10.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBHOU	6	6	37	5.36	5.40	15.1%	10.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

CompsEdgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Bryce Morrow (age 27) · Nick Pasquale (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%13.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	11	60	250	44	11	0	92%	5.0	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	0.0%	1.95	2.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	11	60	250	44	11	0	92%	5.0	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	0.0%	1.95	2.18	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	13	61	225	55	8	3	100%	4.7	16.6%	4.4%	12.2%	1.9%	1.48	3.28	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	13	61	225	55	8	3	100%	4.7	24.4%	3.6%	20.9%	1.3%	1.48	2.33	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	14	14	54	214	63	6	1	100%	3.9	20.0%	3.5%	16.5%	0.6%	1.82	2.18	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	14	14	54	214	63	6	1	100%	3.9	29.4%	2.8%	26.6%	0.5%	1.82	1.35	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	43	177	45	10	2	50%	3.1	16.3%	7.1%	9.2%	1.9%	3.77	3.64	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	43	177	45	10	2	50%	3.1	25.4%	5.6%	19.8%	1.1%	3.77	2.31	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	21%	2.3	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.9%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	21%	2.3	30.0%	7.7%	22.3%	3.0%	4.15	3.19	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.5%	6.2%	6.19	6.07	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.5%	6.2%	6.19	6.07	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	5.4%	6.19	5.11	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	14.7%	9.8%	4.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	14.7%	9.8%	4.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	18.3%	8.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	13.8%	11.0%	2.9%	3.3%	5.49	5.49	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	301	44	32	10	100%	6.0	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	3.3%	5.39	5.41	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	260	39	28	9	100%	6.2	15.1%	10.6%	4.4%	3.4%	5.36	5.40	0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	56	235	36	25	8	100%	6.2	15.2%	10.7%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.48	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	50	212	32	23	8	100%	6.3	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	3.7%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	27	114	17	12	4	100%	6.8	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	3.3%	5.39	5.41	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	37	156	24	17	5	100%	6.2	15.1%	10.6%	4.4%	3.4%	5.36	5.40	0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	39	165	25	18	6	100%	6.5	15.2%	10.7%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.48	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	39	165	25	18	6	100%	6.5	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	3.7%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	23	142	601	90	65	21	100%	6.2	15.0%	10.8%	4.2%	3.5%	5.42	5.10	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	127	91	30	100%	6.1	15.0%	10.8%	4.2%	3.5%	5.42	5.10	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		128	80	485	2025	341	148	63	62%	3.8	16.8%	7.3%	9.5%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	33	200	834	140	61	26	62%	3.8	16.8%	7.3%	9.5%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 92 IPFIP 4.63 → 5.28 (+0.64)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.29%	—	×0.810	14.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 14 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.08 (+0.54)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.59%	—	×0.770	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×1.150	5.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.297	×1.250	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 105 IPFIP 5.00 → 6.07 (+1.07)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.96%	—	×0.770	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.08%	—	×1.150	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	5.36%	÷1.073	×1.250	6.25%

Result: FIP 5.00 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 56 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.54 (+1.35)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.04%	—	×0.740	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.180	9.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷0.993	×1.300	3.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Phillies · 38 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.64 (+1.16)K% 23.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.680	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.250	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷0.947	×1.400	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 54 IPFIP 1.23 → 2.18 (+0.96)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.44%	—	×0.680	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.80%	—	×1.250	3.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷1.096	×1.400	0.60%

Result: FIP 1.23 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 61 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.28 (+1.07)K% 24.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.680	16.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.56%	—	×1.250	4.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.87%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 60 IPFIP 2.17 → 2.79 (+0.61)K% 17.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.60%	—	×0.680	11.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.40%	—	×1.250	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.17 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Urias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	13.8%	11.0%	3.3%	—	5.43	14.9%	4.2%	189	-0.06	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	86
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	85
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	84
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	83
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	81
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	81
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	80
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	80
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	80
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	79
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	79
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	79
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	78
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	14.7%	10.8%	1.32	5.43
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*