Manuel Urias — OGILVIE

Manuel Urias P Corpus Christi Hooks

+0.0 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 243 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.9%

IP101

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2027

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	12	11	60	250	44	11	0	12.0%	5.5%	0.0%	1.95	2.79	+1.5
2019	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	13	13	61	225	55	8	3	16.6%	4.4%	1.9%	1.48	3.28	+1.2
2021	20	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	14	14	54	214	63	6	1	20.0%	3.5%	0.5%	1.82	2.15	+1.7
2022	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	14	7	43	177	45	10	2	16.3%	7.1%	2.2%	3.77	3.83	+0.5
2023	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	22.2%	9.1%	3.9%	4.15	4.54	+0.3
2024	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	17.7%	8.1%	6.3%	6.19	6.09	-0.9
2025	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	14.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.75	4.91	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	HOU	18	18	101	425	70	46	15	16.5%	10.9%	3.5%	5.38	5.38	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	HOU	20	20	108	454	79	48	16	17.4%	10.5%	3.4%	5.25	5.23	+0.1
2028	27	MLB	HOU	20	20	111	468	83	48	16	17.8%	10.3%	3.4%	5.17	5.17	+0.2
2029	28	MLB	HOU	20	20	111	469	84	48	16	17.9%	10.2%	3.4%	5.14	5.15	+0.2
2030	29	MLB	HOU	20	20	109	459	82	47	16	17.9%	10.2%	3.5%	5.15	5.17	+0.2
2031	30	MLB	HOU	19	19	105	445	79	46	16	17.7%	10.3%	3.5%	5.20	5.23	+0.1
2032	31	MLB	HOU	18	18	102	429	75	45	15	17.5%	10.5%	3.6%	5.26	5.31	-0.0
2033	32	MLB	HOU	18	18	98	412	71	44	15	17.2%	10.6%	3.7%	5.34	5.39	-0.1
2034	33	MLB	HOU	17	17	93	393	66	42	15	16.9%	10.8%	3.8%	5.43	5.49	-0.3
2035	34	MLB	HOU	16	16	88	373	62	41	14	16.6%	11.0%	3.9%	5.53	5.60	-0.4
2036	35	MLB	HOU	15	15	83	352	57	39	14	16.2%	11.2%	4.0%	5.65	5.72	-0.5
2037	36	MLB	HOU	14	14	78	329	58	35	13	17.7%	10.7%	4.1%	5.61	5.59	-0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			128	80	485	2025	341	148	63	16.8%	7.3%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—			53	33	200	834	141	61	26	16.8%	7.3%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Urias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	16.5%	10.9%	3.5%	—	5.18	17.7%	7.4%	330	-0.20	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	96
Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	95
Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP-	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	4.93	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.16	4.10	218	94
Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	90
Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP-	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	240	88
Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	88
Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP-	4.96	15.2%	11.2%	3.1%	.322	4.60	15.7%	7.4%	205	-0.36	4.07	501	88
Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.05	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.27	3.05	176	88
Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	87
Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	15.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.306	5.12	14.4%	3.5%	146	+0.66	3.37	353	87
Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP-	4.93	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.286	5.22	16.8%	4.4%	61	+0.29	4.24	367	87
Allen Webster R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	25	SP-	5.16	14.0%	9.1%	3.8%	.356	5.73	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.57	4.61	177	86
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	20.2%	12.1%	3.6%	.284	3.50	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.50	368	86
Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	86
Forrest Snow R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP-	5.10	16.1%	8.2%	4.2%	.263	4.13	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.97	3.03	406	86
J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	86
Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.30	3.27	339	86
Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	25	SP-	4.34	14.0%	7.5%	2.7%	.307	4.41	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.07	4.34	219	85
Jarrod Cande R 2025 · 5.43 FIP	24	SP-	5.43	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	292	85
Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	25	SP-	4.39	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.23	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.16	3.32	252	85

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.