Manuel Urias — OGILVIE

Manuel Urias P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 243 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%14.0%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	11	60	250	44	11	0	92%	5.0	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	0.0%	1.95	2.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	11	60	250	44	11	0	92%	5.0	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	0.0%	1.95	2.18	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	13	61	225	55	8	3	100%	4.7	16.6%	4.4%	12.2%	1.9%	1.48	3.28	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	13	61	225	55	8	3	100%	4.7	24.4%	3.6%	20.9%	1.3%	1.48	2.33	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	14	14	54	214	63	6	1	100%	3.9	20.0%	3.5%	16.5%	0.6%	1.82	2.18	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	14	14	54	214	63	6	1	100%	3.9	29.4%	2.8%	26.6%	0.5%	1.82	1.35	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	43	177	45	10	2	50%	3.1	16.3%	7.1%	9.2%	1.9%	3.77	3.64	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	43	177	45	10	2	50%	3.1	25.4%	5.6%	19.8%	1.1%	3.77	2.31	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	21%	2.3	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.9%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	21%	2.3	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.9%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	5	56	233	70	18	7	21%	2.3	30.0%	7.7%	22.3%	3.0%	4.15	3.19	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.5%	6.2%	6.19	6.07	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.5%	6.2%	6.19	6.07	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	12	105	466	107	33	25	48%	4.2	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	5.4%	6.19	5.11	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	14.7%	9.8%	4.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	14.7%	9.8%	4.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.98	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	106	460	84	41	14	69%	4.1	18.3%	8.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	HOU	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	14.0%	10.8%	3.2%	3.5%	5.61	5.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	95	403	63	42	14	100%	6.0	15.5%	10.4%	5.1%	3.5%	5.43	5.40	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	94	397	64	41	14	100%	5.9	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.35	5.35	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	385	62	40	14	100%	6.1	16.2%	10.3%	5.9%	3.6%	5.35	5.38	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	368	59	39	14	100%	6.2	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.7%	5.42	5.48	-0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	82	346	54	37	14	100%	5.9	15.7%	10.8%	5.0%	3.9%	5.56	5.66	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	42	177	28	18	6	100%	6.0	15.5%	10.4%	5.1%	3.5%	5.43	5.40	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	60	253	41	26	9	100%	6.0	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.35	5.35	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	69	291	47	30	10	100%	6.3	16.2%	10.3%	5.9%	3.6%	5.35	5.38	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	48	31	11	100%	5.9	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.7%	5.42	5.48	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	47	32	12	100%	5.8	15.7%	10.8%	5.0%	3.9%	5.56	5.66	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	312	1316	210	138	48	100%	6.0	15.9%	10.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.42	5.08	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	89	31	100%	6.0	15.9%	10.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.42	5.08	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		128	80	485	2025	341	148	63	62%	3.8	16.8%	7.3%	9.5%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	33	200	834	140	61	26	62%	3.8	16.8%	7.3%	9.5%	3.1%	3.82	4.31	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Urias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	14.0%	10.8%	3.5%	—	5.38	15.9%	5.6%	281	-0.23	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	84
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	81
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	81
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	80
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	80
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	80
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	79
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	79
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	78
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	78
Matt Solter R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	16.0%	11.0%	2.5%	.309	3.82	16.9%	4.3%	66	-0.66	3.82	224	78
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	78
Noah Skirrow R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	13.8%	10.0%	4.3%	.330	4.77	11.7%	0.0%	95	-0.79	3.97	371	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	87	15.6%	10.5%	1.40	5.44
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09