Manuel Urias
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 243 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.58
FIP5.58
K%14.0%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%2.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 12 | 11 | 60 | 250 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 92% | 5.0 | 12.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.95 | 2.79 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 12 | 11 | 60 | 250 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 92% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 4.4% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 1.95 | 2.18 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 13 | 13 | 61 | 225 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 4.4% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 1.48 | 3.28 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 13 | 13 | 61 | 225 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.4% | 3.6% | 20.9% | 1.3% | 1.48 | 2.33 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 14 | 14 | 54 | 214 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 3.5% | 16.5% | 0.5% | 1.82 | 2.15 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 14 | 14 | 54 | 214 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | 29.4% | 2.8% | 26.6% | 0.5% | 1.82 | 1.35 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 7 | 43 | 177 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 50% | 3.1 | 16.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 3.71 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 7 | 43 | 177 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 50% | 3.1 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 19.8% | 1.1% | 3.77 | 2.31 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 5 | 56 | 233 | 70 | 18 | 7 | 21% | 2.3 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.15 | 4.55 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 5 | 56 | 233 | 70 | 18 | 7 | 21% | 2.3 | 30.0% | 7.7% | 22.3% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 12 | 105 | 466 | 107 | 33 | 25 | 48% | 4.2 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 6.19 | 5.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 12 | 105 | 466 | 107 | 33 | 25 | 48% | 4.2 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 5.4% | 6.19 | 5.11 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 106 | 460 | 84 | 41 | 14 | 69% | 4.1 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 106 | 460 | 84 | 41 | 14 | 69% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 41 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 47 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 69 | 293 | 47 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.34 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 47 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.34 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.34 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 35 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.34 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 126 | 530 | 86 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.36 | 4.99 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 91 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.36 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 80 | 485 | 2025 | 341 | 148 | 60 | 62% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.24 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 33 | 200 | 834 | 140 | 61 | 25 | 62% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Urias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 14.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | — | 5.37 | 16.1% | 5.3% | 207 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 85 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 84 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 83 |
| Jake Dunning R 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 83 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 83 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .276 | 5.13 | 25.9% | 13.3% | 40 | +0.72 | 4.13 | 405 | 82 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 81 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 80 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 80 |
| Alec Baker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.18 | 14.1% | 3.7% | 44 | +1.20 | 3.80 | 205 | 80 |
| Boone Whiting R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 80 |
| Matt Solter R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.60 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.94 | 16.9% | 4.3% | 66 | -0.66 | 3.94 | 224 | 79 |
| Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 79 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 78 |
| Marco Camarena R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 78 |
| Lauro Ramirez R 2026 · 6.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.21 | 9.5% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .382 | 5.19 | 7.2% | -3.4% | 90 | -1.02 | 5.19 | 140 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
| William Fleming R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .337 | 4.39 | 14.7% | 6.3% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.92 | 438 | 78 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.64 | 14.6% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .330 | 4.64 | 11.7% | 0.0% | 95 | -1.00 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 1.33 | 5.42 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |