Chase Burns
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 2.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8777vR 68
ERA3.45
FIP3.07
K%31.1%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%23.0%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.8
Whiff%
p9031.7%
K%
p8528.6%
xwOBA vs
p860.277
SL+5.1 (37%)
FB+1.3 (57%)
CH-1.2 (6%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 156 | 29 | 10 | 81% | 4.2 | 32.9% | 6.0% | 26.9% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 2.41 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 156 | 29 | 10 | 81% | 4.2 | 36.3% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 2.23 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 18 | 18 | 103 | 413 | 118 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 2.9% | 2.54 | 3.42 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 90 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 31.1% | 8.1% | 23.0% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.07 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 89 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 31.1% | 8.1% | 23.0% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 3.11 | +1.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 171 | 702 | 208 | 60 | 20 | — | — | 29.6% | 8.6% | 21.0% | 2.9% | 2.91 | 3.28 | +4.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 171 | 722 | 208 | 60 | 21 | — | — | 28.8% | 8.4% | 20.4% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 3.29 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 167 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 32.6% | 7.8% | 24.7% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 3.28 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 141 | 596 | 197 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 33.0% | 7.7% | 25.2% | 2.8% | 3.32 | 3.22 | +3.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 153 | 647 | 215 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 33.2% | 7.7% | 25.5% | 2.8% | 3.25 | 3.20 | +3.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 217 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.2% | 7.8% | 25.4% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.24 | +3.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 216 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 3.32 | +3.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 148 | 624 | 203 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 32.5% | 8.1% | 24.3% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 3.48 | +3.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 186 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.8% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 3.3% | 3.58 | 3.69 | +2.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 170 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 22.2% | 3.5% | 3.79 | 3.92 | +2.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 153 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 21.0% | 3.8% | 4.02 | 4.18 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 136 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 100 | 423 | 120 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.4% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 4.4% | 4.57 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 159 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 32.6% | 7.8% | 24.7% | 2.9% | 3.51 | 3.32 | +2.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 134 | 566 | 186 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 33.0% | 7.7% | 25.2% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 3.26 | +3.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 204 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 33.2% | 7.7% | 25.5% | 2.9% | 3.29 | 3.24 | +3.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 206 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 33.2% | 7.8% | 25.4% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.28 | +3.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 205 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 33.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | 3.1% | 3.33 | 3.36 | +3.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 193 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 32.5% | 8.1% | 24.3% | 3.2% | 3.46 | 3.53 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 177 | 47 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.8% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +2.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 161 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 3.84 | 3.97 | +2.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 145 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 4.08 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 129 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 4.2% | 4.34 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 109 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.4% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 4.5% | 4.64 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 277 | 272 | 1609 | 6777 | 2150 | 569 | 223 | 98% | 5.8 | 31.7% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 3.3% | 3.60 | 3.29 | +39.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 843 | 267 | 71 | 28 | 98% | 5.8 | 31.7% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 3.3% | 3.60 | 3.29 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 39 | 212 | 843 | 259 | 63 | 22 | 89% | 4.8 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 2.7% | 2.72 | 2.90 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 795 | 245 | 59 | 21 | 89% | 4.8 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 2.7% | 2.72 | 2.90 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Burns (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.83 | 36.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | — | 3.23 | 32.9% | 25.2% | 416 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.94 | 29.1% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.94 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 202 | +1.00 | 1.95 | 230 | 78 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.52 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.23 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 78 |
| José Fernández R 2026 · 2.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.35 | 28.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | .346 | 2.07 | 34.3% | 27.7% | 182 | -0.28 | 2.07 | 267 | 71 |
| Nolan Perry R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.24 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 136 | 69 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.20 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.25 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 435 | +1.05 | 1.21 | 660 | 68 |
| Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 2.73 | 32.2% | 20.3% | 147 | -0.78 | 1.92 | 309 | 67 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2028 · 2.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 2.55 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .303 | 3.04 | 27.6% | 20.2% | 284 | +0.49 | 2.55 | 374 | 67 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.43 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .238 | 3.89 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 398 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 626 | 66 |
| James Kaprielian R 2025 · 3.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.03 | 26.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.07 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 64 | +1.04 | 3.03 | 446 | 65 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.70 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .277 | 4.84 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 119 | +1.14 | 3.70 | 776 | 65 |
| José De León R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 26.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .258 | 3.26 | 26.9% | 13.5% | 78 | -0.53 | 3.14 | 445 | 65 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 65 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .329 | 4.35 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 193 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 387 | 65 |
| Spencer Howard R 2026 · 2.29 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.29 | 27.4% | 6.3% | 1.3% | .250 | 4.50 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 194 | +2.21 | 2.29 | 484 | 65 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 64 |
| Shane Baz R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.76 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .287 | 4.09 | 23.5% | 14.0% | 285 | +0.33 | 2.81 | 673 | 64 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.28 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 2.0% | .295 | 4.56 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 360 | +1.28 | 3.28 | 538 | 62 |
| Tyler Ivey R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.62 | 26.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .225 | 5.89 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 24 | +2.27 | 2.96 | 304 | 62 |
| Jared Jones R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.82 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | .278 | 3.69 | 27.1% | 19.5% | 35 | -0.13 | 3.54 | 472 | 62 |
| Nick Frasso R 2026 · 2.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.60 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 1.1% | .265 | 3.92 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 170 | +1.32 | 2.60 | 248 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 130 | 32.1% | 8.3% | 1.25 | 3.58 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |