Chase Burns — OGILVIE

Chase Burns P Cincinnati Reds

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 4.4 · 2029

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 151 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 74

ERA3.22

FIP3.24

K%32.6%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%24.7%

ROS IP151

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6570

CTRL5560

CMD5560

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9032.0%

p8929.4%

xwOBA vs

p840.279

SL+5.1 (39%)

FB+1.3 (56%)

CH-1.2 (5%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Ext	$8M	+2.6	$21M	+$13M
2028	Ext	$13M	+3.5	$32M	+$21M
2029	Ext	$17M	+3.8	$35M	+$21M
2030	Ext	$19M	+3.8	$32M	+$18M
2031	Ext	$21M	+3.6	$27M	+$13M
2032	Ext	$24M	+3.0	$18M	+$4M
Totals		$102M		$166M	+$91M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+3.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+3.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	36.3%	6.7%	29.5%	2.3%	2.88	2.23	+3.7
2026	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.5%	2.86	3.12	+3.4
2026	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.5%	2.86	3.12	+3.4
2026	23	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.7%	2.86	3.22	+3.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	37	198	818	252	72	22	88%	4.7	30.8%	8.8%	22.0%	2.7%	3.23	3.09	+4.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	27	27	151	638	208	50	18	100%	5.6	32.6%	7.9%	24.7%	2.8%	3.22	3.24	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	171	722	238	54	20	100%	5.9	32.9%	7.5%	25.4%	2.7%	3.18	3.16	+3.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	183	773	256	58	21	100%	5.9	33.1%	7.5%	25.7%	2.7%	3.15	3.13	+4.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	184	779	258	59	22	100%	5.9	33.1%	7.6%	25.6%	2.8%	3.16	3.17	+4.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	184	779	257	60	22	100%	5.9	33.0%	7.7%	25.3%	2.9%	3.22	3.25	+3.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	176	744	241	59	23	100%	6.1	32.4%	7.9%	24.5%	3.0%	3.34	3.42	+3.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	28	28	166	699	222	58	23	100%	5.9	31.7%	8.2%	23.5%	3.2%	3.51	3.62	+2.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	154	651	202	56	23	100%	5.9	31.0%	8.6%	22.4%	3.5%	3.72	3.85	+1.9
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	143	603	182	54	22	100%	5.9	30.2%	9.0%	21.2%	3.7%	3.95	4.11	+1.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	131	553	162	52	22	100%	6.0	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	4.0%	4.21	4.39	+0.8
2037	34	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	119	503	143	50	22	100%	6.0	28.4%	9.9%	18.5%	4.3%	4.50	4.69	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	163	688	227	52	20	100%	5.8	32.9%	7.5%	25.4%	3.0%	3.30	3.28	+3.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	174	735	244	55	22	100%	6.0	33.1%	7.5%	25.7%	3.0%	3.27	3.25	+3.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	175	739	245	56	22	100%	6.0	33.1%	7.6%	25.6%	3.0%	3.28	3.29	+3.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	175	739	244	57	23	100%	6.0	33.0%	7.7%	25.3%	3.1%	3.35	3.38	+3.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	167	705	229	56	23	100%	6.0	32.4%	7.9%	24.5%	3.3%	3.47	3.55	+3.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	157	663	210	55	23	100%	6.0	31.7%	8.2%	23.5%	3.5%	3.65	3.76	+2.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	147	621	192	53	23	100%	6.1	31.0%	8.6%	22.4%	3.7%	3.87	4.00	+1.9
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	136	574	173	52	23	100%	5.9	30.2%	9.0%	21.2%	4.0%	4.11	4.27	+1.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	CIN	21	21	124	524	154	49	23	100%	5.9	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	4.3%	4.39	4.57	+0.7
2037	34	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	108	456	130	45	21	100%	6.0	28.4%	9.9%	18.5%	4.6%	4.69	4.88	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	292	1723	7260	2298	602	246	98%	5.8	31.7%	8.3%	23.4%	3.4%	3.62	3.33	+33.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	843	267	70	29	98%	5.8	31.7%	8.3%	23.4%	3.4%	3.62	3.33	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		55	50	264	1060	326	82	26	91%	4.8	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	2.5%	2.87	2.83	+29.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	804	248	62	20	91%	4.8	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	2.5%	2.87	2.83	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.24	32.6%	7.9%	2.8%	—	3.15	33.1%	25.6%	539	-0.09	—	—	—
Paul Skenes R 2024 · 2.12 FIP	22	SP	2.12	33.7%	6.3%	1.9%	.283	2.73	28.8%	22.5%	362	+0.61	2.12	522	69
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	68
Spencer Strider R 2023 · 2.52 FIP	24	SP	2.52	36.8%	7.5%	2.9%	.308	4.23	26.5%	16.5%	178	+1.71	1.65	589	66
Jon Gray R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	26.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.299	3.45	24.1%	16.9%	433	+0.30	2.93	1,345	63
José Berríos R 2018 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	25.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.263	3.45	24.7%	18.2%	455	-0.18	3.06	1,889	62
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	61
Stephen Strasburg R 2012 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	30.2%	7.2%	2.3%	.307	2.85	27.7%	22.0%	525	+0.13	1.08	1,460	60
Vince Velasquez R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SP	3.73	27.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.323	4.16	24.6%	15.6%	336	+0.43	3.26	964	60
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	491	60
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	60
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	60
Brandon Beachy R 2011 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	28.6%	6.3%	2.9%	.295	3.76	20.7%	13.4%	111	+0.68	1.97	364	60
Walker Buehler R 2018 · 2.67 FIP	24	SP	2.67	27.7%	6.8%	1.9%	.247	2.93	27.6%	21.8%	427	+0.26	2.67	1,118	60
Gavin Williams R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	25.8%	10.0%	2.5%	.252	3.77	28.2%	18.3%	440	+0.22	3.39	697	60
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	60
Spencer Arrighetti R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	27.1%	10.3%	3.4%	.315	4.78	21.7%	9.1%	166	+0.79	3.89	543	59
Logan Gilbert R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	.286	3.41	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.04	1,156	59
Hunter Gaddis R 2022 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	26.8%	9.0%	4.0%	.264	4.08	20.7%	13.8%	258	-0.09	2.48	554	59
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	59
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.8	151	31.7%	8.3%	1.21	3.48
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74