Chase Burns

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 3.5 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX4 levels	26	21	109	2.88	2.23	36.3%	6.7%	4.4	K 32.9% · BB 6.0% · FIP 2.40
2026	23	MLBCIN	29	29	154	2.86	3.22	29.4%	8.9%	4.2
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	25	25	142	3.24	3.26	32.5%	8.0%	3.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBCIN	23	23	135	3.32	3.30	32.9%	7.7%	3.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCIN	22	22	135	3.29	3.28	33.1%	7.6%	3.8

Last 2 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 11.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2032Service1.564First FA2033

2027Ext$8M2028Ext$13M2029Ext$17M2030Ext$19M2031Ext$21M2032Ext$24M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%89

xwOBA vs84

Form3.68 ERA (proj 3.24) · K 33.3% (proj 32.5%) · BB 11.1% (proj 8.0%) · last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsPaul Skenes (age 22) · Luis Severino (age 24) · Spencer Strider (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.24

FIP3.26

K%32.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%24.5%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$66M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9032.0%

p8929.4%

xwOBA vs

p840.279

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$8M	+3.8	$40M	+$32M
2028	Ext	$13M	+3.7	$36M	+$24M
2029	Ext	$17M	+3.8	$35M	+$21M
2030	Ext	$19M	+3.5	$28M	+$14M
2031	Ext	$21M	+3.3	$23M	+$10M
2032	Ext	$24M	+2.9	$17M	+$3M
Totals		$102M		$179M	+$104M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+4.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+4.1
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	36.3%	6.7%	29.5%	2.3%	2.88	2.23	+4.4
2026	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.5%	2.86	3.12	+4.4
2026	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.5%	2.86	3.12	+4.4
2026	23	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	154	630	185	56	17	100%	5.3	29.4%	8.9%	20.5%	2.7%	2.86	3.22	+4.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	37	198	818	252	72	22	88%	4.7	30.8%	8.8%	22.0%	2.7%	3.23	3.09	+5.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	25	25	142	600	195	48	17	100%	5.7	32.5%	8.0%	24.5%	2.8%	3.24	3.26	+3.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	142	598	197	46	16	100%	5.9	32.9%	7.7%	25.2%	2.7%	3.20	3.18	+3.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	142	598	198	46	16	100%	5.9	33.1%	7.6%	25.4%	2.7%	3.17	3.16	+3.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	136	572	189	44	16	100%	5.9	33.1%	7.7%	25.4%	2.8%	3.19	3.20	+3.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	134	564	186	44	16	100%	6.1	33.0%	7.9%	25.1%	2.9%	3.24	3.28	+3.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	126	532	172	43	16	100%	6.0	32.4%	8.1%	24.3%	3.0%	3.36	3.44	+3.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	116	488	154	41	16	100%	6.1	31.7%	8.4%	23.3%	3.2%	3.53	3.65	+2.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	102	433	134	38	15	100%	6.0	30.9%	8.8%	22.2%	3.5%	3.74	3.88	+1.9
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	87	366	110	33	14	100%	6.2	30.1%	9.2%	21.0%	3.7%	3.98	4.13	+1.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	288	84	28	11	100%	6.2	29.3%	9.6%	19.7%	4.0%	4.24	4.41	+0.8
2037	34	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	206	58	21	9	100%	6.1	28.4%	10.1%	18.3%	4.3%	4.53	4.72	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	135	570	187	44	17	100%	5.9	32.9%	7.7%	25.2%	3.0%	3.32	3.30	+3.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	135	570	189	44	17	100%	6.1	33.1%	7.6%	25.4%	3.0%	3.29	3.28	+3.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	129	545	180	42	16	100%	5.9	33.1%	7.7%	25.4%	3.0%	3.31	3.32	+3.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	21	21	127	536	177	42	17	100%	6.0	33.0%	7.9%	25.1%	3.1%	3.37	3.41	+3.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	120	507	164	41	17	100%	6.0	32.4%	8.1%	24.3%	3.3%	3.49	3.57	+2.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	110	464	147	39	16	100%	6.1	31.7%	8.4%	23.3%	3.5%	3.67	3.79	+2.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	16	16	97	410	127	36	15	100%	6.1	30.9%	8.8%	22.2%	3.7%	3.89	4.03	+1.8
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	82	346	104	32	14	100%	5.9	30.1%	9.2%	21.0%	4.0%	4.14	4.29	+1.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	80	26	12	100%	5.9	29.3%	9.6%	19.7%	4.3%	4.42	4.59	+0.8
2037	34	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	53	19	9	100%	6.3	28.4%	10.1%	18.3%	4.6%	4.72	4.91	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		216	211	1240	5221	1658	436	171	98%	5.7	31.8%	8.4%	23.4%	3.3%	3.56	3.28	+32.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	842	267	70	28	98%	5.7	31.8%	8.4%	23.4%	3.3%	3.56	3.28	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		55	50	264	1060	326	82	26	91%	4.8	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	2.5%	2.87	2.83	+30.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	804	248	62	20	91%	4.8	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	2.5%	2.87	2.83	+4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 42 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.26 (+0.81)K% 36.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.42%	—	×0.810	29.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.65%	—	×1.100	2.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.021	×1.200	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 1.63 → 1.88 (+0.25)K% 30.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.860	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.901	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.63 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 12 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.54 (+1.35)K% 44.4% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.770	34.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.124	×1.250	4.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.18	33.0%	25.3%	419	-0.08	—	—	—
Paul Skenes R 2024 · 2.12 FIP	22	SP	2.12	33.7%	6.3%	1.9%	.283	2.73	28.8%	22.5%	362	+0.61	2.12	522	69
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	68
Spencer Strider R 2023 · 2.52 FIP	24	SP	2.52	36.8%	7.5%	2.9%	.308	4.23	26.5%	16.5%	178	+1.71	1.65	589	66
Jon Gray R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	26.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.299	3.45	24.1%	16.9%	433	+0.30	2.93	1,345	63
José Berríos R 2018 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	25.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.263	3.45	24.7%	18.2%	455	-0.18	3.06	1,889	63
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	61
Vince Velasquez R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SP	3.73	27.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.323	4.16	24.6%	15.6%	336	+0.43	3.26	964	61
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	61
Stephen Strasburg R 2012 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	30.2%	7.2%	2.3%	.307	2.85	27.7%	22.0%	525	+0.13	1.08	1,460	60
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	60
Brandon Beachy R 2011 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	28.6%	6.3%	2.9%	.295	3.76	20.7%	13.4%	111	+0.68	1.97	364	60
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	491	60
Gavin Williams R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	25.8%	10.0%	2.5%	.252	3.77	28.2%	18.3%	440	+0.22	3.39	697	60
Walker Buehler R 2018 · 2.67 FIP	24	SP	2.67	27.7%	6.8%	1.9%	.247	2.93	27.6%	21.8%	427	+0.26	2.67	1,118	60
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	60
Spencer Arrighetti R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	27.1%	10.3%	3.4%	.315	4.78	21.7%	9.1%	166	+0.79	3.89	543	60
Hunter Gaddis R 2022 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	26.8%	9.0%	4.0%	.264	4.08	20.7%	13.8%	258	-0.09	2.48	554	59
Logan Gilbert R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	.286	3.41	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.04	1,156	59
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	59
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	111	31.8%	8.3%	1.18	3.43
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*