Chase Burns — OGILVIE

Chase Burns P Cincinnati Reds

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 5.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION148 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8678vR 70

ERA3.36

FIP2.95

K%31.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%23.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$77M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF7070

CTRL5055

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9031.6%

p8829.2%

xwOBA vs

p870.276

SL+5.1 (39%)

FB+1.3 (56%)

CH-1.2 (5%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Ext	$8M	+3.6	$34M	+$27M
2028	Ext	$13M	+4.0	$38M	+$27M
2029	Ext	$17M	+4.0	$35M	+$23M
2030	Ext	$19M	+3.8	$30M	+$17M
2031	Ext	$21M	+3.6	$25M	+$13M
2032	Ext	$24M	+3.1	$18M	+$5M
Totals		$102M		$181M	+$113M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+3.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	32.9%	6.0%	26.9%	2.4%	2.88	2.40	+3.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	21	109	430	156	29	10	81%	4.2	36.3%	6.7%	29.5%	2.3%	2.88	2.23	+3.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	35	192	790	243	67	20	88%	4.8	30.8%	8.5%	22.3%	2.5%	3.15	2.97	+4.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	27	27	148	602	176	51	15	100%	5.5	29.2%	8.5%	20.8%	2.3%	2.73	2.97	+3.6
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	27	27	148	602	176	51	15	100%	5.5	29.2%	8.5%	20.8%	2.3%	2.73	2.97	+3.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	MLB RAW	CIN	27	27	148	602	176	51	15	100%	5.5	29.2%	8.5%	20.8%	2.5%	2.73	3.07	+3.4
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	CIN	27	27	148	602	176	51	15	100%	5.5	29.2%	8.5%	20.8%	2.5%	2.73	3.07	+3.4
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CIN	3	3	14	61	19	5	2	100%	4.8	31.0%	7.9%	23.1%	2.7%	3.36	2.95	+0.4
ROS	23	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	14	59	18	5	2	100%	4.7	31.0%	7.9%	23.1%	2.9%	3.48	3.07	+0.3
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	163	663	195	56	17	—	—	29.4%	8.4%	21.0%	2.5%	2.79	2.97	+4.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	163	687	195	56	17	—	—	28.4%	8.1%	20.2%	2.4%	2.80	3.07	+4.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	175	738	238	56	19	100%	5.6	32.2%	7.6%	24.7%	2.6%	3.35	3.14	+3.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	32	32	185	781	255	58	20	100%	5.8	32.6%	7.4%	25.2%	2.6%	3.19	3.09	+4.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	31	31	185	781	256	58	20	100%	6.0	32.8%	7.4%	25.4%	2.6%	3.11	3.06	+4.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	180	760	249	57	20	100%	6.0	32.8%	7.5%	25.4%	2.6%	3.10	3.10	+4.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	30	30	180	760	248	58	21	100%	6.0	32.7%	7.6%	25.1%	2.7%	3.15	3.19	+3.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	172	726	233	57	21	100%	5.9	32.1%	7.8%	24.3%	2.9%	3.27	3.35	+3.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	162	682	214	56	21	100%	6.0	31.4%	8.1%	23.3%	3.1%	3.44	3.55	+2.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	151	636	195	54	21	100%	6.0	30.6%	8.5%	22.2%	3.3%	3.65	3.79	+2.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	139	589	176	52	21	100%	6.1	29.8%	8.9%	21.0%	3.6%	3.88	4.04	+1.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	128	540	157	50	21	100%	6.1	29.0%	9.3%	19.7%	3.8%	4.14	4.32	+0.9
2037	34	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	116	491	138	48	20	100%	6.1	28.1%	9.8%	18.3%	4.1%	4.43	4.62	+0.4
2038	35	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	104	441	120	46	20	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	4.5%	4.75	4.96	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30	30	166	701	226	53	20	100%	5.5	32.2%	7.6%	24.7%	2.8%	3.46	3.25	+3.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	30	30	176	743	242	55	21	100%	5.9	32.6%	7.4%	25.2%	2.8%	3.30	3.20	+4.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	29	29	176	743	244	55	21	100%	6.1	32.8%	7.4%	25.4%	2.8%	3.22	3.17	+4.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	171	722	237	54	21	100%	6.1	32.8%	7.5%	25.4%	2.8%	3.22	3.22	+3.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	28	28	171	722	236	55	21	100%	6.1	32.7%	7.6%	25.1%	3.0%	3.27	3.31	+3.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	27	27	163	688	221	54	21	100%	6.0	32.1%	7.8%	24.3%	3.1%	3.40	3.48	+3.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	154	650	204	53	22	100%	5.9	31.4%	8.1%	23.3%	3.3%	3.58	3.69	+2.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	143	604	185	51	22	100%	6.0	30.6%	8.5%	22.2%	3.6%	3.80	3.94	+1.9
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	132	557	166	50	21	100%	6.0	29.8%	8.9%	21.0%	3.8%	4.04	4.20	+1.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	122	515	149	48	21	100%	6.1	29.0%	9.3%	19.7%	4.1%	4.31	4.49	+0.8
2037	34	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	105	443	125	44	20	100%	5.8	28.1%	9.8%	18.3%	4.5%	4.61	4.80	+0.3
2038	35	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	90	380	103	39	18	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	4.8%	4.95	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		340	335	1975	8319	2600	682	271	99%	5.8	31.3%	8.2%	23.1%	3.3%	3.61	3.28	+39.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	842	263	69	27	99%	5.8	31.3%	8.2%	23.1%	3.3%	3.61	3.28	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		53	48	258	1032	317	77	24	91%	4.9	30.8%	7.4%	23.3%	2.3%	2.79	2.73	+35.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	801	246	60	19	91%	4.9	30.8%	7.4%	23.3%	2.3%	2.79	2.73	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.80	36.5%	6.8%	2.8%	—	3.10	32.6%	25.1%	545	+0.30	—	—	—
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	79
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	78
José Fernández R 2015 · 2.28 FIP	23	SP	2.28	28.8%	5.5%	1.7%	.346	2.06	34.3%	27.7%	182	-0.22	2.06	267	72
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	69
Louis Varland R 2021 · 3.09 FIP	23	SP	3.09	25.4%	8.3%	2.0%	.313	4.24	22.1%	14.9%	435	+1.15	1.69	684	68
Matt Brash R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	23	SP	3.46	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.76	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.70	1.91	309	67
James Kaprielian R 2016 · 2.80 FIP	22	SP	2.80	26.1%	5.3%	2.2%	.179	4.17	20.9%	14.0%	64	+1.37	2.80	446	66
Spencer Howard R 2019 · 2.33 FIP	23	SP	2.33	27.4%	6.3%	1.4%	.250	4.41	22.8%	12.9%	194	+2.08	2.33	484	66
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	66
José De León R 2016 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	26.7%	6.4%	3.6%	.258	3.33	26.9%	13.5%	78	-0.31	3.24	445	66
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	801	66
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	65
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.82	19.3%	9.9%	170	+1.22	2.60	268	65
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	64
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	64
Shane Baz R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP	3.72	28.0%	7.8%	3.6%	.287	3.96	23.3%	14.1%	285	+0.24	2.82	730	64
Carson Seymour R 2022 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	22.4%	7.8%	2.2%	.295	4.44	19.5%	9.9%	360	+1.05	3.39	572	63
Caleb Kilian R 2021 · 2.42 FIP	24	SP	2.42	23.4%	3.7%	1.5%	.277	4.03	18.5%	9.2%	283	+1.61	2.42	444	62
Robinson Piña R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP-	3.63	26.9%	8.2%	3.2%	.342	4.08	18.1%	10.2%	281	+0.45	3.24	661	62
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.9	152	31.5%	8.1%	1.19	3.51
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98