Chase Burns
P
Cincinnati Reds
+2.0
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.4 · 2029
ERA3.88
FIP3.41
xFIP3.56
SIERA3.62
K%30.3%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%22.5%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2029
K†7070
FB Velo
p9098.1
Whiff%
p9032.5%
K%
p7627.0%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SL+5.1 (38%)
FB+1.3 (55%)
CH-1.2 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 156 | 29 | 10 | 32.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 2.40 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 4 | 22 | 88 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 25.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 2.42 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 81 | 22 | 8 | 30.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 3.78 | 3.24 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 85 | 354 | 103 | 31 | 11 | 29.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 3.42 | 3.48 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 132 | 35 | 13 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.57 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 148 | 39 | 15 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.57 | +2.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 155 | 41 | 15 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.64 | 3.58 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 158 | 42 | 16 | 29.6% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.62 | 3.60 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 158 | 42 | 16 | 29.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.63 | 3.63 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 152 | 42 | 16 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 3.68 | 3.71 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 145 | 41 | 16 | 28.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 3.75 | 3.80 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 137 | 40 | 16 | 27.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 3.84 | 3.90 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 129 | 39 | 15 | 27.3% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.02 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 120 | 38 | 15 | 26.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 4.15 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 111 | 37 | 15 | 26.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 95 | 403 | 102 | 36 | 14 | 25.2% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 92 | 35 | 14 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 25 | 132 | 518 | 163 | 35 | 13 | 31.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 2.80 | 2.70 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 38 | 200 | 787 | 248 | 53 | 20 | 31.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 2.80 | 2.70 | +5.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Burns (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.29 | 32.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | — | 3.57 | 30.0% | 22.1% | 344 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.38 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .295 | 4.47 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 360 | +1.09 | 3.29 | 487 | 75 |
| Yunior Marte R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .270 | 3.54 | 22.5% | 12.5% | 117 | -0.35 | 3.34 | 618 | 74 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .362 | 2.90 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -0.78 | 2.23 | 256 | 73 |
| Drey Jameson R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 226 | +0.28 | 4.14 | 349 | 73 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.07 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .313 | 4.29 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 435 | +1.22 | 2.85 | 611 | 72 |
| Jayden Murray R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | .167 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 145 | +0.85 | 3.90 | 305 | 72 |
| Yerry Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.82 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 163 | +1.04 | 1.89 | 407 | 72 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.44 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .238 | 3.84 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 398 | +0.40 | 3.44 | 536 | 71 |
| Ryan Lobus R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 3.6% | .277 | 3.60 | 23.4% | 13.3% | 67 | -0.09 | 3.60 | 156 | 71 |
| Michael Rucker R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.23 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .298 | 4.42 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 208 | +1.19 | 3.23 | 529 | 71 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 70 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.60 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.18 | 2.60 | 155 | 70 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.18 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.84 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 891 | 70 |
| Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 2.75 | 32.2% | 20.3% | 147 | -0.73 | 1.90 | 292 | 70 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.52 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .293 | 5.37 | 11.6% | 2.7% | 93 | +1.85 | 3.52 | 175 | 70 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 70 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.2% | .277 | 4.57 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 119 | +0.92 | 3.65 | 705 | 70 |
| Walker Buehler R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 2.78 | 28.6% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .311 | 2.80 | 28.5% | 22.5% | 369 | +0.02 | 2.65 | 982 | 70 |
| Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .236 | 4.02 | 19.6% | 13.5% | 184 | +0.32 | 3.11 | 321 | 69 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 69 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.564 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.0 | $16M | +$16M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.3 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $8M | +2.4 | $21M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $14M | +2.4 | $22M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $21M | +2.4 | $22M | +$1M |
| Totals | $45M | $115M | +$70M | ||