Spencer Arrighetti
P
Houston Astros
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 186 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.19
FIP4.24
K%24.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p190.349
CT+1.0 (6%)
SL+0.7 (14%)
SI (11%)
CU (33%)
CH (7%)
FB-1.7 (40%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 14 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 40.0% | 3.6% | 36.4% | 1.8% | 2.63 | 1.18 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 14 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 40.0% | 3.6% | 36.4% | 1.8% | 2.63 | 1.27 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 107 | 474 | 152 | 55 | 9 | 63% | 4.0 | 24.9% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.98 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 107 | 474 | 152 | 55 | 9 | 63% | 4.0 | 32.1% | 11.6% | 20.5% | 1.9% | 4.72 | 2.89 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 125 | 521 | 141 | 59 | 11 | 75% | 4.5 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 125 | 521 | 141 | 59 | 11 | 75% | 4.5 | 27.1% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 4.40 | 3.40 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 153 | 669 | 181 | 72 | 21 | 97% | 4.9 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.84 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 153 | 669 | 181 | 72 | 21 | 97% | 4.9 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.93 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 207 | 42 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 207 | 42 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 5.44 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 18 | 18 | 96 | 411 | 101 | 50 | 12 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.23 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 151 | 642 | 157 | 77 | 19 | — | — | 24.4% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.23 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 137 | 577 | 157 | 77 | 19 | — | — | 27.2% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 83 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 84 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 76 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 80 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 79 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 80 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 111 | 623 | 2668 | 649 | 309 | 93 | 99% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.43 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 208 | 99 | 30 | 99% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 98 | 541 | 2337 | 579 | 274 | 65 | 82% | 4.5 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.03 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 864 | 214 | 101 | 24 | 82% | 4.5 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Arrighetti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.84 | 23.9% | 12.1% | 247 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 70 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 68 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 68 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .362 | 5.50 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.94 | 2.78 | 181 | 67 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 67 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 67 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 67 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 66 |
| Trace Bright R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 66 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 65 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 65 |
| JT Brubaker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.80 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .313 | 4.22 | 23.4% | 15.7% | 268 | +0.42 | 3.29 | 848 | 64 |
| Ben Meyer R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.32 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 4.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 387 | 64 |
| Alex Williams R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 64 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.27 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 479 | 64 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .275 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 123 | -0.00 | 3.11 | 159 | 64 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 64 |
| Luke Russo R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.72 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 213 | 64 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 81 | 24.1% | 11.7% | 1.33 | 4.79 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |