Spencer Arrighetti
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 186 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.64
FIP4.60
xFIP5.16
SIERA4.65
K%24.3%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%13.4%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†6065
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p9035.8%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
CT+1.0 (8%)
SL+0.7 (13%)
SI (11%)
CU (31%)
CH (10%)
FB-1.7 (37%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 6 | 2 | 14 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.63 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 27 | 17 | 107 | 474 | 152 | 55 | 9 | 24.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.98 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 28 | 21 | 125 | 521 | 141 | 59 | 11 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.40 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 30 | 153 | 669 | 181 | 72 | 21 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 10 | 10 | 46 | 207 | 42 | 25 | 9 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 4 | 4 | 20 | 82 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 32.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 1.33 | 1.85 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 79 | 35 | 10 | 25.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 95 | 398 | 109 | 45 | 10 | 27.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.52 | 3.61 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 92 | 35 | 10 | 27.7% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.18 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 84 | 32 | 10 | 27.6% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 75 | 29 | 9 | 27.1% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 66 | 27 | 8 | 26.6% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 26.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 25.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 24.7% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 84 | 465 | 2008 | 507 | 233 | 54 | 25.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 3.92 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 864 | 218 | 100 | 23 | 25.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 3.92 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Arrighetti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 24.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.22 | 27.5% | 17.0% | 216 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 71 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 68 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 68 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.10 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 74 | +0.12 | 3.98 | 481 | 68 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 68 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 67 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 66 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 66 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.54 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 19.8% | 14.9% | 57 | +0.34 | 3.54 | 352 | 65 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 65 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 65 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 65 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 65 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 65 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 65 |
| Kevin Herget R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.69 | 18.1% | 12.4% | 139 | +1.00 | 2.19 | 705 | 64 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 64 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.11 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 4.2% | .301 | 4.21 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.90 | 4.21 | 378 | 64 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.07 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .306 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.36 | 4.07 | 530 | 64 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.87 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 5.44 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.57 | 2.94 | 426 | 64 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1.0M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $10M | +$2M | ||