Spencer Arrighetti

Spencer Arrighetti P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 186 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 106

ERA4.43

FIP4.50

K%22.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

CT+1.0 (7%)

SL+0.7 (13%)

SI (10%)

CU (34%)

CH (7%)

FB-1.7 (39%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-3M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	14	55	22	2	1	33%	2.3	40.0%	3.6%	36.4%	1.8%	2.63	1.18	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	14	55	22	2	1	33%	2.3	40.0%	3.6%	36.4%	1.8%	2.63	1.27	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	107	474	152	55	9	63%	4.0	24.9%	13.2%	11.7%	2.4%	4.72	3.97	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	107	474	152	55	9	63%	4.0	32.1%	11.6%	20.5%	1.9%	4.72	2.89	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	125	521	141	59	11	75%	4.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.3%	4.40	3.92	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	125	521	141	59	11	75%	4.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.3%	4.40	3.92	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	125	521	141	59	11	75%	4.5	27.1%	11.3%	15.7%	2.1%	4.40	3.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	153	669	181	72	21	97%	4.9	27.1%	10.3%	16.8%	3.4%	4.40	3.99	+1.7
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	153	669	181	72	21	97%	4.9	27.1%	10.3%	16.8%	3.4%	4.40	3.99	+1.7
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	153	669	181	72	21	97%	4.9	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	3.1%	4.40	3.93	+1.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	46	207	42	25	9	100%	4.6	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	4.0%	5.44	5.22	-0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	46	207	42	25	9	100%	4.6	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	4.0%	5.44	5.22	-0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	46	207	42	25	9	100%	4.6	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	4.3%	5.44	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	54	287	1259	304	145	44	93%	4.9	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	3.5%	4.80	4.49	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	27	24	127	550	126	69	18	89%	4.7	22.2%	12.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.48	4.60	+0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	27	24	127	550	126	69	18	89%	4.7	22.2%	12.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.48	4.60	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	TOR	5	5	20	79	24	9	1	100%	4.1	30.4%	11.4%	19.0%	1.3%	1.77	2.67	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	TOR	22	19	106	471	102	60	17	86%	4.8	21.7%	12.7%	8.9%	3.6%	4.99	4.87	+0.0
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TOR	22	19	106	471	102	60	17	86%	4.8	21.7%	12.7%	8.9%	3.6%	4.99	4.87	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	10	41	9	5	1	100%	4.9	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	3.3%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	5.0	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	3.3%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	136	591	135	74	19	—	—	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	3.3%	4.47	4.60	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	116	490	135	74	19	—	—	27.6%	15.1%	12.6%	4.0%	5.26	4.85	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	140	591	134	72	21	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.99	5.03	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	140	591	133	73	21	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.6%	5.07	5.12	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	134	564	124	71	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.19	5.28	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	126	530	113	68	21	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	4.0%	5.37	5.49	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	133	562	128	68	20	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.99	5.03	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	133	562	127	69	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.6%	5.07	5.12	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	127	536	118	67	20	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.19	5.28	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	119	502	107	64	20	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	4.0%	5.37	5.49	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	141	808	3462	793	419	126	97%	5.6	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.6%	5.02	4.69	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	856	196	104	31	97%	5.6	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.6%	5.02	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		129	104	571	2476	600	286	74	81%	4.4	24.2%	11.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.52	4.15	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	867	210	100	26	81%	4.4	24.2%	11.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.52	4.15	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Arrighetti (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	24.4%	11.2%	3.3%	—	5.14	22.4%	10.1%	413	+0.47	—	—	—
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	75
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	71
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	70
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	70
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	69
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	68
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	67
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	67
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	66
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	66
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	65
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	65
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	65
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	65
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	64
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,038	64
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	5.00	25.1%	16.4%	112	+0.31	2.33	484	64
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	64
Dakota Hudson R 2020 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	20.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.188	4.22	13.7%	4.2%	290	-0.28	3.09	1,032	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	124	22.5%	12.3%	1.42	5.08
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12