Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | 7 | 5 | 17 | 66 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 71% | 2.5 | 26.8% | 5.7% | 21.1% | 4.2% | 3.12 | 3.89 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | 7 | 5 | 17 | 66 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 71% | 2.5 | 39.4% | 4.5% | 34.8% | 3.0% | 3.12 | 2.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 20 | 19 | 97 | 419 | 127 | 28 | 20 | 95% | 4.9 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 4.16 | 4.37 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 20 | 19 | 97 | 419 | 127 | 28 | 20 | 95% | 4.9 | 30.3% | 6.7% | 23.6% | 4.8% | 4.16 | 4.02 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 129 | 533 | 163 | 44 | 24 | 96% | 4.9 | 26.8% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.83 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 129 | 533 | 163 | 44 | 24 | 96% | 4.9 | 30.6% | 8.3% | 22.3% | 4.5% | 4.83 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 22 | 116 | 520 | 89 | 47 | 24 | 71% | 3.8 | 15.6% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 22 | 116 | 520 | 89 | 47 | 24 | 71% | 3.8 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.49 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 78 | 0 | 75 | 278 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 4.7% | 19.1% | 1.4% | 1.57 | 2.48 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 78 | 0 | 75 | 278 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 4.7% | 19.1% | 1.4% | 1.57 | 2.55 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 73 | 0 | 67 | 274 | 73 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 6.9% | 19.7% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 3.34 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 73 | 0 | 67 | 274 | 73 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 6.9% | 19.7% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 41 | 0 | 35 | 158 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.5% | 6.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 3.60 | 3.35 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.22 | 3.43 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.22 | 3.43 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 70 | 307 | 69 | 21 | 7 | — | — | 22.4% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.39 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 66 | 278 | 69 | 21 | 7 | — | — | 24.7% | 7.7% | 17.0% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 55 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 9 | 372 | 1547 | 342 | 100 | 47 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.70 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 5 | 200 | 831 | 184 | 54 | 25 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 276 | 71 | 536 | 2248 | 512 | 175 | 81 | 26% | 1.9 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.15 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 26 | 200 | 839 | 191 | 65 | 30 | 26% | 1.9 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Gaddis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.77 | 24.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.05 | 22.6% | 15.9% | 122 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .336 | 2.71 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -0.99 | 2.47 | 667 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 70 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .277 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | -0.06 | 2.78 | 596 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 69 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 21.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | .295 | 5.02 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 51 | +0.47 | 2.90 | 388 | 68 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 68 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.48 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 436 | 68 |
| Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 68 |
| Seth Lugo R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.93 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 3.00 | 30.9% | 25.3% | 163 | +0.07 | 2.19 | 1,320 | 68 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 70 | +1.42 | 2.30 | 523 | 68 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.68 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 1.2% | .274 | 4.12 | 29.1% | 18.9% | 136 | +1.44 | 1.75 | 526 | 68 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 67 |
| Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.92 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | .251 | 2.28 | 34.0% | 27.5% | 146 | -1.64 | 1.80 | 586 | 67 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 67 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.85 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% | .313 | 4.04 | 28.3% | 18.0% | 75 | +1.19 | 2.85 | 185 | 67 |
| Will Harris R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.48 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .190 | 2.41 | 28.0% | 22.8% | 166 | -1.07 | 2.12 | 315 | 67 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.96 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.3% | .247 | 4.39 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.43 | 2.96 | 160 | 67 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 1.14 | 3.78 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |