Paul Sewald — OGILVIE

Paul Sewald P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 219 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.67

FIP3.91

K%25.1%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%18.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

SL+2.6 (42%)

CT (1%)

FB (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	44	0	51	195	56	9	3	0%	1.2	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	1.7%	1.75	2.71	—
2015	25	AA RAW	Binghamton Mets	44	0	51	195	56	9	3	0%	1.2	28.7%	4.6%	24.1%	1.5%	1.75	2.20	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	56	0	66	278	80	19	9	0%	1.2	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	3.3%	3.29	3.67	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	56	0	66	278	80	19	9	0%	1.2	28.8%	6.8%	21.9%	3.2%	3.29	3.31	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	74	311	81	20	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	6.9%	18.2%	2.9%	4.26	3.46	+1.0
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	74	311	81	20	9	0%	1.1	26.0%	6.4%	19.6%	2.9%	4.26	3.30	+1.1
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	64	285	65	21	8	0%	1.2	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	3.2%	5.46	3.96	+0.5
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	64	285	65	21	8	0%	1.2	22.8%	7.4%	15.4%	2.8%	5.46	3.68	+0.7
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	71	297	74	17	9	0%	1.2	22.8%	6.0%	16.9%	3.3%	3.69	3.75	+0.7
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	71	297	74	17	9	0%	1.2	24.9%	5.7%	19.2%	3.0%	3.69	3.38	+1.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	5	0	6	35	2	4	1	0%	1.2	5.7%	11.4%	-5.7%	2.9%	13.50	5.63	-0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	5	0	6	35	2	4	1	0%	1.2	5.7%	11.4%	-5.7%	2.9%	13.50	6.60	-0.1
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	1	69	279	114	19	10	2%	1.1	39.4%	7.2%	32.2%	3.9%	2.87	2.82	+1.4
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	1	69	279	114	19	10	2%	1.1	40.9%	6.8%	34.1%	3.6%	2.87	2.51	+1.7
2022	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	65	0	64	242	72	13	10	0%	1.0	29.8%	5.4%	24.4%	4.2%	2.67	3.59	+0.7
2022	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	65	0	64	242	72	13	10	0%	1.0	29.8%	5.4%	24.4%	4.1%	2.67	3.49	+0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	65	0	61	249	80	23	8	0%	0.9	32.1%	9.2%	22.9%	3.4%	3.12	3.42	+0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	65	0	61	249	80	23	8	0%	0.9	32.1%	9.2%	22.9%	3.4%	3.12	3.42	+0.8
2023	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	65	0	61	249	80	23	8	0%	0.9	32.1%	9.2%	22.9%	3.2%	3.12	3.31	+0.9
2024	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	41	174	47	10	6	0%	0.9	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	3.8%	4.14	3.70	+0.4
2024	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	41	174	47	10	6	0%	0.9	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	3.8%	4.14	3.70	+0.4
2024	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	41	174	47	10	6	0%	0.9	27.0%	5.7%	21.3%	3.4%	4.14	3.44	+0.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	2	28	115	29	7	6	6%	0.9	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	5.2%	4.13	4.78	-0.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	2	28	115	29	7	6	6%	0.9	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	5.2%	4.13	4.78	-0.1
2025	35	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	2	28	115	29	7	6	6%	0.9	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	5.2%	4.13	4.55	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			438	0	445	1848	521	129	71	0%	1.0	28.2%	7.0%	21.2%	3.8%	4.22	3.70	+4.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	57	0	49	204	51	12	13	0%	0.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	6.4%	5.11	5.23	-0.4
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	57	0	49	204	51	12	13	0%	0.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	6.4%	5.11	5.23	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	MLB RAW	TOR	57	0	49	204	51	12	13	0%	0.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	6.4%	5.11	5.23	-0.4
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	TOR	57	0	49	204	51	12	13	0%	0.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	6.4%	5.11	5.23	-0.4
ROS	36	MLB MLE	TOR	4	0	4	18	5	1	1	0%	1.1	25.1%	6.7%	18.5%	3.8%	3.67	3.91	+0.0
ROS	36	MLB CTX	TOR	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	25.1%	6.7%	18.5%	3.8%	3.67	3.91	+0.0
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	54	222	56	13	14	—	—	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	6.2%	4.99	5.13	-0.3
FULL	36	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	54	226	56	13	14	—	—	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	6.0%	4.99	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	TOR	42	0	44	187	45	14	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	4.8%	4.74	4.99	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	TOR	42	0	44	186	45	14	9	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	4.8%	4.74	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		484	0	494	2054	571	144	81	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.0%	20.8%	3.9%	4.27	3.80	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	0	200	831	231	58	33	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.0%	20.8%	3.9%	4.27	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		607	3	645	2664	716	183	97	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.9%	20.0%	3.6%	3.74	3.69	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		188	1	200	826	222	57	30	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.9%	20.0%	3.6%	3.74	3.69	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Sewald (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	25.3%	7.2%	3.5%	—	4.99	24.1%	16.7%	44	+0.80	—	—	—
Tommy Hunter R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	36	SU	3.98	22.1%	4.5%	4.0%	.292	5.22	18.9%	14.2%	24	+1.24	2.78	316	78
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	78
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	75
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	72
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	70
Sergio Romo R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	36	SU	3.31	24.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.256	4.65	22.8%	15.6%	100	+1.34	1.71	371	68
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	67
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	67
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	66
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	66
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	65
David Robertson R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	36	SU	3.67	32.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.321	2.86	31.1%	21.4%	201	-0.81	2.00	494	65
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	64
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	64
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	212	62
César Valdez R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	36	SU	3.51	21.4%	5.4%	2.8%	.354	4.14	16.9%	12.3%	260	+0.63	1.91	882	62
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	62
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	60
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	24.7%	7.2%	1.59	4.32
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36