Keythel Key — OGILVIE

Keythel Key P Tri-City Dust Devils

+0.4 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2030

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.9%

IP100

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	4	3	11	42	7	3	0	—	—	—	1.64	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Angels	1	0	2	9	3	2	0	—	—	—	16.20	—	—
2023	19	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	13.7%	20.1%	2.5%	3.96	5.87	-0.5
2024	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	18.5%	15.5%	2.7%	5.36	4.98	+0.3
2025	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	18.7%	15.2%	3.2%	5.56	5.23	+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	4	0	8	36	10	7	1	—	—	—	10.57	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	LAA	18	18	100	422	88	54	13	20.8%	12.8%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	LAA	—	—	108	458	98	61	14	21.3%	13.3%	3.0%	5.41	4.65	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	LAA	23	23	124	523	113	59	16	21.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.72	+0.8
2028	24	MLB	LAA	26	26	143	603	134	63	18	22.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.54	+1.2
2029	25	MLB	LAA	28	28	157	662	149	65	19	22.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+1.5
2030	26	MLB	LAA	30	30	164	691	157	67	20	22.8%	9.7%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+1.7
2031	27	MLB	LAA	30	30	166	703	160	68	21	22.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.41	+1.7
2032	28	MLB	LAA	30	30	166	701	159	69	21	22.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.43	4.44	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	LAA	30	30	162	685	155	67	21	22.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.48	+1.5
2034	30	MLB	LAA	29	29	157	665	149	66	21	22.4%	10.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	641	142	65	20	22.2%	10.1%	3.2%	4.57	4.62	+1.2
2036	32	MLB	LAA	27	27	146	616	135	63	20	21.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.70	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	LAA	25	25	139	588	127	61	20	21.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.74	4.80	+0.8
2038	34	MLB	LAA	24	24	132	558	119	59	19	21.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.84	4.91	+0.6
2039	35	MLB	LAA	23	23	125	526	110	57	19	20.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.96	5.03	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			77	47	267	1235	222	199	34	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	5.22	5.14	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			58	35	200	925	166	149	25	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	5.22	5.14	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keythel Key (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	20.8%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.55	22.2%	11.8%	423	-0.46	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	93
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	92
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	92
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP-	5.24	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.20	24.4%	13.6%	124	-1.04	4.20	227	91
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	91
Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	90
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	90
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	89
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	26.3%	14.7%	2.7%	.297	4.47	19.0%	3.7%	211	+0.23	4.24	311	89
Patrick Reilly R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP-	4.92	23.2%	13.6%	3.7%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.92	119	89
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	89
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Daniel Eagen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	25.1%	12.6%	2.9%	.263	7.80	20.3%	9.7%	12	+3.66	4.14	129	89
Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	314	+0.35	3.71	397	88
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	88
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	88
Will Schomberg R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	88
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$15M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.4	$14M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.2	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$18M		$88M	+$70M