Keythel Key

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2438ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX4 levels	27	17	94	5.36	3.74	25.1%	13.5%	—	K 18.5% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.98
2025	21	MIX2 levels	28	17	100	5.56	4.32	24.1%	13.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 15.2% · FIP 5.23
2026	22	A+LAA	21	1	35	7.01	5.23	26.2%	16.7%	—	K 20.2% · BB 19.2% · FIP 6.28
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.55	5.55	21.5%	16.9%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBLAA	28	0	29	5.27	5.15	22.9%	14.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBLAA	48	0	50	5.02	4.89	23.8%	13.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJames McArthur (age 22) · Adrian Chaidez (age 23) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%21.5%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	4	3	11	42	7	3	0	75%	2.8	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	0.0%	1.64	2.60	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	4	3	11	42	7	3	0	75%	2.8	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	0.0%	1.64	2.65	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	1	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	1	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	77%	4.0	13.7%	20.1%	-6.4%	2.3%	3.96	5.77	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	77%	4.0	21.4%	16.7%	4.7%	1.3%	3.96	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	5.36	3.74	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	18.7%	15.2%	3.5%	3.2%	5.56	5.23	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	18.7%	15.2%	3.5%	3.2%	5.56	5.23	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	24.1%	13.7%	10.5%	2.6%	5.56	4.32	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	20.2%	19.2%	1.0%	4.5%	7.01	6.28	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	20.2%	19.2%	1.0%	4.5%	7.01	6.28	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	26.2%	16.7%	9.5%	3.6%	7.01	5.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	16.9%	4.6%	3.2%	5.55	5.55	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	89	0	93	393	90	58	12	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.24	5.12	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	93	0	98	413	98	55	13	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.99	4.86	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	99	0	104	437	106	57	14	0%	1.0	24.2%	13.0%	11.3%	3.1%	4.85	4.78	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	95	0	100	422	102	55	13	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	3.1%	4.81	4.80	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	90	0	95	401	96	52	13	0%	1.1	24.0%	13.1%	11.0%	3.2%	4.86	4.89	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	84	0	88	373	89	50	13	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	3.4%	4.95	5.02	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	76	0	80	339	79	46	12	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.6%	9.9%	3.6%	5.10	5.19	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	28	0	29	122	28	18	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.27	5.15	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	48	0	50	211	50	28	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	3.2%	5.02	4.89	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	65	0	68	287	70	37	9	0%	1.0	24.2%	13.0%	11.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.81	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	70	0	73	308	74	40	10	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.84	4.83	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	71	0	75	317	76	41	10	0%	1.1	24.0%	13.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	70	0	73	308	73	41	11	0%	1.0	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.06	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	66	0	69	291	68	40	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.6%	9.9%	3.7%	5.14	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		416	0	437	1844	440	245	61	0%	1.0	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	3.3%	4.98	4.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	112	28	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.3%	10.6%	3.3%	4.98	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		94	48	294	1367	246	224	40	51%	3.1	18.0%	16.4%	1.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.27	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	33	200	930	167	153	27	51%	3.1	18.0%	16.4%	1.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.27	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 35 IPFIP 4.96 → 6.28 (+1.32)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.770	20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.150	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 6.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 100 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.23 (+1.08)K% 24.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.770	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.20%	—	×1.150	15.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.25%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Angels · 36 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.91 (+1.45)K% 29.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.09%	—	×0.680	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.895	×1.400	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 29 IPFIP 5.27 → 6.87 (+1.60)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.740	13.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.13%	—	×1.180	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷0.882	×1.300	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 5.27 → 6.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 29 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.07 (+1.04)K% 29.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.75%	—	×0.770	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.70%	—	×1.150	18.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.916	×1.250	1.13%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Angels · 44 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.77 (+1.50)K% 20.1% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.680	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.08%	—	×1.250	20.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷0.910	×1.400	2.32%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 9 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.16 (+0.93)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Angels · 11 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.27 (+0.68)K% 16.7% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.680	11.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.250	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.904	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keythel Key (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.91	23.7%	10.0%	294	-0.64	—	—	—
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	85
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	83
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	78
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	78
Luke Anderson R 2022 · 6.08 FIP	23	SW	6.08	17.7%	14.7%	4.8%	.363	5.79	15.4%	-11.1%	34	-0.29	5.12	130	78
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	78
Yohan Ramírez R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	23	SW	4.72	18.2%	14.6%	2.4%	.243	4.16	27.6%	10.7%	172	-0.56	2.60	685	77
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	77
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.9%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	77
Danny Cody R 2021 · 6.32 FIP	24	SW	6.32	20.5%	15.0%	5.6%	.369	6.32	11.4%	-6.9%	37	+0.00	6.32	106	76
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	76
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	75
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	94	23.5%	13.8%	1.25	5.04
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56