Keythel Key — OGILVIE

Keythel Key P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%20.8%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4060

CMD2040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	4	3	11	42	7	3	0	75%	2.8	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	0.0%	1.64	2.60	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	4	3	11	42	7	3	0	75%	2.8	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	0.0%	1.64	2.65	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	1	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	1	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	16.20	3.10	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	77%	4.0	13.7%	20.1%	-6.4%	2.3%	3.96	5.77	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	77%	4.0	13.7%	20.1%	-6.4%	2.3%	3.96	5.77	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	52	234	50	39	3	77%	4.0	21.4%	16.7%	4.7%	1.3%	3.96	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	2.7%	5.36	4.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	17	94	446	112	60	8	63%	3.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	5.36	3.74	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	18.7%	15.2%	3.5%	3.2%	5.56	5.23	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	18.7%	15.2%	3.5%	3.2%	5.56	5.23	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	100	468	113	64	12	61%	3.6	24.1%	13.7%	10.5%	2.6%	5.56	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	20.2%	19.2%	1.0%	4.5%	7.01	6.28	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	20.2%	19.2%	1.0%	4.5%	7.01	6.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	21	1	35	168	44	28	6	5%	1.7	26.2%	16.7%	9.5%	3.6%	7.01	4.96	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.0%	4.8%	3.0%	5.42	5.42	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	41	195	50	32	7	—	—	25.5%	16.6%	8.9%	3.5%	6.77	6.14	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	122	0	128	539	122	75	16	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.0%	5.10	4.97	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	149	0	157	662	157	84	20	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.84	4.69	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	167	0	175	739	181	87	22	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.8%	12.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.53	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	167	0	175	739	183	86	22	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.48	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	164	0	172	728	180	86	22	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.8%	13.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.52	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	159	0	167	706	174	84	22	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	3.1%	4.57	4.60	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	152	0	160	674	165	82	22	0%	1.1	24.4%	12.1%	12.3%	3.2%	4.67	4.74	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	143	0	150	634	152	79	22	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.82	4.91	-0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	133	0	140	591	140	76	22	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.7%	5.00	5.11	-0.9
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	60	0	63	266	60	37	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.00	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	105	0	110	464	110	59	14	0%	1.0	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.72	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	135	0	142	600	146	71	18	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.8%	12.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.56	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	146	0	153	646	160	75	19	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.51	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	149	0	156	659	163	77	20	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.55	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	147	0	154	650	160	77	21	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	3.2%	4.60	4.63	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	142	0	149	629	154	76	21	0%	1.0	24.4%	12.1%	12.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	134	0	141	595	143	74	21	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.4%	11.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.95	-0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	127	0	133	562	133	72	21	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.7%	5.04	5.15	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1143	0	1200	5066	1229	618	163	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.75	4.36	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	103	27	0%	1.1	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.75	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		94	48	294	1367	246	224	40	51%	3.1	18.0%	16.4%	1.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.27	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	33	200	930	167	153	27	51%	3.1	18.0%	16.4%	1.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.27	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keythel Key (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	20.8%	16.0%	3.0%	—	4.71	23.7%	11.0%	460	-0.71	—	—	—
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	87
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	86
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	84
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	82
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	80
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	79
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	79
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	79
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	78
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	78
Kyle Johnston R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.10	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.42	3.80	395	78
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	151	24.0%	12.5%	1.21	4.77
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88