Keythel Key
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 181 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.39
FIP5.39
K%20.8%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%5.1%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 4 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 2.8 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 2.60 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 4 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 2.8 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 2.65 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 52 | 234 | 50 | 39 | 3 | 77% | 4.0 | 13.7% | 20.1% | -6.4% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 5.91 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 52 | 234 | 50 | 39 | 3 | 77% | 4.0 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 3.96 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 17 | 94 | 446 | 112 | 60 | 8 | 63% | 3.5 | 18.5% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 5.19 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 17 | 94 | 446 | 112 | 60 | 8 | 63% | 3.5 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 5.36 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 100 | 468 | 113 | 64 | 12 | 61% | 3.6 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.56 | 5.23 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 100 | 468 | 113 | 64 | 12 | 61% | 3.6 | 24.1% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 5.56 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 16 | 1 | 30 | 144 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 6% | 1.9 | 19.2% | 20.0% | -0.7% | 4.3% | 6.98 | 6.39 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 79 | 60 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.8% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 5.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 120 | 524 | 115 | 85 | 17 | — | — | 21.9% | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.78 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.8% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 121 | 0 | 127 | 538 | 122 | 74 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 149 | 0 | 157 | 661 | 157 | 82 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 167 | 0 | 175 | 739 | 181 | 86 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.52 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 167 | 0 | 175 | 739 | 183 | 85 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 164 | 0 | 172 | 728 | 180 | 85 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.51 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 159 | 0 | 167 | 706 | 174 | 83 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 152 | 0 | 160 | 674 | 165 | 81 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 143 | 0 | 150 | 634 | 152 | 78 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.91 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 104 | 0 | 109 | 460 | 109 | 57 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 135 | 0 | 142 | 600 | 146 | 70 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 146 | 0 | 153 | 646 | 160 | 74 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 149 | 0 | 156 | 659 | 163 | 76 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 147 | 0 | 154 | 650 | 160 | 76 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.57 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 142 | 0 | 149 | 629 | 154 | 75 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 134 | 0 | 141 | 595 | 143 | 73 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.88 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1016 | 0 | 1067 | 4504 | 1096 | 539 | 138 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.24 | +14.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 101 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 48 | 289 | 1343 | 240 | 221 | 41 | 54% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 33 | 200 | 929 | 166 | 153 | 29 | 54% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keythel Key (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 20.8% | 15.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.69 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 459 | -0.70 | — | — | — |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 88 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2027 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 87 |
| Grant Ford R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 86 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 85 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 83 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 83 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2028 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 82 |
| Nic Swanson R 2027 · 6.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.33 | 18.5% | 15.9% | 5.1% | .302 | 4.59 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 284 | -1.74 | 4.09 | 414 | 82 |
| Ben Casparius R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 81 |
| Blane Abeyta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 343 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 471 | 81 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Ramsey David R 2028 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 81 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 81 |
| Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.01 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 194 | -0.47 | 3.80 | 395 | 80 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 80 |
| Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 80 |
| Miguel Medrano R 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.56 | 17.7% | 15.5% | 3.6% | .299 | 6.01 | 18.1% | -0.5% | 50 | +0.45 | 2.73 | 232 | 79 |
| Luke Anderson R 2027 · 6.07 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.07 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 4.7% | .363 | 5.70 | 15.4% | -11.1% | 34 | -0.37 | 5.12 | 130 | 79 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 153 | 24.0% | 12.3% | 1.20 | 4.73 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |