James McArthur — OGILVIE

James McArthur P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 29 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.11

FIP4.00

K%22.3%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP78

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+0.9 (45%)

SI (36%)

CU (34%)

SL-2.6 (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	5	16	4	1	0	50%	2.5	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.78	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	5	16	4	1	0	50%	2.5	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	84	363	91	48	7	52%	3.3	18.8%	15.5%	3.3%	2.9%	4.95	5.04	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	84	363	91	48	7	52%	3.3	25.1%	13.2%	11.8%	1.9%	4.95	3.73	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	78	335	83	24	9	75%	3.9	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	2.5%	4.25	3.81	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	78	335	83	24	9	75%	3.9	24.8%	7.2%	17.6%	2.7%	4.25	3.39	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	13	13	57	260	65	26	10	100%	4.4	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	4.4%	5.05	5.19	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	13	13	57	260	65	26	10	100%	4.4	25.0%	10.0%	15.0%	3.8%	5.05	4.47	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	8	80	346	95	30	8	17%	1.7	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	2.7%	4.84	3.53	+1.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	8	80	346	95	30	8	17%	1.7	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	2.7%	4.84	3.53	+1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	8	80	346	95	30	8	17%	1.7	27.5%	8.7%	18.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.15	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.5%	4.92	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.5%	4.92	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.92	3.84	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	2	80	337	72	14	10	3%	1.1	21.4%	4.2%	17.2%	3.0%	4.84	3.45	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	2	0	2	9	2	1	1	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	16.20	—	—
YTD	29	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	2	0	2	9	2	1	1	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	16.20	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	KC	2	0	2	9	2	1	1	0%	0.8	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	16.20	8.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	70	0	74	311	68	19	10	0%	1.1	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.20	4.23	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	65	0	69	290	61	19	10	0%	1.1	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.47	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	26	0	27	114	25	7	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.20	4.23	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	34	11	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	2	145	611	131	32	19	1%	1.1	21.4%	5.2%	16.2%	3.2%	4.60	3.69	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	3	200	843	181	44	26	1%	1.1	21.4%	5.2%	16.2%	3.2%	4.60	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		165	50	362	1576	325	152	49	30%	2.2	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	28	200	870	179	84	27	30%	2.2	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.29	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James McArthur (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	22.3%	5.4%	3.1%	—	4.35	21.4%	15.0%	142	+0.35	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	75
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	74
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	73
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	73
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	73
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	178	72
Austin Pruitt R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SW	4.21	20.5%	5.5%	3.9%	.327	4.13	18.3%	14.4%	95	-0.08	2.94	819	71
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	71
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	71
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	69
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	69
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	69
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	69
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	69
James Meeker R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	28	SW	4.06	17.5%	3.3%	3.7%	.291	4.47	17.5%	7.1%	51	+0.41	2.22	220	69
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	68
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	68
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	21.7%	6.1%	1.28	4.22
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47