James McArthur
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 29
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.12
FIP4.01
K%22.5%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%16.8%
ROS IP78
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p3419.9%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB+0.9 (45%)
SI (36%)
CU (34%)
SL-2.6 (22%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 25.0% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.78 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 25.0% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 84 | 363 | 91 | 48 | 7 | 52% | 3.3 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.37 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 84 | 363 | 91 | 48 | 7 | 52% | 3.3 | 25.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 4.95 | 3.73 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 78 | 335 | 83 | 24 | 9 | 75% | 3.9 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.25 | 3.53 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 78 | 335 | 83 | 24 | 9 | 75% | 3.9 | 24.8% | 7.2% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 3.39 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 13 | 57 | 260 | 65 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.05 | 5.08 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 13 | 57 | 260 | 65 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 5.05 | 4.47 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 8 | 80 | 346 | 95 | 30 | 8 | 17% | 1.7 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 3.67 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 8 | 80 | 346 | 95 | 30 | 8 | 17% | 1.7 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 18.8% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 3.15 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 57 | 0 | 57 | 247 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 57 | 0 | 57 | 247 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 50 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 74 | 311 | 68 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 62 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 60 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 55 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 52 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 261 | 2 | 276 | 1163 | 248 | 71 | 39 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 3.91 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 52 | 28 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 50 | 361 | 1567 | 326 | 156 | 48 | 31% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.29 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 28 | 200 | 869 | 181 | 86 | 27 | 31% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James McArthur (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.48 | 21.3% | 14.4% | 206 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 72 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 71 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | .279 | 3.06 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 60 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 385 | 71 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 70 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 69 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .327 | 4.10 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.02 | 2.95 | 819 | 69 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 68 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.14 | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 26.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .280 | 3.18 | 26.6% | 19.8% | 132 | -0.46 | 2.56 | 364 | 68 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 68 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 68 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 67 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 65 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |