James McArthur
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 29
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.46
FIP4.20
xFIP3.62
SIERA3.46
K%22.2%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%14.9%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p3419.9%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB+0.9 (45%)
SI (36%)
CU (34%)
SL-2.6 (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 25 | 13 | 84 | 363 | 91 | 48 | 7 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 20 | 15 | 78 | 335 | 83 | 24 | 9 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 3.83 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 13 | 57 | 260 | 65 | 26 | 10 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 5.05 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 46 | 8 | 80 | 346 | 95 | 30 | 8 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 3.54 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 57 | 0 | 57 | 247 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | KC | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 41 | 14 | 6 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | KC | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 36 | 13 | 6 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | KC | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 33 | 13 | 6 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | KC | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 50 | 361 | 1567 | 326 | 156 | 48 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.27 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 28 | 200 | 869 | 181 | 87 | 27 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James McArthur (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.30 | 22.0% | 14.7% | 133 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 78 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 78 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 77 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 76 |
| Matt Albers R 2029 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 76 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 76 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 75 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 75 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.57 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .222 | 3.34 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.23 | 2.40 | 643 | 74 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.