James McArthur

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 30 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	46	8	80	4.84	3.15	27.5%	8.7%	1.3	K 24.5% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.48
2024	27	MLBKC	57	0	57	4.92	3.84	19.8%	4.9%	0.5
2026	29	MIX2 levels	4	0	4	7.36	7.19	12.5%	12.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 7.06
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	30	0	32	4.20	4.17	23.3%	7.6%	0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBKC	33	0	35	4.33	4.41	22.6%	8.1%	0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBKC	32	0	34	4.53	4.66	21.8%	8.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo52

xwOBA vs37

K%34

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 30) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30) · Mike Fyhrie (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.17

K%23.3%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	5	16	4	1	0	50%	2.5	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.78	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	5	16	4	1	0	50%	2.5	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	84	363	91	48	7	52%	3.3	18.8%	15.5%	3.3%	2.9%	4.95	5.04	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	84	363	91	48	7	52%	3.3	25.1%	13.2%	11.8%	1.9%	4.95	3.73	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	78	335	83	24	9	75%	3.9	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	2.5%	4.25	3.81	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	78	335	83	24	9	75%	3.9	24.8%	7.2%	17.6%	2.7%	4.25	3.39	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	13	13	57	260	65	26	10	100%	4.4	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	4.4%	5.05	5.19	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	13	13	57	260	65	26	10	100%	4.4	25.0%	10.0%	15.0%	3.8%	5.05	4.47	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	8	80	346	95	30	8	17%	1.7	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	2.7%	4.84	3.48	+1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	8	80	346	95	30	8	17%	1.7	27.5%	8.7%	18.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.15	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.5%	4.92	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.5%	4.92	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	57	0	57	247	49	12	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	4.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.92	3.84	+0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	16	2	2	1	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	7.36	7.06	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	16	2	2	1	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	7.36	7.06	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	16	2	2	1	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	7.36	7.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	2	80	337	72	14	10	3%	1.1	21.4%	4.2%	17.2%	3.0%	4.84	3.45	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	30	0	32	135	32	10	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	3.1%	4.20	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	243	55	20	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.1%	14.5%	3.3%	4.33	4.41	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	46	0	48	202	44	17	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	3.5%	4.53	4.66	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	33	12	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.1%	14.5%	3.3%	4.33	4.41	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	32	0	34	144	31	12	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	3.5%	4.53	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	2	149	629	137	38	20	1%	1.1	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.65	3.78	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	3	200	843	184	51	27	1%	1.1	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.65	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		167	50	364	1583	327	153	49	30%	2.2	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.28	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	27	200	869	179	84	27	30%	2.2	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.28	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 57 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.81 (+0.41)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.860	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×0.900	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.942	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 57 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.19 (+0.83)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.051	×1.200	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 74 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.81 (+0.32)K% 24.4% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.38%	—	×0.810	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.100	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.344	×1.200	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALakewood BlueClaws · 54 IPFIP 3.56 → 5.00 (+1.43)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.74%	—	×0.740	19.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.50%	—	×1.180	15.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.809	×1.300	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 30 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.12 (+1.12)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.770	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×1.150	14.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.949	×1.250	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James McArthur (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	23.3%	7.6%	3.1%	—	4.52	22.2%	13.9%	105	+0.35	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	71
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	70
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	69
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	68
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	68
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	67
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	67
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	67
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	67
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	67
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	66
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	66
Cristhian Martinez R 2012 · 3.09 FIP	30	SU	3.09	20.8%	4.8%	2.1%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	204	66
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	66
Gregory Infante R 2017 · 2.97 FIP	30	SU	2.97	22.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.251	4.07	22.0%	17.4%	50	+1.10	2.97	230	66
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	22.3%	7.0%	1.23	4.49
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Tom Gorman ('81-'87, 0 WAR*)	1.1	71	21.5%*	7.2%*	1.19*	5.12*