Austin Vernon — OGILVIE

Austin Vernon P FCL Rays

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 265 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%22.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP31

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	5	2	11	42	17	4	0	40%	2.3	40.5%	9.5%	31.0%	0.0%	0.79	0.89	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	5	2	11	42	17	4	0	40%	2.3	40.5%	9.5%	31.0%	0.0%	0.79	1.16	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	79	320	114	41	7	29%	3.3	26.6%	14.9%	11.6%	3.0%	2.40	4.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	7	79	320	114	41	7	29%	3.3	35.6%	12.8%	22.8%	2.2%	2.40	2.92	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	6	82	377	108	55	14	21%	2.8	22.1%	16.8%	5.3%	4.4%	6.12	5.75	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	6	82	377	108	55	14	21%	2.8	22.1%	16.8%	5.3%	4.4%	6.12	5.75	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	6	82	377	108	55	14	21%	2.8	28.6%	14.6%	14.1%	3.7%	6.12	4.69	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.0%	10.4%	1.1%	4.21	3.37	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.0%	10.4%	1.1%	4.21	3.37	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.8%	17.0%	0.9%	4.21	2.61	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	23.0%	13.5%	9.4%	2.1%	2.98	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	23.0%	13.5%	9.4%	2.1%	2.98	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	28.1%	13.6%	14.6%	2.0%	2.98	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	5	0	6	24	8	2	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	1.42	—	—
YTD	27	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	5	0	6	24	8	2	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	1.42	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	TB	3	0	4	13	4	0	0	0%	1.2	30.8%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.50	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	TB	2	0	3	11	4	2	1	0%	1.4	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	9.1%	3.38	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	29	0	30	128	29	17	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.78	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	6	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	109	18	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		141	18	278	1191	292	174	34	13%	2.0	24.5%	14.6%	10.0%	2.8%	3.85	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	13	200	856	210	125	24	13%	2.0	24.5%	14.6%	10.0%	2.8%	3.85	4.42	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Vernon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	22.5%	13.4%	2.7%	—	4.78	22.5%	9.4%	30	+0.04	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	81
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	80
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	80
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	80
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	22.5%	13.2%	1.06	4.74
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22