Austin Vernon

P FCL Rays

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 265 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AATB	46	0	51	4.21	2.61	28.8%	11.8%	—	K 23.3% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.37
2025	26	MIX2 levels	32	3	48	2.98	3.53	28.1%	13.6%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.01
2026	27	MIX2 levels	5	0	6	1.42	3.57	33.3%	8.3%	—	K 33.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.65	4.65	22.8%	12.3%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBTB	7	0	7	4.70	4.75	22.6%	12.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 3.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 70%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	5	2	11	42	17	4	0	40%	2.3	40.5%	9.5%	31.0%	0.0%	0.79	0.89	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	5	2	11	42	17	4	0	40%	2.3	40.5%	9.5%	31.0%	0.0%	0.79	1.16	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	79	320	114	41	7	29%	3.3	26.6%	14.9%	11.6%	3.0%	2.40	4.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	7	79	320	114	41	7	29%	3.3	35.6%	12.8%	22.8%	2.2%	2.40	2.92	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	6	82	377	108	55	14	21%	2.8	22.1%	16.8%	5.3%	4.4%	6.12	5.75	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	29	6	82	377	108	55	14	21%	2.8	28.6%	14.6%	14.1%	3.7%	6.12	4.69	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.0%	10.4%	1.1%	4.21	3.37	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.0%	10.4%	1.1%	4.21	3.37	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	46	0	51	229	66	27	2	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.8%	17.0%	0.9%	4.21	2.61	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	23.2%	13.5%	9.7%	2.1%	2.98	4.01	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	23.2%	13.5%	9.7%	2.1%	2.98	4.01	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	3	48	199	56	27	4	9%	1.5	28.1%	13.6%	14.6%	2.0%	2.98	3.53	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	24	8	2	1	0%	1.3	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	4.2%	1.42	3.63	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	24	8	2	1	0%	1.3	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	4.2%	1.42	3.63	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	24	8	2	1	0%	1.3	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	4.2%	1.42	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	2.8%	4.65	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	22	0	23	98	22	12	3	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.75	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	29	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	116	29	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		141	18	278	1191	293	174	34	13%	2.0	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	2.8%	3.85	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	13	200	856	210	125	24	13%	2.0	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	2.8%	3.85	4.42	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 29 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.58 (+0.93)K% 32.5% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.50%	—	×0.810	26.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.100	11.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.922	×1.200	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 19 IPFIP 4.92 → 4.66 (−0.25)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.52%	—	×0.860	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.72%	—	×0.900	15.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 51 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.37 (+0.73)K% 28.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.82%	—	×0.810	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.100	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷0.958	×1.200	1.09%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 82 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.75 (+1.18)K% 28.6% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.65%	—	×0.770	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.59%	—	×1.150	16.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.71%	÷1.066	×1.250	4.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 59 IPFIP 2.46 → 4.10 (+1.64)K% 39.6% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.57%	—	×0.740	29.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷0.943	×1.300	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 20 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.10 (+1.01)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.770	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.020	×1.250	1.36%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Rays · 11 IPFIP 0.89 → 2.28 (+1.40)K% 40.5% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.48%	—	×0.680	27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.250	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.948	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.89 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Vernon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.8%	12.3%	2.8%	—	4.75	22.6%	10.4%	23	+0.10	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	78
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	78
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	78
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	78
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	77
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	77
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	77
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.7%	12.3%	1.11	4.67
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*