Austin Vernon
P
FCL Rays
Age 27
RHP
6'8" / 265 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION6 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%23.1%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 2.3 | 40.5% | 9.5% | 31.0% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 0.89 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 2.3 | 40.5% | 9.5% | 31.0% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 1.16 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 79 | 320 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 29% | 3.3 | 26.6% | 14.9% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 2.40 | 4.47 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 79 | 320 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 29% | 3.3 | 35.6% | 12.8% | 22.8% | 2.2% | 2.40 | 2.92 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 29 | 6 | 82 | 377 | 108 | 55 | 14 | 21% | 2.8 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.12 | 5.61 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 29 | 6 | 82 | 377 | 108 | 55 | 14 | 21% | 2.8 | 28.6% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 6.12 | 4.69 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 46 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 66 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 1.1% | 4.21 | 3.40 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 46 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 66 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.9% | 4.21 | 2.61 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 48 | 199 | 56 | 27 | 4 | 9% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 2.98 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 48 | 199 | 56 | 27 | 4 | 9% | 1.5 | 28.1% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 2.98 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 5 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 38 | 156 | 38 | 18 | 4 | — | — | 24.6% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.78 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 109 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 18 | 278 | 1191 | 293 | 176 | 33 | 13% | 2.0 | 24.6% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.42 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 13 | 200 | 856 | 211 | 126 | 24 | 13% | 2.0 | 24.6% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Vernon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.61 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 30 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 81 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 80 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 80 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 79 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 156 | 79 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 79 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 79 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 79 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 79 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 31 | 23.0% | 12.3% | 1.05 | 4.56 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |