Austin Vernon
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'8" / 265 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%10.7%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.79 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 24 | 7 | 79 | 320 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 26.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 2.40 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 29 | 6 | 82 | 377 | 108 | 55 | 14 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 6.12 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 46 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 66 | 27 | 2 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 4.21 | 3.36 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 32 | 3 | 48 | 199 | 56 | 27 | 4 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 2.98 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TB | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 43 | 22 | 5 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TB | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TB | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 18 | 272 | 1167 | 285 | 174 | 33 | 24.4% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 4.45 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 13 | 200 | 858 | 210 | 128 | 24 | 24.4% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Vernon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.60 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 129 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 87 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 85 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 84 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 83 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 83 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 82 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 81 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.41 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 224 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 81 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 81 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 80 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.