Patrick Halligan

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	41	1	51	3.02	2.19	31.6%	11.8%	—	K 27.4% · BB 10.2% · FIP 2.47
2025	25	MIX2 levels	40	0	57	4.40	4.02	26.1%	10.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.44
2026	26	MIX2 levels	39	2	77	4.66	3.31	30.8%	9.1%	—	K 25.3% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	27	MLBBOS	1	0	1	4.28	4.28	25.2%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBBOS	21	0	22	4.33	4.37	24.9%	9.8%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBBOS	28	0	29	4.43	4.49	24.6%	9.9%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAustin Ross (age 27) · Simon Castro (age 27) · Trent Harris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%25.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	16	80	19	7	2	10%	1.6	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.5%	4.96	3.57	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	16	80	19	7	2	10%	1.6	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.5%	4.96	3.65	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	4	69	299	51	14	14	15%	2.6	12.6%	5.5%	7.0%	5.7%	5.45	5.86	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	4	69	299	51	14	14	15%	2.6	17.1%	4.7%	12.4%	4.7%	5.45	4.86	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	72	313	79	30	6	36%	2.6	18.8%	11.6%	7.3%	2.6%	4.02	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	10	72	313	79	30	6	36%	2.6	25.2%	9.6%	15.7%	1.9%	4.02	3.24	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	51	212	67	25	1	2%	1.2	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	0.7%	3.02	2.47	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	51	212	67	25	1	2%	1.2	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	0.7%	3.02	2.47	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	51	212	67	25	1	2%	1.2	31.6%	11.8%	19.8%	0.5%	3.02	2.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	57	253	66	27	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.44	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	57	253	66	27	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	10.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.40	4.44	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	57	253	66	27	8	0%	1.4	26.1%	10.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.02	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	77	331	102	30	10	5%	2.0	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.6%	4.66	4.14	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	77	331	102	30	10	5%	2.0	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.6%	4.66	4.14	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	77	331	102	30	10	5%	2.0	30.8%	9.1%	21.8%	3.0%	4.66	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	249	62	24	8	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.8%	15.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.37	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	52	219	54	22	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	21	0	22	93	23	9	3	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.8%	15.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.37	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	28	0	29	122	30	12	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	216	53	21	7	0%	1.0	24.7%	9.9%	14.9%	3.3%	4.39	4.06	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	82	27	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.9%	14.9%	3.3%	4.39	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		185	18	343	1488	315	140	49	10%	1.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	11	200	868	184	82	29	10%	1.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.33	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 57 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.46 (+1.01)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.37%	—	×0.810	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.96%	—	×1.100	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 21 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.27 (+0.35)K% 26.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.860	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 53 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.44 (+0.80)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.810	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.69%	—	×1.100	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.50%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 5 IPFIP 7.00 → 7.15 (+0.15)K% 7.7% → 6.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.69%	—	×0.860	6.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.23%	—	×0.900	17.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.961	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 7.00 → 7.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 45 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.47 (+0.76)K% 33.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.88%	—	×0.810	27.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.100	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷0.906	×1.200	0.72%

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 5 IPFIP 5.14 → 4.99 (−0.15)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.860	14.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.59%	—	×0.900	24.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.968	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.14 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 63 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.43 (+0.93)K% 24.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.46%	—	×0.770	18.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.150	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.022	×1.250	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMississippi Braves · 9 IPFIP 1.17 → 1.75 (+0.58)K% 31.4% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.810	25.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.100	6.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.793	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.17 → 1.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Halligan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	25.2%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.43	24.8%	14.9%	111	+0.15	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	89
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	87
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	86
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	84
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	83
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	83
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	83
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	82
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	82
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	81
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	81
John Gorman R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	23.4%	7.5%	3.5%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	141	80
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	80
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	80
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	25.0%	9.8%	1.24	4.34
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*