Cole Sulser — OGILVIE

Cole Sulser P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 36 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.42

FIP3.39

K%23.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

CT (12%)

SL (4%)

FB-1.3 (45%)

CH-1.8 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	3	64	276	70	16	2	7%	1.5	19.5%	6.9%	12.5%	1.0%	4.34	2.89	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	3	64	276	70	16	2	7%	1.5	25.4%	5.8%	19.6%	0.7%	4.34	2.07	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	269	70	26	5	0%	1.4	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	1.9%	2.70	3.52	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	63	269	70	26	5	0%	1.4	26.0%	9.7%	16.4%	1.9%	2.70	3.15	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	61	248	95	17	4	0%	1.3	31.5%	7.7%	23.8%	1.8%	3.86	2.39	—
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	61	248	95	17	4	0%	1.3	38.3%	6.9%	31.5%	1.6%	3.86	1.67	—
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	4	73	302	98	27	4	7%	1.3	28.7%	9.2%	19.5%	1.4%	2.95	2.63	+1.7
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	4	73	302	98	27	4	7%	1.3	32.5%	8.9%	23.5%	1.3%	2.95	2.24	+2.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	19	0	23	100	19	16	2	0%	1.2	19.0%	16.0%	3.0%	1.8%	5.56	4.51	+0.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	19	0	23	100	19	16	2	0%	1.2	19.0%	16.0%	3.0%	2.0%	5.56	4.69	-0.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	60	0	63	257	73	23	5	0%	1.1	28.4%	8.9%	19.5%	1.8%	2.70	2.80	+1.3
2021	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	60	0	63	257	73	23	5	0%	1.1	28.4%	8.9%	19.5%	1.9%	2.70	2.91	+1.2
2022	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	43	186	54	17	8	2%	0.9	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	4.2%	5.06	4.55	+0.0
2022	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	1	43	186	54	17	8	2%	0.9	29.0%	9.1%	19.9%	4.3%	5.06	4.20	+0.2
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	4	30	136	34	15	8	18%	1.3	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	3.1%	5.76	4.11	+0.2
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	4	30	136	34	15	8	18%	1.3	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	3.1%	5.76	4.11	+0.2
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	4	30	136	34	15	8	18%	1.3	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	5.9%	5.76	5.83	-0.4
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	60	235	60	26	6	7%	1.4	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	2.6%	1.96	3.97	+0.4
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	60	235	60	26	6	7%	1.4	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	2.6%	1.96	3.97	+0.4
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	3	60	235	60	26	6	7%	1.4	25.5%	11.1%	14.5%	2.6%	1.96	3.70	+0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	57	220	56	11	3	0%	1.2	22.8%	4.8%	18.1%	1.2%	1.57	2.42	+1.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	57	220	56	11	3	0%	1.2	22.8%	4.8%	18.1%	1.2%	1.57	2.42	+1.5
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	57	220	56	11	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	5.0%	20.5%	1.4%	1.57	2.40	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	4	221	923	229	85	24	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	2.6%	3.79	3.59	+2.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	50	2	56	241	56	15	8	4%	1.1	23.4%	5.3%	18.2%	3.4%	4.47	3.68	+0.6
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	50	2	56	241	56	15	8	4%	1.1	23.4%	5.3%	18.2%	3.4%	4.47	3.68	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	AAA RAW	TB	6	0	7	32	7	4	1	0%	1.2	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	3.1%	2.57	4.55	—
2026	36	MLB RAW	TB	44	2	49	209	49	11	7	5%	1.1	23.4%	5.3%	18.2%	3.3%	4.74	3.63	+0.5
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	TB	44	2	49	209	49	11	7	5%	1.1	23.4%	5.3%	18.2%	3.3%	4.74	3.63	+0.5
ROS	36	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	21	5	1	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	6.7%	16.3%	2.5%	3.42	3.39	+0.1
ROS	36	MLB CTX	TB	5	0	5	21	5	1	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	6.7%	16.3%	2.5%	3.42	3.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	61	262	61	16	9	—	—	23.2%	6.3%	17.0%	3.3%	4.39	3.65	+0.7
FULL	36	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	54	229	61	16	9	—	—	26.5%	7.2%	19.4%	3.7%	4.96	3.81	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	TB	45	0	47	199	43	15	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.3%	14.4%	3.1%	4.12	4.27	+0.2
2028	38	MLB MLE	TB	39	0	40	171	35	14	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.47	4.71	-0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	TB	41	0	43	182	40	13	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.3%	14.4%	3.1%	4.12	4.27	+0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	27	11	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.47	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		276	4	300	1256	300	110	35	1%	1.1	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.8%	3.90	3.71	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	3	200	838	200	73	23	1%	1.1	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.8%	3.90	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		479	17	593	2470	604	209	52	4%	1.2	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	2.1%	3.44	3.26	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	6	200	833	204	70	18	4%	1.2	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	2.1%	3.44	3.26	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Sulser (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	22.5%	7.6%	2.4%	—	4.47	21.2%	13.6%	88	+0.61	—	—	—
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	81
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	79
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	78
Tommy Hunter R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	36	SU	3.98	22.1%	4.5%	4.0%	.292	5.22	18.9%	14.2%	24	+1.24	2.78	316	78
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	76
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	76
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	3.11	174	76
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	74
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	74
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	73
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	72
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	71
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	70
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	70
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	69
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	69
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	69
Seunghwan Oh R 2018 · 2.83 FIP	36	SU	2.83	28.8%	5.8%	2.6%	.257	5.75	18.2%	11.4%	18	+2.92	1.87	226	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	21.7%	7.6%	1.15	4.13
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47