JT Chargois — OGILVIE

JT Chargois P Round Rock Express

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.29

FIP4.58

K%20.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

FB+7.6 (57%)

SI (55%)

SL-1.2 (43%)

CH-1.4 (0%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	48	207	53	25	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	0.5%	2.62	3.34	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	48	207	53	25	1	0%	1.0	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	0.5%	2.62	2.73	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	64	0	70	289	72	25	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.5%	13.6%	0.5%	2.45	2.58	+1.7
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	64	0	70	289	72	25	2	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.3%	0.7%	2.45	2.48	+1.7
2017	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	2	0	3	9	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	2	0	3	9	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.73	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	47	196	49	19	4	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	2.85	3.36	+0.7
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	47	196	49	19	4	0%	0.9	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	2.0%	2.85	3.33	+0.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	54	223	65	19	7	0%	1.1	27.2%	8.9%	18.3%	3.1%	4.17	3.63	+0.6
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	54	223	65	19	7	0%	1.1	29.1%	8.5%	20.6%	3.1%	4.17	3.43	+0.7
2021	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	56	0	54	216	53	17	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	2.4%	2.52	3.33	+0.8
2021	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	56	0	54	216	53	17	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	2.3%	2.52	3.29	+0.8
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	3	30	129	22	12	4	9%	0.9	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	3.6%	6.00	4.14	+0.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	3	30	129	22	12	4	9%	0.9	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.1%	6.00	4.57	-0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	5	51	205	46	19	3	9%	1.0	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	1.8%	3.18	3.64	+0.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	5	51	205	46	19	3	9%	1.0	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	1.8%	3.18	3.64	+0.6
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	5	51	205	46	19	3	9%	1.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.2%	1.5%	3.18	3.18	+0.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	49	192	44	16	6	4%	1.0	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	4.2%	1.84	4.72	-0.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	49	192	44	16	6	4%	1.0	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	4.2%	1.84	4.72	-0.1
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	49	192	44	16	6	4%	1.0	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	3.1%	1.84	3.88	+0.4
2025	34	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	5	0	5	29	7	3	5	0%	0.9	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	17.2%	19.29	11.84	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	5	0	5	29	7	3	5	0%	0.9	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	17.2%	19.29	11.84	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	5	0	5	29	7	3	5	0%	0.9	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	17.2%	19.29	15.96	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			244	8	231	945	220	78	25	3%	0.9	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.6%	3.35	3.61	+2.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	TEX	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.29	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TEX	43	0	45	189	37	18	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.7%	10.0%	3.5%	4.69	4.95	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	9.7%	10.0%	3.5%	4.69	4.95	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	8	232	947	220	78	25	3%	0.9	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.6%	3.35	3.63	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		211	7	200	817	190	67	22	3%	0.9	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.6%	3.35	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		406	10	410	1695	382	156	40	2%	1.0	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.3%	3.20	3.64	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		198	5	200	827	187	76	19	2%	1.0	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.3%	3.20	3.64	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JT Chargois (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.8%	9.1%	3.1%	—	4.95	19.8%	10.0%	45	+0.37	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	82
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	81
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	80
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	80
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	77
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	77
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	77
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	77
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	77
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	76
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	75
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	75
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	73
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	73
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	20.3%	9.4%	1.27	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78