Cade Winquest

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+STL	9	2	29	3.10	3.48	22.6%	14.5%	—	K 17.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.30
2025	25	MIX2 levels	25	23	106	3.99	2.99	23.9%	8.5%	—	K 18.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.82
2026	26	MIX2 levels	44	0	53	4.39	2.82	33.0%	10.0%	1.1	K 29.4% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	45	0	47	4.08	4.09	25.1%	9.9%	0.3
2028PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBSTL	41	0	43	4.16	4.19	24.8%	10.0%	0.2
2029PROJ80% MLB	29	MLBSTL	38	0	40	4.29	4.36	24.1%	10.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%82

FB Velo68

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsDylan King (age 25) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28) · Tom Wilhelmsen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.08

FIP4.09

K%25.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p8228.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.242

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	13	78	335	81	34	6	54%	3.2	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.3%	4.87	4.37	—
2023	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	13	78	335	81	34	6	54%	3.2	24.2%	10.1%	14.0%	1.8%	4.87	3.33	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	9	2	29	124	28	18	1	22%	3.2	17.4%	16.7%	0.7%	1.0%	3.10	4.30	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	9	2	29	124	28	18	1	22%	3.2	17.4%	16.7%	0.7%	1.0%	3.10	4.30	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	9	2	29	124	28	18	1	22%	3.2	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	0.8%	3.10	3.48	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	106	460	110	39	7	92%	4.2	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.0%	3.99	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	106	460	110	39	7	92%	4.2	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.0%	3.99	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	106	460	110	39	7	92%	4.2	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	1.5%	3.99	2.99	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	221	73	22	5	0%	1.2	29.4%	9.3%	20.1%	2.5%	4.39	3.16	+0.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	221	73	22	5	0%	1.2	29.4%	9.3%	20.1%	2.5%	4.39	3.16	+0.9
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	53	221	73	22	5	0%	1.2	33.0%	10.0%	23.1%	2.3%	4.39	2.82	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	0	14	57	16	8	1	0%	1.2	28.1%	14.0%	14.0%	1.8%	3.95	3.47	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	45	0	47	198	50	20	5	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.9%	15.1%	2.7%	4.08	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	54	0	57	239	59	24	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.8%	4.16	4.19	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	47	0	49	208	50	21	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.0%	4.29	4.36	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	41	0	43	182	45	18	5	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.8%	4.16	4.19	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	38	0	40	169	41	17	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.0%	4.29	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	0	96	407	102	43	11	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.18	3.84	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	843	211	89	23	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.18	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		102	38	266	1140	233	126	24	37%	2.6	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.1%	4.23	3.90	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	29	200	857	175	94	18	37%	2.6	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.1%	4.23	3.90	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 40 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.02 (+0.44)K% 34.8% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.76%	—	×0.860	29.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×0.900	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 64 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.05 (+1.00)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.770	18.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.51%	—	×1.150	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.857	×1.250	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 42 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.43 (+0.55)K% 23.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.86%	—	×0.810	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷1.105	×1.200	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 29 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.30 (+0.83)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.770	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.52%	—	×1.150	16.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.993	×1.250	1.02%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 78 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.37 (+1.04)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.740	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.15%	—	×1.180	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Winquest (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.27	24.5%	14.4%	106	+0.18	—	—	—
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	72
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	72
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	71
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	71
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	71
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	70
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	70
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	70
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	70
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	70
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	69
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	69
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	69
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	69
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	69
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	69
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	69
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	24.9%	10.3%	1.05	4.15
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*