Cade Winquest
P
Peoria Chiefs
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2030
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.0%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 13 | 78 | 335 | 81 | 34 | 6 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.87 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 9 | 2 | 29 | 124 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 17.4% | 16.7% | 1.0% | 3.10 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 23 | 106 | 460 | 110 | 39 | 7 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 3.99 | 3.84 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 70 | 33 | 9 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 74 | 34 | 9 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 74 | 34 | 10 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 72 | 33 | 10 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 76 | 29 | 10 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.23 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 29 | 9 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | STL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 38 | 213 | 919 | 168 | 105 | 18 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 36 | 200 | 864 | 158 | 99 | 17 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Winquest (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.41 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 250 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 91 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 85 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 85 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 85 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 83 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 82 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 82 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 82 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 82 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 81 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 81 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 81 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $16M | +$10M | ||