Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 12 | 4 | 30 | 135 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 33% | 2.5 | 9.1% | 13.0% | -3.9% | 0.0% | 2.37 | 3.98 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 12 | 4 | 30 | 135 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 33% | 2.5 | 13.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 2.37 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 11 | 75 | 333 | 65 | 46 | 5 | 55% | 3.8 | 13.2% | 17.5% | -4.3% | 1.3% | 4.66 | 4.94 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 11 | 75 | 333 | 65 | 46 | 5 | 55% | 3.8 | 19.5% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 4.66 | 4.07 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 78 | 336 | 82 | 42 | 6 | 34% | 2.7 | 18.2% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.00 | 4.76 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 78 | 336 | 82 | 42 | 6 | 34% | 2.7 | 24.4% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 3.61 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 106 | 467 | 158 | 74 | 5 | 56% | 3.9 | 26.8% | 17.7% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 3.99 | 3.69 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 106 | 467 | 158 | 74 | 5 | 56% | 3.9 | 33.8% | 15.8% | 18.0% | 1.1% | 3.99 | 2.83 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 16 | 0 | 21 | 94 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.7% | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.61 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 16 | 0 | 21 | 94 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.7% | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 2.61 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 13.5% | 16.0% | 4.6% | 4.00 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 4.2% | 4.00 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 257 | 56 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 257 | 56 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.58 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 74 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 1.5% | 4.55 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 74 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 1.7% | 4.55 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 66 | 298 | 69 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 4.93 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 66 | 298 | 69 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.93 | 3.37 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 295 | 86 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 295 | 86 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 20.0% | 2.0% | 4.34 | 2.90 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 40 | 0 | 52 | 228 | 58 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 3.31 | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 51 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 331 | 0 | 387 | 1705 | 410 | 178 | 44 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 3.81 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 212 | 92 | 23 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 391 | 41 | 661 | 2931 | 653 | 392 | 57 | 10% | 1.7 | 22.3% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 4.01 | 3.99 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 12 | 200 | 886 | 197 | 118 | 17 | 10% | 1.7 | 22.3% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 4.01 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yohan Ramírez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.36 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 142 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 74 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.93 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 1.0% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 201 | 72 |
| Curtis Partch R 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.14 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 0.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 124 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.07 | 4.24 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |