Juan Soto

LF New York Mets

Age 28 L/L 6'1" / 224 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 8.779 · Ctrl thru 2039

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2040

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBNYY	713	.288/.422/.569	41	7	171	6.5
2025	26	MLBNYM	715	.263/.398/.525	43	38	153	4.6
2026	27	MLBNYM	482	.275/.394/.515	27	9	145	3.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYM	513	.282/.394/.551	32	14	168	4.9
2028PROJ	29	MLBNYM	614	.280/.392/.547	38	15	166	5.6
2029PROJ	30	MLBNYM	614	.278/.390/.540	37	12	163	5.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 14.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 15.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2039Service8.779First FA2040Options1NTC

2027Ext$46M2028Ext$46M2029Ext$46M2030Ext$46M2031Ext$46M2032Ext$46M2033Ext$46M2034Ext$46M+5

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%90

xwOBA90

Avg EV90

Bat Spd62

Speed12

Form.286/.384/.528 ▼▼ rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .289/.397/.562

CompsCarlos Delgado (age 29) · Todd Helton (age 28) · Joey Votto (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 144168vR 177

AVG/OBP/SLG.282 / .394 / .551

PA513

HR32

SB14

K%17

BB%15

BABIP282

ISO270

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$198M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

900.298

POWER

Barrel%

9017.7

Avg EV

9093.6

Bat Spd

6272.6

SPEED

Sprint

1225.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%15%▲14% over 65 PA (45d) · proj 16%

BB%14%▼12% over 123 PA (60d) · proj 15%

ISO.242▼▼.196 over 107 AB (60d) · proj .273

HR/BB8.1%▼6.7% over 90 BBE (60d) · proj 9.2%

BABIP.287·.250 over 84 BIP (60d) · proj .291

SLASH.286/.384/.528▼▼proj .289/.397/.562

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

473

984

—

wRC+

143

175

▶▶R

wOBA

379

427

▶R

ISO

235

284

▶▶R

BABIP

268

298

▶R

18.2%

17.5%

▶R

BB%

15.6%

17.3%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.779 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2039

First FA Year 2040

NTCOPTDEF 30%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$46M	+5.0	$60M	+$14M
2028	Ext	$46M	+5.6	$62M	+$21M
2029	Ext	$46M	+5.3	$55M	+$17M
2030	Ext	$46M	+5.0	$48M	+$14M
2031	Ext	$46M	+4.5	$40M	+$10M
2032	Ext	$46M	+3.2	$21M	-$7M
2033	Ext	$46M	+2.1	$11M	-$14M
2034	Ext	$46M	+1.3	$6M	-$16M
2035	Ext	$46M	+0.7	$2M	-$18M
2036	Ext	$46M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$18M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2039	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$460M		$304M	+$4M

Options · projected decision
2030	PLAYER OPT	$46.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	183	169	61	11	3	5	14	25	0	5	2	361	410	550	960	189	403	14	8	422	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	96	86	31	5	0	3	10	8	0	1	2	360	427	523	950	163	373	8	10	421	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	27	25	8	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	320	370	440	810	120	333	4	7	360	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	494	414	121	25	1	22	79	99	0	5	2	292	406	517	923	225	338	20	16	406	151	+30	+0	-6	-7	+11	2.8
2018	19	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	35	31	10	2	0	2	4	7	0	1	0	323	400	581	981	258	364	20	11	427	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	73	62	23	3	1	7	11	8	0	0	1	371	466	790	1.256	419	340	11	15	528	198	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	74	59	22	5	3	5	14	13	0	2	0	373	493	814	1.307	441	405	18	19	535	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	659	542	153	32	5	34	108	132	3	12	1	282	404	548	952	266	312	20	16	412	164	+50	+2	+0	-7	+14	6.1
2020	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	196	154	54	14	0	13	41	28	1	6	2	351	490	695	1.185	344	363	14	21	504	197	+23	+0	-3	-2	+4	2.3
2021	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	654	502	157	20	2	29	145	93	2	9	7	313	468	534	1.002	221	332	14	22	440	168	+53	-1	-1	-7	+14	5.9
2022	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	664	524	127	25	2	27	135	96	4	6	2	242	401	452	853	210	249	14	20	384	143	+34	+0	-16	-7	+14	2.6
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	708	568	156	32	1	35	132	129	2	12	5	275	413	519	932	245	296	18	19	408	156	+48	+0	-7	-8	+15	5.0
2024	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	713	576	166	31	4	41	129	119	4	7	4	288	422	569	991	281	298	17	18	429	171	+60	-0	-4	-8	+15	6.5
2025	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	715	577	152	20	1	43	127	137	3	38	4	263	398	525	923	262	270	19	18	402	153	+45	+6	-14	-8	+15	4.6
2026	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	482	400	110	11	2	27	78	65	1	9	3	275	394	515	909	240	268	13	16	398	145	+26	+1	-0	-5	+10	3.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5285	4257	1196	210	18	271	974	898	20	104	30	281	417	530	947	249	297	17	18	414	166	+417	+9	-51	-59	+115	43.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	183	174	49	8	2	4	9	36	0	5	2	282	317	420	736	138	335	20	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	96	91	31	4	0	3	5	11	0	1	2	341	375	484	859	143	360	11	5	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	27	26	7	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	269	296	385	681	115	267	4	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	494	424	121	25	1	22	69	99	0	5	2	285	385	505	890	219	338	20	14	392	151	+30	+0	-6	-7	+11	2.8
2018	19	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	35	32	10	2	0	2	3	9	0	1	0	312	371	562	934	250	351	26	9	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	73	66	23	3	1	7	7	11	0	0	1	348	411	742	1.153	394	333	15	10	461	198	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	74	64	21	5	3	4	9	18	0	2	0	328	411	688	1.098	359	358	24	12	439	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	659	545	153	31	6	34	105	132	3	12	1	281	400	547	946	266	312	20	16	411	164	+50	+2	+0	-7	+14	6.1
2020	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	196	166	54	14	0	13	29	28	1	6	2	325	429	645	1.073	319	363	14	15	460	197	+23	+0	-3	-2	+4	2.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	525	157	20	2	29	122	93	2	9	7	299	433	510	943	211	332	14	19	416	168	+53	-1	-1	-7	+14	5.9
2022	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	664	531	129	27	2	26	129	96	4	6	2	243	395	448	843	205	249	14	19	379	143	+34	+0	-16	-7	+14	2.6
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	708	579	158	34	1	34	121	129	2	12	5	273	400	511	912	238	296	18	17	399	156	+48	+0	-7	-8	+15	5.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	713	578	163	31	4	38	127	119	4	7	4	282	415	547	961	265	298	17	18	420	171	+60	-0	-4	-8	+15	6.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	715	591	155	21	1	43	114	137	3	38	4	262	384	519	904	257	270	19	16	394	153	+45	+6	-14	-8	+15	4.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	482	416	113	12	2	27	63	65	1	9	3	272	369	505	874	233	268	13	13	382	145	+26	+1	-0	-5	+10	3.2
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	183	174	49	8	2	4	9	36	0	5	2	282	317	420	736	138	336	20	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	183	169	61	11	3	5	14	25	0	5	2	361	410	550	960	189	403	14	8	422	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	123	117	38	5	1	3	6	12	0	1	2	325	358	462	819	137	343	10	5	352	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	123	111	39	6	1	3	12	9	0	1	2	351	415	505	919	153	364	7	10	408	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	676	586	173	34	5	34	88	137	0	8	3	295	387	544	932	249	334	20	13	403	159	+47	+0	-6	-7	+15	5.0
2018	19	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	676	566	176	35	5	36	108	127	0	8	3	311	421	581	1.003	270	347	19	16	435	159	+47	+0	-6	-7	+15	5.0
2019	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	659	545	153	31	6	34	105	132	3	12	1	281	400	547	946	266	309	20	16	411	164	+50	+2	+0	-7	+14	6.1
2019	20	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	659	542	153	32	5	34	108	132	3	12	1	282	404	548	952	266	312	20	16	412	164	+50	+2	+0	-7	+14	6.1
2020	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	196	166	54	14	0	13	29	28	1	6	2	325	429	645	1.073	319	328	14	15	460	197	+23	+0	-3	-2	+4	2.3
2020	21	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	196	154	54	14	0	13	41	28	1	6	2	351	490	695	1.185	344	363	14	21	504	197	+23	+0	-3	-2	+4	2.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	525	157	20	2	29	122	93	2	9	7	299	433	510	943	211	314	14	19	416	168	+53	-1	-1	-7	+14	5.9
2021	22	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	654	502	157	20	2	29	145	93	2	9	7	313	468	534	1.002	221	332	14	22	440	168	+53	-1	-1	-7	+14	5.9
2022	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	664	531	129	27	2	26	129	96	4	6	2	243	395	448	843	205	252	14	19	379	143	+34	+0	-16	-7	+14	2.6
2022	23	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	664	524	127	25	2	27	135	96	4	6	2	242	401	452	853	210	249	14	20	384	143	+34	+0	-16	-7	+14	2.6
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	708	579	158	34	1	34	121	129	2	12	5	273	400	511	912	238	295	18	17	399	156	+48	+0	-7	-8	+15	5.0
2023	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	708	568	156	32	1	35	132	129	2	12	5	275	413	519	932	245	296	18	19	408	156	+48	+0	-7	-8	+15	5.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	713	578	163	31	4	38	127	119	4	7	4	282	415	547	961	265	294	17	18	420	171	+60	-0	-4	-8	+15	6.5
2024	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	713	576	166	31	4	41	129	119	4	7	4	288	422	569	991	281	298	17	18	429	171	+60	-0	-4	-8	+15	6.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	715	591	155	21	1	43	114	137	3	38	4	262	384	519	904	257	269	19	16	394	153	+45	+6	-14	-8	+15	4.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	715	577	152	20	1	43	127	137	3	38	4	263	398	525	923	262	270	19	18	402	153	+45	+6	-14	-8	+15	4.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	482	416	113	12	2	27	63	65	1	9	3	272	369	505	874	233	264	13	13	382	145	+26	+1	-0	-5	+10	3.2
2026	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	482	400	110	11	2	27	78	65	1	9	3	275	394	515	909	240	268	13	16	398	145	+26	+1	-0	-5	+10	3.2
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	183	172	49	8	2	4	9	36	0	5	2	285	317	424	741	140	335	20	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	123	116	38	5	1	3	6	12	0	1	2	328	358	466	823	138	340	10	5	352	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	676	583	173	34	5	34	88	137	0	8	3	297	387	547	934	250	340	20	13	403	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	659	546	153	31	6	34	105	132	3	12	1	280	400	546	945	266	312	20	16	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	196	164	54	14	0	13	29	28	1	6	2	329	429	652	1.081	323	363	14	15	460	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	654	525	157	20	2	29	122	93	2	9	7	299	433	510	943	211	332	14	19	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	664	526	129	27	2	26	129	96	4	6	2	245	395	452	847	207	249	14	19	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	708	579	158	34	1	34	121	129	2	12	5	273	400	511	912	238	296	18	17	399	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	713	576	163	31	4	38	127	119	4	7	4	283	415	549	963	266	298	17	18	420	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	715	592	155	21	1	43	114	137	3	38	4	262	384	519	903	257	270	19	16	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	482	415	113	12	2	27	63	65	1	9	3	272	369	506	875	234	268	13	13	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	713	576	163	31	4	38	127	119	4	7	4	283	415	549	963	266	298	17	18	420	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	715	592	155	21	1	43	114	137	3	38	4	262	384	519	903	257	270	19	16	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	482	415	113	12	2	27	63	65	1	9	3	272	369	506	875	234	268	13	13	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	578	484	139	19	2	36	87	95	2	16	5	289	400	562	962	272	291	16	15	416	168	+46	+1	+1	-6	+13	5.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	513	429	121	16	2	32	77	85	2	14	5	282	394	551	946	269	282	17	15	410	168	+41	+1	+1	-5	+11	4.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	614	515	147	20	2	38	92	102	2	15	5	287	398	557	955	269	290	17	15	413	166	+48	+1	-1	-7	+13	5.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	614	515	147	20	2	38	92	104	2	12	4	285	395	550	945	266	288	17	15	410	163	+46	+1	-1	-7	+13	5.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	614	515	144	19	2	37	92	105	2	8	4	281	391	542	933	261	285	17	15	405	160	+44	+0	-2	-7	+13	5.0
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	614	516	143	19	2	36	91	107	2	5	3	276	386	529	915	254	281	17	15	398	156	+41	-0	-3	-7	+13	4.5
2032	33	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	502	422	113	14	1	29	74	90	1	1	2	269	379	514	893	245	276	18	15	390	150	+30	-1	-4	-5	+11	3.2
2033	34	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	408	344	90	11	1	23	60	75	1	1	1	260	371	494	865	234	268	18	15	379	143	+21	-0	-4	-4	+9	2.1
2034	35	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	353	299	75	8	1	19	51	67	0	0	1	251	361	472	834	222	260	19	14	367	134	+14	-0	-5	-4	+8	1.3
2035	36	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	302	256	62	6	1	15	43	59	0	0	0	241	351	450	801	208	253	20	14	354	126	+9	+0	-6	-3	+7	0.7
2036	37	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	243	207	48	5	0	12	34	49	0	0	0	231	341	426	766	194	245	20	14	341	117	+5	+0	-7	-3	+5	0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	614	515	144	19	2	38	92	102	2	15	5	280	392	547	939	266	281	17	15	407	166	+48	+1	-1	-7	+13	5.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	614	515	143	19	2	37	92	104	2	12	4	278	390	540	930	262	279	17	15	404	163	+46	+1	-1	-7	+13	5.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	614	515	141	18	2	37	92	105	2	8	4	274	386	532	918	258	276	17	15	399	160	+44	+0	-2	-7	+13	5.0
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	614	516	139	18	2	36	91	107	2	5	3	269	381	520	901	251	272	17	15	392	156	+41	-0	-3	-7	+13	4.5
2032	33	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	502	422	111	13	1	29	74	90	1	1	2	263	374	505	879	242	267	18	15	384	150	+30	-1	-4	-5	+11	3.2
2033	34	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	408	344	88	10	1	23	60	75	1	1	1	254	366	486	851	231	260	18	15	374	143	+21	-0	-4	-4	+9	2.1
2034	35	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	353	299	74	8	1	19	51	67	0	0	1	245	356	464	821	219	253	19	14	362	134	+14	-0	-5	-4	+8	1.3
2035	36	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	302	256	61	6	1	15	43	59	0	0	0	236	346	442	788	206	245	20	14	349	126	+9	+0	-6	-3	+7	0.7
2036	37	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	243	207	46	4	0	12	34	49	0	0	0	226	336	419	755	193	237	20	14	336	117	+5	+0	-7	-3	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	9549	7846	2143	325	30	517	1603	1656	30	146	50	273	398	520	918	247	284	17	17	401	155	+675	+9	-85	-104	+207	71.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	534	146	22	2	35	109	113	2	10	3	273	398	519	917	245	285	17	17	401	155	+46	+1	-6	-7	+14	4.9
Career	—	MLE		—	10550	8826	2435	376	40	564	1619	1827	32	169	60	276	390	519	909	243	288	17	15	397	155	+716	+10	-84	-110	+218	76.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	544	150	23	2	35	100	113	2	10	4	276	390	518	908	243	288	17	15	397	155	+46	+1	-5	-7	+14	4.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AHagerstown Suns · 74 PAwOBA .526 → .439 (−87)K% 17.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.57%	÷0.992	×1.340	—	—	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.57%	÷0.983	×0.660	—	×1.030	12.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.57%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×1.030	18.30%
Doubles /BIP	10.87%	÷0.941	×0.820	—	×1.030	9.76%
Triples /BIP	6.52%	÷1.150	×0.940	—	×1.030	5.49%
Home runs /BIP	10.87%	÷1.108	×0.820	—	×1.030	8.29%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .526 → .439; ISO .441 → .367; BABIP .405 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 73 PAwOBA .513 → .461 (−52)K% 11.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.96%	÷0.998	×1.420	—	—	15.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.07%	÷1.013	×0.630	—	×1.042	9.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.992	×0.940	×1.034	×1.042	22.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.020	×0.830	×1.034	×1.042	4.87%
Triples /BIP	1.85%	÷0.900	×0.800	×1.034	×1.042	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	12.96%	÷1.017	×0.900	—	×1.042	11.95%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .513 → .461; ISO .419 → .389; BABIP .340 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 35 PAwOBA .415 → .365 (−50)K% 20.0% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	24.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.037	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.10%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	—	×1.050	25.05%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.012	×0.860	—	×1.050	7.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.070	×0.950	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.38%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .415 → .365; ISO .258 → .224; BABIP .364 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AHagerstown Suns · 96 PAwOBA .404 → .375 (−29)K% 8.3% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.33%	÷1.009	×1.340	—	—	11.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.101	×0.660	—	×1.045	5.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.49%	÷0.986	×0.920	×1.035	×1.045	29.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷1.156	×0.820	×1.035	×1.045	4.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.043	×0.940	×1.035	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.909	×0.820	—	×1.045	3.63%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 131, 3B 109, K 102, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .404 → .375; ISO .163 → .148; BABIP .373 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGCL Nationals · 27 PAwOBA .351 → .272 (−79)K% 3.7% → 5.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	5.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.008	20.65%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.008	3.02%
Triples /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.008	3.02%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .351 → .272; ISO .120 → .088; BABIP .333 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGCL Nationals · 183 PAwOBA .410 → .316 (−94)K% 13.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.66%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.65%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.85%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.17%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.030	×1.022	25.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.64%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.030	×1.022	5.79%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.030	×1.022	1.58%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	2.77%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .410 → .316; ISO .189 → .141; BABIP .403 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Albert Pujolslast yr '22 MVPROYAS×3SS career totals — 22 seasons, 13,041 PA	19.6	13,041	703	117	296	374	544	-212	-86	94.3	76.9
/162	664	36	6	-10.8	-4.4	4.8	pk7: 60
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons	15.2	10,062	549	160	278	398	529	-111	-145	88.9	67.9
/162	664	36	11	-7.3	-9.6	5.9	pk7: 47
#2Manny Ramirez'93-'11 * career totals — 18 seasons, 9,774 PA	14.7	9,774	555	38	299*	397*	570*	-125	-85	85.2	65.8
/162	664	38	3	-8.5	-5.7	5.8	pk7: 46
#3Miguel Cabreralast yr '23 MVP×2ROYAS×12SS×7HOF career totals — 21 seasons, 11,796 PA	17.8	11,796	511	40	306	382	518	-133	-139	79.4	65.7
/162	664	29	2	-7.5	-7.8	4.5	pk7: 52
#4Gary Sheffield'88-'09 * career totals — 22 seasons, 10,947 PA	16.5	10,947	509	253	282*	382*	512*	-98	-69	80.3	63.4
/162	664	31	15	-6.0	-4.2	4.9	pk7: 47
#5Dick Allen'63-'77 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,314 PA	11.0	7,314	351	133	291*	382*	586*	-63	-28	63.8	55.1
/162	664	32	12	-5.7	-2.5	5.8	pk7: 46
#6Joey Vottolast yr '23 MVPAS×6SS career totals — 17 seasons, 8,746 PA	13.2	8,746	356	80	294	409	511	-156	-146	57.2	49.2
/162	664	27	6	-11.9	-11.1	4.3	pk7: 41

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Soto (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	286/397/556	270	291	32	14	16%	15%	168	+5.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Carlos Delgado 2001 · MLB	29	61→63	68→70	41→30	66	322/429/614	292	336	33	2	15%	14%	191	+7.9	282/388/546	264	304	33	2	19%	13%	162	+5.8	273/382/535	262	294	34	1	20%	13%	158	+6.3
★Todd Helton 2002 · MLB	28	61→66	72→70	43→45	61	331/410/647	316	326	38	6	13%	12%	193	+8.1	325/411/588	263	334	30	4	12%	12%	178	+7.0	329/422/580	251	338	28	2	11%	13%	182	+8.3
★Joey Votto 2012 · MLB	28	59→67	59→65	46→50	60	302/393/527	225	340	26	9	19%	12%	159	+5.6	294/402/486	192	346	19	7	19%	15%	153	+5.2	304/422/520	216	336	25	7	16%	16%	166	+7.1
★Lance Berkman 2003 · MLB	27	56→64	66→70	43→50	61	297/389/568	271	315	32	7	17%	12%	167	+6.2	290/396/526	236	313	26	7	16%	14%	160	+5.7	296/402/547	251	307	31	5	15%	14%	167	+6.6
★Albert Pujols 2008 · MLB	28	58→65	66→70	42→50	61	311/388/572	261	291	34	6	9%	11%	168	+6.3	310/385/583	273	294	35	9	9%	10%	170	+6.4	307/383/592	285	287	38	11	10%	10%	173	+7.5
★Yordan Alvarez 2024 · MLB	27	52→55	69→70	44→45	58	285/378/563	278	302	37	2	20%	12%	162	+5.9	288/368/534	246	303	32	4	17%	10%	152	+5.1	290/370/537	246	302	33	3	16%	10%	155	+4.6
★Miguel Cabrera 2012 · MLB	29	62→67	63→70	42→45	58	322/394/569	247	335	30	4	14%	10%	170	+6.4	325/388/585	260	338	34	3	15%	9%	171	+6.5	325/385/583	258	339	35	2	15%	8%	171	+7.4
★Freddie Freeman 2018 · MLB	28	55→65	64→65	46→50	54	290/369/544	254	328	30	7	21%	10%	155	+5.3	297/374/527	230	334	27	8	19%	10%	152	+5.1	314/388/518	204	347	22	12	15%	9%	158	+6.6
★Chipper Jones 2002 · MLB	30	58→68	64→65	43→50	62	307/388/559	252	301	32	10	11%	12%	164	+6.0	295/382/513	218	307	27	6	14%	12%	151	+5.1	331/417/574	243	347	29	6	13%	13%	179	+6.3
★Aramis Ramirez 2006 · MLB	28	55→59	64→70	36→45	51	295/346/536	241	288	33	2	12%	7%	146	+4.7	292/350/537	245	289	31	2	12%	7%	147	+4.7	290/355/531	241	290	29	1	12%	8%	149	+5.0
★Anthony Rizzo 2018 · MLB	28	52→56	61→65	45	58	274/371/509	235	279	28	8	14%	11%	147	+4.8	272/367/480	208	280	26	7	14%	10%	140	+4.2	269/367/471	202	276	26	6	13%	10%	139	+3.5
★Travis Hafner 2006 · MLB	29	56→59	65→70	44→40	56	293/383/557	264	331	31	3	21%	11%	162	+5.9	273/373/516	243	301	30	2	20%	13%	149	+4.9	259/365/485	226	283	29	1	19%	13%	140	+3.5
★Manny Ramirez 2001 · MLB	29	62→66	73→70	44→30	61	327/420/639	312	370	40	4	22%	14%	193	+8.1	311/390/593	282	342	37	2	20%	11%	174	+6.7	312/392/587	275	325	36	2	16%	10%	174	+6.9
★Ryan Howard 2007 · MLB	27	53→58	73→70	42→40	49	292/363/586	294	340	43	2	27%	9%	163	+5.9	262/339/549	287	306	41	3	28%	10%	146	+4.7	255/333/541	286	294	41	3	28%	10%	143	+5.1
●Giancarlo Stanton 2018 · MLB	28	47→54	77→80	41→45	51	274/351/596	322	295	47	3	26%	10%	161	+5.8	264/346/512	248	327	33	5	28%	10%	139	+4.2	246/327/475	229	299	34	2	29%	10%	125	+3.1
●Bryce Harper 2022 · MLB	29	53→61	64→65	51→50	62	277/382/535	258	317	30	14	22%	14%	157	+5.5	279/365/500	221	327	25	12	21%	11%	143	+4.5	264/357/477	214	305	25	8	21%	12%	136	+4.2
★Magglio Ordonez 2003 · MLB	29	58→68	63→65	48→50	55	308/370/553	246	304	31	13	11%	8%	158	+5.5	302/363/515	213	308	25	7	11%	8%	146	+4.7	321/380/514	193	340	22	2	12%	8%	153	+5.6
★Jermaine Dye 2001 · MLB	27	59→61	61→70	42→45	55	306/371/533	228	321	28	2	15%	9%	153	+5.2	265/334/453	188	290	23	5	17%	8%	122	+2.9	283/344/542	259	297	35	4	18%	8%	148	+4.8
●Jesse Winker 2022 · MLB	28	54→63	60→55	46→45	58	283/374/513	229	305	27	3	17%	11%	149	+4.9	245/352/396	151	287	17	5	20%	13%	116	+2.5	234/349/360	127	281	14	6	20%	14%	107	+1.4
●Michael Conforto 2021 · MLB	28	53	59→65	43→45	55	275/368/490	215	327	27	7	24%	11%	142	+4.4	253/348/421	168	304	20	5	22%	11%	120	+2.8	239/329/415	177	282	22	2	23%	10%	112	+1.8

Juan Soto

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps