Juan SotoRF New York Mets
Age 27 L/L 6'1" / 224 lbs MLB Svc 7.779 · Ctrl thru 2039
2026 ROS PROJECTION334 act + 381 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†vL 154180vR 190
AVG/OBP/SLG.295 / .418 / .580
PA381
HR24
SB11
K%15
BB%17
BABIP294
ISO285
MLB%100%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: +61.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+62BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -2.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: -7.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-8POSREP: +20.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+20REPTotal WAR: +7.50+7.5WAR
0.03.57.03.07.16.96.66.25.64.33.32.31.40.70.00.00.0-$237M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
Whiff%
905.8%
xwOBA
900.443
POWER60
Barrel%
9018.2
Avg EV
9093.7
Bat Spd
6272.6
EYE60
Chase%
9016.0%
SPEED40
Sprint
1725.9
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
473
984
wRC+
149
185
▶▶R
wOBA
379
427
R
ISO
235
284
▶▶R
BABIP
268
298
R
K%
18.2%
17.5%
R
BB%
15.6%
17.3%
R
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   7.779 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2039
First FA Year   2040
NTCOPTDEF 30%
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$18M+3.0$24M+$6M
2027Ext$46M+7.1$53M+$11M
2028Ext$46M+6.9$47M+$10M
2029Ext$46M+6.6$42M+$9M
2030Ext$46M+6.2$37M+$6M
2031Ext$46M+5.6$31M+$4M
2032Ext$46M+4.3$22M-$3M
2033Ext$46M+3.3$16M-$6M
2034Ext$46M+2.3$10M-$10M
2035Ext$46M+1.4$6M-$12M
2036Ext$46M+0.7$1M-$15M
2037Ext$46M
2038Ext$46M
2039Ext$46M
Totals $616M $286M -$41M
Options · projected decision
2030PLAYER OPT$46.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$41M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201617 ROKGCL Nationals 183174 48824 9360 52 276311414725 138328 205 309 95
201617 ROKGCL Nationals 183169 611135 14250 52 361410550960 189403 148 422 181
201718 A2 teams 123117 36413 6120 12 308341436777 128324 105 342 120
201718 A2 teams 123111 39613 1290 12 351415505919 153364 710 408 170
201819 MLB4 teams 676577 17134434 971370 83 296398546944 250337 2014 395 161 +46 +0 -6 -7 +19 5.4
201819 MLB4 teams 676566 17635536 1081270 83 3114215811.003 270347 1916 435 191 +69 +0 -6 -7 +19 7.7
201920 MLBWashington Nationals 659542 15332534 1081323 121 282404548952 266312 2016 405 168 +50 +2 +0 -7 +19 6.6
201920 MLBWashington Nationals 659542 15332534 1081323 121 282404548952 266312 2016 412 174 +55 +2 +0 -7 +19 7.0
202021 MLBWashington Nationals 196154 5414013 41281 62 3514906951.185 344363 1421 456 207 +24 +0 -3 -2 +6 2.5
202021 MLBWashington Nationals 196154 5414013 41281 62 3514906951.185 344363 1421 504 244 +32 +0 -3 -2 +6 3.4
202122 MLBWashington Nationals 654502 15720229 145932 97 3134685341.002 221332 1422 411 173 +54 -1 -1 -7 +19 6.4
202122 MLBWashington Nationals 654502 15720229 145932 97 3134685341.002 221332 1422 440 195 +70 -1 -1 -7 +19 8.1
202223 MLBSan Diego Padres 664525 13126229 135964 62 250407472879 223255 1420 384 152 +39 +0 -16 -7 +19 3.5
202223 MLBSan Diego Padres 664524 12725227 135964 62 242401452853 210249 1420 384 152 +39 +0 -16 -7 +19 3.5
202324 MLBSan Diego Padres 708568 16234138 1321292 125 285422549971 264305 1819 405 168 +55 +0 -7 -8 +20 6.2
202324 MLBSan Diego Padres 708568 15632135 1321292 125 275413519932 245296 1819 408 170 +56 +0 -7 -8 +20 6.4
202425 MLBNew York Yankees 713576 16230438 1291194 74 281416545961 264293 1718 412 174 +59 -0 -4 -8 +20 6.9
202425 MLBNew York Yankees 713576 16631441 1291194 74 288422569991 281298 1718 429 187 +70 -0 -4 -8 +20 8.0
202526 MLBNew York Mets 715578 15220143 1271373 384 263398524923 261270 1918 386 153 +43 +6 -14 -8 +20 4.9
202526 MLBNew York Mets 715577 15220143 1271373 384 263398525923 262270 1918 402 166 +53 +6 -14 -8 +20 5.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD27 MLBNYM 334277 808221 55430 73 289407560966 271274 1316 398 163 +24 +0 -0 -4 +9 3.0
YTD27 MLBNYM 334276 808221 55430 73 290407562968 272276 1316 419 179 +30 +0 -0 -4 +9 3.6
ROS27 MLBNYM 100% 381312 9215124 65591 114 295418580998 285297 1517 432 188 +38 +1 -2 -4 +11 4.5
ROS27 MLBNYM 100% 381312 9215124 65591 114 295418580998 285296 1517 430 187 +37 +1 -2 -4 +11 4.4
FULL27 MLBNYM 715589 17223345 1201021 187 292413570983 278285 1417 415 176 +61 +1 -2 -8 +20 7.4
TOT27 MLBNYM 715589 17223345 1201021 187 292413570983 278285 1417 416 176 +62 +1 -2 -8 +20 7.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202728 MLBNYM 100% 660552 16227241 1021041 176 293405572977 279296 1615 424 183 +62 +1 -4 -7 +19 7.2
202829 MLBNYM 100% 660552 16227241 1021051 166 293405572977 279295 1615 422 181 +60 +1 -4 -7 +19 7.0
202930 MLBNYM 100% 660552 15926240 1021071 155 288400560960 272293 1615 418 178 +58 +1 -5 -7 +19 6.7
203031 MLBNYM 100% 659551 15826240 1021081 134 287399559958 272289 1615 413 174 +55 +1 -6 -7 +19 6.3
203132 MLBNYM 100% 646540 15124238 1001091 104 280393543936 263284 1715 406 169 +50 +0 -7 -7 +18 5.7
203233 MLBNYM 100% 560468 12820132 86971 72 274387526913 252278 1715 398 162 +39 +1 -7 -6 +16 4.4
203334 MLBNYM 100% 512428 11216128 79920 52 262377500877 238270 1815 386 154 +31 +0 -7 -5 +15 3.4
203435 MLBNYM 100% 455383 9613124 69850 31 251365478843 227262 1915 374 145 +23 +0 -8 -5 +13 2.4
203536 MLBNYM 100% 394331 8211120 60770 21 248363468831 221258 2015 364 137 +16 +0 -8 -4 +11 1.5
203637 MLBNYM 100% 328276 668116 49670 10 239354449803 210254 2015 353 128 +10 +0 -9 -4 +9 0.8
203738 MLBNYM 100% 258218 516112 38540 00 234348436783 202250 2115 342 120 +6 +0 -9 -3 +7 0.1
203839 MLBNYM 100% 184155 35408 27390 00 226341406747 181246 2115 330 111 +2 +0 -9 -2 +5 -0.4
203940 MLBNYM 100% 11396 20204 16240 00 208321354676 146246 2114 326 108 +1 +0 -10 -1 +3 -0.7
202728 MLBNYM 100% 660552 16227241 1021041 176 293405572977 279296 1615 422 181 +60 +1 -4 -7 +19 7.1
202829 MLBNYM 100% 660552 16227241 1021051 166 293405572977 279294 1615 420 179 +59 +1 -4 -7 +19 6.8
202930 MLBNYM 100% 660552 15926240 1021071 155 288400560960 272292 1615 416 177 +57 +1 -5 -7 +19 6.6
203031 MLBNYM 100% 659551 15826240 1021081 134 287399559958 272289 1615 412 173 +54 +1 -6 -7 +19 6.2
203132 MLBNYM 100% 646540 15124238 1001091 104 280393543936 263284 1715 405 168 +50 +0 -7 -7 +18 5.6
203233 MLBNYM 100% 560468 12820132 86971 72 274387526913 252278 1715 396 161 +39 +1 -7 -6 +16 4.3
203334 MLBNYM 100% 512428 11216128 79920 52 262377500877 238270 1815 385 153 +31 +0 -7 -5 +15 3.3
203435 MLBNYM 100% 455383 9613124 69850 31 251365478843 227262 1915 374 144 +23 +0 -8 -5 +13 2.4
203536 MLBNYM 100% 394331 8211120 60770 21 248363468831 221258 2015 363 136 +16 +0 -8 -4 +11 1.5
203637 MLBNYM 100% 328276 668116 49670 10 239354449803 210254 2015 352 128 +10 +0 -9 -4 +9 0.8
203738 MLBNYM 100% 258218 516112 38540 00 234348436783 202250 2115 341 119 +6 +0 -9 -3 +7 0.1
203839 MLBNYM 100% 184155 35408 27390 00 226341406747 181246 2115 330 111 +2 +0 -9 -2 +5 -0.4
203940 MLBNYM 100% 11396 20204 16240 00 208321354676 146246 2114 326 108 +1 +0 -10 -1 +3 -0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career 112739271 256042433612 1893196026 19562 276400527927 251288 1717 404 167 +858 +14 -145 -123 +319 94.3
/ 162G 650535 14724235 1091131 114 275398523921 249287 1717 404 167 +50 +1 -8 -7 +18 5.4
Career 117619727 270044739633 1926204626 20467 278398527925 249291 1716 397 162 +825 +14 -145 -126 +333 92.0
/ 162G 650538 14925235 1061131 114 277396526922 249290 1716 397 162 +46 +1 -8 -7 +18 5.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201617 ROKGCL Nationals 183169 611135 14250 52 361410550960 189403 148 422 181 +17 +0 +5 2.3
201718 AHagerstown Suns 9686 31503 1080 12 360427523950 163373 810 421 181 +9 -1 +3 1.1
201718 ROKGCL Nationals 2725 8110 210 00 320370440810 120333 47 360 134 +1 +0 +1 0.2
201819 MLBWashington Nationals 494414 12125122 79990 52 292406517923 225338 2016 406 169 +39 +0 -6 -7 +14 4.0
201819 AAHarrisburg Senators 3531 10202 470 10 323400581981 258364 2011 427 185 +3 +0 +1 0.5
201819 A+Potomac Nationals 7362 23317 1180 01 3714667901.256 419340 1115 528 262 +13 -0 +2 1.5
201819 AHagerstown Suns 7459 22535 14130 20 3734938141.307 441405 1819 535 267 +14 +0 +2 1.7
201920 MLBWashington Nationals 659542 15332534 1081323 121 282404548952 266312 2016 412 174 +55 +2 +0 -7 +19 7.0
202021 MLBWashington Nationals 196154 5414013 41281 62 3514906951.185 344363 1421 504 244 +32 +0 -3 -2 +6 3.4
202122 MLBWashington Nationals 654502 15720229 145932 97 3134685341.002 221332 1422 440 195 +70 -1 -1 -7 +19 8.1
202223 MLBSan Diego Padres 664524 12725227 135964 62 242401452853 210249 1420 384 152 +39 +0 -16 -7 +19 3.5
202324 MLBSan Diego Padres 708568 15632135 1321292 125 275413519932 245296 1819 408 170 +56 +0 -7 -8 +20 6.4
202425 MLBNew York Yankees 713576 16631441 1291194 74 288422569991 281298 1718 429 187 +70 -0 -4 -8 +20 8.0
202526 MLBNew York Mets 715577 15220143 1271373 384 263398525923 262270 1918 402 166 +53 +6 -14 -8 +20 5.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 48033857 108619916244 89683319 9527 282419531950 250300 1719 415 176 +413 +8 -51 -53 +136 46.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 23 projected seasons
2311,941653214278398532-141-176109.780.9
/1626643612-7.8-9.86.1pk7: 52
#1Albert Pujolslast yr '22
MVPROYAS×3SS
career totals — 22 seasons, 13,041 PA
2213,041703117296374544-212-8694.176.8
/162664366-10.8-4.44.8pk7: 59
#2Miguel Cabreralast yr '23
MVP×2ROYAS×12SS×7HOF
career totals — 21 seasons, 11,796 PA
2111,79651140306382518-133-13979.265.6
/162664292-7.5-7.84.5pk7: 52
#3David Ortizlast yr '16
AS×10SS×7HOF
career totals — 17 seasons, 9,689 PA
179,68953116287380557-152-1380.763.8
/162664361-10.4-0.95.5pk7: 47
#4Lance Berkmanlast yr '13
AS×6SS
career totals — 14 seasons, 7,708 PA
147,70836281294407539-103-7863.455.7
/162664317-8.8-6.75.5pk7: 48
#5Jim Thomelast yr '12
AS×5SSHOF
career totals — 13 seasons, 6,531 PA
136,5314163270396558-73-2659.752.4
/162664420-7.5-2.66.1pk7: 45
#6Matt Hollidaylast yr '18
AS×7SS×4
career totals — 15 seasons, 7,981 PA
157,981316108299379510-89-9152.245.4
/162664269-7.4-7.54.3pk7: 39

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Juan Soto (OGILVIE) 27 60 60 40 60 292/413/570 278285 4518 14% 17% 176 +7.5
Lance Berkman
2003 · MLB
27 57→65 67→70 43→50 65 303/406/580 277323 327 17% 14% 185 +7.6 297/416/539 242323 267 16% 16% 177 +7.1 305/427/56425932031515%17%173+7.2
Joey Votto
2011 · MLB
27 60→69 62→65 48→50 61 311/402/554 244349 2911 19% 13% 177 +7.1 306/420/520 214357 228 19% 16% 175 +6.9 309/443/53322334426716%19%172+7.7
Freddie Freeman
2018 · MLB
28 58→68 63→65 46→50 59 297/391/553 255342 297 21% 12% 173 +6.8 303/392/537 234343 278 19% 12% 169 +6.5 324/409/538215358241215%11%164+7.3
Albert Pujols
2008 · MLB
28 60→67 67→70 42→50 69 323/423/595 272305 346 9% 14% 195 +8.3 327/434/615 288314 359 9% 15% 204 +8.9 327/439/627300312371110%16%177+8.0
Bryce Harper
2018 · MLB
25 55→63 63→65 46→50 67 290/401/538 248321 3111 20% 16% 172 +6.7 260/383/502 242306 2912 23% 16% 156 +5.6 288/396/526238339271322%14%154+4.8
J.D. Drew
2005 · MLB
29 56→60 60→65 51→50 67 289/401/523 234318 2710 18% 15% 168 +6.4 283/396/496 213320 236 18% 15% 159 +5.8 273/390/48020731521419%16%144+4.1
Anthony Rizzo
2017 · MLB
27 54→56 61→65 44→45 58 281/379/515 234298 278 16% 11% 158 +5.8 277/382/492 215288 257 14% 12% 154 +5.4 277/388/48620928525613%12%145+5.3
Cody Bellinger
2021 · MLB
26 52→57 67→70 52→50 61 283/374/555 272296 3513 18% 13% 167 +6.3 233/301/428 195268 2513 23% 9% 105 +2.1 273/335/459186289241415%8%121+3.2
Aaron Judge
2019 · MLB
27 51→61 65→80 45→50 60 263/379/514 250342 338 31% 15% 157 +5.7 266/366/508 242340 336 29% 13% 151 +5.3 292/424/63434233247926%18%188+8.1
Alex Bregman
2021 · MLB
27 51→55 61→60 47→50 69 272/388/513 242271 276 13% 15% 160 +5.9 257/357/434 177268 203 13% 13% 129 +3.7 252/344/42917725921212%11%119+3.4
Alex Rodriguez
2001 · MLB
26 57→60 67→70 50→55 64 304/408/577 273325 3513 18% 14% 185 +7.6 304/395/602 298314 4112 18% 12% 187 +7.8 302/396/609307307431217%11%180+8.8
Chipper Jones
2001 · MLB
29 56→66 63→65 46→50 67 300/393/543 243289 3012 10% 13% 170 +6.6 315/414/553 238325 288 12% 14% 181 +7.3 318/422/54823133127613%15%165+6.9
Yordan Alvarez
2023 · MLB
26 53→57 66→70 44→45 57 282/370/542 259311 343 21% 11% 161 +6.0 287/383/534 247309 314 18% 12% 164 +6.2 288/389/52824030730317%12%153+4.0
Christian Yelich
2019 · MLB
27 62→66 59→70 54→55 56 311/389/534 223361 2516 20% 11% 167 +6.4 295/395/553 258346 3219 23% 13% 173 +6.8 281/396/530249333312024%15%156+4.1
Eric Chavez
2005 · MLB
27 52→54 61→65 46→45 62 277/368/503 226290 287 16% 13% 150 +5.2 258/342/458 200284 246 18% 11% 128 +3.7 250/331/44519527523518%11%115+2.5
Prince Fielder
2010 · MLB
26 53→63 68→70 40→45 63 286/392/561 275303 353 19% 14% 174 +6.9 291/406/538 247313 312 17% 15% 174 +6.9 297/416/53824131530116%15%159+6.8
Todd Helton
2003 · MLB
29 63→69 67→70 45 67 330/428/616 286338 336 14% 14% 202 +8.8 336/444/592 256351 273 12% 16% 202 +8.8 340/457/59125135525211%17%188+8.7
Paul Goldschmidt
2016 · MLB
28 60→63 60→65 50→55 64 300/406/531 231356 2615 22% 15% 172 +6.7 291/398/510 219352 2518 22% 15% 163 +6.1 286/395/509222346261723%14%150+5.9
Matt Olson
2022 · MLB
28 47→54 67→70 47→40 59 262/360/527 265276 364 21% 12% 154 +5.4 259/352/516 257290 342 23% 12% 147 +5.0 265/363/51124531032124%12%145+5.7
Adrián González
2010 · MLB
28 52→62 63→65 43→30 63 277/378/522 244294 312 18% 13% 159 +5.8 302/386/517 215333 262 17% 12% 161 +6.0 310/383/50819834623116%10%141+5.3