Juan Soto — OGILVIE

Juan SotoRF New York Mets

Age 27 L/L 6'1" / 224 lbs MLB H +5%HR +3% Svc 7.779 · Ctrl thru 2039 peak 6.8 · 2026

wRC+†vL 145178vR 181

AVG/OBP/SLG.284 / .411 / .557

PA715

HR43

SB20

K%18

BB%17

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

80↘60

trajectory · 10 yrs

8.2peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.779 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2039

First FA Year 2040

NTCOPTDEF 30%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+6.8	$54M	+$8M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+6.0	$49M	+$3M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+5.7	$48M	+$2M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+5.3	$46M	+$0.3M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+4.8	$43M	-$3M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+4.3	$40M	-$6M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+3.6	$34M	-$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+2.9	$29M	-$17M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+2.1	$21M	-$25M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+1.2	$13M	-$33M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+0.5	$3M	-$43M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	—	—	—
2038	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	—	—	—
2039	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	—	—	—
Totals		$644M		$371M	-$273M

Options · projected decision
2030	PLAYER OPT	$46.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$273M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	GCL Nationals	183	174	48	8	2	4	9	36	0	5	2	.276	.311	.414	.725	.138	.328	20	5	.309	95	-1	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.2
2017	18	A	2 teams	123	117	35	4	1	3	6	12	0	1	2	.299	.333	.427	.761	.128	.314	10	5	.332	113	+2	-1	+0	-1	+3	0.3
2018	19	MLB	4 teams	676	578	170	31	4	35	96	137	0	8	3	.294	.395	.543	.938	.249	.332	20	14	.394	160	+46	+0	-6	-7	+19	5.3
2019	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	659	542	149	29	5	30	108	132	3	12	1	.275	.398	.513	.911	.238	.308	20	16	.389	156	+42	+2	+0	-7	+19	5.7
2020	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	196	154	56	13	0	14	41	28	1	6	2	.364	.500	.721	1.221	.357	.375	14	21	.452	204	+23	+0	-3	-2	+6	2.5
2021	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	654	502	157	19	2	31	145	93	2	9	7	.313	.468	.544	1.012	.231	.329	14	22	.415	176	+56	-1	-1	-7	+19	6.7
2022	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	664	525	125	27	2	23	135	96	4	6	2	.238	.398	.429	.826	.190	.251	14	20	.365	137	+28	+0	-16	-7	+19	2.4
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	708	568	153	31	1	37	132	129	2	12	5	.269	.409	.523	.932	.254	.285	18	19	.391	157	+46	+0	-7	-8	+20	5.3
2024	25	MLB	New York Yankees	713	576	168	31	5	40	129	119	4	7	4	.292	.425	.571	.996	.280	.304	17	18	.425	183	+67	-0	-4	-8	+20	7.7
2025	26	MLB	New York Mets	715	578	147	20	1	42	127	137	3	38	4	.254	.391	.510	.902	.256	.259	19	18	.379	148	+39	+6	-14	-8	+20	4.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	MLB	New York Mets	43	37	12	2	0	1	6	6	0	0	1	.324	.419	.459	.878	.135	.367	14	14	.374	145	+2	-0	-0	-0	+1	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	NYM	672	550	159	26	2	38	114	120	3	20	8	.289	.414	.551	.965	.262	.307	18	17	.421	180	+61	+1	-10	-7	+19	6.5
TOT	27	MLB	NYM	715	587	171	28	2	39	120	126	3	20	9	.291	.414	.545	.959	.254	.311	18	17	.418	178	+63	+0	-10	-8	+20	6.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB	NYM	707	588	167	27	2	40	110	118	3	20	8	.284	.399	.541	.940	.257	.292	17	16	.409	171	+57	+1	-11	-8	+20	6.1
2028	29	MLB	NYM	695	579	164	27	2	39	108	118	3	18	7	.283	.399	.539	.937	.256	.291	17	16	.407	169	+55	+1	-11	-7	+20	5.7
2029	30	MLB	NYM	683	569	159	26	2	38	106	118	3	17	6	.279	.395	.533	.928	.253	.289	17	16	.404	167	+52	+1	-12	-7	+19	5.4
2030	31	MLB	NYM	668	558	155	25	2	37	103	118	2	13	5	.278	.392	.529	.921	.251	.288	18	15	.400	164	+48	+1	-12	-7	+19	4.9
2031	32	MLB	NYM	649	542	147	24	1	35	100	118	2	10	4	.271	.387	.513	.900	.242	.286	18	15	.395	160	+44	+0	-13	-7	+18	4.4
2032	33	MLB	NYM	619	517	137	22	1	32	95	117	2	7	3	.265	.381	.497	.878	.232	.285	19	15	.389	156	+39	+0	-13	-7	+18	3.8
2033	34	MLB	NYM	569	475	125	20	1	29	87	113	2	5	2	.263	.379	.493	.872	.229	.283	20	15	.381	150	+32	+0	-13	-6	+16	3.0
2034	35	MLB	NYM	512	428	109	17	1	25	78	106	1	4	1	.255	.371	.474	.845	.220	.280	21	15	.372	143	+25	+0	-13	-5	+15	2.2
2035	36	MLB	NYM	449	377	93	14	1	21	68	98	1	2	1	.247	.363	.456	.819	.210	.277	22	15	.362	135	+18	+0	-13	-5	+13	1.3
2036	37	MLB	NYM	383	322	78	12	1	17	57	87	1	1	0	.242	.358	.444	.802	.202	.272	23	15	.351	127	+12	+0	-13	-4	+11	0.6
2037	38	MLB	NYM	311	261	60	9	1	12	46	73	1	0	0	.230	.347	.410	.757	.180	.267	23	15	.339	117	+6	+0	-12	-3	+9	-0.1
2038	39	MLB	NYM	236	200	44	6	0	9	34	57	0	0	0	.220	.333	.385	.718	.165	.261	24	14	.326	108	+2	+0	-12	-3	+7	-0.6
2039	40	MLB	NYM	163	138	30	4	0	6	24	39	0	0	0	.217	.333	.377	.710	.159	.258	24	15	.321	104	+1	+0	-11	-2	+5	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			12607	10418	2835	472	40	637	2058	2319	43	221	77	.272	.394	.509	.903	.236	.292	18	16	.389	156	+798	+13	-220	-135	+357	83.0
/ 162G	—			650	537	146	24	2	33	106	120	2	11	4	.272	.393	.508	.902	.236	.292	18	16	.389	156	+41	+1	-11	-7	+18	4.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	GCL Nationals	183	169	61	11	3	5	14	25	0	5	2	.361	.410	.550	.960	.189	.403	14	8	.422	181	+17	+0	—	—	+5	2.3
2017	18	A	Hagerstown Suns	96	86	31	5	0	3	10	8	0	1	2	.360	.427	.523	.950	.163	.373	8	10	.421	181	+9	-1	—	—	+3	1.1
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	27	25	8	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	.320	.370	.440	.810	.120	.333	4	7	.360	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2018	19	MLB	Washington Nationals	494	414	121	25	1	22	79	99	0	5	2	.292	.406	.517	.923	.225	.338	20	16	.406	169	+39	+0	-6	-7	+14	4.0
2018	19	AA	Harrisburg Senators	35	31	10	2	0	2	4	7	0	1	0	.323	.400	.581	.981	.258	.364	20	11	.427	185	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2018	19	A+	Potomac Nationals	73	62	23	3	1	7	11	8	0	0	1	.371	.466	.790	1.256	.419	.340	11	15	.528	262	+13	-0	—	—	+2	1.5
2018	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	74	59	22	5	3	5	14	13	0	2	0	.373	.493	.814	1.307	.441	.405	18	19	.535	267	+14	+0	—	—	+2	1.7
2019	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	659	542	153	32	5	34	108	132	3	12	1	.282	.404	.548	.952	.266	.312	20	16	.412	174	+55	+2	+0	-7	+19	7.0
2020	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	196	154	54	14	0	13	41	28	1	6	2	.351	.490	.695	1.185	.344	.363	14	21	.504	244	+32	+0	-3	-2	+6	3.4
2021	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	654	502	157	20	2	29	145	93	2	9	7	.313	.468	.534	1.002	.221	.332	14	22	.440	195	+70	-1	-1	-7	+19	8.1
2022	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	664	524	127	25	2	27	135	96	4	6	2	.242	.401	.452	.853	.210	.249	14	20	.384	152	+39	+0	-16	-7	+19	3.5
2023	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	708	568	156	32	1	35	132	129	2	12	5	.275	.413	.519	.932	.245	.296	18	19	.408	170	+56	+0	-7	-8	+20	6.4
2024	25	MLB	New York Yankees	713	576	166	31	4	41	129	119	4	7	4	.288	.422	.569	.991	.281	.298	17	18	.429	187	+70	-0	-4	-8	+20	8.0
2025	26	MLB	New York Mets	715	577	152	20	1	43	127	137	3	38	4	.263	.398	.525	.923	.262	.270	19	18	.402	166	+53	+6	-14	-8	+20	5.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			4803	3857	1086	199	16	244	896	833	19	95	27	.282	.419	.531	.950	.250	.300	17	19	.415	176	+413	+8	-51	-53	+136	46.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Soto (OGILVIE)	27	60	60	40	60	.288/.412/.550	.262	.300	41	21	16%	17%	180	+8.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Lance Berkman 2003 · MLB	27	57→65	66→70	43→50	64	.303/.405/.578	.275	.325	32	7	18%	14%	184	+7.6	.297/.415/.542	.245	.323	27	7	16%	16%	178	+7.1	.305/.427/.564	.259	.320	31	5	15%	17%	173	+7.2
★Alex Bregman 2021 · MLB	27	54→57	62→65	47→50	68	.283/.396/.534	.252	.283	28	6	13%	15%	170	+6.6	.262/.363/.451	.189	.272	21	3	13%	13%	136	+4.2	.258/.349/.445	.187	.265	22	2	12%	11%	125	+3.9
★Bryce Harper 2018 · MLB	25	55→60	63→65	46→50	67	.286/.402/.533	.246	.317	30	11	20%	16%	170	+6.6	.258/.381/.490	.232	.304	28	12	23%	16%	152	+5.3	.287/.396/.523	.236	.338	27	13	22%	14%	153	+4.7
★J.D. Drew 2002 · MLB	26	58→60	61→65	52→50	61	.299/.394/.530	.231	.331	29	18	19%	13%	167	+6.4	.281/.378/.498	.217	.314	26	11	19%	13%	153	+5.4	.290/.414/.526	.236	.323	26	6	18%	17%	167	+5.5
★Freddie Freeman 2018 · MLB	28	58→65	64→65	47→50	58	.300/.393/.564	.264	.344	30	7	21%	12%	176	+7.0	.302/.391/.542	.240	.342	27	8	19%	12%	170	+6.6	.312/.399/.517	.205	.345	22	12	15%	11%	156	+6.6
★Albert Pujols 2008 · MLB	28	60→67	68→70	44→50	69	.324/.423/.599	.275	.305	35	7	9%	14%	196	+8.4	.329/.435/.619	.290	.316	35	9	9%	15%	206	+9.0	.331/.442/.640	.309	.314	38	11	10%	16%	178	+8.1
★Joey Votto 2011 · MLB	27	61→70	60→65	47→50	60	.309/.398/.541	.232	.349	27	10	19%	12%	172	+6.7	.309/.421/.523	.214	.362	22	8	19%	16%	176	+7.0	.317/.450/.543	.225	.355	25	7	16%	19%	172	+7.7
★Alex Rodriguez 2001 · MLB	26	57→60	67→70	50→55	64	.303/.406/.573	.270	.324	34	13	18%	14%	183	+7.4	.305/.396/.601	.296	.316	41	12	18%	12%	187	+7.8	.302/.396/.609	.307	.307	43	12	17%	11%	180	+8.8
★Chipper Jones 2001 · MLB	29	56→66	63→65	46→50	66	.298/.391/.539	.241	.288	30	12	10%	13%	169	+6.5	.315/.413/.555	.240	.323	29	8	12%	14%	181	+7.3	.318/.422/.548	.231	.331	27	6	13%	15%	165	+6.9
★Josh Hamilton 2008 · MLB	27	53→63	63→65	47→50	53	.281/.354/.522	.240	.307	32	10	20%	9%	150	+5.2	.293/.357/.507	.214	.331	26	9	19%	8%	147	+5.0	.297/.359/.534	.236	.334	30	8	20%	8%	144	+4.6
★Yordan Alvarez 2023 · MLB	26	52→57	66→70	45	56	.282/.368/.545	.263	.311	34	3	21%	11%	162	+6.0	.294/.389/.557	.263	.315	34	4	18%	12%	173	+6.8	.297/.396/.552	.255	.314	33	3	17%	12%	161	+4.5
★Vladimir Guerrero 2002 · MLB	27	59→63	67→70	52→55	56	.317/.384/.591	.275	.316	34	21	13%	9%	180	+7.3	.324/.400/.581	.257	.325	32	23	11%	11%	183	+7.5	.331/.410/.587	.256	.328	33	21	11%	11%	168	+6.6
●Christian Yelich 2020 · MLB	28	60→64	64→70	57→55	58	.310/.397/.564	.253	.351	31	21	20%	12%	178	+7.1	.271/.376/.479	.208	.332	25	17	24%	14%	147	+5.0	.277/.365/.449	.172	.340	21	25	23%	11%	125	+3.0
●Troy Tulowitzki 2012 · MLB	27	56→59	59→65	50	57	.292/.365/.511	.219	.307	26	13	15%	10%	151	+5.3	.291/.368/.501	.210	.309	26	6	15%	10%	150	+5.2	.297/.376/.495	.198	.333	25	1	18%	10%	144	+3.8
★Aaron Judge 2020 · MLB	28	54→64	67→80	44→50	60	.272/.388/.538	.266	.357	35	7	31%	15%	167	+6.4	.277/.374/.540	.263	.340	36	7	28%	13%	163	+6.1	.300/.431/.653	.352	.344	48	9	26%	18%	194	+8.5
★Mike Trout 2018 · MLB	26	58→65	64→70	55→60	67	.299/.420/.562	.263	.339	30	20	20%	16%	185	+7.6	.298/.434/.599	.301	.329	37	18	20%	18%	199	+8.6	.295/.439/.616	.321	.320	41	15	21%	18%	184	+6.1
★Mookie Betts 2020 · MLB	27	56→63	60→65	55	63	.290/.381/.519	.229	.300	26	20	14%	13%	160	+5.9	.277/.366/.502	.225	.293	27	15	16%	12%	150	+5.2	.285/.373/.529	.244	.294	29	14	15%	11%	156	+5.8
★Todd Helton 2003 · MLB	29	63→69	68→70	45	67	.334/.431/.625	.292	.339	34	6	13%	14%	206	+9.0	.336/.443/.595	.259	.351	27	3	12%	16%	202	+8.8	.340/.457/.591	.251	.355	25	2	11%	17%	188	+8.7
★David Wright 2009 · MLB	26	60→66	59→60	53→55	61	.306/.392/.526	.221	.334	25	18	16%	12%	166	+6.3	.290/.374/.478	.188	.350	20	19	21%	12%	146	+4.9	.294/.381/.482	.189	.338	20	17	18%	12%	141	+4.1
★Troy Glaus 2003 · MLB	26	47→52	65→70	46→50	62	.258/.367/.510	.253	.285	32	10	22%	14%	152	+5.3	.252/.352/.490	.238	.279	31	8	21%	13%	141	+4.6	.254/.361/.501	.246	.280	33	2	22%	13%	142	+4.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)