Jesse Winker — OGILVIE

Jesse WinkerLF New York Mets

Age 32 L/L 6'2" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 287 proj PA

wRC+†vL 93113vR 121

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .340 / .381

PA287

HR7

SB5

K%22

BB%12

ISO148

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

768.3%

xwOBA

550.314

POWER45

Barrel%

396.8

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE60

Chase%

9023.3%

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 584 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

104

480

—

wRC+

120

▶▶R

wOBA

307

343

▶R

ISO

101

163

▶▶R

BABIP

328

298

◀L

26.9%

20.2%

▶▶R

BB%

10.6%

12.1%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$1.0M	-$0.9M
Totals		$2M		$1.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	275	245	63	12	2	4	23	72	4	1	2	257	331	371	702	114	347	26	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	275	228	77	16	3	5	40	50	4	1	2	338	445	500	945	162	414	18	15	417	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	486	439	98	15	6	10	41	97	4	6	1	223	295	353	649	130	263	20	8	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	486	417	117	18	5	16	63	75	4	6	1	281	380	463	843	182	308	15	13	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	3 teams	—	425	367	77	19	0	10	51	118	1	6	3	210	308	343	651	134	273	28	12	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	3 teams	—	425	350	104	24	1	18	68	85	1	6	3	297	413	526	939	229	340	20	16	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	526	476	128	23	2	11	41	112	6	8	4	269	335	395	730	126	329	21	8	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	526	443	125	24	2	13	74	83	6	8	4	282	392	433	825	151	320	16	14	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	2 teams	—	463	415	123	17	0	5	39	79	4	0	0	296	362	373	736	77	351	17	8	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	2 teams	—	463	393	121	22	0	5	61	63	4	0	0	308	406	402	808	94	352	14	13	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	484	434	115	24	0	8	39	81	5	3	5	265	333	376	708	111	306	17	8	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	484	420	130	29	0	9	53	70	5	3	5	310	393	443	836	133	350	14	11	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	334	281	82	15	0	7	49	46	2	0	0	292	401	420	821	128	328	14	15	358	132	+12	+0	-6	-4	+9	1.2
2018	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	334	281	84	16	0	7	49	46	2	0	0	299	407	431	837	132	336	14	15	377	147	+18	+0	-6	-4	+9	1.8
2019	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	384	338	88	16	2	15	38	60	8	0	2	260	349	453	802	192	278	16	10	353	128	+12	-1	-7	-4	+11	1.1
2019	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	384	338	91	17	2	16	38	60	8	0	2	269	357	473	830	204	286	16	10	368	140	+17	-1	-7	-4	+11	1.6
2020	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	149	37	7	0	11	28	46	5	1	0	248	385	517	901	268	280	25	15	392	158	+12	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.5
2020	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	149	38	7	0	12	28	46	5	1	0	255	390	544	934	289	283	25	15	406	169	+14	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.7
2021	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	485	423	126	31	1	23	53	75	9	1	0	298	388	539	927	241	317	15	11	399	164	+35	+0	-8	-5	+14	3.7
2021	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	485	423	129	32	1	24	53	75	9	1	0	305	394	556	949	251	324	15	11	415	176	+42	+0	-8	-5	+14	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	547	456	103	16	0	15	84	103	4	0	0	226	351	360	711	134	258	19	15	319	102	+1	+0	-9	-6	+15	0.2
2022	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	547	456	100	15	0	14	84	103	4	0	0	219	346	344	690	125	251	19	15	318	102	+1	+0	-9	-6	+15	0.2
2023	29	MLB	3 teams	—	305	257	59	9	0	5	43	70	4	0	3	230	349	323	672	93	295	23	14	310	96	-2	-1	-0	-3	+9	0.3
2023	29	MLB	3 teams	—	305	249	58	9	0	5	51	66	4	0	3	233	372	329	701	96	296	22	17	329	110	+3	-1	-0	-3	+9	0.8
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	508	430	109	23	0	14	63	106	10	14	4	253	362	405	766	151	304	21	12	339	117	+10	+1	-7	-5	+14	1.4
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	508	430	109	23	0	14	63	106	10	14	4	253	362	405	766	151	304	21	12	345	122	+13	+1	-7	-5	+14	1.6
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	81	70	16	5	2	1	9	21	0	1	0	229	316	400	716	171	300	26	11	300	88	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.0
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	81	70	16	5	2	1	9	21	0	1	0	229	316	400	716	171	300	26	11	312	97	-0	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	NYM	—	287	246	58	13	1	7	35	63	4	5	2	236	340	382	722	146	288	22	12	328	109	+3	+0	-1	-3	+8	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	NYM	100%	257	220	51	11	1	6	31	58	4	4	1	232	337	373	710	141	281	23	12	320	103	+1	+0	-5	-3	+7	0.0
2028	34	MLB	NYM	100%	215	184	41	8	1	5	26	50	3	2	1	223	329	359	687	136	273	23	12	309	95	-1	+0	-6	-2	+6	-0.4
2027	33	MLB	NYM	100%	257	220	51	11	1	6	31	58	4	4	1	232	337	373	710	141	281	23	12	309	95	-2	+0	-5	-3	+7	-0.2
2028	34	MLB	NYM	100%	215	184	41	8	1	5	26	50	3	2	1	223	329	359	687	136	272	23	12	299	87	-3	+0	-6	-2	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3328	2838	728	146	7	107	422	640	49	24	9	257	362	426	788	169	295	19	13	351	127	+102	+1	-50	-41	+94	10.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	554	142	29	1	21	82	125	10	5	2	256	362	426	788	170	294	19	13	351	127	+20	+0	-10	-8	+18	2.1
Career	—			—	6245	5430	1374	264	18	157	693	1257	77	52	28	253	346	395	741	142	300	20	11	329	110	+69	-1	-52	-67	+177	12.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	142	27	2	16	72	131	8	5	3	251	344	391	735	140	299	20	11	329	110	+7	-0	-5	-7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	275	228	77	16	3	5	40	50	4	1	2	338	445	500	945	162	414	18	15	417	177	+24	-1	—	—	+8	3.2
2013	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	486	417	117	18	5	16	63	75	4	6	1	281	380	463	843	182	308	15	13	374	145	+25	+1	—	—	+14	4.0
2014	20	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	92	77	16	5	0	2	14	22	0	0	0	208	330	351	680	143	259	24	15	310	95	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2014	20	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	249	205	65	15	0	13	40	46	1	5	1	317	431	580	1.011	263	349	18	16	435	191	+26	+1	—	—	+7	3.4
2014	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	84	68	23	4	1	3	14	17	0	1	2	338	451	559	1.010	221	400	20	17	433	189	+8	-1	—	—	+2	1.0
2015	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	526	443	125	24	2	13	74	83	6	8	4	282	392	433	825	151	320	16	14	371	142	+25	+0	—	—	+15	4.1
2016	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	448	380	115	22	0	3	59	59	4	0	0	303	402	384	786	82	347	13	13	357	132	+16	+0	—	—	+13	2.9
2016	22	ROK	AZL Reds	—	15	13	6	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	462	533	923	1.456	462	571	27	13	612	326	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2017	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	137	121	36	7	0	7	15	24	0	1	1	298	375	529	904	231	322	18	11	394	159	+9	-0	-1	-5	+4	0.7
2017	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	347	299	94	22	0	2	38	46	5	2	4	314	401	408	809	94	359	13	11	363	136	+14	-1	—	—	+10	2.3
2018	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	334	281	84	16	0	7	49	46	2	0	0	299	407	431	837	132	336	14	15	377	147	+18	+0	-6	-4	+9	1.8
2019	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	384	338	91	17	2	16	38	60	8	0	2	269	357	473	830	204	286	16	10	368	140	+17	-1	-7	-4	+11	1.6
2020	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	183	149	38	7	0	12	28	46	5	1	0	255	390	544	934	289	283	25	15	406	169	+14	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.7
2021	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	485	423	129	32	1	24	53	75	9	1	0	305	394	556	949	251	324	15	11	415	176	+42	+0	-8	-5	+14	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	547	456	100	15	0	14	84	103	4	0	0	219	346	344	690	125	251	19	15	318	102	+1	+0	-9	-6	+15	0.2
2023	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	197	166	33	5	0	1	26	51	4	0	0	199	321	247	568	48	278	26	13	274	68	-7	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
2023	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	93	70	20	3	0	4	23	13	0	0	3	286	462	500	962	214	302	14	25	430	187	+9	-1	—	—	+3	1.1
2023	29	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	15	13	5	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	385	467	462	928	77	455	13	13	420	180	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	508	430	109	23	0	14	63	106	10	14	4	253	362	405	766	151	304	21	12	345	122	+13	+1	-7	-5	+14	1.6
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	81	70	16	5	2	1	9	21	0	1	0	229	316	400	716	171	300	26	11	312	97	-0	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2856	2434	636	127	5	96	365	532	42	18	7	261	367	436	803	175	297	19	13	359	133	+106	+1	-39	-35	+81	11.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Austin Kearnslast yr '12 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,148 PA	11	4,148	121	33	254	351	415	-42	-4	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	19	5	254	351	415	-6.8	-0.6	2.5	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	3,615	114	29	257	358	425	-39	-59	15.9	15.4
	/162	664	21	5	257	358	425	-7.1	-10.8	2.9	pk7: 15
#2Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	10	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	13.9	13.3
	/162	664	21	4	260	343	445	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#3Eric Hinskelast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,310 PA	12	4,310	137	61	249	332	430	-34	-33	13.0	12.9
	/162	664	21	9	249	332	430	-5.2	-5.1	2.0	pk7: 13
#4Matt Stairslast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,099 PA	12	4,099	163	16	255	350	454	-47	-62	13.4	12.7
	/162	664	26	3	255	350	454	-7.7	-10.0	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	13	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
	/162	664	22	5	242	343	425	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#6David Delluccilast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,658 PA	10	2,658	94	36	249	336	439	-26	-28	7.6	7.9
	/162	664	23	9	249	336	439	-6.5	-7.0	1.9	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesse Winker (OGILVIE)	32	50	45	40	60	235/340/381	146	288	7	5	22%	12%	109	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Descalso 2019 · MLB	32	47→55	50	49→45	59	233/337/400	168	288	16	4	24%	13%	111	+2.5	202/300/336	134	277	14	6	29%	12%	80	+0.4	160/263/245	85	221	9	5	29%	12%	40	-0.9
✕Ben Gamel 2023 · MLB	31	49→59	47→50	43→50	54	238/328/381	142	303	13	7	24%	11%	103	+1.9	236/330/383	147	321	15	7	28%	12%	105	+2.1	228/330/376	148	321	15	6	31%	13%	99	+0.8
✕Todd Hollandsworth 2005 · MLB	32	55→56	53→55	43→50	52	275/341/459	184	317	19	7	20%	9%	128	+3.7	249/301/408	159	295	16	6	20%	7%	98	+1.6	243/288/393	150	289	14	4	21%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Rafael Ortega 2023 · MLB	32	50→54	48→55	48→55	55	249/329/390	141	294	15	18	20%	10%	105	+2.1	225/314/362	137	278	14	21	23%	11%	92	+1.2	210/310/339	129	260	13	26	23%	12%	83	+0.4
✕Michael McKenry 2017 · MLB	32	43→47	47→55	44→40	53	212/308/356	143	280	14	7	28%	11%	89	+0.9	202/288/319	117	283	11	6	30%	10%	71	-0.3	165/262/251	86	237	7	0	31%	11%	42	-1.0
✕Mike Kinkade 2005 · MLB	32	50→60	50	42→45	49	248/349/405	157	289	17	8	20%	7%	120	+3.1	262/332/401	139	302	13	8	17%	5%	111	+2.5	272/340/407	135	315	12	7	17%	4%	113	+1.8
✕Nick Martini 2023 · MLB	33	48→58	46→55	46→45	48	234/315/366	132	295	14	7	24%	8%	94	+1.3	229/311/391	162	278	18	3	24%	9%	99	+1.7	216/305/367	151	261	16	0	23%	9%	88	+0.6
✕Brock Holt 2019 · MLB	31	50→60	44→45	42→50	53	244/326/360	116	293	11	10	20%	10%	97	+1.5	247/326/355	108	309	8	8	21%	10%	95	+1.4	239/319/331	92	303	5	7	21%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Russ Johnson 2006 · MLB	33	48→47	47→50	42→45	50	241/303/386	145	280	14	9	19%	8%	94	+1.3	235/301/370	135	256	14	6	14%	8%	89	+0.9	231/301/360	129	245	14	4	13%	9%	84	+0.4
✕Jon Weber 2010 · AAA	32	49→54	48→50	41→50	46	244/300/392	149	300	14	8	23%	7%	94	+1.3	231/288/346	115	286	9	10	21%	7%	77	+0.1	218/279/294	75	269	2	10	18%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Ryan Spilborghs 2011 · MLB	31	51→61	46→50	44→50	54	248/327/388	140	296	13	10	20%	10%	105	+2.1	245/310/368	123	305	12	8	22%	8%	92	+1.2	248/310/360	112	312	10	6	23%	7%	88	+0.6
✕Troy O'Leary 2002 · MLB	32	49→53	51→50	39→30	50	249/309/419	170	274	17	3	17%	7%	105	+2.1	250/319/386	136	285	13	6	17%	9%	100	+1.7	254/331/362	108	292	9	5	15%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Mike Freeman 2020 · MLB	32	48→58	44→45	44→55	46	237/301/353	115	309	13	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	224/296/341	117	303	12	8	28%	8%	79	+0.3	196/275/293	97	271	9	6	29%	9%	54	-0.7
●John Jaso 2016 · MLB	32	55→57	49→50	44→45	57	269/353/429	160	313	14	5	18%	11%	125	+3.5	253/343/417	164	298	15	4	19%	11%	118	+3.0	246/344/411	164	290	15	1	19%	12%	114	+1.6
✕A.J. Ellis 2013 · MLB	32	53→56	45	41→40	60	258/361/386	128	307	12	2	19%	12%	118	+3.0	237/336/362	125	276	13	2	18%	12%	102	+1.8	224/330/341	117	257	13	0	17%	13%	89	+0.5
●David DeJesus 2012 · MLB	32	55→62	46→50	43→45	54	269/342/410	141	303	12	6	15%	9%	116	+2.8	253/335/398	145	292	11	7	16%	10%	110	+2.4	250/337/394	144	289	11	6	16%	10%	107	+1.6
●Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	104	+2.0	233/315/424	191	267	23	6	22%	8%	110	+2.4	228/313/423	195	258	24	4	22%	8%	107	+2.1
✕Michael Tucker 2005 · MLB	34	51→52	49→55	48→55	57	253/337/412	160	296	15	11	20%	11%	115	+2.7	234/325/368	134	279	12	9	19%	11%	98	+1.6	216/314/335	118	261	10	9	20%	11%	82	+0.3
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	50→46	47→55	42→40	44	249/293/385	136	299	15	6	22%	6%	89	+0.9	244/292/401	157	299	17	4	23%	6%	93	+1.3	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	44→43	51→50	39→30	52	225/307/380	155	281	19	2	27%	11%	95	+1.4	230/320/383	153	314	18	7	30%	11%	101	+1.8	216/328/374	158	307	19	5	32%	14%	99	+0.8