Mark Canha

LF Kansas City Royals

Age 38 R/R 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB HR -15%K -8% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	34	MLBMIL	507	.262/.359/.400	11	11	118	1.6
2024	35	MLBSF	462	.242/.348/.346	7	7	102	0.2
2025	36	AAAKC	33	.222/.364/.370	1	0	49	—	.172/.273/.310
2025	36	MLBKC	125	.212/.276/.265	1	0	56	-0.7
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBKC	132	.228/.317/.329	2	2	88	-0.0
2028PROJ	39	MLBKC	80	.217/.305/.305	1	0	78	-1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Speed58

xwOBA46

Avg EV35

Bat Spd25

Barrel%16

CompsRaul Sanchez (age 38) · Jose Espinoza (age 38) · Doug Bernier (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9188vR 78

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .317 / .329

PA132

HR2

K%21

BB%9

BABIP282

ISO95

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

200.227

POWER

Barrel%

163.8

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

2568.7

SPEED

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 587 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

198

389

—

wRC+

102

◀◀L

wOBA

319

288

◀L

ISO

105

087

◀◀L

BABIP

321

273

◀L

19.7%

20.8%

◀L

BB%

9.1%

9.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.4M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	21	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	1	176	300	176	476		176	5	10	231	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	455	384	106	22	0	25	59	85	5	7	3	276	379	529	908	253	288	19	13	392	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	478	406	119	24	3	6	54	75	9	1	3	293	388	411	799	118	339	16	11	356	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	504	425	116	32	2	13	54	102	15	6	1	273	374	449	824	176	327	20	11	362	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	537	465	141	28	3	20	57	112	8	3	1	303	389	505	894	202	356	21	11	390	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	67	60	6	1	0	1	2	21	3	1	0	100	169	167	336	67	125	31	3	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	485	441	112	22	3	16	33	96	8	7	2	254	317	426	744	172	289	20	7	329	113	+7	+1	-9	-9	+11	0.1
2016	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	44	41	5	0	0	3	0	20	1	0	1	122	143	341	484	220	105	45	0	200	31	-4	-0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2017	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	187	173	36	13	1	5	7	56	6	2	0	208	263	382	645	173	274	30	4	286	82	-4	+0	-6	-5	+4	-1.2
2017	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	317	272	77	25	3	12	34	62	7	4	0	283	377	529	906	246	323	20	11	392	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	411	365	91	22	0	17	34	88	10	1	2	249	330	449	779	200	282	21	8	345	121	+10	-1	-2	+1	+9	1.8
2019	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	497	410	112	16	3	26	67	107	18	3	2	273	398	517	915	244	308	22	13	403	165	+38	-0	-3	+2	+11	4.8
2020	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	243	191	47	12	2	5	37	54	10	4	0	246	395	408	803	162	307	22	15	360	130	+9	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.2
2021	32	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	625	519	120	22	4	17	77	128	27	12	2	231	360	387	747	156	274	20	12	341	120	+15	+2	-2	-7	+14	2.2
2022	33	MLB	New York Mets	—	542	462	123	24	0	13	48	97	28	3	1	266	370	403	772	136	309	18	9	350	127	+18	+0	-6	-6	+12	1.8
2023	34	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	507	435	114	25	1	11	49	79	17	11	1	262	359	400	759	138	293	16	10	341	118	+11	+2	-2	-5	+11	1.6
2024	35	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	462	393	95	20	0	7	51	96	13	7	0	242	348	346	694	104	298	21	11	318	102	+1	+1	-3	-8	+10	0.2
2025	36	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	125	113	24	3	0	1	7	24	3	0	1	212	276	265	542	53	256	19	6	249	56	-6	-0	-1	-2	+3	-0.7
2025	36	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	33	27	6	1	0	1	6	9	0	0	0	222	364	370	734	148	294	27	18	339	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4128	3543	879	179	14	121	410	845	141	50	12	248	349	409	758	161	290	20	10	340	117	+81	+5	-37	-42	+89	9.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	21	18	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	167	250	167	417		143	5	5	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	455	408	89	18	0	18	35	119	5	7	3	218	288	395	683	176	247	26	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	478	420	101	22	2	5	40	111	9	1	3	240	320	338	658	98	298	23	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	504	441	108	29	2	10	38	121	15	6	1	245	326	388	714	143	300	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	537	481	122	24	3	14	41	143	8	3	1	254	323	403	726	150	321	27	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	485	441	113	21	3	18	33	96	8	7	2	256	320	440	759	184	289	20	7	335	113	+7	+1	-9	-9	+11	0.1
2016	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	44	41	5	0	0	3	0	20	1	0	1	122	143	341	484	220	105	45	0	214	31	-4	-0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2017	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	187	173	36	13	1	5	7	56	6	2	0	208	263	382	645	173	274	30	4	289	82	-4	+0	-6	-5	+4	-1.2
2017	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	317	283	66	19	3	11	23	80	7	4	0	233	307	438	745	205	271	25	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	411	368	92	21	0	19	31	88	10	1	2	250	325	462	787	212	282	21	8	347	121	+10	-1	-2	+1	+9	1.8
2019	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	497	411	114	15	3	29	66	107	18	3	2	277	400	540	940	263	308	22	13	411	165	+38	-0	-3	+2	+11	4.8
2020	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	192	47	12	2	5	36	54	10	4	0	245	391	406	797	161	307	22	15	360	130	+9	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.2
2021	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	625	519	121	21	4	19	77	128	27	12	2	233	361	399	760	166	274	20	12	346	120	+15	+2	-2	-7	+14	2.2
2022	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	542	463	126	25	0	13	47	97	28	3	1	272	374	410	784	138	309	18	9	356	127	+18	+0	-6	-6	+12	1.8
2023	34	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	507	436	115	27	1	10	48	79	17	11	1	264	359	399	758	135	293	16	9	343	118	+11	+2	-2	-5	+11	1.6
2024	35	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	462	395	97	20	0	8	49	96	13	7	0	246	348	357	705	111	298	21	11	319	102	+1	+1	-3	-8	+10	0.2
2025	36	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	125	113	24	3	0	1	7	24	3	0	1	212	276	265	542	53	256	19	6	251	56	-6	-0	-1	-2	+3	-0.7
2025	36	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	33	29	5	1	0	1	4	11	0	0	0	172	273	310	583	138	227	33	12	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	21	18	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	167	250	167	417		167	5	5	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	1	176	300	176	476		176	5	10	231	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	455	408	89	18	0	18	35	119	5	7	3	218	288	395	683	176	255	26	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	455	384	106	22	0	25	59	85	5	7	3	276	379	529	908	253	288	19	13	392	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	478	420	101	22	2	5	40	111	9	1	3	240	320	338	658	98	308	23	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	478	406	119	24	3	6	54	75	9	1	3	293	388	411	799	118	339	16	11	356	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	504	441	108	29	2	10	38	121	15	6	1	245	326	388	714	143	311	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA RAW	Jacksonville Suns	—	504	425	116	32	2	13	54	102	15	6	1	273	374	449	824	176	327	20	11	362	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	604	537	138	27	3	16	47	161	11	4	1	257	329	408	737	151	331	27	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	604	525	147	29	3	21	59	133	11	4	1	280	365	467	831	187	332	22	10	364	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	485	441	113	21	3	18	33	96	8	7	2	256	320	440	759	184	288	20	7	335	113	+7	+1	-9	-9	+11	0.1
2015	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	485	441	112	22	3	16	33	96	8	7	2	254	317	426	744	172	289	20	7	329	113	+7	+1	-9	-9	+11	0.1
2016	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	44	41	5	0	0	3	0	20	1	0	1	122	143	341	484	220	105	45	0	214	31	-4	-0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2016	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	44	41	5	0	0	3	0	20	1	0	1	122	143	341	484	220	105	45	0	200	31	-4	-0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2017	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	456	102	32	4	16	30	136	13	6	0	224	291	417	707	193	279	27	6	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	504	445	113	38	4	17	41	118	13	6	0	254	335	472	807	218	306	23	8	352	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	411	368	92	21	0	19	31	88	10	1	2	250	325	462	787	212	278	21	8	347	121	+10	-1	-2	+1	+9	1.8
2018	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	411	365	91	22	0	17	34	88	10	1	2	249	330	449	779	200	282	21	8	345	121	+10	-1	-2	+1	+9	1.8
2019	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	497	411	114	15	3	29	66	107	18	3	2	277	400	540	940	263	307	22	13	411	165	+38	-0	-3	+2	+11	4.8
2019	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	497	410	112	16	3	26	67	107	18	3	2	273	398	517	915	244	308	22	13	403	165	+38	-0	-3	+2	+11	4.8
2020	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	192	47	12	2	5	36	54	10	4	0	245	391	406	797	161	304	22	15	360	130	+9	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.2
2020	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	243	191	47	12	2	5	37	54	10	4	0	246	395	408	803	162	307	22	15	360	130	+9	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.2
2021	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	625	519	121	21	4	19	77	128	27	12	2	233	361	399	760	166	273	20	12	346	120	+15	+2	-2	-7	+14	2.2
2021	32	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	625	519	120	22	4	17	77	128	27	12	2	231	360	387	747	156	274	20	12	341	120	+15	+2	-2	-7	+14	2.2
2022	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	542	463	126	25	0	13	47	97	28	3	1	272	374	410	784	138	317	18	9	356	127	+18	+0	-6	-6	+12	1.8
2022	33	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	542	462	123	24	0	13	48	97	28	3	1	266	370	403	772	136	309	18	9	350	127	+18	+0	-6	-6	+12	1.8
2023	34	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	507	436	115	27	1	10	48	79	17	11	1	264	359	399	758	135	297	16	9	343	118	+11	+2	-2	-5	+11	1.6
2023	34	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	507	435	114	25	1	11	49	79	17	11	1	262	359	400	759	138	293	16	10	341	118	+11	+2	-2	-5	+11	1.6
2024	35	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	462	395	97	20	0	8	49	96	13	7	0	246	348	357	705	111	301	21	11	319	102	+1	+1	-3	-8	+10	0.2
2024	35	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	462	393	95	20	0	7	51	96	13	7	0	242	348	346	694	104	298	21	11	318	102	+1	+1	-3	-8	+10	0.2
2025	36	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	158	142	29	4	0	2	11	35	3	0	1	204	276	275	550	70	252	22	7	249	55	-8	-0	-1	-2	+3	-0.9
2025	36	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	158	140	30	4	0	2	13	33	3	0	1	214	295	286	581	71	262	21	8	268	55	-8	-0	-1	-2	+3	-0.9
2010	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	21	19	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	158	250	158	408		143	5	5	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	455	412	89	18	0	18	35	119	5	7	3	216	288	391	679	175	247	26	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	478	426	101	22	2	5	40	111	9	1	3	237	320	333	653	96	298	23	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	504	446	108	29	2	10	38	121	15	6	1	242	326	383	709	141	300	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	604	541	138	27	3	16	47	161	11	4	1	255	329	405	734	150	321	27	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	485	441	113	21	3	18	33	96	8	7	2	256	320	440	759	184	289	20	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	44	43	5	0	0	3	0	20	1	0	1	116	143	326	468	209	105	45	0	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	504	456	102	32	4	16	30	136	13	6	0	224	291	417	707	193	272	27	6	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	411	367	92	21	0	19	31	88	10	1	2	251	325	463	788	213	282	21	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	497	410	114	15	3	29	66	107	18	3	2	278	400	541	941	263	308	22	13	411	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	195	47	12	2	5	36	54	10	4	0	241	391	400	791	159	307	22	15	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	625	516	121	21	4	19	77	128	27	12	2	234	361	401	762	167	274	20	12	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	542	462	126	25	0	13	47	97	28	3	1	273	374	411	785	139	309	18	9	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	507	437	115	27	1	10	48	79	17	11	1	263	359	398	757	135	293	16	9	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	462	397	97	20	0	8	49	96	13	7	0	244	348	355	703	111	298	21	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	158	143	29	4	0	2	11	35	3	0	1	203	276	273	548	70	250	22	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	35	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	462	397	97	20	0	8	49	96	13	7	0	244	348	355	703	111	298	21	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	158	143	29	4	0	2	11	35	3	0	1	203	276	273	548	70	250	22	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	38	MLB MLE	KC	100%	213	187	43	8	1	3	20	45	4	3	1	231	319	335	654	104	284	21	9	299	88	-3	+0	-0	-2	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	38	MLB CTX	KC	100%	132	116	26	5	0	2	12	28	3	2	0	228	317	329	646	101	282	21	9	296	88	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	KC	100%	80	71	15	3	0	1	7	17	2	0	0	220	307	310	617	91	274	21	9	284	78	-2	+0	-8	-1	+2	-1.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	KC	100%	80	71	15	3	0	1	7	17	2	0	0	217	305	305	610	87	272	21	9	281	78	-2	+0	-8	-1	+2	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4208	3614	894	182	14	122	417	862	143	50	12	247	348	407	755	159	290	20	10	339	109	+79	+5	-45	-43	+91	8.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	138	28	2	19	64	133	22	8	2	247	347	407	754	159	290	20	10	339	109	+12	+1	-7	-7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6752	5875	1441	302	24	194	608	1494	194	75	21	245	336	404	740	159	293	22	9	329	109	+77	+6	-45	-44	+94	8.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	139	29	2	19	59	144	19	7	2	246	337	405	742	159	293	22	9	329	109	+12	+1	-7	-7	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 33 PAwOBA .331 → .241 (−89)K% 27.3% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	32.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.940	12.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.108	×0.930	—	×0.940	17.53%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.006	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .331 → .241; ISO .148 → .102; BABIP .294 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 317 PAwOBA .384 → .314 (−70)K% 19.6% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.56%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	25.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.41%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.992	7.12%
HBP% /PA	2.21%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	2.15%
Singles /BIP	17.62%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.981	×0.992	15.69%
Doubles /BIP	11.90%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.981	×0.992	9.20%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.981	×0.992	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.992	5.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .384 → .314; ISO .246 → .206; BABIP .323 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 537 PAwOBA .385 → .319 (−66)K% 20.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.86%	÷1.008	×1.290	—	—	26.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.61%	÷1.007	×0.710	—	×1.033	7.73%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.51%
Singles /BIP	25.50%	÷0.980	×0.900	×0.978	×1.033	23.66%
Doubles /BIP	7.93%	÷0.923	×0.810	×0.978	×1.033	7.03%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.978	×1.033	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	5.67%	÷1.098	×0.780	—	×1.033	4.16%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .385 → .319; ISO .202 → .156; BABIP .356 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAJacksonville Suns · 504 PAwOBA .356 → .309 (−47)K% 20.2% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.24%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	24.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷0.980	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.53%
HBP% /PA	2.98%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	2.53%
Singles /BIP	21.36%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.999	×1.012	20.16%
Doubles /BIP	9.91%	÷1.029	×0.910	×0.999	×1.012	8.86%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.082	×0.880	×0.999	×1.012	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	4.02%	÷1.036	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.14%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 116, K 105, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .356 → .309; ISO .176 → .151; BABIP .327 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 478 PAwOBA .352 → .295 (−57)K% 15.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.69%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.88%	÷0.971	×0.750	—	×0.998	8.38%
HBP% /PA	1.88%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	1.75%
Singles /BIP	25.98%	÷1.027	×0.920	×0.970	×0.998	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷0.977	×0.960	×0.970	×0.998	6.90%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.970	×0.998	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	1.81%	÷0.939	×0.880	—	×0.998	1.70%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .352 → .295; ISO .118 → .104; BABIP .339 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 455 PAwOBA .388 → .294 (−94)K% 18.7% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.68%	÷0.958	×1.340	—	—	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.97%	÷1.119	×0.660	—	—	7.65%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.770	—	—	0.85%
Singles /BIP	19.73%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.997	—	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	7.36%	÷0.982	×0.820	×0.997	—	6.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.997	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.36%	÷1.143	×0.820	—	—	6.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .388 → .294; ISO .253 → .187; BABIP .288 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 ROKGCL Marlins · 21 PAwOBA .237 → .185 (−52)K% 4.8% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	6.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	5.82%
HBP% /PA	4.76%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.38%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.985	15.14%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .237 → .185; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .176 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	6.5	4,296	121	53	250	347	407	-47	-55	15.2	15.2
/162	664	19	8	-7.3	-8.5	2.3	pk7: 15
#1Ben Grieve'97-'05 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,743 PA	5.6	3,743	118	24	257*	354*	427*	-46	-19	14.4	14.3
/162	664	21	4	-8.2	-3.4	2.6	pk7: 14
#2Willie Crawford'64-'77 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,925 PA	5.9	3,925	86	47	265*	346*	445*	-41	-12	14.3	13.9
/162	664	15	8	-6.9	-2.1	2.4	pk7: 14
#3Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	6.1	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	14.0	13.3
/162	664	21	4	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#4Dan Ford'75-'85 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,582 PA	6.9	4,582	121	61	266*	324*	459*	-36	-32	12.4	12.5
/162	664	18	9	-5.2	-4.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#5Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	6.5	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#6Jurickson Profarlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,645 PA	7.0	4,645	124	66	245	334	397	-21	-56	10.0	10.8
/162	664	18	9	-2.9	-8.0	1.4	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mark Canha (OGILVIE)	38	—	—	—	—	228/317/332	103	284	2	2	21%	9%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Raul Sanchez 2011 · AAA	38	50→52	38→45	42→50	46	238/292/322	84	285	5	7	18%	6%	75	-0.5	240/293/334	94	289	7	7	19%	5%	78	-0.3	238/292/325	87	287	6	4	19%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Jose Espinoza 2012 · AAA	38	50→53	41→40	46→45	49	241/299/340	98	290	7	8	19%	7%	82	-0.0	242/295/327	85	301	7	6	21%	7%	77	-0.3	248/298/302	54	314	4	0	21%	7%	73	-0.2
✕Doug Bernier 2017 · AAA	37	46→52	40	42→45	44	223/276/313	90	281	9	7	24%	6%	67	-1.1	214/268/306	92	282	9	7	26%	6%	63	-1.4	186/236/233	47	249	5	0	26%	5%	31	-1.6
✕Christian Quintero 2014 · AAA	38	47→57	41→45	42→55	46	229/270/326	96	262	9	5	16%	5%	67	-1.1	230/277/323	93	259	8	6	14%	6%	70	-0.9	228/276/310	82	255	7	5	13%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Jeff Reboulet 2002 · MLB	38	52	41→40	45→40	58	248/334/354	106	296	7	6	18%	11%	99	+1.2	237/314/342	105	283	8	6	18%	9%	88	+0.5	232/304/317	85	271	6	4	16%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2016 · AAA	38	51→56	38→40	45→55	46	244/290/324	81	284	6	8	17%	6%	74	-0.5	235/284/309	74	280	6	10	18%	6%	69	-0.9	237/288/292	55	283	5	10	17%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Issmael Salas 2019 · AAA	37	48	43→45	45→50	48	231/281/339	108	252	10	6	14%	6%	75	-0.5	233/275/355	122	258	13	6	15%	5%	76	-0.4	233/267/345	112	252	13	1	14%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Orlando Palmeiro 2007 · MLB	38	53	42→40	46→50	51	251/310/366	115	276	8	7	12%	7%	92	+0.7	240/315/344	104	264	9	7	12%	9%	89	+0.5	226/328/255	28	245	0	0	7%	12%	75	-0.1
✕Roberto Mendez 2011 · AAA	38	49→56	44→45	39→45	52	239/306/352	114	282	12	5	20%	9%	88	+0.4	241/312/356	115	293	11	5	20%	9%	91	+0.6	243/319/350	107	293	9	2	19%	10%	90	+0.2
✕Leobardo Arauz 2015 · AAA	38	43→53	41→45	39→45	56	209/292/306	97	239	9	4	16%	10%	72	-0.7	225/295/318	93	257	9	6	16%	8%	76	-0.4	235/305/303	68	260	8	0	12%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Olmo Rosario 2019 · AAA	38	53→60	41→45	43→50	49	256/301/354	98	277	8	13	12%	6%	85	+0.2	252/301/356	104	273	10	9	11%	6%	86	+0.3	264/311/355	90	282	8	6	9%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Adan Amezcua 2012 · AAA	38	51	42→45	42→45	48	245/300/353	109	286	9	6	18%	7%	85	+0.2	229/292/345	116	272	11	6	19%	6%	81	-0.1	213/280/319	105	254	9	3	19%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Ray Martinez 2008 · AAA	39	46→52	45	47→45	49	229/295/350	121	268	13	10	20%	8%	84	+0.1	256/303/367	111	300	12	7	18%	6%	89	+0.5	274/319/378	104	318	11	4	17%	5%	96	+0.6
✕Grimaldo Martinez 2007 · AAA	38	56→61	39→40	44→45	50	267/313/350	83	290	6	6	10%	6%	88	+0.5	240/283/315	75	268	5	7	12%	5%	70	-0.9	234/274/295	61	261	4	6	12%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Raul Gonzalez 2010 · AAA	36	54→58	42→45	38→50	51	262/317/363	101	294	9	7	14%	7%	94	+0.9	262/325/393	131	305	13	16	18%	8%	104	+1.6	281/347/422	140	326	14	21	17%	8%	114	+1.1
✕Abel Martinez 2015 · AAA	38	53→62	40→45	46→50	48	251/298/345	94	275	8	15	12%	5%	82	+0.0	247/295/340	93	278	8	9	14%	5%	80	-0.1	255/299/330	75	287	7	4	13%	4%	77	-0.1
✕Brad Ausmus 2007 · MLB	38	50→56	37→45	44→45	54	235/305/306	71	265	5	5	13%	8%	77	-0.3	232/304/318	86	275	6	7	17%	8%	79	-0.2	230/302/311	81	278	6	6	18%	8%	77	-0.1
✕Miguel Ojeda 2012 · AAA	37	48→45	43→45	43→45	50	233/294/342	109	267	11	7	18%	8%	80	-0.1	226/280/330	104	281	9	8	22%	6%	73	-0.6	217/268/310	92	274	8	6	23%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Jesus Alfredo Arredondo 2010 · AAA	38	52→58	37→30	38→40	52	243/313/311	69	275	4	5	13%	7%	80	-0.1	248/300/331	83	279	6	10	13%	6%	80	-0.2	281/317/333	52	313	2	9	10%	5%	82	-0.0
✕Endy Chavez 2017 · MLB	39	50→60	41→45	46→55	49	241/294/343	102	273	9	10	15%	7%	80	-0.1	265/307/358	93	289	8	5	11%	5%	88	+0.5	290/325/358	67	315	5	1	9%	4%	92	+0.5

Mark Canha

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps