Santiago Suarez
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.6
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2031
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%14.5%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2031
OFP—50
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 39 | 153 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 16.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 2.31 | 2.64 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 15 | 8 | 59 | 232 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 0.5% | 1.52 | 2.81 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 23 | 112 | 448 | 115 | 21 | 12 | 19.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.11 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 20 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 12 | 12 | 52 | 210 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 20.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.14 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 15 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.09 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 65 | 275 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 23.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 55 | 17 | 7 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 59 | 17 | 8 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 64 | 18 | 8 | 24.6% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 64 | 18 | 8 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 64 | 17 | 8 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 63 | 17 | 8 | 24.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TB | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 61 | 17 | 8 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TB | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 59 | 17 | 7 | 24.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TB | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 56 | 17 | 7 | 24.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 53 | 16 | 7 | 23.9% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TB | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 16 | 7 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | TB | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 47 | 15 | 7 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 56 | 273 | 1089 | 206 | 56 | 30 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.10 | 3.70 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 799 | 151 | 41 | 22 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.10 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Santiago Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.03 | 23.6% | 16.6% | 177 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| John Fasola R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | .294 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.85 | 2.72 | 124 | 90 |
| Kevin Gadea R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.11 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 196 | 89 |
| Davis Sharpe R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.28 | 23.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .267 | 4.47 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 189 | +1.19 | 3.28 | 260 | 88 |
| Dan Slania R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.37 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .335 | 4.51 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 331 | +1.14 | 3.37 | 403 | 88 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 87 |
| Ronald Dominguez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.32 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.36 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.04 | 3.25 | 208 | 87 |
| Jack Anderson R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.09 | 21.7% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.28 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 207 | +1.19 | 3.09 | 267 | 87 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 18.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | .281 | 3.73 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 94 | -0.12 | 3.68 | 152 | 86 |
| David Sandlin R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.09 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | .360 | 4.58 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 163 | +0.49 | 4.00 | 222 | 86 |
| Jordan Johnson R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 21 | SW | 2.93 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .347 | 4.98 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 350 | +2.05 | 2.93 | 443 | 85 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.41 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.88 | 27.2% | 16.4% | 124 | +0.47 | 3.02 | 393 | 85 |
| Zach Agnos R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.13 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .265 | 3.79 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 84 | +0.66 | 2.73 | 136 | 85 |
| Zack Weiss R 2028 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 84 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.88 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 211 | 83 |
| Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.77 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .356 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 16.7% | 64 | +0.33 | 3.45 | 137 | 83 |
| Tyler Stevens R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.30 | 20.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .293 | 3.96 | 23.1% | 14.8% | 127 | -0.34 | 3.94 | 190 | 83 |
| Luis Barroso R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.72 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | .351 | 4.12 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 52 | +0.40 | 2.78 | 192 | 83 |
| Breckin Williams R 2029 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 83 |
| Luke Eubank R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.21 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.67 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 94 | +0.46 | 3.18 | 157 | 83 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.45 | 21.0% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .375 | 4.19 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 177 | +0.74 | 3.16 | 253 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | -$1M |
| Totals | $12M | $19M | +$7M | ||