Santiago Suarez
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111101vR 92
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
K%20.7%
BB%3.9%
K-BB%16.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 39 | 153 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 16.9% | 4.9% | 12.0% | 0.6% | 2.31 | 2.63 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 39 | 153 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 24.8% | 3.9% | 20.9% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 1.95 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 8 | 59 | 232 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 53% | 4.0 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 1.52 | 2.79 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 8 | 59 | 232 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 53% | 4.0 | 22.4% | 4.7% | 17.7% | 0.4% | 1.52 | 2.12 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 23 | 112 | 448 | 115 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.0% | 5.5% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 4.11 | 5.14 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 23 | 112 | 448 | 115 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 25.7% | 4.7% | 21.0% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 52 | 210 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 4.1% | 16.6% | 3.5% | 3.14 | 3.78 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 52 | 210 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 25.7% | 3.8% | 21.9% | 3.3% | 3.14 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 14 | 67 | 280 | 63 | 9 | 16 | 93% | 4.5 | 18.2% | 3.5% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 5.51 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 11 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.7% | 3.9% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 3.9% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 132 | 554 | 120 | 20 | 25 | — | — | 21.6% | 3.5% | 18.1% | 4.5% | 4.77 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.7% | 3.9% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.58 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 138 | 584 | 128 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.0% | 3.9% | 18.1% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 3.86 | +2.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 144 | 606 | 138 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 3.9% | 18.9% | 3.1% | 3.84 | 3.76 | +2.8 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 147 | 621 | 144 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 3.8% | 19.4% | 3.1% | 3.76 | 3.69 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 148 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 3.8% | 19.8% | 3.1% | 3.70 | 3.65 | +3.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 150 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.63 | +3.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 147 | 619 | 147 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.67 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 142 | 601 | 142 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 4.0% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 3.71 | 3.75 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 134 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 4.2% | 19.2% | 3.4% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 128 | 539 | 124 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 4.5% | 18.6% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 119 | 503 | 114 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 110 | 465 | 103 | 24 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | 4.35 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 101 | 427 | 93 | 24 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 16.0% | 4.3% | 4.58 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 82 | 24 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 4.84 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 69 | 291 | 64 | 11 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.0% | 3.9% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 105 | 443 | 101 | 17 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.7% | 3.9% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.79 | 3.71 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 120 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 3.8% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 3.64 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 132 | 557 | 131 | 21 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 3.8% | 19.8% | 3.0% | 3.65 | 3.60 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 137 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 3.58 | +2.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 136 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 3.62 | +2.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 133 | 22 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 4.0% | 19.7% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.70 | +2.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 127 | 23 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 4.2% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 3.76 | 3.83 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 118 | 23 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 4.5% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 3.91 | 4.01 | +2.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 108 | 23 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 17.8% | 3.7% | 4.08 | 4.20 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 98 | 23 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 4.29 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 88 | 23 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 4.51 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 74 | 22 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 4.77 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 253 | 253 | 1483 | 6261 | 1438 | 273 | 210 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 4.4% | 18.6% | 3.4% | 3.90 | 3.55 | +32.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 37 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 4.4% | 18.6% | 3.4% | 3.90 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 68 | 329 | 1323 | 242 | 64 | 53 | 89% | 4.3 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 3.56 | 4.36 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 805 | 147 | 39 | 32 | 89% | 4.3 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 3.56 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Santiago Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 20.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | — | 3.77 | 22.7% | 18.8% | 429 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Zebby Matthews R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.77 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.89 | 23.6% | 18.1% | 352 | +0.12 | 3.15 | 457 | 84 |
| Matt Tabor R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.57 | 19.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | .287 | 5.84 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 107 | +2.27 | 3.57 | 203 | 83 |
| Connor Lunn R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | .310 | 4.50 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 212 | +0.92 | 3.58 | 332 | 82 |
| Matt Frisbee R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | .289 | 5.67 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 252 | +1.60 | 4.07 | 463 | 81 |
| Aaron Phillips R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | .290 | 5.27 | 13.7% | 3.6% | 188 | +1.42 | 3.85 | 289 | 81 |
| Richard Fitts R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 22.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | .271 | 4.57 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 362 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 489 | 79 |
| Khal Stephen R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.05 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 55 | +1.67 | 3.05 | 158 | 79 |
| Dylan Unsworth R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.08 | 14.2% | 9.5% | 270 | +0.20 | 3.06 | 377 | 79 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 78 |
| Pierson Ohl R 2027 · 2.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 2.89 | 19.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | .350 | 4.03 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 326 | +1.14 | 2.89 | 417 | 77 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.47 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.31 | 2.47 | 155 | 77 |
| Owen Wild R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.80 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% | .319 | 5.20 | 20.8% | 10.7% | 143 | +1.40 | 3.80 | 264 | 77 |
| Joe Musgrove R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.16 | 19.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | .275 | 3.57 | 21.3% | 16.5% | 372 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 1,242 | 77 |
| Ryan Gallagher R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.69 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 70 | +1.41 | 4.28 | 192 | 76 |
| John Holobetz R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.21 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.78 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 72 | +1.57 | 3.21 | 197 | 76 |
| Tanner Bibee R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.02 | 25.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .287 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.8% | 513 | +0.57 | 3.02 | 759 | 76 |
| Connor McCullough R 2028 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.46 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 108 | -0.24 | 3.62 | 222 | 75 |
| Xzavion Curry R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.19 | 24.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | .247 | 5.07 | 18.5% | 10.6% | 320 | +1.88 | 3.19 | 513 | 75 |
| Tanner Gordon R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | .290 | 4.66 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 349 | +0.14 | 4.24 | 662 | 75 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 17.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | .305 | 4.78 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 326 | -0.01 | 3.20 | 595 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 131 | 22.8% | 4.3% | 1.32 | 3.95 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF | 9 | 169 | 21.2% | 4.8% | 1.10 | 3.42 |
| Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS | 8 | 155 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 3.70 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Johnny Cueto ('23) | 8 | 128 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.08 | 3.76 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |