Santiago Suarez — OGILVIE

Santiago Suarez P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.90

FIP3.90

K%21.0%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$51M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL6065

CMD6060

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$13M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$12M	+2.3	$13M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$17M	+2.2	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$38M		$67M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	39	153	38	6	1	100%	3.5	16.9%	4.9%	12.0%	0.7%	2.31	2.70	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	39	153	38	6	1	100%	3.5	24.8%	3.9%	20.9%	0.7%	2.31	1.95	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	8	59	232	52	11	1	53%	4.0	15.6%	5.8%	9.8%	0.5%	1.52	2.81	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	8	59	232	52	11	1	53%	4.0	15.6%	5.8%	9.8%	0.5%	1.52	2.81	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	8	59	232	52	11	1	53%	4.0	22.4%	4.7%	17.7%	0.4%	1.52	2.12	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	19.0%	5.5%	13.5%	4.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	19.0%	5.5%	13.5%	4.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	25.7%	4.7%	21.0%	2.7%	4.11	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	20.7%	4.1%	16.6%	3.2%	3.14	3.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	20.7%	4.1%	16.6%	3.2%	3.14	3.64	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	25.7%	3.8%	21.9%	3.3%	3.14	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	15.4%	4.4%	10.9%	5.1%	4.50	5.14	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	15.4%	4.4%	10.9%	5.1%	4.50	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	AA RAW	TB	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	19.0%	4.0%	14.9%	4.2%	4.50	4.32	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	12	50	11	2	2	100%	6.0	21.0%	3.8%	17.2%	3.1%	3.90	3.90	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	138	572	110	23	24	—	—	19.1%	4.0%	15.1%	4.1%	4.45	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	138	584	131	22	18	100%	5.1	22.4%	3.8%	18.6%	3.0%	3.82	3.74	+1.9
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	144	606	140	23	18	100%	5.3	23.1%	3.8%	19.4%	3.0%	3.73	3.65	+2.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	147	621	147	23	18	100%	5.7	23.6%	3.7%	19.9%	3.0%	3.66	3.59	+2.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	149	629	151	23	19	100%	6.0	24.0%	3.7%	20.3%	3.0%	3.60	3.55	+2.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	149	629	152	23	19	100%	6.0	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	3.0%	3.55	3.52	+2.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	147	619	150	23	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	3.8%	20.4%	3.0%	3.56	3.56	+2.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	142	601	144	23	19	100%	5.9	24.0%	3.9%	20.1%	3.1%	3.61	3.65	+2.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	136	574	137	24	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	4.1%	19.7%	3.3%	3.71	3.78	+1.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	128	539	126	24	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	4.4%	19.0%	3.5%	3.86	3.96	+1.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	119	503	116	24	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	3.7%	4.04	4.16	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	110	465	105	24	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	5.2%	17.4%	3.9%	4.25	4.38	+0.7
2038	33	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	101	427	94	24	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	5.6%	16.5%	4.2%	4.48	4.63	+0.3
2039	34	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	92	388	84	24	17	100%	6.1	21.6%	6.1%	15.4%	4.5%	4.74	4.91	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	69	291	65	11	9	100%	4.9	22.4%	3.8%	18.6%	3.1%	3.87	3.79	+1.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	105	443	103	17	14	100%	5.2	23.1%	3.8%	19.4%	3.1%	3.78	3.70	+1.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	122	515	122	19	16	100%	5.5	23.6%	3.7%	19.9%	3.1%	3.71	3.64	+1.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	132	557	134	21	17	100%	5.7	24.0%	3.7%	20.3%	3.0%	3.65	3.60	+2.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	136	574	139	21	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.57	+2.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	136	574	139	22	18	100%	5.9	24.2%	3.8%	20.4%	3.1%	3.61	3.61	+2.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	133	562	135	22	18	100%	6.0	24.0%	3.9%	20.1%	3.2%	3.66	3.70	+2.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	129	545	130	22	18	100%	5.9	23.8%	4.1%	19.7%	3.4%	3.76	3.83	+1.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	121	511	120	23	18	100%	6.0	23.4%	4.4%	19.0%	3.6%	3.92	4.02	+1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	113	477	110	23	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	3.8%	4.10	4.22	+1.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	105	443	100	23	18	100%	5.8	22.6%	5.2%	17.4%	4.0%	4.31	4.44	+0.6
2038	33	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	90	23	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	5.6%	16.5%	4.3%	4.55	4.70	+0.3
2039	34	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	83	350	76	21	16	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.1%	15.4%	4.6%	4.81	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		253	253	1482	6256	1462	268	215	100%	5.9	23.4%	4.3%	19.1%	3.4%	3.90	3.56	+24.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	197	36	29	100%	5.9	23.4%	4.3%	19.1%	3.4%	3.90	3.56	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		86	78	388	1565	271	78	54	91%	4.5	17.3%	5.0%	12.4%	3.5%	3.53	4.17	+21.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	807	140	40	28	91%	4.5	17.3%	5.0%	12.4%	3.5%	3.53	4.17	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	21.0%	3.8%	3.1%	—	3.66	23.1%	19.3%	429	-0.24	—	—	—
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	84
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	83
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	83
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	82
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	81
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.58	19.4%	11.9%	362	+0.49	2.96	489	80
Joe Musgrove R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	19.6%	2.3%	2.7%	.275	3.70	21.3%	16.5%	372	+0.49	3.02	1,255	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	78
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.59	23.9%	16.8%	513	+0.46	3.13	817	78
José Taveras R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	21.1%	5.7%	4.2%	.292	4.77	16.2%	8.4%	220	+0.44	4.33	357	78
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.96	17.7%	13.8%	326	+1.07	2.89	417	78
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	77
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.98	18.3%	10.7%	320	+1.57	3.41	553	77
Paul Richan R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SP	3.87	17.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.334	6.39	18.0%	9.5%	29	+2.52	3.87	153	76
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	75
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.68	18.3%	11.7%	349	+0.33	3.83	709	75
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	75
Hayden Wesneski R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.17	22.4%	14.7%	336	+0.38	3.18	546	74
Peyton Battenfield R 2021 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.2%	5.3%	3.7%	.232	5.46	13.6%	4.7%	363	+1.88	3.58	466	74
Eduardo Vera R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP-	3.97	14.7%	3.0%	3.1%	.291	4.88	12.9%	6.7%	289	+0.91	3.97	421	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.2	131	23.2%	4.2%	1.28	3.85
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70