Santiago Suarez

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#51ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ATB	23	23	112	4.11	3.00	25.7%	4.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.51
2025	20	MIX2 levels	12	12	52	3.14	3.24	25.7%	3.8%	—	K 20.7% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.64
2026	21	AATB	25	24	126	4.50	4.30	19.0%	4.0%	—	K 15.4% · BB 4.4% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	1	1	3	4.46	4.46	17.4%	2.8%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBTB	14	14	73	4.25	4.17	19.6%	3.0%	1.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTB	18	18	103	4.13	4.04	20.9%	3.1%	1.6

Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$9M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 76%

CompsZebby Matthews (age 23) · Connor Lunn (age 23) · Eduardo Vera (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%17.4%

BB%2.8%

K-BB%14.6%

Proj IP146

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$54M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$11M	+$8M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$10M	+$6M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$23M		$58M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	39	153	38	6	1	100%	3.5	16.9%	4.9%	12.0%	0.7%	2.31	2.70	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	39	153	38	6	1	100%	3.5	24.8%	3.9%	20.9%	0.7%	2.31	1.95	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	8	59	232	52	11	1	53%	4.0	15.6%	5.8%	9.8%	0.5%	1.52	2.81	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	8	59	232	52	11	1	53%	4.0	22.4%	4.7%	17.7%	0.4%	1.52	2.12	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	19.0%	5.5%	13.5%	4.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	19.0%	5.5%	13.5%	4.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	112	448	115	21	12	100%	4.9	25.7%	4.7%	21.0%	2.7%	4.11	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	20.7%	4.1%	16.6%	3.2%	3.14	3.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	20.7%	4.1%	16.6%	3.2%	3.14	3.64	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	52	210	54	8	7	100%	4.3	25.7%	3.8%	21.9%	3.3%	3.14	3.24	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	15.4%	4.4%	10.9%	5.1%	4.50	5.14	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	15.4%	4.4%	10.9%	5.1%	4.50	5.14	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	24	126	522	99	21	22	96%	5.0	19.0%	4.0%	14.9%	4.2%	4.50	4.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	1	1	3	13	2	0	0	100%	3.0	17.4%	2.8%	14.6%	3.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	146	616	121	18	23	100%	5.4	19.6%	3.0%	16.6%	3.7%	4.31	4.23	+2.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	146	616	129	19	22	100%	5.6	20.9%	3.1%	17.8%	3.6%	4.18	4.09	+2.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	123	519	113	17	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	3.2%	18.5%	3.6%	4.08	4.01	+2.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	123	520	115	17	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	3.3%	18.9%	3.5%	4.02	3.97	+2.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	121	509	113	17	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	3.4%	18.8%	3.6%	4.01	4.01	+2.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	116	489	108	17	18	100%	6.1	22.0%	3.5%	18.5%	3.7%	4.06	4.09	+1.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	108	458	100	17	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	3.7%	18.0%	3.8%	4.16	4.22	+1.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	99	417	89	17	17	100%	6.2	21.4%	4.0%	17.4%	4.0%	4.31	4.40	+1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	88	373	78	16	16	100%	5.9	21.0%	4.4%	16.6%	4.3%	4.49	4.60	+0.8
2037	32	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	78	328	67	16	15	100%	6.0	20.6%	4.8%	15.8%	4.5%	4.69	4.83	+0.5
2038	33	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	67	283	57	15	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.2%	14.8%	4.8%	4.92	5.08	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	73	308	60	9	11	100%	5.2	19.6%	3.0%	16.6%	3.6%	4.25	4.17	+1.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	103	435	91	14	15	100%	5.7	20.9%	3.1%	17.8%	3.5%	4.13	4.04	+1.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	100	422	92	14	15	100%	5.9	21.7%	3.2%	18.5%	3.5%	4.03	3.96	+1.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	108	456	101	15	16	100%	6.0	22.1%	3.3%	18.9%	3.4%	3.97	3.92	+1.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	109	460	102	15	16	100%	6.1	22.1%	3.4%	18.8%	3.5%	3.96	3.96	+1.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	107	452	99	16	16	100%	5.9	22.0%	3.5%	18.5%	3.6%	4.00	4.03	+1.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	101	426	93	16	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	3.7%	18.0%	3.7%	4.10	4.16	+1.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	93	393	84	16	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	4.0%	17.4%	3.9%	4.25	4.34	+1.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	84	355	75	16	15	100%	6.0	21.0%	4.4%	16.6%	4.2%	4.43	4.54	+0.8
2037	32	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	74	312	64	15	14	100%	6.2	20.6%	4.8%	15.8%	4.4%	4.62	4.76	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	64	270	54	14	13	100%	5.8	20.1%	5.2%	14.8%	4.7%	4.85	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	172	1014	4282	914	159	161	100%	5.9	21.3%	3.7%	17.6%	3.8%	4.19	3.83	+19.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	31	32	100%	5.9	21.3%	3.7%	17.6%	3.8%	4.19	3.83	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		86	78	388	1565	271	78	54	91%	4.5	17.3%	5.0%	12.4%	3.5%	3.53	4.17	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	807	140	40	28	91%	4.5	17.3%	5.0%	12.4%	3.5%	3.53	4.17	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 126 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.14 (+0.82)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.97%	—	×0.810	15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.02%	—	×1.100	4.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.21%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 41 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.64 (+1.04)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.95%	—	×0.770	20.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.59%	—	×1.150	4.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷0.930	×1.250	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 11 IPFIP 5.75 → 5.16 (−0.59)K% 20.9% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.860	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×0.900	4.19%
HR / BF /BF	6.98%	÷1.380	×1.100	5.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 112 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.51 (+1.52)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.67%	—	×0.740	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.69%	—	×1.180	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.824	×1.300	4.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 40 IPFIP 1.64 → 2.49 (+0.85)K% 25.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.33%	—	×0.680	17.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.33%	—	×1.250	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.64 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 20 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.39 (+0.60)K% 17.1% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.07%	—	×0.740	12.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.66%	—	×1.180	4.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.075	×1.300	1.47%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Miami · 39 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.70 (+0.84)K% 24.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.84%	—	×0.680	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×1.250	4.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.249	×1.400	0.73%

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.8%	—	4.12	20.7%	17.6%	415	-0.34	—	—	—
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	81
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	80
Eduardo Vera R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP-	3.97	14.7%	3.0%	3.1%	.291	4.88	12.9%	6.7%	289	+0.91	3.97	421	79
Kyle Friedrichs R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	14.5%	3.0%	2.3%	.288	4.48	14.3%	6.9%	347	+0.95	3.53	603	78
Nathan Bannister R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP	5.08	15.4%	4.0%	5.1%	.299	5.75	10.9%	2.6%	138	+0.67	5.08	281	77
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	76
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	76
Ljay Newsome R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	20.7%	3.0%	4.0%	.322	5.53	18.0%	15.9%	30	+1.59	3.81	462	75
José Taveras R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	21.1%	5.7%	4.2%	.292	4.77	16.2%	8.4%	220	+0.44	4.33	357	75
Paul Richan R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SP	3.87	17.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.334	6.39	18.0%	9.5%	29	+2.52	3.87	153	74
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	74
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.67	18.5%	11.9%	349	+0.32	4.10	715	73
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	73
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	73
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	73
Aaron Civale R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	22	SP	3.51	16.4%	2.5%	2.7%	.302	3.97	18.6%	13.0%	311	+0.46	3.33	1,207	72
Garrett Stallings R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	17.1%	5.2%	4.9%	.305	4.83	19.0%	11.4%	326	-0.16	3.19	627	72
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.03	19.7%	12.5%	153	-0.63	3.62	266	72
Nathan Wiles R 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SP	4.88	15.6%	3.6%	4.8%	.266	4.44	17.6%	11.5%	311	-0.44	4.17	399	71
Andy Sonnanstine R 2007 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	17.5%	4.3%	3.2%	.320	4.29	14.4%	8.8%	374	+0.34	3.77	540	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	113	20.8%	3.6%	1.49	4.27
Josh Tomlin ('21)	5.3	97	16.5%	3.4%	1.66	4.77
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Kevin Slowey ('14)	3.3	95	17.5%	3.9%	1.35	4.62
Greg Swindell ('86-'02, 30 WAR*)	11.2	131	20.9%*	5.3%*	1.32*	3.99*
Rick Reed ('88-'03, 20 WAR*)	7.7	155	17.8%*	4.3%*	1.39*	4.03*