Ljay Newsome
P
ACL Giants Orange
Age 29
RHP
5'11" / 210 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.32
FIP4.51
K%21.0%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
FB+1.4
CH-5.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 5 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 27.0% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 0.82 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 5 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 27.0% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 1.23 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 130 | 530 | 111 | 16 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.10 | 4.43 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 130 | 530 | 111 | 16 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.9% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 3.16 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 144 | 613 | 125 | 14 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.9% | 2.5% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 4.89 | 5.33 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 144 | 613 | 125 | 14 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 18.1% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 155 | 620 | 169 | 17 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.7% | 3.0% | 17.7% | 5.7% | 3.54 | 4.87 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 155 | 620 | 169 | 17 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.3% | 2.7% | 24.5% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 2.59 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 4 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 80% | 3.1 | 13.2% | 1.5% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 5.17 | 5.57 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 4 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 80% | 3.1 | 13.2% | 1.5% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 5.17 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 7 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 14% | 2.1 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 20.3% | 7.6% | 7.98 | 5.70 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 7 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 14% | 2.1 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 20.3% | 7.2% | 7.98 | 5.76 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 18% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 3.8% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 4.38 | 1.67 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 18% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 3.8% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 4.38 | 1.64 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 36% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 4.5% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 2.08 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 36% | 1.6 | 33.3% | 4.5% | 28.8% | 3.0% | 2.08 | 2.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 43 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 12 | 72 | 315 | 61 | 19 | 15 | 63% | 3.8 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 5.44 | 4.88 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 33 | 200 | 869 | 168 | 52 | 41 | 63% | 3.8 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 5.44 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 91 | 499 | 2056 | 370 | 61 | 104 | 76% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 4.17 | 4.74 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 36 | 200 | 824 | 148 | 24 | 42 | 76% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 4.17 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ljay Newsome (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.80 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 106 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 79 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 78 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 76 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 76 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 73 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 73 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 73 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 70 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 70 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 69 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 69 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 69 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.63 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 584 | 68 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 68 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 67 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 67 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 66 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 1.31 | 4.52 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |