Ljay Newsome
P
ACL Giants Orange
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
5'11" / 210 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP4.13
SIERA3.69
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
IP12
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL7070
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
FB+1.4
CH-5.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 5 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 130 | 530 | 111 | 16 | 14 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 21 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 613 | 125 | 14 | 24 | 15.9% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 4.89 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 28 | 155 | 620 | 169 | 17 | 16 | 20.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.54 | 3.96 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 4 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 13.2% | 1.5% | 5.6% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 7 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 7.5% | 7.98 | 5.64 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 11 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.38 | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 11 | 4 | 17 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 21.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.08 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SF | 12 | — | 12 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 91 | 499 | 2056 | 370 | 61 | 90 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 36 | 200 | 824 | 148 | 24 | 36 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ljay Newsome (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.64 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 87 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 85 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 78 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 76 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 76 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 76 |
| Craig Stammen R 2029 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 75 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.18 | 2.30 | 511 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 74 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 73 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 73 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.69 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .305 | 3.09 | 27.1% | 19.3% | 179 | -0.60 | 2.89 | 453 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.