Connor Overton — OGILVIE

Connor Overton P Buffalo Bisons

Age 33 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.24

FIP5.47

K%12.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

FB-1.6

CT-1.6

CH-1.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	12	68	9	5	3	0%	1.3	8.8%	10.0%	-1.2%	4.8%	11.57	6.23	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	12	68	9	5	3	0%	1.3	13.2%	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%	11.57	6.19	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	1	0	0	4	1	2	1	0%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	54.00	21.04	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	1	0	0	4	1	2	1	0%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	54.00	54.10	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	48	212	48	17	5	9%	2.1	17.1%	8.1%	8.9%	3.5%	4.91	4.62	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	48	212	48	17	5	9%	2.1	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	2.4%	4.91	3.52	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	27	120	25	11	3	0%	2.0	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.80	—
2019	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	27	120	25	11	3	0%	2.0	20.8%	9.2%	11.7%	2.5%	3.62	3.90	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	10	74	299	67	16	5	32%	2.4	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	1.7%	2.55	3.03	+1.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	10	74	299	67	16	5	32%	2.4	22.4%	5.4%	17.1%	1.7%	2.55	2.82	+1.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	60	231	45	16	5	67%	5.0	17.9%	7.0%	10.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.52	+1.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	60	231	45	16	5	67%	5.0	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.2%	2.72	3.49	+1.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	3	3	11	55	9	7	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	5.1%	11.45	6.10	-0.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	3	3	11	55	9	7	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	5.1%	11.45	6.10	-0.1
2023	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	3	3	11	55	9	7	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	5.5%	11.45	6.92	-0.2
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	9.3%	4.7%	4.6%	8.5%	7.85	7.59	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	9.3%	4.7%	4.6%	8.5%	7.85	7.59	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	17.2%	4.9%	12.3%	8.0%	7.85	6.84	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.26	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.26	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	10	59	242	38	23	6	56%	3.3	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	2.5%	4.85	4.30	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	TOR	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	12.1%	9.0%	3.1%	3.4%	5.24	5.47	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TOR	45	0	47	200	25	19	7	0%	1.1	12.4%	9.5%	2.8%	3.7%	5.44	5.66	-0.6
2028	35	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	179	22	18	7	0%	1.1	12.2%	10.1%	2.2%	4.0%	5.67	5.89	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	TOR	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	12.4%	9.5%	2.8%	3.7%	5.44	5.66	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.2%	10.1%	2.2%	4.0%	5.67	5.89	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	10	62	255	40	24	6	48%	3.0	15.5%	9.5%	6.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		67	32	200	817	128	77	19	48%	3.0	15.5%	9.5%	6.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		118	33	285	1233	204	91	43	28%	2.4	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.56	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	23	200	864	143	64	30	28%	2.4	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.56	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Overton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	12.1%	9.0%	3.4%	—	5.77	12.3%	2.5%	90	+0.30	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	82
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	79
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	78
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	75
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	74
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	72
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	71
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	71
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	68
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	67
Matt Albers R 2016 · 5.27 FIP	33	SU	5.27	12.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.318	4.05	23.7%	15.5%	155	-1.22	3.15	244	66
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	66
Felipe Paulino R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	15.0%	10.2%	3.3%	.302	5.82	19.2%	9.8%	21	+0.89	4.55	150	64
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	64
JC Ramírez R 2022 · 6.17 FIP	33	SU	6.17	15.7%	14.0%	4.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	369	64
Raul Barron R 2019 · 5.92 FIP	33	SU	5.92	11.4%	8.9%	4.8%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	201	64
Ramon Ramirez R 2016 · 5.25 FIP	33	SW	5.25	9.2%	14.1%	2.1%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	155	63
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	12.2%	9.5%	1.41	5.44
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78