Connor Overton

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 34 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MLBCIN	3	3	11	11.45	6.92	16.4%	12.7%	-0.2
2024	31	MIX3 levels	17	7	37	7.85	6.84	17.2%	4.9%	—	K 9.6% · BB 4.7% · FIP 7.56
2025	32	MIX3 levels	8	3	17	7.94	3.28	17.3%	7.4%	—	K 17.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.26
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBTOR	5	0	5	4.75	4.82	19.4%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBTOR	2	0	2	4.94	5.11	18.8%	10.6%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.20	5.42	18.1%	11.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 35) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.75

FIP4.82

K%19.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	12	68	9	5	3	0%	1.3	8.8%	10.0%	-1.2%	4.8%	11.57	6.23	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	12	68	9	5	3	0%	1.3	13.2%	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%	11.57	6.19	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	1	0	0	4	1	2	1	0%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	54.00	21.04	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	1	0	0	4	1	2	1	0%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	54.00	54.10	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	48	212	48	17	5	9%	2.1	17.1%	8.1%	8.9%	3.5%	4.91	4.62	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	48	212	48	17	5	9%	2.1	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	2.4%	4.91	3.52	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	27	120	25	11	3	0%	2.0	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.80	—
2019	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	27	120	25	11	3	0%	2.0	20.8%	9.2%	11.7%	2.5%	3.62	3.90	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	10	74	299	67	16	5	32%	2.4	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	1.7%	2.55	3.03	+1.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	10	74	299	67	16	5	32%	2.4	22.4%	5.4%	17.1%	1.7%	2.55	2.82	+1.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	60	231	45	16	5	67%	5.0	17.9%	7.0%	10.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.52	+1.4
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	60	231	45	16	5	67%	5.0	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.2%	2.72	3.49	+1.4
2023	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	3	3	11	55	9	7	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	5.1%	11.45	6.10	-0.1
2023	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	3	3	11	55	9	7	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	5.5%	11.45	6.92	-0.2
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	9.6%	4.7%	5.0%	8.5%	7.85	7.56	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	9.6%	4.7%	5.0%	8.5%	7.85	7.56	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	7	37	163	28	8	13	41%	2.2	17.2%	4.9%	12.3%	8.0%	7.85	6.84	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.26	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.26	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	3	17	81	14	6	1	38%	2.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.2%	7.94	3.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	10	59	242	38	23	6	56%	3.3	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	2.5%	4.85	4.30	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.2%	3.1%	4.75	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	178	33	19	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.4%	4.94	5.11	-0.3
2029	36	MLB MLE	TOR	31	0	32	136	25	15	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.1%	7.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.42	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	TOR	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.4%	4.94	5.11	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	11.1%	7.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.42	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	10	62	252	40	24	6	50%	3.1	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.5%	4.86	4.35	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		66	32	200	817	130	78	19	49%	3.1	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.5%	4.86	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		118	33	285	1233	204	91	43	28%	2.4	16.6%	7.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.56	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	23	200	864	143	64	30	28%	2.4	16.6%	7.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.56	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 8 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.96 (+0.42)K% 9.8% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.76%	—	×0.860	8.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×0.900	6.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.847	×1.100	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 7 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.64 (+0.90)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.680	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 25 IPFIP 7.54 → 7.56 (+0.02)K% 11.2% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.21%	—	×0.860	9.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.17%	—	×0.900	4.66%
HR / BF /BF	8.62%	÷1.111	×1.100	8.54%

Result: FIP 7.54 → 7.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Reds · 7 IPFIP 3.88 → 5.46 (+1.58)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.680	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.250	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.063	×1.400	4.88%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 5 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.84 (+0.63)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷1.285	×1.250	9.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 27 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.33 (+0.03)K% 29.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.880	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.67%	—	×1.050	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷1.282	×1.100	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 59 IPFIP 2.53 → 2.78 (+0.26)K% 22.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.880	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.66%	—	×1.050	4.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.096	×1.100	1.28%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 27 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.80 (+0.93)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.810	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.100	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.890	×1.200	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Overton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.4%	10.1%	3.1%	—	5.24	18.5%	7.7%	74	+0.42	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	74
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	71
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	70
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	69
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	69
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	67
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	67
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	66
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	64
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	63
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	63
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	63
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	62
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	62
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	62
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	62
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	17.9%	10.2%	1.20	4.90
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*