Connor Overton
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 33
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142132vR 123
ERA5.23
FIP5.46
K%12.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%3.0%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.381
FB-1.6
CT-1.6
CH-1.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 12 | 68 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 8.8% | 10.0% | -1.2% | 3.7% | 11.57 | 5.66 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 12 | 68 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 11.57 | 6.19 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 50.0% | -25.0% | 25.0% | 54.00 | 21.04 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 50.0% | -25.0% | 25.0% | 54.00 | 54.10 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 48 | 212 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 9% | 2.1 | 17.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 4.91 | 4.90 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 48 | 212 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 9% | 2.1 | 22.6% | 8.0% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 4.91 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 14 | 0 | 27 | 120 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.62 | 5.06 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 14 | 0 | 27 | 120 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 3.90 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 10 | 74 | 299 | 67 | 16 | 5 | 32% | 2.4 | 20.3% | 5.5% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 2.55 | 2.96 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 10 | 74 | 299 | 67 | 16 | 5 | 32% | 2.4 | 22.4% | 5.4% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 2.55 | 2.82 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 60 | 231 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 67% | 5.0 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 1.6% | 2.72 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 60 | 231 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 67% | 5.0 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 2.72 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 3 | 11 | 55 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 11.45 | 6.17 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 3 | 11 | 55 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 11.45 | 6.92 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 7 | 37 | 163 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 41% | 2.2 | 9.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 7.85 | 7.22 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 7 | 37 | 163 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 41% | 2.2 | 17.2% | 4.9% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 7.85 | 6.84 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 3 | 17 | 81 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38% | 2.1 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 7.94 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 3 | 17 | 81 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38% | 2.1 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 7.94 | 3.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 25 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 22 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.67 | 5.89 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.65 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.67 | 5.89 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 10 | 62 | 255 | 40 | 24 | 6 | 48% | 3.0 | 15.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.88 | 4.39 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 32 | 200 | 817 | 128 | 77 | 19 | 48% | 3.0 | 15.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.88 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 33 | 285 | 1233 | 205 | 93 | 42 | 28% | 2.4 | 16.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.51 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 23 | 200 | 864 | 143 | 65 | 29 | 28% | 2.4 | 16.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Overton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 12.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.76 | 12.5% | 2.4% | 90 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 83 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 80 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 77 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 75 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2025 · 6.21 FIP | 32 | SW | 6.21 | 10.0% | 13.0% | 4.2% | .316 | 4.21 | 21.3% | 16.2% | 15 | -2.00 | 3.49 | 212 | 74 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 72 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 71 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.73 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 152 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.86 | 12.3% | 9.1% | 4.8% | .304 | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.1% | 139 | -2.38 | 3.48 | 292 | 70 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 67 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 67 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.23 | 12.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | .318 | 4.18 | 23.7% | 15.5% | 155 | -1.05 | 3.15 | 244 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 15.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .302 | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 21 | +1.21 | 4.68 | 150 | 64 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 63 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.09 | 9.2% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 155 | 63 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.40 | 11.8% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 146 | 62 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 5.43 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |