Tanner Gordon
P
Colorado Rockies
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.55
FIP4.28
K%18.3%
BB%4.7%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SI (5%)
CU (9%)
CH (21%)
FB-1.3 (43%)
SL-1.5 (27%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 108 | 443 | 109 | 21 | 13 | 95% | 4.9 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 13.0% | 4.2% | 3.90 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 108 | 443 | 109 | 21 | 13 | 95% | 4.9 | 24.6% | 4.7% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 120 | 511 | 133 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 4.64 | 4.92 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 120 | 511 | 133 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.0% | 7.2% | 18.8% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 140 | 607 | 131 | 41 | 19 | 96% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 140 | 607 | 131 | 41 | 19 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 5.53 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 96 | 419 | 79 | 21 | 22 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 5.83 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 96 | 419 | 79 | 21 | 22 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 5.0% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 5.83 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 134 | 590 | 109 | 27 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.5% | 4.7% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 5.86 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 134 | 590 | 109 | 27 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 13.9% | 4.2% | 5.86 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 16 | 9 | 71 | 304 | 66 | 13 | 13 | 56% | 4.4 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 5.22 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 142 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 4.55 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.3% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 4.55 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | COL | — | — | 104 | 446 | 92 | 20 | 18 | — | — | 20.6% | 4.4% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | COL | — | — | 84 | 354 | 92 | 20 | 18 | — | — | 25.9% | 5.6% | 20.4% | 5.2% | 6.22 | 4.48 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 49 | 14 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 45 | 14 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 5.17 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 40 | 14 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 5.34 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 13 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 5.17 | 5.23 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 5.34 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 63 | 377 | 1643 | 288 | 78 | 79 | 90% | 5.4 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 5.84 | 4.85 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 33 | 200 | 871 | 153 | 41 | 42 | 90% | 5.4 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 5.84 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 129 | 669 | 2874 | 535 | 171 | 117 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 4.51 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 860 | 160 | 51 | 35 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 15.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | — | 5.23 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 194 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 77 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 77 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 74 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.29 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.57 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.28 | 1.66 | 242 | 73 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 72 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 71 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 70 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 70 |
| Yohan Pino R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 69 |
| Walker Powell R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.00 | 18.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | .258 | 5.63 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | +0.63 | 2.88 | 242 | 69 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 69 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.53 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .290 | 3.98 | 22.6% | 16.0% | 368 | -0.55 | 3.41 | 981 | 68 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 67 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 1.67 | 5.16 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Wade LeBlanc ('21) | 6 | 81 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 4.61 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Sam Gaviglio ('19) | 3 | 98 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.69 | 4.84 |