Tanner Gordon — OGILVIE

Tanner Gordon P Colorado Rockies

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.46

FIP4.21

K%18.2%

BB%4.3%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

SI (3%)

CU (9%)

CH (22%)

FB-1.3 (46%)

SL-1.5 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	443	109	21	13	95%	4.9	18.5%	5.5%	13.0%	3.8%	3.90	4.35	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	108	443	109	21	13	95%	4.9	24.6%	4.7%	19.9%	2.9%	3.90	3.23	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	511	133	37	17	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	4.3%	4.64	4.72	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	120	511	133	37	17	100%	4.8	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	3.3%	4.64	3.65	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	140	607	131	41	19	96%	5.2	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	3.5%	5.53	4.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	140	607	131	41	19	96%	5.2	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	3.5%	5.53	4.37	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	140	607	131	41	19	96%	5.2	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	3.1%	5.53	3.87	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	16.0%	4.5%	11.5%	5.1%	5.83	5.12	-0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	16.0%	4.5%	11.5%	5.1%	5.83	5.12	-0.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	18.9%	5.0%	13.8%	5.3%	5.83	5.10	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	17.1%	4.4%	12.7%	4.1%	5.86	4.44	+0.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	17.1%	4.4%	12.7%	4.1%	5.86	4.44	+0.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	18.5%	4.6%	13.9%	4.2%	5.86	4.51	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	33	207	925	169	39	44	73%	4.6	18.3%	4.2%	14.1%	4.8%	6.35	4.80	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	14	118	504	100	20	19	54%	4.5	19.2%	3.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.97	3.83	+1.5
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	14	118	504	100	20	19	54%	4.5	19.2%	3.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.97	3.83	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	COL	4	4	20	76	19	4	1	100%	5.1	25.0%	5.3%	19.7%	1.3%	2.21	2.38	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	COL	22	10	97	428	81	16	18	45%	4.4	18.9%	3.7%	15.2%	4.2%	5.55	4.28	+0.3
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	COL	22	10	97	428	81	16	18	45%	4.4	18.9%	3.7%	15.2%	4.2%	5.55	4.28	+0.3
ROS	28	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	10	41	7	2	2	100%	4.8	18.2%	4.3%	13.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.21	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	10	42	8	2	2	100%	5.0	18.2%	4.3%	13.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	127	545	107	22	21	—	—	19.7%	4.0%	15.7%	3.8%	4.93	3.86	+1.6
FULL	28	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	107	452	107	22	21	—	—	23.8%	4.8%	19.0%	4.6%	5.87	4.20	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	69	290	50	13	12	100%	6.2	17.2%	4.4%	12.8%	4.2%	4.94	4.90	0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	273	45	13	12	100%	5.9	16.5%	4.7%	11.8%	4.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	47	12	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	4.4%	12.8%	4.2%	4.94	4.90	0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	42	12	11	100%	6.1	16.5%	4.7%	11.8%	4.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	55	343	1500	266	65	69	82%	5.1	17.8%	4.3%	13.4%	4.6%	5.79	4.66	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	32	200	874	155	38	40	82%	5.1	17.8%	4.3%	13.4%	4.6%	5.79	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		148	134	716	3074	560	171	123	91%	4.8	18.2%	5.6%	12.7%	4.0%	5.14	4.45	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	859	157	48	34	91%	4.8	18.2%	5.6%	12.7%	4.0%	5.14	4.45	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	16.1%	4.7%	3.9%	—	5.00	16.8%	12.3%	133	+0.12	—	—	—
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	76
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	76
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	73
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	73
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	73
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	72
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	71
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	71
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	70
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Walker Powell R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP	5.21	18.6%	5.8%	5.4%	.258	5.35	12.1%	6.3%	27	+0.14	2.87	242	68
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	68
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.17	592	68
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	275	67
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	67
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.6%	4.6%	1.62	5.04
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43