Tanner Gordon

P Colorado Rockies

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	21	21	96	5.83	5.10	18.9%	5.0%	0.3	K 16.4% · BB 4.5% · FIP 5.10
2025	27	MIX2 levels	27	27	134	5.86	4.51	18.5%	4.6%	1.4	K 17.4% · BB 4.4% · FIP 4.42
2026	28	MIX2 levels	28	16	124	5.95	4.36	18.9%	4.7%	1.5	K 18.5% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	29	MLBCOL	11	11	68	5.07	4.70	17.1%	4.6%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCOL	10	10	58	4.97	4.90	16.4%	4.9%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCOL	10	10	59	4.91	4.86	17.6%	4.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo25

xwOBA vs22

K%21

Form12.15 ERA (proj 5.07) · K 14.8% (proj 17.1%) · BB 8.3% (proj 4.6%) ▼ last 60d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsDavid Hale (age 29) · Shawn Haviland (age 29) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA5.07

FIP4.70

K%17.1%

BB%4.6%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p2118.0%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	443	109	21	13	95%	4.9	18.5%	5.5%	13.0%	3.8%	3.90	4.35	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	108	443	109	21	13	95%	4.9	24.6%	4.7%	19.9%	2.9%	3.90	3.23	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	511	133	37	17	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	4.3%	4.64	4.72	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	120	511	133	37	17	100%	4.8	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	3.3%	4.64	3.65	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	140	607	131	41	19	96%	5.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.2%	3.5%	5.53	4.35	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	140	607	131	41	19	96%	5.2	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	3.1%	5.53	3.87	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	16.4%	4.5%	11.8%	5.1%	5.83	5.10	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	16.4%	4.5%	11.8%	5.1%	5.83	5.10	+0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	96	419	79	21	22	100%	4.6	18.9%	5.0%	13.8%	5.3%	5.83	5.10	+0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	17.4%	4.4%	13.0%	4.1%	5.86	4.42	+1.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	17.4%	4.4%	13.0%	4.1%	5.86	4.42	+1.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	134	590	109	27	25	100%	5.0	18.5%	4.6%	13.9%	4.2%	5.86	4.51	+1.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	124	549	104	26	22	57%	4.4	18.5%	4.7%	13.8%	3.6%	5.95	4.10	+1.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	124	549	104	26	22	57%	4.4	18.5%	4.7%	13.8%	3.6%	5.95	4.10	+1.9
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	124	549	104	26	22	57%	4.4	18.9%	4.7%	14.2%	4.0%	5.95	4.36	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	35	213	970	173	45	47	74%	4.5	17.8%	4.6%	13.2%	4.8%	6.88	4.98	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	COL	11	11	68	287	49	13	11	100%	6.2	17.1%	4.6%	12.4%	3.8%	5.07	4.70	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	61	258	42	13	10	100%	6.1	16.4%	4.9%	11.4%	4.0%	4.97	4.90	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	261	46	12	11	100%	6.2	17.6%	4.5%	13.1%	4.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.4
2030	32	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	49	209	35	10	9	100%	6.2	16.8%	4.9%	11.9%	4.4%	5.04	5.12	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	40	12	10	100%	5.8	16.4%	4.9%	11.4%	4.0%	4.97	4.90	+0.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	59	249	44	11	10	100%	5.9	17.6%	4.5%	13.1%	4.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.4
2030	32	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	47	198	33	10	9	100%	5.9	16.8%	4.9%	11.9%	4.4%	5.04	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	62	377	1662	290	78	76	84%	5.1	17.5%	4.7%	12.8%	4.6%	6.05	4.73	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	33	200	881	154	41	40	84%	5.1	17.5%	4.7%	12.8%	4.6%	6.05	4.73	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		150	136	722	3119	569	177	125	91%	4.8	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	4.0%	5.31	4.48	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	864	158	49	35	91%	4.8	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	4.0%	5.31	4.48	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 20 IPFIP 2.38 → 2.68 (+0.30)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×0.900	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 58 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.31 (+0.33)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.58%	—	×0.860	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.95%	—	×0.900	3.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.85%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 55 IPFIP 4.83 → 4.99 (+0.16)K% 19.1% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.13%	—	×0.860	16.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.65%	—	×0.900	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.78%	÷1.096	×1.100	4.80%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 7 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.95 (+1.70)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.680	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.250	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.044	×1.400	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 79 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.68 (+0.74)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.810	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.040	×1.200	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 IPFIP 3.74 → 3.94 (+0.20)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.30%	—	×0.860	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×0.900	6.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.062	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 98 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.41 (+1.08)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.810	18.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.100	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷0.927	×1.200	4.84%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Rome Braves · 22 IPFIP 0.10 → 1.17 (+1.07)K% 43.4% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.37%	—	×0.770	33.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.928	×1.250	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 0.10 → 1.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.8%	—	4.95	16.9%	12.2%	172	+0.25	—	—	—
David Hale R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	29	SP	3.54	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.20	3.30	581	71
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	70
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	68
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	68
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	67
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	65
Christian Bergman R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	29	SP	4.39	14.6%	5.4%	3.4%	.313	4.80	15.3%	9.0%	182	+0.41	3.99	521	65
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	65
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	65
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	64
Pete Munro R 2004 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	14.1%	5.4%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	315	64
Javier Solano R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP	5.13	14.7%	4.6%	4.9%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	506	64
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	64
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	64
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	64
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	65	17.4%	4.8%	1.72	5.88
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Oscar Zamora ('74-'78, -1 WAR*)	1.1	75	15.2%*	5.7%*	2.30*	5.10*