Connor McCullough

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AACWS	4	1	13	3.38	4.97	24.5%	7.5%	—	K 19.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 6.46
2025	25	MIX3 levels	13	13	42	3.43	2.89	23.2%	6.0%	—	K 18.7% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.41
2026	26	AACWS	27	27	108	4.08	2.92	24.5%	6.5%	—	K 19.9% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	1	1	1	4.26	4.26	20.1%	7.3%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCWS	3	3	19	4.32	4.35	20.3%	7.6%	0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCWS	4	4	27	4.41	4.48	20.3%	8.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMarkus Solbach (age 27) · Brendan Beck (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%20.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	454	130	25	17	100%	4.9	21.8%	6.4%	15.4%	4.7%	4.29	4.66	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	454	130	25	17	100%	4.9	28.6%	5.5%	23.1%	3.7%	4.29	3.42	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	7.3%	3.38	6.46	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	7.3%	3.38	6.46	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	5.7%	3.38	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	18.7%	6.4%	12.4%	3.8%	3.43	4.41	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	18.7%	6.4%	12.4%	3.8%	3.43	4.41	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	23.2%	6.0%	17.3%	1.8%	3.43	2.89	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	108	461	113	30	9	100%	4.0	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	2.3%	4.08	3.62	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	108	461	113	30	9	100%	4.0	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	2.3%	4.08	3.62	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	108	461	113	30	9	100%	4.0	24.5%	6.5%	18.0%	2.0%	4.08	2.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	51	217	44	16	6	100%	5.7	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	48	203	41	16	6	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.48	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	3	3	19	80	16	6	2	100%	6.3	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	27	114	23	9	4	100%	6.8	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.48	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	46	194	39	15	6	100%	5.8	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.37	4.04	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	65	26	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.37	4.04	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		68	64	278	1139	232	77	42	94%	4.1	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.02	4.28	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	820	167	55	31	94%	4.1	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.02	4.28	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 108 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.62 (+0.69)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.810	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.51%	—	×1.100	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 31 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.41 (+1.17)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.14%	—	×0.810	18.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.100	6.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.784	×1.200	3.79%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 6 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.89 (+0.32)K% 12.5% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.770	9.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.150	4.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL White Sox · 5 IPFIP 1.26 → 2.48 (+1.22)K% 34.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.680	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 1.26 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 13 IPFIP 5.09 → 6.46 (+1.37)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.53%	—	×0.810	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.30%
HR / BF /BF	5.66%	÷0.935	×1.200	7.26%

Result: FIP 5.09 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 76 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.37 (+1.24)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.30%	—	×0.770	21.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.150	6.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.017	×1.250	5.85%

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 37 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.07 (+1.21)K% 31.7% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.65%	—	×0.740	23.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.04%	—	×1.180	5.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.861	×1.300	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor McCullough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	20.1%	7.3%	2.8%	—	4.41	20.3%	12.5%	99	+0.15	—	—	—
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	79
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	78
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	78
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	76
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	75
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	75
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	74
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	74
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	74
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	73
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	73
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	72
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	72
Andy Ferguson R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SP	3.10	18.6%	8.0%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	137	72
Murphy Smith R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP	3.16	14.9%	7.5%	0.7%	.320	4.13	15.5%	7.9%	217	+0.97	3.16	300	71
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	20.2%	7.6%	1.15	4.33
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*