Connor McCullough

Connor McCullough P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%20.4%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	454	130	25	17	100%	4.9	21.8%	6.4%	15.4%	4.7%	4.29	4.66	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	454	130	25	17	100%	4.9	21.8%	6.4%	15.4%	4.7%	4.29	4.66	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	454	130	25	17	100%	4.9	28.6%	5.5%	23.1%	3.7%	4.29	3.42	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	7.3%	3.38	6.46	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	19.9%	8.3%	11.6%	7.3%	3.38	6.46	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	4	1	13	53	13	4	3	25%	3.3	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	5.7%	3.38	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	18.7%	6.4%	12.4%	3.8%	3.43	4.41	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	18.7%	6.4%	12.4%	3.8%	3.43	4.41	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	42	168	39	10	3	100%	3.2	23.2%	6.0%	17.3%	1.8%	3.43	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	26	26	103	442	110	30	9	100%	4.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.4%	4.28	3.68	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	26	26	103	442	110	30	9	100%	4.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.4%	4.28	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	26	26	103	442	110	30	9	100%	4.0	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	2.0%	4.28	2.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	99	420	86	30	14	100%	5.8	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.3%	4.47	4.48	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	407	84	30	14	100%	6.0	20.5%	7.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.51	4.55	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	92	389	79	30	14	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	87	366	73	29	14	100%	6.2	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.7%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	81	341	67	28	13	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	3.9%	4.92	5.03	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	37	156	32	11	5	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.50	4.51	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	57	241	49	18	8	100%	5.7	20.5%	7.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.54	4.58	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	65	274	56	21	10	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	3.6%	4.63	4.69	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	68	287	58	23	11	100%	6.2	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	3.8%	4.78	4.87	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	68	287	57	24	12	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.0%	4.96	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	49	295	1247	252	97	46	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.40	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	66	31	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		67	63	273	1120	230	77	42	94%	4.1	20.5%	6.9%	13.6%	3.8%	4.09	4.32	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	822	169	57	31	94%	4.1	20.5%	6.9%	13.6%	3.8%	4.09	4.32	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor McCullough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	20.4%	7.1%	3.3%	—	4.56	20.5%	13.1%	288	+0.09	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	78
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	77
Henderson Alvarez R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.2%	6.4%	3.8%	.306	5.22	12.4%	4.7%	121	+0.53	3.67	176	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	75
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	74
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	72
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	71
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	71
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	71
Michael Peoples R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	26	SP	3.75	17.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.313	3.96	17.8%	12.8%	145	+0.21	3.75	577	70
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	69
Logan Workman R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	20.9%	8.4%	2.8%	.341	4.10	19.7%	12.0%	396	+0.16	3.83	573	69
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	69
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	69
Zach Peek R 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	17.5%	7.7%	1.7%	.295	3.82	19.9%	8.3%	69	+0.31	3.51	256	69
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	68
Seth Shuman R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SP	3.70	16.4%	6.2%	2.2%	.281	5.38	16.0%	10.7%	155	+1.68	3.25	354	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	79	20.3%	7.6%	1.38	4.63
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38