Connor McCullough
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.8%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 23 | 113 | 454 | 130 | 25 | 17 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.29 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 4 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.38 | 6.51 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 13 | 13 | 42 | 168 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.43 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 3 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 38 | 159 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.43 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 40 | 179 | 715 | 153 | 47 | 32 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.88 | 4.57 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 800 | 171 | 53 | 36 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.88 | 4.57 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor McCullough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.48 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 29 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 93 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 87 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 84 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 84 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 84 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 83 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 83 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 83 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2029 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 82 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.57 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 323 | 82 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .281 | 5.60 | 15.5% | 4.3% | 32 | +1.07 | 2.03 | 164 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 81 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.