Nathan Wiles — OGILVIE

Nathan Wiles P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%16.9%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4040

CT (25%)

CH-0.5 (38%)

FB-1.4 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	92	375	76	12	14	96%	3.8	15.6%	3.6%	12.0%	4.8%	4.70	4.88	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	92	375	76	12	14	96%	3.8	20.3%	3.2%	17.1%	3.7%	4.70	3.82	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	110	466	96	29	20	81%	4.1	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	4.2%	5.38	4.68	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	110	466	96	29	20	81%	4.1	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	4.2%	5.38	4.68	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	110	466	96	29	20	81%	4.1	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	4.3%	5.38	4.50	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	15.2%	6.0%	9.3%	3.7%	5.54	4.60	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	15.2%	6.0%	9.3%	3.7%	5.54	4.60	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	18.4%	6.6%	11.7%	3.6%	5.54	4.42	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	18.4%	6.5%	12.0%	3.4%	3.25	4.22	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	18.4%	6.5%	12.0%	3.4%	3.25	4.22	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	2.9%	3.25	3.73	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	7	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	27.00	1.10	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	ATL	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	6.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	3.3%	4.63	4.63	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	69	293	51	19	10	100%	5.8	17.3%	6.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	65	275	48	19	10	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	26	110	19	7	4	100%	6.5	17.3%	6.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	36	152	27	11	6	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	10	62	266	46	18	9	91%	5.7	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	3.5%	5.10	4.37	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	853	147	58	29	91%	5.6	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	3.5%	5.10	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		112	75	404	1713	286	94	68	67%	3.6	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	4.0%	4.66	4.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	849	142	47	34	67%	3.6	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	4.0%	4.66	4.58	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Wiles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	16.9%	5.9%	3.3%	—	4.80	17.4%	10.7%	135	+0.17	—	—	—
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	68
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	68
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	65
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	65
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	65
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	64
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	64
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	63
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	63
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	63
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	62
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	62
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	62
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	62
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	62
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	17.2%	6.4%	1.34	4.70
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43