Nathan Wiles

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	27	22	110	5.38	4.50	20.6%	6.2%	—	K 17.5% · BB 5.7% · FIP 4.64
2024	26	AAATB	35	11	88	5.54	4.42	18.4%	6.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.55
2025	27	MIX2 levels	26	19	114	3.25	3.73	22.1%	7.1%	2.3	K 19.1% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.17
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBATL	1	1	7	4.48	4.48	18.0%	6.2%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBATL	4	4	24	4.57	4.65	18.2%	6.8%	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBATL	5	5	31	4.71	4.82	18.2%	7.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command50

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Shawn Haviland (age 29) · Aaron Brooks (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.0%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	92	375	76	12	14	96%	3.8	15.6%	3.6%	12.0%	4.8%	4.70	4.88	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	92	375	76	12	14	96%	3.8	20.3%	3.2%	17.1%	3.7%	4.70	3.82	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	110	466	96	29	20	81%	4.1	17.5%	5.7%	11.8%	4.2%	5.38	4.64	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	110	466	96	29	20	81%	4.1	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	4.3%	5.38	4.50	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	15.8%	6.0%	9.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.55	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	15.8%	6.0%	9.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.55	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	35	11	88	392	72	26	14	31%	2.5	18.4%	6.6%	11.7%	3.6%	5.54	4.42	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	3.4%	3.25	4.17	+1.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	3.4%	3.25	4.17	+1.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	114	480	106	34	14	73%	4.4	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	2.9%	3.25	3.73	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	7	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	27.00	1.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ATL	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	18.0%	6.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	65	273	50	19	9	100%	5.9	18.2%	6.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.57	4.65	+0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	57	239	44	18	9	100%	6.3	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.6%	4.71	4.82	+0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	24	101	18	7	3	100%	6.0	18.2%	6.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.57	4.65	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	31	131	24	10	5	100%	6.2	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.6%	4.71	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	9	56	239	43	17	8	90%	5.6	18.1%	6.9%	11.2%	3.4%	5.05	4.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	854	153	61	29	90%	5.5	18.1%	6.9%	11.2%	3.4%	5.05	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		112	75	404	1713	293	94	68	67%	3.6	17.1%	5.5%	11.6%	4.0%	4.66	4.54	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	849	145	47	34	67%	3.6	17.1%	5.5%	11.6%	4.0%	4.66	4.54	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 113 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.17 (+0.41)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.20%	—	×0.860	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×0.900	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 88 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.55 (+0.21)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.37%	—	×0.860	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.63%	—	×0.900	5.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.061	×1.100	3.70%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 89 IPFIP 5.13 → 5.17 (+0.05)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.860	16.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×0.900	6.34%
HR / BF /BF	4.96%	÷1.137	×1.100	4.80%

Result: FIP 5.13 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 21 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.19 (+0.56)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.92%	—	×0.810	23.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.41%	—	×1.100	2.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.087	×1.200	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 88 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.88 (+0.94)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.770	15.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.09%	—	×1.150	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.93%	÷1.020	×1.250	4.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Wiles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.0%	6.2%	3.2%	—	4.73	18.2%	11.1%	121	+0.25	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	80
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	76
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	75
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	72
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	71
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	70
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	70
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	68
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	68
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	68
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	68
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	68
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	68
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	67
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	18.1%	6.7%	1.28	4.69
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*