Nathan Wiles
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 228 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%17.9%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT (25%)
CH-0.5 (38%)
FB-1.4 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 92 | 375 | 76 | 12 | 14 | 96% | 3.8 | 15.6% | 3.6% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 4.70 | 4.83 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 92 | 375 | 76 | 12 | 14 | 96% | 3.8 | 20.3% | 3.2% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 110 | 466 | 96 | 29 | 20 | 81% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 4.48 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 110 | 466 | 96 | 29 | 20 | 81% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 5.38 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 35 | 11 | 88 | 392 | 72 | 26 | 14 | 31% | 2.5 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.54 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 35 | 11 | 88 | 392 | 72 | 26 | 14 | 31% | 2.5 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 114 | 480 | 106 | 34 | 14 | 73% | 4.4 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 3.25 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 114 | 480 | 106 | 34 | 14 | 73% | 4.4 | 22.1% | 7.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 3.25 | 3.73 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 55 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 47 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.08 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 31 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 80 | 34 | 16 | 94% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 4.52 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 850 | 154 | 66 | 31 | 94% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 75 | 404 | 1713 | 298 | 107 | 66 | 67% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.53 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 849 | 148 | 53 | 33 | 67% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nathan Wiles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.91 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 195 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 70 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 4.1% | 68 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 286 | 70 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 68 |
| Max Beatty R 2024 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 66 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 66 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 65 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 64 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 64 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 64 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 64 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 64 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 63 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 63 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 63 |
| Cody Anderson R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 63 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.96 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 63 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.76 | 13.7% | 6.8% | 327 | +0.37 | 4.00 | 800 | 63 |
| Markus Solbach R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 1.37 | 4.79 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |