Nathan Wiles
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.8
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 228 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
xFIP2.68
SIERA4.00
K%19.5%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%11.8%
IP104
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†4550
CT (25%)
CH-0.5 (38%)
FB-1.4 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 24 | 23 | 92 | 375 | 76 | 12 | 14 | 15.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.70 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 27 | 22 | 110 | 466 | 96 | 29 | 20 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.38 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 35 | 11 | 88 | 392 | 72 | 26 | 14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 26 | 19 | 114 | 480 | 106 | 34 | 14 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 3.25 | 4.27 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 86 | 34 | 15 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 84 | 33 | 14 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 416 | 82 | 33 | 14 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 78 | 32 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 74 | 31 | 14 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 70 | 31 | 13 | 19.0% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 65 | 30 | 13 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 67 | 26 | 13 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 4.86 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 61 | 25 | 12 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 75 | 404 | 1713 | 298 | 107 | 68 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.61 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 849 | 148 | 53 | 34 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nathan Wiles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.68 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 295 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 70 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 69 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 67 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 66 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 65 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 65 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 65 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 64 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 61 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.26 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .333 | 3.86 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 201 | -0.40 | 3.77 | 725 | 61 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 61 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 60 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 60 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 60 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .299 | 5.18 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +1.20 | 3.15 | 678 | 60 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 60 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 60 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 60 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.77 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .336 | 2.72 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -1.05 | 2.48 | 642 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||