Josue Briceño — OGILVIE

Josue BriceñoC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 L/R 6'4" / 200 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 295 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†102

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .297 / .413

PA295

HR13

K%25

BB%9

BABIP251

ISO193

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 61

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER61

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED28

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$20M	+$19M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.1	$21M	+$21M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$20M	+$20M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+3.3	$19M	+$15M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+3.4	$19M	+$12M
2032	Arb-3	$16M	+3.4	$17M	+$9M
Totals		$37M		$117M	+$96M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	161	151	24	5	0	3	7	54	1	1	2	159	201	252	453	93	219	34	4	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	161	145	34	8	0	4	13	37	1	1	2	234	302	372	674	138	283	23	8	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	246	221	52	13	1	6	19	55	2	3	1	235	302	385	686	149	280	22	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	246	210	67	19	2	7	30	36	2	3	1	319	409	529	938	210	351	15	12	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	282	255	58	4	2	2	23	56	3	1	2	227	299	282	581	55	283	20	8	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	282	241	81	10	4	12	37	47	3	1	2	336	431	560	991	224	377	17	13	433	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	442	392	89	16	2	22	39	115	6	1	1	227	307	446	753	219	258	26	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	442	364	97	19	3	20	66	87	6	1	1	266	387	500	887	234	294	20	15	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	DET	—	25	21	6	2	0	1	4	7	0	0	0	286	400	524	924	238	385	28	16	352	128	+1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.2
YTD	21	A	DET	—	25	20	6	2	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	300	440	550	990	250	357	20	20	434	190	+3	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.4
ROS	21	A	DET	4%	295	264	58	10	1	13	26	73	3	2	1	220	297	413	710	193	254	25	9	318	102	+1	+0	-0	+5	+8	1.4
ROS	21	MLB	DET	4%	12	11	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	455	705	273	249	25	8	303	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	A	DET	—	37	32	8	2	0	2	5	10	0	0	0	250	351	500	851	250	300	27	14	336	115	+1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.2
TOT	21	A	DET	—	320	285	64	12	1	14	30	80	3	2	1	225	305	421	726	196	260	25	9	321	104	+1	+0	-0	+6	+9	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	53%	509	453	104	18	3	23	45	124	6	3	1	230	308	435	742	205	259	24	9	324	106	+3	+0	-0	+9	+14	2.7
2028	23	MLB	DET	73%	520	463	109	19	3	24	46	123	6	3	1	235	313	445	758	210	263	24	9	330	110	+6	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.1
2029	24	MLB	DET	79%	520	462	110	19	3	24	47	122	6	3	1	238	317	448	765	210	265	23	9	333	113	+8	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.2
2030	25	MLB	DET	82%	520	462	110	19	3	24	47	121	6	3	1	238	317	448	765	210	266	23	9	335	115	+9	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.3
2031	26	MLB	DET	83%	520	461	111	19	3	25	48	121	6	3	1	241	320	458	778	217	266	23	9	337	116	+9	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.4
2032	27	MLB	DET	82%	520	461	110	19	3	25	48	121	6	3	1	239	318	456	774	217	265	23	9	337	116	+9	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.4
2033	28	MLB	DET	82%	520	460	108	19	2	24	49	122	6	3	1	235	317	441	758	207	265	23	9	336	115	+9	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.3
2034	29	MLB	DET	79%	520	460	108	19	2	24	49	123	6	3	1	235	317	441	758	207	264	24	9	334	114	+8	+0	-2	+9	+15	3.1
2035	30	MLB	DET	78%	520	460	107	18	2	24	49	124	6	2	1	233	315	437	752	204	263	24	9	331	111	+7	+0	-3	+9	+15	2.9
2036	31	MLB	DET	77%	504	446	103	18	2	23	47	122	6	2	1	231	313	435	748	204	260	24	9	327	108	+5	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.5
2037	32	MLB	DET	77%	489	435	97	16	2	21	46	120	5	2	1	223	305	414	718	191	257	25	9	321	104	+2	+0	-4	+9	+14	2.1
2038	33	MLB	DET	77%	470	418	92	15	2	20	44	118	5	1	1	220	302	409	711	189	252	25	9	314	99	-1	-0	-5	+8	+13	1.6
2039	34	MLB	DET	72%	414	369	78	12	2	17	38	106	4	1	0	211	292	393	685	182	246	26	9	305	92	-4	+0	-5	+7	+12	1.0
2040	35	MLB	DET	68%	353	314	64	10	1	14	32	93	4	0	0	204	286	376	662	172	240	26	9	295	84	-6	+0	-6	+6	+10	0.4
2041	36	MLB	DET	59%	290	259	51	7	1	11	26	79	3	0	0	197	278	359	637	162	233	27	9	284	75	-8	+0	-7	+5	+8	-0.1
2042	37	MLB	DET	50%	229	205	38	5	1	8	20	64	2	0	0	185	264	337	601	151	226	28	9	272	66	-9	+0	-7	+4	+6	-0.5
2027	22	MLB	DET	53%	270	241	54	9	1	12	24	66	3	2	1	224	302	419	721	195	254	24	9	309	95	-2	+0	-0	+5	+8	1.1
2028	23	MLB	DET	73%	381	340	77	13	2	17	34	90	4	2	1	226	304	426	731	200	258	24	9	315	99	-0	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.7
2029	24	MLB	DET	79%	412	367	85	15	2	18	37	96	5	2	1	232	311	431	741	199	260	23	9	318	102	+1	+0	-0	+7	+12	2.0
2030	25	MLB	DET	82%	426	379	88	15	2	19	39	99	5	3	1	232	312	433	745	201	261	23	9	320	103	+2	+0	-0	+8	+12	2.2
2031	26	MLB	DET	83%	433	385	89	15	2	20	40	100	5	3	1	231	312	436	748	205	261	23	9	321	104	+2	+0	-0	+8	+12	2.2
2032	27	MLB	DET	82%	427	379	87	15	2	19	40	99	5	3	1	230	311	430	741	201	260	23	9	321	104	+2	+0	-0	+8	+12	2.2
2033	28	MLB	DET	82%	424	376	87	15	2	19	40	99	5	2	1	231	314	434	747	202	260	23	9	320	103	+2	+0	-1	+8	+12	2.1
2034	29	MLB	DET	79%	413	366	83	14	2	18	39	97	5	2	1	227	310	423	733	197	259	23	9	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+7	+12	1.9
2035	30	MLB	DET	78%	406	360	82	14	2	18	38	97	5	2	1	228	310	428	738	200	258	24	9	316	100	-0	+0	-2	+7	+12	1.7
2036	31	MLB	DET	77%	390	346	78	13	2	17	37	94	4	2	1	225	307	422	729	197	255	24	9	312	97	-1	+0	-2	+7	+11	1.5
2037	32	MLB	DET	77%	376	334	74	12	2	16	35	92	4	1	1	222	303	413	716	192	252	24	9	307	93	-3	-0	-3	+7	+11	1.1
2038	33	MLB	DET	77%	360	319	68	11	1	15	34	90	4	1	0	213	297	395	692	182	248	25	9	300	88	-5	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.9
2039	34	MLB	DET	72%	299	266	56	9	1	12	28	77	3	1	0	211	293	387	680	177	242	26	9	291	81	-6	+0	-4	+5	+8	0.4
2040	35	MLB	DET	68%	239	213	42	6	1	9	22	63	2	0	0	197	278	362	640	164	235	26	9	282	74	-7	+0	-4	+4	+7	-0.0
2041	36	MLB	DET	59%	170	151	29	4	1	6	15	46	2	0	0	192	274	351	625	159	229	27	9	271	66	-7	+0	-4	+3	+5	-0.3
2042	37	MLB	DET	50%	114	102	18	2	0	4	10	32	1	0	0	176	257	314	570	137	222	28	9	260	57	-6	+0	-4	+2	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5552	4935	1099	182	25	240	513	1340	62	26	11	223	304	416	719	193	254	24	9	310	95	-28	+1	-30	+99	+157	20.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	128	21	3	28	60	157	7	3	1	221	302	413	716	192	253	24	9	310	95	-3	+0	-4	+12	+18	2.4
Career	—			—	8844	7871	1781	300	41	377	795	2156	98	40	19	226	305	418	724	192	260	24	9	319	102	+24	+0	-45	+158	+251	39.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	131	22	3	28	58	158	7	3	1	227	304	420	725	194	260	24	9	319	102	+2	+0	-3	+12	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	161	145	34	8	0	4	13	37	1	1	2	234	302	372	674	138	283	23	8	300	88	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.2
2023	18	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	48	41	12	6	0	0	7	8	0	0	0	293	396	439	835	146	364	17	15	375	145	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	18	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	198	169	55	13	2	7	23	28	2	3	1	325	412	550	963	225	348	14	12	413	175	+17	+0	—	—	+6	2.3
2024	19	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	176	151	42	5	2	2	22	26	3	1	2	278	381	377	758	99	325	15	12	348	124	+5	-1	—	—	+5	0.9
2024	19	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	106	90	39	5	2	10	15	21	0	0	0	433	514	867	1.381	433	483	20	14	574	297	+24	+0	—	—	+3	2.7
2025	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	198	168	39	6	2	5	25	47	2	0	1	232	337	381	718	149	288	24	13	322	105	+1	-0	—	—	+6	0.6
2025	20	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	244	196	58	13	1	15	41	40	4	1	0	296	427	602	1.029	306	299	16	17	440	195	+26	+0	—	—	+7	3.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,552	249	26	229	306	430	+80	-48	29.1	23.8
	/162	664	30	3	229	306	430	+9.6	-5.7	3.5	pk7: 18
#2Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
#3Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josue Briceño (OGILVIE)	21	39→48	54→61	30→28	55	225/305/421	196	260	14	2	25%	9%	104	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	114	+2.7	222/277/341	119	269	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	197/240/273	76	241	5	5	20%	5%	33	-0.7
●Chris Carter 2006 · AA	23	48→57	57→55	37→40	48	253/308/446	193	266	26	2	17%	6%	112	+2.6	261/314/420	159	289	18	5	16%	7%	107	+2.2	266/317/421	154	295	18	4	16%	6%	106	+2.1
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	40→49	58→60	38→30	36	221/267/417	196	296	28	3	35%	5%	88	+0.9	242/298/439	197	329	27	2	33%	7%	106	+2.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	39→49	65→60	40→50	46	226/295/469	243	272	35	5	32%	9%	113	+2.6	227/308/420	193	280	23	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/304/400	180	274	20	5	26%	10%	95	+1.3
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	45	63→65	43→40	46	246/322/478	232	306	32	4	30%	9%	127	+3.6	232/304/438	206	282	28	4	28%	8%	109	+2.4	225/301/427	202	268	28	2	27%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Jordan Diaz 2023 · MLB	22	53→56	55	42→30	43	274/310/456	182	307	23	3	20%	5%	115	+2.8	254/298/416	162	298	21	2	22%	5%	100	+1.7	246/294/401	155	288	21	0	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	107	+2.2	228/302/388	160	306	18	7	30%	8%	95	+1.4	229/300/383	153	297	17	7	27%	7%	90	+0.6
●Tyler Soderstrom 2023 · AAA	21	44→54	58→60	44→40	37	236/282/437	201	313	27	3	33%	5%	99	+1.7	228/287/417	189	288	25	4	30%	7%	96	+1.5	257/339/469	212	298	26	4	22%	10%	126	+2.6
★Nolan Arenado 2012 · A	21	47→56	55→65	42→40	44	248/280/431	183	256	23	3	15%	4%	96	+1.5	244/281/392	148	265	16	2	15%	5%	85	+0.7	268/329/491	223	273	29	3	14%	8%	126	+3.7
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	47→49	57→55	45→55	50	241/329/438	198	309	25	7	29%	10%	118	+3.0	207/285/370	163	278	19	9	31%	9%	83	+0.6	217/292/336	119	282	11	13	25%	9%	74	-0.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	57→60	45→50	44	212/294/409	197	278	26	6	33%	8%	97	+1.5	245/312/431	186	310	22	9	27%	7%	110	+2.4	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	50→57	56→55	43→45	49	260/325/460	200	306	23	7	23%	8%	122	+3.3	256/311/418	162	295	16	6	18%	7%	105	+2.1	272/332/455	183	307	15	6	16%	8%	117	+3.0
✕Travis Snider 2010 · MLB	22	49→53	53→60	39→50	44	245/312/423	177	336	21	4	32%	8%	107	+2.2	249/304/411	162	317	18	12	26%	7%	101	+1.8	251/304/402	151	313	16	15	24%	7%	95	+1.1
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	220/283/396	176	316	23	4	37%	8%	89	+0.9	203/255/348	145	298	17	4	36%	6%	64	-0.8	213/287/426	213	282	31	7	35%	9%	96	+1.2
●Mike Moustakas 2011 · AAA	22	44→54	54→65	44→45	40	233/264/411	179	257	23	5	21%	4%	85	+0.7	247/293/401	154	283	17	4	19%	5%	94	+1.3	264/326/513	248	264	35	2	16%	7%	131	+3.9
●Ryan McMahon 2016 · A	21	46→56	52→55	38→45	38	230/284/402	172	328	18	5	35%	6%	90	+1.0	235/286/378	143	334	14	8	32%	6%	85	+0.7	233/294/378	145	309	16	7	28%	7%	85	+0.6
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	46→51	51→50	37→45	50	235/310/393	158	290	19	4	26%	9%	99	+1.7	228/303/362	134	273	15	4	21%	9%	88	+0.9	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2014 · MLB	23	49→51	56→60	42→45	42	250/306/446	196	324	24	4	30%	7%	111	+2.5	228/287/413	185	293	24	3	30%	6%	95	+1.4	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	43→49	52→60	41→40	43	226/283/398	171	279	20	3	27%	6%	89	+0.9	228/283/384	156	267	17	3	21%	7%	85	+0.7	233/324/433	200	262	26	1	22%	9%	110	+1.3
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	40→50	49→50	40→50	46	210/286/345	135	271	18	4	29%	8%	77	+0.1	236/321/369	133	306	14	10	26%	10%	98	+1.6	276/369/436	160	338	18	13	22%	11%	130	+2.7