Iván Herrera

C St. Louis Cardinals
Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 220 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 3.198 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAASTL112.280/.402/.4735399—.245/.339/.398
202424MLBSTL259.301/.374/.428551292.6
202525AAASTL30.433/.433/.60012139—.400/.400/.567
202525MLBSTL452.284/.375/.4641981414.2
202626MLBSTL717.241/.355/.3821981134.1
2027PROJ27MLBSTL445.259/.361/.4161461242.7
2028PROJ28MLBSTL445.257/.359/.4111451232.5
2029PROJ29MLBSTL445.255/.356/.4051331202.3
Last 3 seasons WAR 10.9  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 7.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.198First FA2030
2027Arb-1$5M2028Arb-2$9M2029Arb-3$12M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA89
Bat Spd77
Avg EV62
Barrel%50
Speed22
Form.252/.348/.422 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .260/.359/.423
CompsJhonny Peralta (age 27) · Brian Anderson (age 27) · Ryan Doumit (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 130124vR 108
AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .361 / .416
PA445
HR14
SB6
K%19
BB%10
BABIP298
ISO160
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +13.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+13BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -4.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-4FLDPOS: +7.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+8POSREP: +9.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +3.00+3.0WAR
0.01.53.03.02.52.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
xAVG
670.265
POWER55
Barrel%
508.2
Avg EV
6290.0
Bat Spd
7774.2
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
2226.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%▼▼24% over 114 PA (60d) · proj 19%
BB%9%▼9% over 114 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.170·.182 over 99 AB (60d) · proj .163
HR/BB5.7%▲6.8% over 73 BBE (60d) · proj 5.0%
BABIP.294·.265 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .297
SLASH.252/.348/.422·proj .260/.359/.423
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 831 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
244
587
—
wRC+
150
124
◀◀L
wOBA
390
351
◀L
ISO
216
144
◀◀L
BABIP
304
329
▶R
K%
17.2%
19.1%
◀L
BB%
12.3%
8.7%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2022
Service   3.198 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$5M+3.0$27M+$22M
2028Arb-2$9M+2.5$19M+$11M
2029Arb-3$12M+2.3$16M+$6M
Totals $26M $61M +$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201717 ROKDSL Cardinals — 201170 571501 183610 22 335429441870 106415 189 390 66 — — — — — —
201818 ROKGCL Cardinals — 130112 39641 11205 11 348430500930 152409 158 407 95 — — — — — —
201919 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 6558 16001 5161 00 276344328671 52357 258 306 57 — — — — — —
201919 APeoria Chiefs — 291248 711008 35565 11 286385423809 137337 1912 363 80 — — — — — —
201919 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 4134 11200 542 00 324439382821 59367 1012 382 145 — — — — — —
202020 INTLCaneros de los Mochis — 5849 9100 8131 11 184310204514 20250 2214 256 59 — — — — — —
202121 AASpringfield Cardinals — 437363 8413017 60967 23 231351408759 176261 2214 339 80 — — — — — —
202121 INTLPanama — 2120 6000 130 00 300333300633 353 145 292 84 — — — — — —
202222 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 2218 2000 280 00 111200111311 182 369 146 -14 -3 +0 -0 +6 +0 0.3
202222 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 278235 631016 38523 51 268377396773 128318 1914 350 86 — — — — — —
202222 INTLPanama — 4130 7010 754 10 233439300739 67280 1217 363 132 — — — — — —
202323 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 4437 11200 5112 00 297409351760 54423 2511 356 127 +1 +0 +0 +8 +1 1.1
202323 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 375290 8627110 75778 112 297453500953 203371 2120 423 133 — — — — — —
202323 INTLPanama — 3528 10103 572 10 3574867141.200 357389 2014 512 233 — — — — — —
202424 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 259229 691215 25532 50 301374428801 127370 2010 357 129 +9 +1 +3 +7 +6 2.6
202424 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 11293 26115 19200 30 280402473875 194309 1817 391 99 — — — — — —
202525 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 452388 11013019 438415 82 284375464839 180315 1910 371 141 +22 +1 -0 +9 +10 4.2
202525 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 3030 13201 080 20 4334336001.033 167571 270 457 139 — — — — — —
202626 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 717605 14626119 7613831 80 241355382737 140280 1911 336 113 +11 +2 -1 +13 +16 4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14941277 33853243 15129450 212 265364410774 146310 2010 348 122 +39 +3 +2 +42 +32 12.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201717 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 201175 401000 134410 22 229318286604 57282 226 266 66 — — — — — —
201818 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 130116 31431 7295 11 267336379715 112332 225 308 95 — — — — — —
201919 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 6559 13001 4221 00 220281271552 51328 346 253 57 — — — — — —
201919 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 291260 61706 23745 11 235309331640 96297 258 287 80 — — — — — —
202121 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 437380 7911014 431207 23 208300347647 139250 2710 287 80 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 2218 2000 280 00 111200111311 182 369 147 -14 -3 +0 -0 +6 +0 0.3
202222 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 278247 59914 26643 51 239319332651 93303 239 295 86 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 4437 11200 5112 00 297409351760 54423 2511 356 127 +1 +0 +0 +8 +1 1.1
202323 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 375311 842618 54938 112 270391437829 167356 2514 365 133 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 259230 681115 25532 50 296370417787 122370 2010 359 129 +9 +1 +3 +7 +6 2.6
202424 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 11298 24114 14250 30 245339398737 153288 2212 314 99 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 452391 11012020 428415 82 281373465838 184315 199 376 141 +22 +1 -0 +9 +10 4.2
202525 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 3030 12201 0100 20 400400567967 167541 330 373 139 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 717610 14625120 7113831 80 239348382730 143280 1910 335 113 +11 +2 -1 +13 +16 4.1
201717 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 201175 401000 134410 22 229318286604 57301 226 266 66 — — — — — —
201717 ROK RAWDSL Cardinals — 201170 571501 183610 22 335429441870 106415 189 390 66 — — — — — —
201818 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 130116 31431 7295 11 267336379715 112341 225 308 95 — — — — — —
201818 ROK RAWGCL Cardinals — 130112 39641 11205 11 348430500930 152409 158 407 95 — — — — — —
201919 A MLE3 teams — 397355 84808 301078 11 237310327637 90311 278 281 76 — — — — — —
201919 A RAW3 teams — 397340 981209 45768 11 288384403787 115344 1911 355 76 — — — — — —
202020 INTL MLECaneros de los Mochis — 5849 9100 8131 11 184310204514 20250 2214 — — — — — — — —
202020 INTL RAWCaneros de los Mochis — 5849 9100 8131 11 184310204514 20250 2214 256 59 — — — — — —
202121 AA MLE2 teams — 458399 8311015 451267 23 208299348648 140257 2810 287 80 — — — — — —
202121 AA RAW2 teams — 458383 9013017 61997 23 235350402752 167266 2213 336 80 — — — — — —
202222 AAA MLE3 teams — 341298 701015 32827 61 235323326649 91304 249 284 78 — — — — — —
202222 AAA RAW3 teams — 341283 721026 47657 61 254374367741 113307 1914 338 78 — — — — — —
202323 AAA MLE3 teams — 454376 1043119 6411312 122 277398436834 160371 2514 364 132 — — — — — —
202323 AAA RAW3 teams — 454355 10730113 859512 122 301451501953 200378 2119 424 132 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 371328 921229 39782 80 280360412772 131342 2111 346 120 +9 +2 +3 +7 +8 2.8
202424 MLB RAW2 teams — 371322 9513210 44732 80 295382441823 146353 2012 367 120 +9 +2 +3 +7 +8 2.8
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 482421 12214021 429415 102 290374473847 183326 209 376 141 +23 +1 -0 +9 +10 4.4
202525 MLB RAW2 teams — 482418 12315020 439215 102 294379474852 179332 199 377 141 +23 +1 -0 +9 +10 4.4
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 717610 14625120 7113831 80 239348382730 143276 1910 335 113 +11 +2 -1 +13 +16 4.1
202626 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 717605 14626119 7613831 80 241355382737 140280 1911 336 113 +11 +2 -1 +13 +16 4.1
201717 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 201176 401000 134410 22 227318284602 57282 226 266 66 — — — — — —
201818 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 130117 31431 7295 11 265336376712 111332 225 308 95 — — — — — —
201919 A MLE3 teams — 397356 84808 301078 11 236310326636 90303 278 281 76 — — — — — —
202121 AA MLE2 teams — 458403 8311015 451267 23 206299345644 139250 2810 287 80 — — — — — —
202222 AAA MLE3 teams — 341299 701015 32827 61 234323324648 90294 249 284 78 — — — — — —
202323 AAA MLE3 teams — 454375 1043119 6411312 122 277398437836 160363 2514 364 132 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 371327 921229 39782 80 281360413773 131345 2111 346 120 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 482422 12214021 429415 102 289374472846 182329 209 376 141 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 717609 14625120 7113831 80 240348383731 143280 1910 335 113 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 371327 921229 39782 80 281360413773 131345 2111 346 120 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLE2 teams — 482422 12214021 429415 102 289374472846 182329 209 376 141 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 717609 14625120 7113831 80 240348383731 143280 1910 335 113 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLESTL 100% 637545 14223121 6312324 83 260362423785 163297 1910 352 124 +19 +0 -6 +11 +14 3.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXSTL 100% 445381 10017114 448617 62 259361416777 157298 1910 349 124 +13 +0 -4 +8 +10 2.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLESTL 100% 445381 9916115 448717 52 258360418778 160296 2010 349 123 +12 +0 -5 +8 +10 2.5
202929 MLB MLESTL 100% 445382 9715114 438817 31 256357412768 156294 2010 346 120 +11 +0 -5 +8 +10 2.3
203030 MLB MLESTL 100% 445382 9615014 438917 21 252353403756 151292 2010 341 117 +9 +0 -6 +8 +10 2.1
203131 MLB MLESTL 100% 426366 9014013 418716 11 247348391739 144288 2010 334 112 +6 -0 -7 +8 +9 1.6
203232 MLB MLESTL 100% 407350 8513012 398515 10 241341377717 136283 2110 326 107 +3 +0 -7 +7 +9 1.2
203333 MLB MLESTL 100% 387334 7711010 368314 10 233333359692 126277 219 315 100 -0 +0 -8 +7 +8 0.8
203434 MLB MLESTL 96% 361312 70909 338013 10 224322339661 116269 229 303 91 -4 +0 -8 +6 +8 0.3
203535 MLB MLESTL 91% 280243 51606 256510 00 213311317628 104261 239 290 82 -6 +0 -8 +5 +6 -0.3
202828 MLB CTXSTL 100% 445381 9816114 448717 52 257359411770 154297 2010 347 123 +12 +0 -5 +8 +10 2.5
202929 MLB CTXSTL 100% 445382 9716113 438817 31 255356405761 150296 2010 343 120 +11 +0 -5 +8 +10 2.3
203030 MLB CTXSTL 100% 445382 9616013 438917 21 251352396748 145293 2010 338 117 +9 +0 -6 +8 +10 2.1
203131 MLB CTXSTL 100% 426366 9015012 418716 11 246347385732 139290 2010 332 112 +6 -0 -7 +8 +9 1.6
203232 MLB CTXSTL 100% 407350 8413011 398515 10 240340371711 131285 2110 323 107 +3 +0 -7 +7 +9 1.2
203333 MLB CTXSTL 100% 387334 7812010 368314 10 232332354685 121279 219 313 100 -0 +0 -8 +7 +8 0.8
203434 MLB CTXSTL 96% 345299 66908 317712 00 223322334656 111271 229 301 91 -4 +0 -8 +6 +7 0.2
203535 MLB CTXSTL 91% 255221 47605 23599 00 213310313623 100262 239 288 82 -5 +0 -7 +5 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 46493992 9941564129 451949167 347 249349387736 138294 2010 333 106 +70 +4 -51 +99 +101 22.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650558 14022118 6313323 51 251350391741 140297 2010 333 106 +10 +1 -7 +14 +14 3.2
Career— MLE — 72506258 154624111196 6991574234 7120 247345383728 136298 2210 325 106 +83 +5 -57 +107 +111 25.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650561 13922118 6314121 62 248346387733 139298 2210 325 106 +10 +1 -7 +14 +14 3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 30 PAwOBA .443 → .373 (−70)K% 26.7% → 33.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷0.953×1.200——33.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.954×0.690—×1.0330.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP45.45%÷0.982×0.930—×1.03344.47%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.033×0.830—×1.0337.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷0.869×0.700—×1.0333.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .443 → .373; ISO .167 → .126; BABIP .571 → .541. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 112 PAwOBA .381 → .314 (−67)K% 17.9% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.86%÷0.953×1.200——22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.96%÷1.014×0.690—×1.04812.09%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP26.03%÷0.991×0.930×0.976×1.04824.98%
Doubles /BIP1.37%÷0.920×0.830×0.976×1.0481.26%
Triples /BIP1.37%÷1.150×0.970×0.976×1.0481.18%
Home runs /BIP6.85%÷1.020×0.700—×1.0484.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .381 → .314; ISO .194 → .145; BABIP .309 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 375 PAwOBA .416 → .365 (−51)K% 20.5% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.53%÷0.990×1.200——24.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷1.010×0.690—×1.05014.34%
HBP% /PA2.13%—×0.940—×1.0502.11%
Singles /BIP22.54%÷1.040×0.930×1.050×1.05022.21%
Doubles /BIP12.68%÷0.969×0.830×1.050×1.05011.97%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.150×0.970×1.050×1.0500.44%
Home runs /BIP4.69%÷0.955×0.700—×1.0503.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .416 → .365; ISO .203 → .180; BABIP .371 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 278 PAwOBA .344 → .295 (−49)K% 18.7% → 23.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.71%÷0.976×1.200——23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.67%÷1.053×0.690—×1.0509.40%
HBP% /PA1.08%—×0.940—×1.0501.07%
Singles /BIP25.14%÷1.051×0.930×1.050×1.05024.53%
Doubles /BIP5.46%÷1.019×0.830×1.050×1.0504.91%
Triples /BIP0.55%÷1.150×0.970×1.050×1.0500.51%
Home runs /BIP3.28%÷1.048×0.700—×1.0502.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .344 → .295; ISO .128 → .101; BABIP .318 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 437 PAwOBA .335 → .287 (−48)K% 22.0% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.97%÷0.975×1.220——27.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.73%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0509.75%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.850—×1.0501.43%
Singles /BIP20.22%÷1.003×0.940×1.016×1.05020.22%
Doubles /BIP4.87%÷1.107×0.870×1.016×1.0504.08%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.920×1.016×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP6.37%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0505.27%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .335 → .287; ISO .176 → .147; BABIP .261 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 APeoria Chiefs · 291 PAwOBA .356 → .287 (−69)K% 19.2% → 25.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.24%÷1.033×1.360——25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.68%÷1.073×0.690—×1.0457.85%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.780—×1.0451.40%
Singles /BIP27.60%÷0.996×0.920×0.950×1.04525.32%
Doubles /BIP5.21%÷1.103×0.830×0.950×1.0453.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.910×0.950×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷1.105×0.800—×1.0453.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 102, K 107, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .356 → .287; ISO .137 → .102; BABIP .337 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 65 PAwOBA .303 → .253 (−50)K% 24.6% → 34.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.62%÷1.014×1.420——34.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷0.991×0.750—×1.0506.12%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.930—×1.0501.50%
Singles /BIP35.71%÷1.048×0.920—×1.05032.92%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.047×0.960—×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.810—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.38%÷0.912×0.880—×1.0502.41%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .303 → .253; ISO .052 → .047; BABIP .357 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Cardinals · 130 PAwOBA .403 → .308 (−95)K% 15.4% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.38%÷1.000×1.440——22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.46%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0225.36%
HBP% /PA3.85%—×0.720—×1.0222.83%
Singles /BIP30.43%÷1.000×0.820×1.002×1.02225.58%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷1.000×0.720×1.002×1.0224.81%
Triples /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.720×1.002×1.0223.21%
Home runs /BIP1.09%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0220.87%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .403 → .308; ISO .152 → .112; BABIP .409 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .