MJ Melendez

LF Syracuse Mets

Age 28 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 3.506 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	MLBKC	451	.206/.273/.400	17	4	91	-0.8
2025	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	545	.250/.321/.457	20	20	61	—	.194/.248/.359
2025	26	MLBKC	65	.083/.154/.167	1	0	-8	-1.3
2026	27	AAANYM	305	.264/.361/.604	22	5	89	—	.201/.272/.435
2026	27	MLBNYM	144	.192/.317/.350	4	0	95	-0.3
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBNYM	42	.197/.270/.381	2	1	85	-0.0
2028PROJ	29	MLBNYM	404	.194/.267/.374	14	6	82	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.506First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV89

Bat Spd63

Barrel%55

xwOBA43

Speed43

CompsSam Hilliard (age 29) · Corey Brown (age 28) · Christin Stewart (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5685vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .270 / .381

PA42

HR2

K%31

BB%7

BABIP255

ISO205

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.212

POWER50

Barrel%

559.0

Avg EV

8991.8

Bat Spd

6372.8

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 505 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

431

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

174

293

▶▶R

ISO

055

201

▶▶R

BABIP

207

234

▶R

20.3%

27.4%

◀◀L

BB%

1.4%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.506 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	150	44	4	3	13	32	39	0	1	2	293	418	620	1.038	327	310	21	17	441	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	347	298	85	18	0	28	43	76	1	2	4	285	377	628	1.005	342	286	22	12	425	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	534	460	100	21	3	18	66	131	1	2	3	217	317	393	710	176	258	25	12	316	103	+2	-1	-17	+11	+12	0.6
2022	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	91	78	13	4	0	2	13	22	0	3	0	167	286	295	581	128	204	24	14	271	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	104	+3	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.1
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	91	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2025	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	65	60	5	2	0	1	3	23	2	0	0	83	154	167	321	83	111	35	5	154	-8	-8	+0	+1	-7	+1	-1.3
2025	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	480	433	113	33	3	20	39	135	3	20	8	261	326	490	816	229	329	28	8	354	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	65	55	9	2	0	0	9	13	0	0	1	164	281	200	481	36	209	20	14	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	144	120	23	5	1	4	17	50	5	0	1	192	317	350	667	158	284	35	12	303	95	-1	-0	+0	-5	+3	-0.3
2026	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	305	265	70	20	2	22	40	79	0	5	6	264	361	604	964	340	293	26	13	414	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1796	1585	338	80	12	56	183	487	14	12	12	213	300	385	685	172	268	27	10	305	93	-15	-2	-33	-11	+39	-2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	178	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	174	258	275	533	101	310	43	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	433	81	18	7	14	29	192	4	4	6	187	245	358	603	171	276	41	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	381	43	15	1	8	26	229	5	7	5	113	180	220	400	108	224	55	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	159	39	4	3	9	23	47	0	1	2	245	341	478	819	233	281	26	12	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	347	310	75	14	0	24	31	90	1	2	4	242	313	519	832	277	247	26	9	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	534	461	101	21	3	19	65	131	1	2	3	219	317	401	718	182	258	25	12	320	103	+2	-1	-17	+11	+12	0.6
2022	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	91	82	10	3	0	1	9	28	0	3	0	122	209	195	404	73	176	31	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	535	127	29	5	17	60	170	3	6	4	237	318	406	723	168	311	28	10	321	104	+3	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	414	86	23	3	18	34	113	3	4	4	208	273	408	681	200	241	25	8	303	91	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	65	60	5	2	0	1	3	23	2	0	0	83	154	167	321	83	111	35	5	157	-8	-8	+0	+1	-7	+1	-1.3
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	480	443	86	25	3	14	29	161	3	20	8	194	248	359	607	165	261	34	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	144	120	23	5	1	4	17	50	5	0	1	192	317	350	667	158	284	35	12	309	95	-1	-0	+0	-5	+3	-0.3
2026	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	305	278	56	16	2	15	27	95	0	5	6	201	272	435	707	234	240	31	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	178	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	174	258	275	533	101	315	43	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	433	81	18	7	14	29	192	4	4	6	187	245	358	603	171	288	41	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A RAW	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	381	43	15	1	8	26	229	5	7	5	113	180	220	400	108	236	55	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	531	469	114	18	3	33	54	137	1	3	6	243	323	505	828	262	265	26	10	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	531	448	129	22	3	41	75	115	1	3	6	288	391	625	1.016	337	294	22	14	430	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	625	543	113	24	3	21	74	159	1	5	3	208	304	379	684	171	249	25	12	304	92	-6	-0	-17	+11	+14	0.1
2022	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	625	538	113	25	3	20	79	153	1	5	3	210	312	379	691	169	250	24	13	309	92	-6	-0	-17	+11	+14	0.1
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	535	127	29	5	17	60	170	3	6	4	237	318	406	723	168	312	28	10	321	104	+3	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.1
2023	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	104	+3	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	414	86	23	3	18	34	113	3	4	4	208	273	408	681	200	240	25	8	303	91	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	91	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	563	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	569	151	248	34	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	610	548	127	37	3	21	51	171	5	20	9	232	303	425	728	193	293	28	8	320	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	449	398	79	21	3	19	44	145	5	5	7	198	286	410	696	211	255	32	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	449	385	93	25	3	26	57	129	5	5	7	242	347	525	871	283	290	29	13	378	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	176	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	176	258	278	536	102	310	43	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	436	81	18	7	14	29	192	4	4	6	186	245	356	600	170	276	41	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	385	43	15	1	8	26	229	5	7	5	112	180	218	398	106	224	55	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	531	471	114	18	3	33	54	137	1	3	6	242	323	503	826	261	259	26	10	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	625	545	113	24	3	21	74	159	1	5	3	207	304	378	682	171	246	25	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	534	127	29	5	17	60	170	3	6	4	238	318	406	724	169	311	28	10	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	411	86	23	3	18	34	113	3	4	4	209	273	411	684	202	241	25	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	564	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	568	151	243	34	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	449	397	79	21	3	19	44	145	5	5	7	199	286	411	697	212	254	32	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	411	86	23	3	18	34	113	3	4	4	209	273	411	684	202	241	25	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	564	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	568	151	243	34	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	449	397	79	21	3	19	44	145	5	5	7	199	286	411	697	212	254	32	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	499	451	91	24	3	18	40	160	5	9	2	203	275	391	666	188	265	32	8	294	85	-9	+1	+0	-5	+11	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	42	39	8	2	0	2	3	13	0	1	0	197	270	381	651	184	255	31	7	288	85	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	404	365	72	19	2	14	32	131	4	6	2	200	272	384	656	184	263	32	8	290	82	-8	+0	-1	-4	+9	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	404	365	70	18	2	14	32	131	4	6	2	194	267	374	641	180	253	32	8	284	82	-8	+0	-1	-4	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2200	1950	408	98	14	70	215	618	18	18	14	209	293	382	675	172	265	28	10	301	79	-24	-2	-35	-16	+48	-2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	121	29	4	21	64	183	5	5	4	210	295	384	678	174	266	28	10	301	79	-7	-1	-10	-5	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5180	4657	925	223	35	178	439	1702	39	72	50	199	273	376	649	178	265	33	8	285	79	-31	-1	-35	-20	+57	-3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	115	28	4	22	55	214	5	9	6	197	272	372	643	175	263	33	8	285	79	-8	-0	-9	-5	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 305 PAwOBA .401 → .300 (−101)K% 25.9% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.98%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.965	×0.992	12.44%
Doubles /BIP	10.75%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.965	×0.992	8.54%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.965	×0.992	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.83%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	8.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .401 → .300; ISO .340 → .244; BABIP .293 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 480 PAwOBA .348 → .262 (−86)K% 28.1% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.12%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	33.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.01%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.59%
Singles /BIP	19.13%	÷1.108	×0.930	×0.960	×1.003	15.45%
Doubles /BIP	11.07%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.960	×1.003	8.79%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.960	×1.003	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	6.71%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .348 → .262; ISO .229 → .166; BABIP .329 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 91 PAwOBA .265 → .205 (−60)K% 24.2% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.18%	÷0.957	×1.200	—	—	30.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.32%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.953	×1.048	11.43%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.041	×0.830	×0.953	×1.048	5.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.953	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .265 → .205; ISO .128 → .095; BABIP .204 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 347 PAwOBA .419 → .350 (−69)K% 21.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.90%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.39%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×1.027	8.89%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.25%
Singles /BIP	17.57%	÷0.980	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	16.44%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷1.117	×0.870	×0.950	×1.027	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.61%	÷0.957	×0.780	—	×1.027	10.56%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .419 → .350; ISO .342 → .287; BABIP .286 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 184 PAwOBA .434 → .356 (−78)K% 21.2% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.20%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×1.050	12.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.056	×0.930	×1.009	×1.050	20.16%
Doubles /BIP	3.60%	÷0.978	×0.830	×1.009	×1.050	3.24%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷0.936	×0.920	×1.009	×1.050	2.81%
Home runs /BIP	11.71%	÷1.027	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.38%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .434 → .356; ISO .327 → .256; BABIP .310 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 419 PAwOBA .255 → .177 (−78)K% 39.4% → 54.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.38%	÷1.024	×1.420	—	—	54.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.50%	÷1.102	×0.630	—	×1.027	6.16%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	1.05%
Singles /BIP	12.63%	÷0.999	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	11.59%
Doubles /BIP	11.62%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.950	×1.027	9.46%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷0.921	×0.800	×0.950	×1.027	0.86%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.884	×0.900	—	×1.027	4.75%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 84, K 105, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .255 → .177; ISO .149 → .112; BABIP .259 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 472 PAwOBA .348 → .256 (−92)K% 30.3% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.30%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	40.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.11%	÷1.016	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.09%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.67%
Singles /BIP	18.48%	÷1.047	×0.920	×1.004	×1.030	16.79%
Doubles /BIP	9.42%	÷1.112	×0.820	×1.004	×1.030	7.18%
Triples /BIP	3.26%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.004	×1.030	2.76%
Home runs /BIP	6.88%	÷1.051	×0.820	—	×1.030	5.53%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 109, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .348 → .256; ISO .241 → .174; BABIP .327 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Royals · 198 PAwOBA .349 → .234 (−115)K% 30.3% → 43.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.30%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	43.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.13%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	8.20%
HBP% /PA	2.02%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.47%
Singles /BIP	26.85%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.018	×1.008	22.58%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.018	×1.008	5.47%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.018	×1.008	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.91%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .349 → .234; ISO .155 → .101; BABIP .385 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Charlie Spikes'72-'80 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,232 PA	3.4	2,232	65	27	246*	307*	433*	-26	-16	1.3	1.7
/162	664	19	8	-7.6	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.4	2,242	72	19	212	292	387	-24	-54	0.9	1.0
/162	664	21	6	-7.1	-15.9	0.3	pk7: 1
#2Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#3Dan Meyer'74-'85 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,027 PA	6.1	4,027	86	61	249*	293*	406*	-51	-24	-2.3	0.2
/162	664	14	10	-8.5	-3.9	-0.4	pk7: 3
#4Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#5Rowdy Tellezlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,617 PA	3.9	2,617	122	5	234	300	437	-47	-55	-1.6	-1.1
/162	664	31	1	-11.9	-14.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
MJ Melendez (OGILVIE)	28	45	50	50	45	201/273/387	186	265	15	8	32%	8%	85	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	37→47	53→55	54→55	46	203/278/374	171	267	22	14	32%	9%	83	+0.1	219/287/392	173	305	20	17	33%	9%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Corey Brown 2014 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	50	40	224/281/405	180	309	22	14	34%	7%	91	+0.6	199/247/358	159	284	20	13	36%	6%	68	-1.0	196/252/364	168	277	21	17	37%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→48	52→55	47→45	41	213/274/382	170	278	21	4	31%	6%	83	+0.1	205/285/361	156	298	20	10	36%	9%	83	+0.1	174/273/315	142	254	20	11	38%	10%	66	-0.8
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	55	52→50	42	229/290/415	186	309	23	12	33%	7%	97	+1.1	224/285/384	160	302	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.4	210/273/367	157	281	15	8	30%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	40→39	54→55	45→40	42	215/272/392	177	261	22	5	28%	6%	85	+0.2	214/272/352	138	272	18	4	27%	7%	76	-0.4	201/264/311	109	259	15	1	28%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Mike Wilson 2011 · AAA	28	40→50	54→55	50	45	215/291/387	173	274	23	12	30%	8%	91	+0.7	229/296/384	155	306	19	8	30%	8%	92	+0.7	227/293/374	147	307	17	4	30%	7%	85	+0.1
✕John-Ford Griffin 2008 · AAA	28	39→40	53→55	50→40	42	212/267/383	172	270	21	5	30%	7%	81	-0.1	221/278/362	141	286	14	6	27%	7%	80	-0.2	220/279/349	129	282	11	4	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕CJ Alexander 2024 · AAA	28	36→46	53→55	51→50	37	202/244/368	167	261	22	13	32%	5%	69	-0.9	216/266/374	158	288	18	7	30%	6%	78	-0.3	209/262/367	158	279	18	4	31%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	54→55	52→45	43	225/297/407	182	291	22	7	30%	7%	98	+1.2	221/298/387	166	291	20	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	167/268/315	147	210	19	4	30%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→43	55	44→50	44	211/277/391	180	269	24	5	31%	8%	86	+0.3	212/275/364	152	270	19	5	28%	8%	79	-0.2	202/263/345	143	255	19	3	28%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Jaylin Davis 2022 · MLB	28	42→47	56→50	48→45	41	222/291/408	187	300	24	10	34%	7%	96	+1.0	195/272/323	128	296	14	7	36%	8%	70	-0.9	176/260/292	116	270	12	4	37%	9%	55	-1.2
✕Jon Kemmer 2019 · AAA	28	42→52	51→55	46→50	40	215/280/380	164	300	19	8	34%	7%	85	+0.2	229/304/410	181	309	23	6	32%	7%	101	+1.4	222/310/419	197	293	27	1	32%	8%	103	+1.1
✕Brandon Allen 2014 · MLB	28	42→49	51→55	52→50	45	219/280/385	167	275	19	7	28%	8%	86	+0.3	213/277/348	135	267	15	5	25%	8%	76	-0.4	200/267/319	120	248	14	3	25%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2024 · MLB	27	42→45	50	45→50	44	216/288/369	153	282	18	6	30%	8%	86	+0.3	191/259/345	154	252	19	4	31%	7%	70	-0.9	164/231/315	151	210	19	1	32%	6%	49	-1.5
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	41→42	54→55	51→55	46	222/286/397	175	270	23	14	27%	8%	91	+0.7	208/273/352	144	285	18	22	32%	8%	76	-0.4	204/282/368	164	260	22	25	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Billy McKinney 2024 · MLB	29	42→52	51→60	51→45	48	217/294/375	158	277	19	6	28%	9%	89	+0.5	217/289/349	132	283	15	7	27%	8%	81	-0.1	203/276/319	115	266	12	6	27%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Dalton Kelly 2022 · AAA	27	43→53	51→45	51→50	46	218/296/374	156	296	20	16	32%	9%	90	+0.6	205/279/351	146	306	17	13	36%	8%	78	-0.3	173/254/300	127	268	16	10	39%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Tyler Colvin 2014 · MLB	28	43→53	51→60	50→45	40	223/270/387	164	289	18	8	29%	6%	82	+0.0	207/248/322	115	294	10	7	32%	5%	58	-1.7	192/224/287	96	280	5	3	33%	4%	39	-1.7
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→44	51→55	49→40	45	220/282/377	157	268	20	6	26%	7%	85	+0.2	213/271/374	161	270	20	6	28%	7%	80	-0.1	203/262/367	164	253	21	4	29%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	42→43	52→55	46→45	47	218/293/384	166	281	21	8	30%	9%	91	+0.7	210/280/373	163	274	22	9	31%	8%	84	+0.1	168/241/306	138	201	23	6	30%	8%	52	-0.7

MJ Melendez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps