MJ Melendez — OGILVIE

MJ MelendezLF Syracuse Mets

Age 27 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 3.087 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION421 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 5382vR 92

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP235

ISO182

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

4811.1%

xAVG

100.212

POWER50

Barrel%

559.0

Avg EV

8991.8

Bat Spd

6372.8

EYE45

Chase%

8025.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 505 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

431

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

174

293

▶▶R

ISO

055

201

▶▶R

BABIP

207

234

▶R

20.3%

27.4%

◀◀L

BB%

1.4%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.087 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-1M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	128	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2018	19	A	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	125	+14	-2	—	—	+10	2.3
2019	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	61	-19	-1	—	—	+9	-1.1
2021	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	150	44	4	3	13	32	39	0	1	2	293	418	620	1.038	327	310	21	17	441	184	+18	-1	—	—	+4	2.2
2021	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	347	298	85	18	0	28	43	76	1	2	4	285	377	628	1.005	342	286	22	12	425	174	+30	-1	—	—	+8	3.7
2022	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	534	460	100	21	3	18	66	131	1	2	3	217	317	393	710	176	258	25	12	316	100	-0	-1	-17	+11	+12	0.4
2022	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	91	78	13	4	0	2	13	22	0	3	0	167	286	295	581	128	204	24	14	271	70	-3	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.2
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	88	-7	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.9
2025	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	65	60	5	2	0	1	3	23	2	0	0	83	154	167	321	83	111	35	5	154	-9	-8	+0	+1	-7	+1	-1.3
2025	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	480	433	113	33	3	20	39	135	3	20	8	261	326	490	816	229	329	28	8	354	126	+15	+1	—	—	+10	2.6
2025	26	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	65	55	9	2	0	0	9	13	0	0	1	164	281	200	481	36	209	20	14	234	44	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1652	1465	315	75	11	52	166	437	9	12	11	215	299	388	686	173	266	26	10	306	93	-14	-2	-33	-7	+36	-2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	178	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	174	258	275	533	101	308	43	8	233	44	-13	+0	—	—	+4	-0.9
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	434	78	17	7	13	28	192	4	4	6	180	236	341	577	161	267	41	6	249	55	-25	-2	—	—	+10	-1.7
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	382	41	15	1	7	25	229	5	7	5	107	172	207	379	99	218	55	6	173	3	-48	-1	—	—	+9	-4.1
2021	22	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	160	38	4	3	9	22	47	0	1	2	237	330	469	798	231	266	26	12	341	117	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2021	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	347	311	73	14	0	23	30	90	1	2	4	235	304	502	806	267	239	26	9	342	118	+7	-1	—	—	+8	1.4
2022	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	534	460	102	22	3	19	66	131	1	2	3	222	321	407	727	185	258	25	12	318	101	+1	-1	-17	+11	+12	0.5
2022	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	91	82	10	3	0	1	9	28	0	3	0	122	209	195	404	73	168	31	10	196	19	-9	+1	—	—	+2	-0.6
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	128	30	5	17	62	170	3	6	4	240	323	411	734	171	311	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.2
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	413	87	24	3	18	35	113	3	4	4	211	277	414	691	203	241	25	8	301	90	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	65	60	5	2	0	1	3	23	2	0	0	83	154	167	321	83	111	35	5	156	-8	-8	+0	+1	-7	+1	-1.3
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	480	443	85	25	3	13	29	161	3	20	8	192	246	350	596	158	259	34	6	260	62	-22	+1	—	—	+10	-1.1
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	178	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	174	258	275	533	101	315	43	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	434	78	17	7	13	28	192	4	4	6	180	236	341	577	161	277	41	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A RAW	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	382	41	15	1	7	25	229	5	7	5	107	172	207	379	99	227	55	6	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	531	471	110	17	3	32	52	137	1	3	6	234	311	486	797	253	252	26	10	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	531	448	129	22	3	41	75	115	1	3	6	288	391	625	1.016	337	294	22	14	430	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	625	542	113	25	3	21	75	159	1	5	3	208	306	382	688	173	249	25	12	300	89	-8	-0	-17	+11	+14	-0.1
2022	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	625	538	113	25	3	20	79	153	1	5	3	210	312	379	691	169	250	24	13	309	89	-8	-0	-17	+11	+14	-0.1
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	128	30	5	17	62	170	3	6	4	240	323	411	734	171	317	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.2
2023	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+13	-0.2
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	413	87	24	3	18	35	113	3	4	4	211	277	414	691	203	245	25	8	301	90	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	90	-5	-1	-7	-5	+10	-0.8
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	563	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	569	151	248	34	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	610	548	127	37	3	21	51	171	5	20	9	232	303	425	728	193	293	28	8	320	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	198	176	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	176	258	278	536	102	308	43	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	472	437	78	17	7	13	28	192	4	4	6	178	236	339	575	160	267	41	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	386	41	15	1	7	25	229	5	7	5	106	172	205	377	98	218	55	6	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	531	473	110	17	3	32	52	137	1	3	6	233	311	484	795	252	248	26	10	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	625	544	113	25	3	21	75	159	1	5	3	208	306	381	686	173	245	25	12	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	532	128	30	5	17	62	170	3	6	4	241	323	412	734	171	311	28	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	410	87	24	3	18	35	113	3	4	4	212	277	417	694	205	241	25	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	564	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	568	151	241	34	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	602	532	128	30	5	17	62	170	3	6	4	241	323	412	734	171	311	28	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	451	410	87	24	3	18	35	113	3	4	4	212	277	417	694	205	241	25	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	610	564	102	31	3	16	36	206	5	20	9	181	237	332	568	151	241	34	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	NYM	—	421	374	75	19	3	19	40	138	5	5	7	201	286	420	706	219	257	33	10	305	92	-4	-2	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYM	—	144	120	23	5	1	4	17	50	5	0	1	192	317	350	667	158	284	35	12	303	92	-1	-0	+0	-5	+3	-0.3
YTD	27	AAA RAW	NYM	—	277	244	66	18	2	22	33	73	0	5	6	270	357	631	989	361	295	26	12	422	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	MLB RAW	NYM	—	144	120	23	5	1	4	17	50	5	0	1	192	317	350	667	158	284	35	12	303	91	-1	-0	+0	-2	+3	-0.0
ROS	27	AAA MLE	NYM	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		242	30	10	290	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		235	30	10	279	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYM	—	154	129	24	5	1	4	18	53	5	0	1	186	309	333	643	147	274	34	12	302	92	-1	-0	+0	-2	+3	-0.0
TOT	27	AAA MLE	NYM	—	431	383	76	19	3	19	41	141	5	5	7	198	284	413	697	214	254	33	10	304	92	-4	-2	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	572	513	107	25	4	22	48	178	6	8	5	209	284	402	686	193	266	31	8	302	91	-6	-0	-1	-6	+12	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	560	502	103	24	3	22	48	175	5	7	5	205	281	396	677	191	264	31	9	300	89	-7	-1	-1	-6	+12	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	501	448	91	21	3	19	43	158	5	6	4	203	280	391	671	188	262	32	9	297	87	-8	-0	-2	-5	+11	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	572	513	105	24	4	22	48	178	6	8	5	205	280	396	676	191	258	31	8	291	91	-6	-0	-1	-6	+12	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	560	502	101	23	3	22	48	175	5	7	5	201	277	390	668	189	257	31	9	289	89	-7	-1	-1	-6	+12	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	501	448	90	21	3	19	43	158	5	6	4	201	278	388	667	188	255	32	9	286	87	-8	-0	-2	-5	+11	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3295	2937	612	143	21	115	306	951	25	33	25	208	288	389	677	180	263	29	9	297	78	-35	-3	-37	-24	+71	-2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	121	28	4	23	60	188	5	7	5	209	288	390	679	181	263	29	9	297	78	-7	-1	-7	-5	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5551	4988	992	234	37	190	469	1806	42	74	53	199	273	375	648	176	264	33	8	284	78	-35	-3	-37	-24	+71	-2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	115	27	4	22	55	211	5	9	6	197	272	370	642	173	261	32	8	284	78	-7	-1	-7	-5	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	7.2	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.9
/162	664	27	0	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#3Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	4.2	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
/162	664	37	3	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Logan Morrisonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,713 PA	5.6	3,713	137	23	239	325	427	-58	-79	1.7	2.6
/162	664	24	4	-10.4	-14.1	0.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	3,962	138	45	210	286	392	-42	-80	1.4	1.4
/162	664	23	7	-7.1	-13.5	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
MJ Melendez (OGILVIE)	27	45	50	50	45	192/268/382	190	242	21	9	31%	8%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brandon Allen 2013 · MLB	27	42→47	53→55	49→50	47	219/297/394	175	290	20	8	31%	9%	95	+0.9	220/283/371	151	277	17	6	26%	8%	84	+0.1	215/279/360	145	265	16	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Billy McKinney 2022 · MLB	27	41→51	51→55	49→45	50	214/290/384	170	264	18	5	26%	9%	89	+0.5	216/297/368	152	290	17	6	30%	9%	88	+0.5	211/297/352	141	286	17	4	31%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→49	52→55	47→45	41	213/276/383	169	279	20	4	31%	7%	84	+0.2	206/288/364	158	300	20	10	36%	9%	85	+0.2	177/277/321	144	259	20	11	38%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB	27	46	49→55	49→45	45	235/292/388	153	295	17	9	26%	7%	91	+0.6	234/283/396	162	303	20	8	29%	6%	89	+0.5	232/276/398	167	292	21	5	28%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Andrew Lambo 2016 · MLB	27	45→49	53→60	47→45	41	234/281/413	178	292	21	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	210/261/323	113	278	10	7	27%	6%	63	-1.3	207/260/314	107	259	9	2	23%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2023 · AAA	27	42→49	49→50	52→50	43	214/277/367	153	293	16	8	32%	8%	80	-0.1	219/283/349	130	311	12	12	31%	8%	78	-0.3	218/283/331	113	310	10	13	31%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Daniel Johnson 2022 · MLB	27	41→48	50	50→55	40	211/269/368	157	296	18	11	34%	7%	78	-0.3	211/265/348	137	285	16	15	31%	6%	72	-0.7	221/274/370	149	270	18	21	25%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Ka'ai Tom 2021 · AAA	27	47→48	51→50	47→50	44	236/298/406	170	300	18	8	27%	7%	97	+1.1	197/281/324	127	276	13	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	164/260/274	110	233	12	7	33%	9%	51	-1.0
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	51→50	50→55	42	224/300/386	162	299	19	13	30%	7%	95	+0.9	224/302/369	145	295	15	20	28%	8%	91	+0.6	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	52→55	52→45	43	223/296/394	172	291	20	7	30%	7%	95	+0.9	221/300/383	162	292	19	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	173/279/321	148	220	19	4	30%	11%	72	-0.2
✕Derek Fisher 2022 · MLB	28	44→50	49→55	48→55	47	222/299/373	151	302	17	11	31%	10%	91	+0.6	205/271/332	127	308	13	8	35%	8%	70	-0.8	120/195/223	103	187	12	0	42%	8%	15	-0.9
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	42→48	52→55	44→50	52	220/308/391	171	265	20	8	25%	10%	99	+1.2	220/322/399	179	275	23	5	28%	12%	105	+1.7	208/314/396	188	250	26	2	28%	11%	99	+0.6
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	41→49	49→50	46→50	37	209/277/360	151	290	17	7	33%	6%	80	-0.2	204/269/348	144	305	16	7	37%	5%	74	-0.6	176/238/308	133	273	15	4	40%	4%	51	-1.5
✕Greg Bird 2021 · MLB	28	43→48	51→55	48→30	51	221/306/384	163	278	19	6	27%	10%	96	+1.0	205/276/351	146	267	18	4	29%	8%	77	-0.3	185/259/322	138	237	17	1	29%	8%	62	-0.8
✕Nick Williams 2021 · MLB	27	46→56	51→55	48→45	41	233/293/391	159	302	19	6	29%	6%	93	+0.8	227/281/360	133	307	14	12	29%	6%	80	-0.1	210/252/314	105	293	10	15	31%	3%	56	-0.4
✕Zach Reks 2021 · AAA	27	47→41	50	47→40	44	234/300/387	153	317	19	6	31%	8%	94	+0.9	240/310/406	166	342	18	5	33%	8%	102	+1.5	200/283/339	139	293	15	1	34%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Nicky Delmonico 2019 · MLB	27	46→47	48→50	46→45	49	231/302/379	148	282	15	5	24%	8%	93	+0.8	221/289/353	132	288	13	6	26%	8%	82	-0.0	219/283/349	130	292	12	4	28%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	41→43	54→55	51→55	46	222/286/395	174	270	23	14	27%	8%	91	+0.7	210/275/355	145	288	18	22	32%	8%	78	-0.3	207/286/372	166	264	22	25	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	55	52→50	42	225/287/412	187	306	23	12	34%	8%	95	+1.0	218/281/379	161	300	18	11	32%	7%	85	+0.2	200/265/356	156	273	16	8	32%	8%	71	-0.7
●Jeff Bailey 2006 · AAA	27	43→49	51→50	49→45	44	223/297/383	160	284	20	9	28%	7%	93	+0.8	224/304/375	151	280	17	6	25%	9%	93	+0.8	230/314/377	146	281	16	3	23%	8%	94	+0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps