MJ Melendez — OGILVIE

MJ MelendezLF New York Mets

Age 27 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 3.087 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION239 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -563vR 89

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .291 / .400

PA159

HR6

K%30

BB%9

BABIP269

ISO190

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

4811.1%

xwOBA

440.301

POWER50

Barrel%

559.0

Avg EV

8991.8

Bat Spd

6372.8

EYE45

Chase%

8025.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 505 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

431

—

wRC+

-9

▶▶R

wOBA

174

293

▶▶R

ISO

055

201

▶▶R

BABIP

207

234

▶R

20.3%

27.4%

◀◀L

BB%

1.4%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.087 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.7M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	198	178	31	5	2	3	16	86	4	4	2	174	258	275	533	101	315	43	8	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Lexington Legends	—	472	435	74	16	6	13	27	192	4	4	6	170	225	324	549	154	258	41	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	384	46	16	2	9	23	223	5	7	5	120	180	242	422	122	237	53	5	182	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	2 teams	—	531	470	115	16	3	39	53	140	1	3	6	245	323	540	863	296	255	26	10	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	2 teams	—	531	448	129	22	3	41	75	115	1	3	6	288	391	625	1.016	337	294	22	14	430	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	2 teams	—	625	542	114	25	3	21	75	160	1	5	3	210	307	384	691	173	253	26	12	302	89	-8	-0	-17	+11	+18	0.4
2022	23	MLB	2 teams	—	625	538	113	25	3	20	79	153	1	5	3	210	312	379	691	169	250	24	13	309	95	-4	-0	-17	+11	+18	0.8
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	129	31	5	17	62	170	3	6	4	242	324	415	739	173	320	28	10	322	104	+3	-0	-10	-6	+17	0.4
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+17	0.2
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	451	413	88	24	3	18	35	113	3	4	4	213	279	416	696	203	248	25	8	303	90	-5	-1	-7	-5	+13	-0.5
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	86	-7	-1	-7	-5	+13	-0.7
2025	26	AAA	3 teams	—	610	561	100	30	4	19	38	205	5	20	9	178	237	348	584	169	236	34	6	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	3 teams	—	610	548	127	37	3	21	51	171	5	20	9	232	303	425	728	193	293	28	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	NYM	—	239	207	40	9	2	10	25	79	5	1	3	193	295	401	696	208	252	33	10	299	87	-4	-1	+0	-3	+7	-0.0
YTD	27	MLB	NYM	—	239	204	43	10	2	11	28	74	5	1	3	211	321	441	762	230	267	31	12	336	115	+4	-1	+0	-3	+7	0.7
ROS	27	MLB	NYM	100%	159	142	30	7	1	6	14	48	2	2	1	211	291	400	691	190	265	30	9	301	89	-2	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.1
ROS	27	MLB	NYM	100%	159	142	30	7	1	6	14	48	2	2	1	211	291	401	693	190	264	30	9	291	81	-3	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.1
FULL	27	MLB	NYM	—	398	349	70	16	3	16	39	127	7	3	4	201	294	401	695	201	260	32	10	296	85	-7	-1	+0	-4	+11	-0.1
TOT	27	MLB	NYM	—	398	349	70	16	3	16	39	127	7	3	4	200	293	401	694	200	259	32	10	300	88	-6	-1	+0	-4	+11	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	NYM	100%	572	511	106	24	4	21	49	175	7	8	4	207	286	393	679	186	266	31	9	300	88	-8	+0	-1	-6	+16	0.2
2028	29	MLB	NYM	100%	560	500	102	24	3	20	48	172	7	7	4	204	283	384	667	180	264	31	9	298	86	-9	-0	-1	-6	+16	-0.0
2029	30	MLB	NYM	100%	549	490	99	23	3	19	47	170	7	6	3	202	281	378	659	176	262	31	9	295	84	-10	+0	-2	-6	+16	-0.2
2027	28	MLB	NYM	100%	572	511	106	24	4	21	49	175	7	8	4	207	286	393	679	186	265	31	9	290	80	-13	+0	-1	-6	+16	-0.3
2028	29	MLB	NYM	100%	560	500	102	24	3	20	48	172	7	7	4	204	283	384	667	180	264	31	9	288	79	-13	-0	-1	-6	+16	-0.5
2029	30	MLB	NYM	100%	549	490	99	23	3	19	47	170	7	6	3	202	281	378	659	176	262	31	9	285	76	-15	+0	-2	-6	+16	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3492	3108	652	153	22	118	324	1002	32	35	23	210	291	387	678	177	266	29	9	297	85	-59	-2	-37	-26	+99	-2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	121	28	4	22	60	187	6	7	4	209	290	385	675	176	265	29	9	297	85	-11	-0	-7	-5	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	5748	5159	1034	241	39	205	487	1854	49	76	51	200	276	381	657	181	264	32	8	287	78	-144	-5	-37	-44	+163	-6.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	116	27	4	23	55	210	6	9	6	199	275	377	652	178	262	32	8	287	78	-16	-1	-4	-5	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	198	168	44	8	3	4	26	60	4	4	2	262	374	417	790	155	385	30	13	357	132	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2018	19	A	Lexington Legends	—	472	419	105	26	9	19	43	143	4	4	6	251	326	492	818	241	327	30	9	353	128	+15	-2	—	—	+13	2.7
2019	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	419	363	59	23	2	9	44	165	5	7	5	163	262	311	573	149	259	39	11	259	56	-21	-1	—	—	+12	-1.0
2021	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	150	44	4	3	13	32	39	0	1	2	293	418	620	1.038	327	310	21	17	441	195	+20	-1	—	—	+5	2.5
2021	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	347	298	85	18	0	28	43	76	1	2	4	285	377	628	1.005	342	286	22	12	425	183	+33	-1	—	—	+10	4.2
2022	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	534	460	100	21	3	18	66	131	1	2	3	217	317	393	710	176	258	25	12	316	100	-0	-1	-17	+11	+15	0.8
2022	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	91	78	13	4	0	2	13	22	0	3	0	167	286	295	581	128	204	24	14	271	66	-4	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	602	533	125	29	5	16	62	170	3	6	4	235	318	398	715	163	311	28	10	319	102	+1	-0	-10	-6	+17	0.2
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	451	412	85	23	3	17	35	113	3	4	4	206	273	400	673	194	241	25	8	298	86	-7	-1	-7	-5	+13	-0.7
2025	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	65	60	5	2	0	1	3	23	2	0	0	83	154	167	321	83	111	35	5	154	-24	-9	+0	+1	-7	+2	-1.3
2025	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	480	433	113	33	3	20	39	135	3	20	8	261	326	490	816	229	329	28	8	354	129	+16	+1	—	—	+14	3.1
2025	26	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	65	55	9	2	0	0	9	13	0	0	1	164	281	200	481	36	209	20	14	234	37	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1652	1465	315	75	11	52	166	437	9	12	11	215	299	388	686	173	266	26	10	306	92	-15	-2	-33	-7	+47	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#3Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	7	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	37	3	219	314	462	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Logan Morrisonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,713 PA	9	3,713	137	23	239	325	427	-58	-79	1.7	2.6
	/162	664	24	4	239	325	427	-10.4	-14.1	0.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	3,835	129	41	210	288	388	-41	-80	1.1	1.2
	/162	664	22	7	210	288	388	-7.1	-13.9	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
MJ Melendez (OGILVIE)	27	45	50	50	45	200/293/401	200	259	16	3	32%	10%	88	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy McKinney 2022 · MLB	27	41→51	52→55	49→45	50	216/292/393	176	266	19	5	26%	9%	92	+1.2	218/298/374	156	292	18	6	30%	9%	89	+1.0	214/296/366	152	268	19	6	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Brandon Allen 2013 · MLB	27	43→47	53→55	49→50	46	220/297/398	178	292	20	8	31%	9%	95	+1.4	219/279/373	154	279	18	6	27%	8%	81	+0.4	212/274/358	146	266	17	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB	27	46	49→55	49→45	45	235/292/388	153	295	17	9	26%	7%	89	+1.0	234/284/399	165	302	20	8	29%	6%	89	+1.0	232/276/398	167	292	21	5	28%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	50→55	49→50	45	210/293/369	158	277	17	6	30%	8%	86	+0.8	205/285/335	130	292	14	10	33%	8%	74	-0.1	187/270/313	126	271	14	10	34%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Tyler Colvin 2013 · MLB	27	43→52	53→60	52→45	40	224/265/405	181	278	19	7	27%	5%	82	+0.5	209/255/341	132	291	12	7	31%	6%	61	-1.0	193/237/298	105	282	8	5	33%	5%	39	-1.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	52→50	50→55	42	223/298/390	167	299	20	13	31%	7%	94	+1.3	223/301/370	147	293	16	20	28%	8%	89	+1.0	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2023 · AAA	27	41→51	48→55	52→50	42	209/271/355	146	291	16	8	33%	8%	72	-0.2	218/281/345	127	314	12	12	32%	8%	74	-0.1	221/287/335	114	319	10	13	32%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	40	53→55	49→50	46	212/285/390	178	284	21	12	32%	9%	88	+0.9	221/294/375	154	351	16	13	38%	9%	87	+0.8	196/277/339	144	353	15	13	45%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Nicky Delmonico 2019 · MLB	27	46→47	49→55	46→45	48	231/301/383	152	282	16	5	24%	8%	92	+1.2	220/286/353	133	288	13	6	27%	8%	79	+0.3	220/281/353	134	295	12	4	28%	7%	78	+0.0
✕Daniel Johnson 2022 · MLB	27	43→50	53→55	50→55	39	221/276/395	174	306	21	11	34%	6%	85	+0.7	219/273/375	156	290	20	15	31%	6%	79	+0.3	234/288/409	175	280	23	21	25%	6%	91	+0.8
✕Luke Allen 2006 · AAA	27	44→43	52→50	53→45	46	230/282/394	164	265	20	13	22%	7%	87	+0.8	239/287/367	128	284	14	7	20%	6%	82	+0.5	247/293/355	109	293	11	2	19%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Grant Witherspoon 2023 · AAA	26	44→45	52→50	49→50	41	229/281/390	162	298	20	13	30%	6%	85	+0.7	206/272/344	138	300	16	12	35%	8%	70	-0.3	173/251/297	124	259	16	11	38%	9%	46	-0.8
✕Derek Fisher 2022 · MLB	28	45→52	50→55	48→55	47	226/301/381	156	304	18	11	31%	9%	92	+1.2	207/270/343	136	309	15	8	36%	7%	69	-0.4	124/197/248	125	185	17	0	43%	8%	11	-0.8
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→47	50	49→50	45	225/285/378	153	293	17	9	29%	8%	84	+0.6	224/292/350	126	317	12	10	31%	8%	79	+0.3	191/272/253	61	319	0	9	36%	9%	42	-0.4
✕Clint Frazier 2022 · MLB	27	44→45	51→55	48→50	53	223/318/386	163	288	18	7	28%	11%	101	+1.8	199/286/319	120	299	12	11	35%	9%	70	-0.3	180/265/284	104	278	11	12	36%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	53→55	46→45	47	217/298/391	173	286	22	8	31%	10%	93	+1.3	214/285/396	182	277	26	9	32%	8%	89	+1.0	178/253/347	170	203	29	6	30%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Dalton Kelly 2022 · AAA	27	43→53	53→50	51→50	45	226/301/393	168	299	22	16	31%	9%	95	+1.4	203/276/350	147	308	18	13	38%	8%	74	-0.1	160/246/281	121	259	15	10	42%	9%	41	-1.4
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Zach Reks 2021 · AAA	27	46→39	51→55	47→40	43	231/296/388	158	315	20	6	32%	8%	92	+1.2	249/316/429	180	353	21	5	33%	7%	111	+2.5	209/291/365	155	308	17	1	35%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Jake Goebbert 2015 · MLB	27	44→53	52→55	48→45	51	230/307/399	169	270	20	6	23%	9%	99	+1.7	216/287/345	129	274	14	5	25%	8%	76	+0.1	203/273/313	110	260	12	3	26%	8%	61	-0.6