Isan Díaz

2B Puerto Rico

Age 31 L/R 5'10" / 201 lbs INTL HR -15%K -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

INTLExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	AAADET	135	.235/.326/.487	9	3	66	—	.184/.244/.368
2023	27	MLBDET	26	.042/.115/.042	0	0	-54	-0.4
2024	28	INTLPuerto Rico	174	.245/.351/.422	6	3	117	—
2025	29	AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs	409	.239/.348/.392	15	3	80	—	.182/.267/.319
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJMLE	31	MLBKC	274	.219/.299/.375	9	5	90	0.3
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBKC	42	.209/.289/.350	1	0	84	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2023

Bat Spd80

Avg EV43

Barrel%13

xwOBA10

Speed10

CompsEric Haase (age 31) · Jason Vosler (age 30) · Anthony Recker (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .297 / .371

PA170

HR5

K%25

BB%9

ISO156

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2023

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.197

POWER55

Barrel%

133.5

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1022.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.0M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	212	182	34	7	5	3	25	56	2	6	5	187	292	330	622	143	248	26	12	280	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	15	14	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	214	267	357	624	143	273	20	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	312	272	98	25	6	13	34	65	4	12	7	360	439	640	1.078	279	434	21	11	463	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	587	507	134	34	5	20	72	148	4	11	8	264	360	469	830	205	332	25	12	365	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	77	67	16	6	0	1	9	24	1	3	1	239	338	373	711	134	357	31	12	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Carolina Mudcats	—	455	383	86	20	0	13	62	121	5	9	3	225	340	379	719	154	287	27	14	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	155	137	28	4	4	3	15	45	0	4	0	204	283	358	641	153	278	29	10	282	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	356	294	72	19	1	10	53	95	4	10	3	245	368	418	786	173	325	27	15	350	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	132	114	31	6	1	1	13	20	2	1	1	272	357	368	725	96	312	15	10	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	201	179	31	5	2	5	19	59	2	0	3	173	260	307	567	134	224	29	9	259	67	-8	-1	-6	+2	+4	-0.9
2019	23	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	435	377	115	21	2	26	49	96	7	5	4	305	395	578	973	273	349	22	11	422	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	22	22	4	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		267	32	0	165	-1	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	278	238	46	9	0	4	34	73	1	1	1	193	296	282	577	88	256	26	12	267	61	-13	-0	-5	+1	+6	-1.0
2021	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	116	103	25	8	1	5	11	30	2	0	2	243	328	485	813	243	294	26	9	357	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	291	78	12	2	23	44	88	4	7	2	268	372	560	932	292	304	26	13	404	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	75	63	11	3	0	1	11	14	0	0	2	175	297	270	567	95	208	19	15	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	26	24	1	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	42	115	42	157		67	35	8	88	-54	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
2023	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	135	119	28	3	0	9	16	43	0	3	0	235	326	487	813	252	284	32	12	357	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	174	147	36	2	3	6	24	40	0	3	0	245	351	422	773	177	291	23	14	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	154	132	25	1	0	7	19	38	1	0	0	189	296	356	652	167	205	25	12	294	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	70	57	18	2	0	4	11	8	1	2	2	316	435	561	996	246	304	11	16	431	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	185	158	40	5	0	4	25	27	1	1	3	253	359	361	719	108	283	15	14	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	527	463	82	14	2	9	55	148	3	1	4	177	268	274	542	97	235	28	10	251	56	-28	-1	-11	+4	+11	-2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	212	191	24	5	3	2	16	81	2	6	5	126	201	215	416	89	192	38	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	312	285	72	17	4	9	21	94	4	12	7	253	313	435	748	182	335	30	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	587	529	108	28	4	13	50	197	4	11	8	204	278	346	624	142	287	34	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	455	405	71	15	0	11	40	174	5	9	3	175	258	294	552	119	260	38	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	155	141	24	4	3	2	11	55	0	4	0	170	230	284	514	113	255	35	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	356	315	72	22	1	8	32	110	4	10	3	229	308	381	689	152	316	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	201	179	31	5	2	5	19	59	2	0	3	173	260	307	567	134	224	29	9	267	67	-8	-1	-6	+2	+4	-0.9
2019	23	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	435	394	95	17	2	18	32	130	7	5	4	241	309	431	741	190	308	30	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	22	22	4	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		267	32	0	167	-1	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	278	245	48	10	0	4	28	73	1	1	1	196	281	286	567	90	256	26	10	259	61	-13	-0	-5	+1	+6	-1.0
2021	25	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	116	106	22	7	1	4	8	37	2	0	2	208	276	406	682	198	269	32	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	340	304	66	10	2	16	31	107	4	7	2	217	298	421	719	204	277	31	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	26	24	1	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	42	115	42	157		67	35	8	89	-54	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
2023	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	135	125	23	2	0	7	10	52	0	3	0	184	244	368	612	184	246	39	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	154	137	20	1	0	5	14	45	1	0	0	146	230	263	493	117	162	29	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	70	61	16	2	0	3	7	10	1	2	2	262	348	443	790	180	242	14	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	227	205	25	5	3	2	17	86	2	6	5	122	196	205	401	83	193	38	7	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	227	196	37	9	5	3	26	59	2	6	5	189	290	332	622	143	250	26	11	280	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	312	285	72	17	4	9	21	94	4	12	7	253	313	435	748	182	342	30	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	312	272	98	25	6	13	34	65	4	12	7	360	439	640	1.078	279	434	21	11	463	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	664	598	121	31	4	15	57	222	5	14	9	202	277	343	620	140	290	33	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	664	574	150	40	5	21	81	172	5	14	9	261	358	458	816	197	335	26	12	360	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	455	405	71	15	0	11	40	174	5	9	3	175	258	294	552	119	267	38	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	455	383	86	20	0	13	62	121	5	9	3	225	340	379	719	154	287	27	14	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	643	571	124	33	6	14	55	208	6	15	4	217	293	370	662	152	310	32	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	643	545	131	29	6	14	81	160	6	15	4	240	345	393	738	152	310	25	13	328	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	573	127	22	4	24	51	190	9	5	7	222	295	400	695	178	286	30	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	636	556	146	26	4	31	68	155	9	5	7	263	352	491	843	228	310	24	11	370	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	22	22	4	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		267	32	0	167	-1	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	22	22	4	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		267	32	0	165	-1	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	351	70	17	1	8	36	110	3	1	3	199	279	322	601	123	263	28	9	267	67	-15	-1	-5	+1	+9	-1.1
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	394	341	71	17	1	9	45	103	3	1	3	208	305	343	648	135	267	26	11	293	67	-15	-1	-5	+1	+9	-1.1
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	415	371	82	12	3	20	38	131	4	7	4	221	300	431	732	210	281	32	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	415	354	89	15	2	24	55	102	4	7	4	251	358	508	867	257	284	25	13	379	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	161	149	24	2	0	7	12	61	0	3	0	161	224	315	539	154	210	38	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	161	143	29	3	0	9	18	52	0	3	0	203	292	413	705	210	244	32	11	314	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL MLE	Puerto Rico	—	174	147	36	2	3	6	24	40	0	3	0	245	351	422	773	177	291	23	14	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL RAW	Puerto Rico	—	174	147	36	2	3	6	24	40	0	3	0	245	351	422	773	177	291	23	14	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	409	364	63	5	0	14	38	100	3	3	5	173	257	302	559	129	194	24	9	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	409	347	83	8	0	15	55	73	3	3	5	239	348	392	740	153	261	18	13	333	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	227	206	25	5	3	2	17	86	2	6	5	121	196	204	400	83	192	38	7	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	312	284	72	17	4	9	21	94	4	12	7	254	313	437	750	183	335	30	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	664	597	121	31	4	15	57	222	5	14	9	203	277	343	621	141	287	33	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	455	407	71	15	0	11	40	174	5	9	3	174	258	292	550	118	260	38	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	643	577	124	33	6	14	55	208	6	15	4	215	293	366	658	151	297	32	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	571	127	22	4	24	51	190	9	5	7	222	295	401	696	179	281	30	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	22	22	4	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		267	32	0	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	352	70	17	1	8	36	110	3	1	3	199	279	321	601	122	260	28	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	415	370	82	12	3	20	38	131	4	7	4	222	300	432	733	211	277	32	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	161	148	24	2	0	7	12	61	0	3	0	162	224	318	541	155	217	38	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	409	365	63	5	0	14	38	100	3	3	5	173	257	301	558	129	187	24	9	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	29	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	409	365	63	5	0	14	38	100	3	3	5	173	257	301	558	129	187	24	9	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	0%	274	244	53	9	1	9	25	70	3	5	1	219	299	375	674	156	266	26	9	301	90	-3	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	27%	158	142	30	5	1	5	14	41	1	1	1	213	292	361	653	148	261	26	9	293	84	-3	-0	-4	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	27%	42	38	7	1	0	1	4	11	0	0	0	209	289	350	639	141	259	26	10	288	84	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	569	501	89	15	2	10	59	159	3	1	4	178	268	275	543	98	235	28	10	253	67	-29	-1	-12	+4	+12	-2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	101	17	2	11	67	182	3	1	5	177	266	271	537	94	234	28	10	253	67	-33	-2	-13	+5	+14	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4840	4333	882	172	30	140	419	1507	44	82	49	204	280	354	634	150	273	31	9	267	67	-33	-1	-15	+6	+19	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	119	23	4	19	56	202	6	11	7	204	281	356	637	151	274	31	9	267	67	-25	-1	-11	+4	+14	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 154 PAwOBA .288 → .215 (−73)K% 24.7% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.68%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.34%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.94%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.60%
Singles /BIP	18.09%	÷1.108	×0.930	×0.984	×0.982	14.66%
Doubles /BIP	1.06%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.984	×0.982	0.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.984	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.45%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .288 → .215; ISO .167 → .115; BABIP .205 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 70 PAwOBA .426 → .332 (−93)K% 11.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.43%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	13.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.71%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×0.958	9.95%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.870	—	×0.958	1.19%
Singles /BIP	24.49%	÷1.034	×0.920	×0.961	×0.958	20.05%
Doubles /BIP	4.08%	÷0.984	×0.840	×0.961	×0.958	3.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.961	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.16%	÷1.077	×0.800	—	×0.958	5.81%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .426 → .332; ISO .246 → .191; BABIP .304 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 135 PAwOBA .342 → .266 (−76)K% 31.9% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.85%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	38.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.37%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.965	×0.930	×0.962	×1.003	19.59%
Doubles /BIP	3.95%	÷1.156	×0.830	×0.962	×1.003	2.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.962	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.84%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×1.003	9.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .342 → .266; ISO .252 → .188; BABIP .284 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 340 PAwOBA .394 → .314 (−80)K% 25.9% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.88%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	31.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.94%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.24%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.13%
Singles /BIP	20.20%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.985	×1.018	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.91%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.985	×1.018	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.985	×1.018	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	11.33%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.018	8.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .394 → .314; ISO .292 → .215; BABIP .304 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 116 PAwOBA .347 → .287 (−61)K% 25.9% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.86%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	31.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.48%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.80%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.67%
Singles /BIP	15.07%	÷0.971	×0.930	×0.972	×1.033	14.48%
Doubles /BIP	10.96%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.972	×1.033	9.78%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.109	×0.920	×0.972	×1.033	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	6.85%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.59%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .347 → .287; ISO .243 → .195; BABIP .294 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 435 PAwOBA .408 → .320 (−88)K% 22.1% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.07%	÷0.950	×1.290	—	—	29.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.57%	÷1.085	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.27%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.66%
Singles /BIP	23.49%	÷0.971	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.47%	÷0.952	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	6.34%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	9.25%	÷1.100	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.89%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .408 → .320; ISO .273 → .199; BABIP .349 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 356 PAwOBA .342 → .304 (−37)K% 26.7% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.69%	÷1.052	×1.220	—	—	30.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.33%	÷1.122	×0.680	—	×1.042	9.04%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.98%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷1.050	×0.920	×1.017	×1.042	19.59%
Doubles /BIP	9.55%	÷0.875	×0.910	×1.017	×1.042	10.53%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.017	×1.042	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷1.041	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.02%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 75, 3B 80, K 110, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .342 → .304; ISO .173 → .169; BABIP .325 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 155 PAwOBA .276 → .234 (−43)K% 29.0% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.03%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	35.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.48%	÷1.054	×0.900	×1.035	×1.050	17.15%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.906	×0.810	×1.035	×1.050	4.23%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.031	×0.810	×1.035	×1.050	3.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.26%	÷0.952	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.80%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .276 → .234; ISO .153 → .130; BABIP .278 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.0	691	16	4	195	283	318	+2	-7	-0.4	-0.4
/162	664	15	4	+2.4	-6.9	-0.4	pk7: -0
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#3Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#4Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0
#5Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2
#6Jackie Hernandez'65-'73 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,609 PA	2.4	1,609	12	25	212*	258*	298*	+16	-16	-5.1	-3.5
/162	664	5	10	+6.6	-6.8	-2.1	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isan Díaz (OGILVIE)	31	35	55	45	55	217/297/371	155	266	5	3	25%	9%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	51→50	43→45	47	217/290/374	157	283	19	6	30%	9%	88	+0.4	208/275/364	156	281	19	6	32%	8%	80	-0.2	192/268/338	145	255	18	3	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	48	227/295/393	167	269	18	5	23%	8%	93	+0.8	214/281/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	82	-0.0	161/216/284	123	202	11	4	26%	6%	38	-0.8
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	42→43	52→55	53→50	44	221/281/388	168	277	20	12	28%	7%	87	+0.4	228/294/417	189	303	24	9	32%	8%	99	+1.3	202/264/392	189	261	26	2	33%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41→40	55→65	47→45	41	221/283/406	185	271	23	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	203/267/337	134	257	16	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	166/234/261	95	210	12	0	27%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	51→60	43→40	50	227/291/386	159	251	19	3	19%	8%	91	+0.6	207/282/341	134	249	15	3	22%	9%	77	-0.3	183/267/307	124	222	15	0	24%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→47	50→55	43→40	53	241/325/403	161	293	17	8	23%	10%	107	+1.8	206/298/335	129	283	12	6	29%	11%	82	-0.0	175/275/285	109	248	10	2	31%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Chris Herrmann 2019 · MLB	31	43→51	51→50	54→50	52	220/307/378	158	281	19	7	28%	11%	95	+0.9	219/294/360	141	310	15	5	32%	9%	85	+0.2	189/261/311	122	283	13	0	36%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Tom Murphy 2022 · MLB	31	44→38	55→65	47→45	51	230/315/408	179	296	24	4	30%	11%	105	+1.7	247/326/430	183	325	22	5	29%	10%	114	+2.3	287/337/536	249	358	31	0	28%	6%	143	+1.2
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Rick Ankiel 2010 · MLB	31	45→48	57→65	44→50	44	240/293/436	196	276	25	6	24%	6%	103	+1.5	233/290/389	156	298	17	9	27%	7%	91	+0.6	227/284/376	148	298	16	9	28%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Jose Rojas 2024 · MLB	31	41→48	52→60	49→50	44	216/268/383	167	258	20	9	25%	6%	81	-0.1	209/274/398	189	248	24	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	195/265/395	200	224	25	11	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Miguel Ojeda 2006 · MLB	31	41→45	49→45	41→45	50	212/285/353	141	242	18	5	21%	8%	80	-0.1	228/291/343	115	269	11	6	19%	7%	80	-0.2	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Cody Ransom 2008 · MLB	32	37→39	51→55	49→50	42	199/261/355	156	255	20	13	30%	7%	72	-0.7	209/271/376	167	263	20	10	28%	7%	80	-0.1	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4

Isan Díaz

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps